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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,121
  • May 10, 2010 7:08am May 10, 2010 7:08am
Hi Piccolo,

my point was actually slightly different. esuffw said he's already at high skews (1h charts) so in that line of thought 10 minutes to release his mind and body won't make much difference. It might, however, make difference to the mindset. Or at least the above helps me when I find myself in similar situation.
No argument to the possible avenues ahead, only trying to help should he chooses to fight on

Cheers
S
  • #15,122
  • May 10, 2010 7:36am May 10, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Setebos
Being in a battle myself (and having survived a few in the past) my piece of advice, fwiw.
Get off the PC for 10-15 minutes (or as long as it takes) - have a walk, drink a glass of water, do some quick physical excersice. Come back when you start feeling better. When you come back to the PC open an alternative chart source - somewhere you won't see the current result of your positions and study the charts from scratch. You will be surprised....
Hey Setebos

lol, thats excalty what I did. I stayed away for a while. Come back with fresh mind. Now there's only waiting time.

You are spot on with the outside help thing. Afterall this is my problem and I created it, so it all depends on myself.

I have planned my rescures now. I will follow the plan. My mindset is not broken. I know its not hope because I am DOING SOMTHING to change it, not sitting around and hoping. I remeber FTi once said, "you must do everything you can to win"...

I will let you guys know once my battle is done. Meanwhile, good trading to you all.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,123
  • May 10, 2010 7:45am May 10, 2010 7:45am
Quoting esuffw
Hey Setebos

lol, thats excalty what I did. I stayed away for a while. Come back with fresh mind. Now there's only waiting time.

You are spot on with the outside help thing. Afterall this is my problem and I created it, so it all depends on myself.

I have planned my rescures now. I will follow the plan. My mindset is not broken. I know its not hope because I am DOING SOMTHING to change it, not sitting around and hoping. I remeber FTi once said, "you must do everything you can to win"...

I will let you guys know once my battle is done. Meanwhile,...


Inserted Video
  • #15,124
  • May 10, 2010 7:46am May 10, 2010 7:46am
Quoting esuffw
Hey Setebos

lol, thats excalty what I did. I stayed away for a while. Come back with fresh mind. Now there's only waiting time.

You are spot on with the outside help thing. Afterall this is my problem and I created it, so it all depends on myself.

I have planned my rescures now. I will follow the plan. My mindset is not broken. I know its not hope because I am DOING SOMTHING to change it, not sitting around and hoping. I remeber FTi once said, "you must do everything you can to win"...

I will let you guys know once my battle is done....
I hope it works out for you. Good luck.
  • #15,125
  • May 10, 2010 8:45am May 10, 2010 8:45am
Hi,

Just some thoughts.

What is the aim of searching for cycles?
Observe their repetition to gain advantage.

What is the danger of this search?
Relying more on the cycles than in the price action and make our operations very mechanical.

We all know what that means.

I think/hope that nobody in this thread is still looking for the Holy Grail.

I try not to forget this advice: very often what you find is dictated by what you are looking for.

And with respect to hedging, I congratulate you guys, you are much more advanced in this than me.

Regards,

Textor

P.S.:
Anyway, my findings/thoughts with respect to the smallest Gann cycles are: 4', 12', 20', 32', 52', 205'
(205' is key)
BUT read carefully this: my findings can be a total nonsense (probably are), and if they were not, anyway, they have no practical significance (for me at least).
  • #15,126
  • Edited 9:08am May 10, 2010 8:56am | Edited 9:08am
Quoting textor
Hi,

Just some thoughts.

What is the aim of searching for cycles?
Observe their repetition to gain advantage.

What is the danger of this search?
Relying more on the cycles than in the price action and make our operations very mechanical.

We all know what that means.

I think/hope that nobody in this thread is still looking for the Holy Grail.

I try not to forget this advice: very often what you find is dictated by what you are looking for.

And with respect to hedging, I congratulate you guys, you are much more advanced in this than me.

Regards,

Textor

P.S.:
Anyway,...
Good morning...
Imho this is about..."what Fti means with-spiralls..?"....
There is not some short cut to knowledge, but maybe... something is still hidden or at least unclear..
I dont want to blindly believe (that it is..) something "mystic.., HG..." But also dont want to miss important knowledge.

And if i remember, Fti did not ever say "Yes, you understand spirals how he understands this" to anybody...
  • #15,127
  • Edited 9:15am May 10, 2010 8:56am | Edited 9:15am
Quoting textor
Hi,

I think/hope that nobody in this thread is still looking for the Holy Grail.

.
There is no Holy Grail, just ants work

Or the HG is TAF basics, dance and MM.

