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The Dance

  • #921
  • May 10, 2010 7:43am May 10, 2010 7:43am
Quoting leemonk
Took three trades at the same time, which I am not sure is a good thing or not. I was waiting for them to form, so I was happy to take them. Whether they are good trades or not is certainly up for discussion.

Please note that at the time of posting this I have already closed out the EU trade (the middle one) when it bounced off the 15min 35sma.

I was a little blind to the 15min 10ema reversal that seems to be in effect until the 35 was hit twice. I closed on the second hit.

Close:

Got stopped out on the GU (left) and the EJ (right)

GU:...
Hi leemonk ,
Like I saw your trades , you have bought GU and EU same time , but I think that in NY market , GU and EU will be affected of same currency is USD Dollar , so most of time they will move with same direction . SO if you trade both of them same time , it's double risk .
Sorry if I was wrong , waiting more explanations of Eclayf
Good trading
Regards !
  • #922
  • Edited 9:23am May 10, 2010 7:49am | Edited 9:23am
Quoting HoangTuan
Hi leemonk ,
Like I saw your trades , you have bought GU and EU same time , but I think that in NY market , GU and EU will be affected of same currency is USD Dollar , so most of time they will move with same direction . SO if you trade both of them same time , it's double risk .
Sorry if I was wrong , waiting more explanations of Eclayf
Good trading
Regards !
I agree, but a signal is a signal I guess. Not trying to be smart with an answer, so please dont take it that way.

My signals were wrong, sadly, so it didnt work out either way.

What is interesting this morning, up until the last candle the EU and the EJ are almost identical.

*EDIT*

------THIS TRADE IS NOT BY THE RULES------

I took another trade that worked out, I'll post it below. It was fairly quick which means I didnt get a pic until after, so apologies for that.

Regards

Lee

ps. Though it worked out, I am a little disapointed that my 'call' on it dropping was wrong
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: tradepicentry.jpg Size: 119 KB
  • #923
  • Edited 9:03am May 10, 2010 8:12am | Edited 9:03am
Hello there,

(my first post)

I'm relatively complete newbie to forex and I've been lurking on this great site for some time and currently continuously watching this thread. I've already read manual couple of times and read half of this thread. Also I'm learning this great and simple strategy on simulator and demo. First of all i'm thankful to all FF community and eclayf for such useful information and suberb manual/rules/strategy.

Secondly, I think I grasped basic principles, now I have a question on recent event, so decided to make my first post at last...

I would be very grateful if anyone would clear this up. I've attached a screenshot of M15 EU. So the question: is it a valid 10MA/35MA touch to take short?

I hope that I didn't break any rules.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 67 KB
  • #924
  • Edited 8:58am May 10, 2010 8:32am | Edited 8:58am
Hi Eclayf,
I just placed one trade on EU , hope it's not too bad trade
More info in below images , waiting your reviews
Updated : just upload new picture , my SL has been touched (
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Entry.JPG Size: 124 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Waiting.JPG Size: 107 KB
Attached Image
  • #925
  • May 10, 2010 8:46am May 10, 2010 8:46am
Quoting HoangTuan
............... I just edited it to smaller size by attached them to my post , hope it's ok now .............
They seem to be fine now. Thank you and God bless.
  • #926
  • May 10, 2010 8:47am May 10, 2010 8:47am
Quoting leemonk
Hi,

I was wondering if an approaching MA will push price in a direction?......
Regards

Lee
MAs are based on price and while they don't technically "push" anything, people who trade do seem to respect them strongly, as a result it often gives that impression.

On the chart you talk about, if you look at the H1 P/A, it's making a drive down to the 10 EMA, which would necessitate that M15 also move down and follow it's own 10 EMA.

This sort of thing gives the illusion of one MA or another "pushing" price when what's really happening is that P/A from a higher time frame is now in control of price movement.

This is actually a good exercise in seeing how price really moves. "Control" seems to shift from time frame to time frame based on differing P/A on each. Overall trend is almost always controlled by D1 or higher, but there are tons of smaller moves that seem to hand off control to each other based on P/A for the smaller time frames.

Great stuff to watch and learn from.!
  • #927
  • May 10, 2010 8:47am May 10, 2010 8:47am
Quoting Daneel
Many thanks for taking the time to respond to my question so thoroughly, it's much appreciated.
Always a pleasure to help Daneel.
  • #928
  • May 10, 2010 8:48am May 10, 2010 8:48am
Quoting leemonk
Took three trades at the same time, which I am not sure is a good thing or not............

Lee
Hi Lee, best thing to do is take ONE currency for a while. Doing three is a challenge, one that I'm not sure I want to deal with much. You can often get better/ stronger results trading fewer currencies and fewer trades than trying to get them all.

Trying to trade three is really not necessary. If you want to monitor three, set up three profiles and swithch between them until you see a signal you really like, then focus on THAT currency/signal to the EXCLUSION of the others. That way you don't end up letting the others influence your decision making processes.

Hope it helps.
  • #929
  • May 10, 2010 8:48am May 10, 2010 8:48am
Quoting bluemaster
......... I’ve read and reread the manual and updates, but am having trouble getting a handle on constrainment entries,
Most of the entries in The Dance are "pull back" entries based on a price "pull back" to one of the lines involved. Constrainment can happen on any of the lines, not just the 10, in fact prior to the past two months most constrainment was happening at the higher numbered lines.

Often when price has "flatlined" a while after a session, that constrainment will be at the 35 or 50 and often when they are "on top" of each other.

If it's a "TRUE" constrainment trade, it will usually be taken on the THIRD bar or later in the "bounce" off the line. SO the answer to your question would be that you take it STILL as close to the "touch" of the line involved as possible and stick with the trade from there.

You CAN use the break of the bottom of a bar, but that puts you into the move a bit late and makes the SL too long. Try to get in on the third bar and at a pull back IN THAT SAME BAR to the line involved or at least reasonably close to it.

Hope it helps bluemaster.
  • #930
  • May 10, 2010 8:48am May 10, 2010 8:48am
Quoting HoangTuan
......but I think that in NY market , GU and EU will be affected of same currency is USD Dollar , so most of time they will move with same direction . SO if you trade both of them same time , it's double risk....
The analysis is OK Tuan. These two pairs are highly correlated, and even the GU and EJ pairs often move the same direction, and can be seen to "tug" on each other during a move. Gets pretty strange at times trying to trade them both at the same time.

The Euro has really been sort of a dog for the past several months so I avoid it for the most part lately.

For my personal tastes, I have now placed each pair on it's OWN chart setup so when I look and make my decisions I am making them on ONE set of charts and ONE currency, then I stick with that one, until at least BE and nailing down the first +15 pips.

Too many pairs makes for more confusion and the main thing here is clarity and consistency in all setups and trades. THAT should be the ONLY goal at the beginning.
  • #931
  • May 10, 2010 8:49am May 10, 2010 8:49am
Quoting leemonk
.........I agree, but a signal is a signal I guess. Not trying to be smart with an answer, so please dont take it that way.
No one takes it that way, but not all signals should be taken. Learn a bit more patience Lee, you're getting there, just be a bit more selective and learn that trading less is actually MORE powerful as it gives you time to "see" more clearly which signal is the strongest one.

Quote
.......I took another trade that worked out, I'll post it below. It was fairly quick which means I didnt get a pic until after, so apologies for that.

Regards

Lee

ps. Though it worked out, I am a little disapointed that my 'call' on it dropping was wrong

The only thing with this trade is that it is "counter trend" which is not "by the rules" and yes, there are many of these that DO work out just fine for a bunch of pips. You CAN learn to take these and make really good pips doing it.

But, they are more risky and they do not follow the rules, so be careful posting them as they would confuse other traders. If you post them make sure you note that they are NOT "by the rules" of The Dance.
  • #932
  • May 10, 2010 8:55am May 10, 2010 8:55am
Quoting messiahua
.....

I would be very grateful if anyone would clear this up. I've attached a cropped screenshot of M15 EU. I've cut it because a whole screen is a bit large and I'm interested only in one signal, that I marked on it (if it is wrong, I'll upload whole screen). So the question: is it a valid 10MA/35MA touch to take short?....
Actually a perfect entry short. Price has already passed through the 35 SMA and then given a "two bar" race back or "touch" entry at the CONFLUENCE of the two lines, which is always a good solid signal. Great entry.