Not complaining, I enjoy everyone's contributions.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,128
  • May 10, 2010 9:13am May 10, 2010 9:13am
nice pic no ,

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/wp-cont...Failures-2.gif
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #15,129
  • May 10, 2010 9:24am May 10, 2010 9:24am
Quoting jest1081
zoran,
as a trader, i believe you are already accomplished, and that you have taken whatever has been presented by fti into something benificial to your trading complimented by your own personal skillset.

i believe fti refuses to discuss abt this matter coz there is really nothing that is casted in stone when it comes to it plus it will only cause more confusion, thus it may be something that needed your own exploration. as it is the current method has already caused alot of confusion.

Its pretty clear that each person here has...
I believe I understand most of what was presented but as you know, fti tends to speak in cryptic terms. I had my understanding of spiral within spiral but it's difficult to be sure if it isn't presented clearly and to the level of understanding of the audience.

It was fti's comment that started the discussion as I believe many were confused by it. What is he talking about? Pyramiding? Hedging?

Here is what started it

"Hi all,
I had been thinking for some time now,whether i should point the direction.
When I presented the MM skews.
I said fibo is minimum stable skew.
I gave you chaps hands held by that skew example.
Seems many of you didn't put your thinking cap on.
Because there is no evidence of what i expected to see, it sure isn't any where in this thread.
i say again, think.
With some hands on practise already, it should be alot easier now.
Another hint
Spiral within spiral. If you not get hint, then read "The tunnel thru the air" again. Its in there, the WD gann secret.
I will not accept any discussion on this MM topic.
If you bring up the subject, then its the end for me.

regards"

I am attempting to put my thoughts on this thread to figure this out with combined brain power. I don't have much time these days... well, it seems not as much as others.

Of course it would be much simpler for all involved if fti just spoke in plain English. Seeing that no-one came straight out to clear this topic up, I have my doubts anyone understood it so it comes back to the question of whether this method of teaching really works?
  • #15,130
  • May 10, 2010 9:38am May 10, 2010 9:38am
Start another thread, not visible to to fti, preferably away from FF, invite only those you deem suitable to contribute. Then your combined brain power might work, as the risk of appearing like an idiot is contained.

I am half joking here...hope you know what I mean. What you intended probably would not work here.

  • #15,131
  • May 10, 2010 9:51am May 10, 2010 9:51am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Start another thread, not visible to to fti, preferably away from FF, invite only those you deem suitable to contribute. Then your combined brain power might work, as the risk of appearing like an idiot is contained.

I am half joking here...hope you know what I mean. What you intended probably would not work here.

It is the only place to discuss it. The question was put to the thread by fti. If no-one got it then the expectation wasn't met. Time to rethink the approach?

The topic was MM skews, spirals within spirals - the Gann Secret, which apparently doesn't exist now. Lots of confusion

I still have some ideas - but should I present them if there's no confirmation? How will we know if I'm on the right track?

Anyway, time to return to my work... if anyone else has clues... please post otherwise this topic will just fade into the abyss.
  • #15,132
  • May 10, 2010 10:03am May 10, 2010 10:03am
I differ in point of view regarding the location of the discussion, the reason is obvious isn't it ? Just scroll back those pages.....

Take other topics for example, this is where I think aux made a very good effort with a thread discussion with charts. How come not a lot charts here ? But when I saw one of masheswara's chart some time back, I almost fell off my chair. Then there was the fana episode, there aux did a good job again.
  • #15,133
  • May 10, 2010 10:04am May 10, 2010 10:04am
You want no holds barred discussion, then it would not be here.
  • #15,134
  • May 10, 2010 10:12am May 10, 2010 10:12am
Quoting Zoran
It is the only place to discuss it. The question was put to the thread by fti. If no-one got it then the expectation wasn't met. Time to rethink the approach?

The topic was MM skews, spirals within spirals - the Gann Secret, which apparently doesn't exist now. Lots of confusion

I still have some ideas - but should I present them if there's no confirmation? How will we know if I'm on the right track?

Anyway, time to return to my work... if anyone else has clues... please post otherwise this topic will just fade into the abyss.
Zoran,

just my .02 here.

I think it's safe to say that the growth spiral is based in a fib relationship. The base spiral would be 1,1,2,3,5,8,13...........

We have gone through the maths reasoning that if your in scout 1 and 1st wave 1 attack,what would be your 1st level rescue at that based on a fib progression.

That's the base minimum level.

Now how can you increase attack level 1 and 2, ect.... outside of fib steps? Skipping levels... 1,3,13? Or taking the levels to a fib based exponent, level1/.618 level 2/.618? The spiral (fib math) is the key but at what growth exponent is up to you based on your MM as long as the spiral sequence is maintained.

But if you can't dance at the minimum, why cut yourself deeper?

fwiw,
  • #15,135
  • May 10, 2010 10:14am May 10, 2010 10:14am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
But when I saw one of masheswara's chart some time back, I almost fell off my chair. Then there was the fana episode, there aux did a good job again.
what chart u talkin about ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #15,136
  • May 10, 2010 10:14am May 10, 2010 10:14am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
I differ in point of view regarding the location of the discussion, the reason is obvious isn't it ? Just scroll back those pages.....

Take other topics for example, this is where I think aux made a very good effort with a thread discussion with charts. How come not a lot charts here ? But when I saw one of masheswara's chart some time back, I almost fell off my chair. Then there was the fana episode, there aux did a good job again.
I'm not sure what you mean. To be honest, I don't tend to read the general discussion on this thread - I'll just scroll through the pages unless fti makes a post or he responds to someone - I'll then read the original post.

If it was up to me, I would have preferred to keep this thread true to his teachings and related topics - so anyone who stumbles upon it can go through his teachings relatively uninterrupted. The "TAF lounge" would be my preference for general discussion and off-topic chit-chat. But of course, I have no say here so it's just my opinion.
  • #15,137
  • May 10, 2010 10:19am May 10, 2010 10:19am
Quoting Zoran
I'm not sure what you mean....
Hmm yeah, staying true. But in any case, I wish you luck.
  • #15,138
  • May 10, 2010 10:24am May 10, 2010 10:24am
Quoting auxesis
Zoran,

just my .02 here.

But if you can't dance at the minimum, why cut yourself deeper?

fwiw,
aux, I don't really discuss much in this thread unless I see a challenge like the one put by fti. As mentioned, he has presented what he has and I trade when I can, but whether it's good or bad, I tend to deal with it myself. It's all training and I already have the lessons, I just don't tend to discuss them as it is already in the thread.

My base skew is 1, 1, 2 and I just multiply it 5, 5, 10 or 10, 10, 20. It's as simple as that. Whatever I feel comfortable with based on many factors. When I make a mistake, I can hear fti in my head telling me where I went wrong - sometimes old ghosts come for a visit. When I'm right, I'm right.
  • #15,139
  • May 10, 2010 10:32am May 10, 2010 10:32am
Quoting Zoran
Of course it would be much simpler for all involved if fti just spoke in plain English. Seeing that no-one came straight out to clear this topic up, I have my doubts anyone understood it so it comes back to the question of whether this method of teaching really works?
Plain English? That would be boring

For me spiral within spiral is entirely about MM.

Spiral out such as Mahes example - when we rescue we reset our base (sum of all positions) to 1 and apply fib or phi (or any multipliers) to the next rescue entry. If we have 12 troops in trouble, we spiral out and reset 12 to 1.

Spiral in is less obvious, would these qualify?

Spiral in position size: Suppose we are in profit and we feel a retrace coming and we do not want to exit Last In First Out, we can reset our 12 troops to any Fib number / phi multiple we want and recalculate exit position size. (hm.... kind of complicated)

Or if we have 1,1,2,3,5 troops in trouble and time constraint does not allow us to zoom out for a classic rescue. Instead We can zoom in to trade a retrace and rescue a portion of the troops. For example if we want to rescue 5 troops that are 10 pips underwater we can send in 5*1.618(=8) troops, if we get a retrace of4 pips (1/2.618=38%) we have BE for the 5 troops. I call this spiral in because we are using trend within trend.

On p.117 of the Prechter book there is a good illustration of spiral and wave count (spiral hits wave count at 1, 5, 21 and 89). see also diagram on p.115 for wave count and fib numbers:
Bear, bull, bear+bull 1,1,2
Bear, bull, bear+bull 3(abc), 5(12345),8(abc12345)
Bear, bull, bear+bull 13(5-3-5), 21(5-3-5-3-5), 34(5-3-5-3-5-5-3-5)

Be careful, Fibonacci numbers are used by wavists for both retrace and wave count. FTI uses it for position sizing, he said he does not agree with Prechter's curve fitting reactive wave combinations (above count does not use impulse extension nor reactive combination counts), likewise for fib retrace.

Forgot to say: If we attack and the market is with us we skip to the right (is this spiral in?) and do 8,5,3, to bring our avg price as far away from market as possible.
If we accumulate during a puffy retrace we skip to the left (spiral out?) and do 3,5,8, to bring avg price as close to market as possible.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,140
  • May 10, 2010 10:41am May 10, 2010 10:41am
Quoting Zoran
aux, I don't really discuss much in this thread unless I see a challenge like the one put by fti....
Yes, for someone "Welcome to hell in his own soul"
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