Hope you locked in some pips and moved your SL to the top of the last bar as these sometimes give a second "run back" to the bottom line as well.

As for the other parts, it's better to use all three charts in the setup so everyone is consistent in how they post and so that the P/A from the other two charts in higher time frames can be used for comments and analysis, but you're fine with this one, no worries.

Welcome to the thread, messiahua
  • #933
  • May 10, 2010 9:01am May 10, 2010 9:01am
Eclayf , surf to previous page and see my trades , lose 29 pips because wrong analysis =((
Sorry for bad trades !
I will practice more to be better in looking for solid signal
Regards
  • #934
  • May 10, 2010 9:30am May 10, 2010 9:30am
Quoting eclayf
Hi Lee, best thing to do is take ONE currency for a while....
Hi Clay,

Your comments are duly noted. I have dropped back down to one pair - the GU.

This always happens to me..... I get impatient and figure that the more charts I look at the more opportunities I'lll get!

Lee
  • #935
  • May 10, 2010 9:33am May 10, 2010 9:33am
Hope it helps bluemaster.[/quote]

Thanks Clay, yes it does give some clarity, much appreciated, DX is rising so the gap might get filled.
  • #936
  • May 10, 2010 10:56am May 10, 2010 10:56am
Quoting eclayf
Actually a perfect entry short. Price has already passed through the 35 SMA and then given a "two bar" race back or "touch" entry at the CONFLUENCE of the two lines, which is always a good solid signal. Great entry.

Hope you locked in some pips and moved your SL to the top of the last bar as these sometimes give a second "run back" to the bottom line as well.

As for the other parts, it's better to use all three charts in the setup so everyone is consistent in how they post and so that the P/A from the other two charts in higher time frames...
Why it is a valid trade I think that trend is still up? Yes it worked great this time but again it is against the Main trend and may turn around at any moment. I think.
  • #937
  • May 10, 2010 1:17pm May 10, 2010 1:17pm
Quoting HoangTuan
Eclayf , surf to previous page and see my trades , lose 29 pips because wrong analysis =((
Sorry for bad trades !
I will practice more to be better in looking for solid signal
Regards
Manual rule one :
Look for longs ONLY when Price, is above the 50 EMA/ 35 SMA Lines.
  • #938
  • May 10, 2010 1:29pm May 10, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting Piotr1
Why it is a valid trade I think that trend is still up? Yes it worked great this time but again it is against the Main trend and may turn around at any moment. I think.
Have a look at the 15minute 10ema. To my understanding that signifies that the trend is now down.

It was a good entry as it also used the 35.

At least, that is my understanding. Clay will no doubt set the record straight.

Regards

Lee

*edit*

I am still early in the thread that this stage (page 22 ish) and for me I would like some clarification on the term 'trend of the moment', if thats possible Clay?

I think this is where Piotr1's question is coming from too (I may be wrong though)


Does trend of the moment refer to the 15minute 10ema only or is it dynamic? By dynamic I mean that the 15minute 10ema may be southward bounce, indicating a short trend, however if you look at the 1hr charts the 10ema or the 35sma may still be heading long, therefore if your trading the 1hr chart your ToM is long, whereas if you are trading the 15minute is short.

By trading the timeframe I mean if you are taking your indication to trade from that TF

A bit garbled, but I think I got my question across
  • #939
  • May 10, 2010 2:09pm May 10, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting leemonk

I am still early in the thread that this stage (page 22 ish) and for me I would like some clarification on the term 'trend of the moment', if thats possible Clay?

A bit garbled, but I think I got my question across
Leemonk,
Keep reading, I asked the question before. The quick answer is TOM is defined as price being above or below 35/50 MAs.

Kostas
  • #940
  • May 10, 2010 2:22pm May 10, 2010 2:22pm
The main Idea is to trade with a AAA setup (pefect setup). And the area there is a reversal area where the buyers and selers will fight for a new direction. Perfect setup is where all three Ma headed the same way (IMHO)
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