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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,101
  • May 10, 2010 4:46am May 10, 2010 4:46am
Quoting Zoran
fti relating his trading against Gann's above.
And cycles in relation to trading ? How is it applied ? How come I got a feeling people are looking for some magic numbers or something.
  • #15,102
  • May 10, 2010 4:49am May 10, 2010 4:49am
Quoting Zoran
So how do you hedge jest - against the sgd? I think if I was to hedge, it would be against the USD since I earn GBP, however, many of my expenses are in EUR.

Same observation here regarding Gann's trading and fti's, which I believe were already compared.
my trading may not be similar to the method discussed here but in essence,well ok la.

but i usually sell sgd when im short dollar and buy sgd when im long dollar. thats abt it. i use it often esp when i do not square off during the weekends.
  • #15,103
  • May 10, 2010 4:58am May 10, 2010 4:58am
Quoting Zoran
Also related.

fti, do you know what Gann might have discovered with regard to the time factor? It surely can't be predictive.

I asked Mr. Gann: "What is the cause behind the time factor?"

He smiled and said: "It has taken me twenty years of exhaustive study to learn the cause that produces effects according to time. That is my secret and too valuable to be spread broadcast. Besides, the public is not yet ready for it."
May be legit, but sounds like a marketing pitch to me. Not trying to discredit.
  • #15,104
  • May 10, 2010 5:11am May 10, 2010 5:11am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
May be legit, but sounds like a marketing pitch to me. Not trying to discredit.
I'd say the time factor is related to cycles - waves and spirals. Is this something obvious or yet undiscovered?
  • #15,105
  • May 10, 2010 5:15am May 10, 2010 5:15am
Quoting Zoran
I'd say the time factor is related to cycles - waves and spirals. Is this something obvious or yet undiscovered?
Cycles and waves, the constrain of time. ??

The constrain of price and time, I am pretty sure I am wrong here, however all those screen time I observed something, price and time constrain (probably not the topic discussed here). Down to the very low time frame level, I am able to very accurately feel and pick the correct waves to ride. For a few ticks only and only during higher than average volatility. Sorry guys if out of topic.

Ps : and yes I do trade this way.
  • #15,106
  • May 10, 2010 5:16am May 10, 2010 5:16am
can of worms? heh
  • #15,107
  • May 10, 2010 5:27am May 10, 2010 5:27am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Cycles and waves, the constrain of time. ??

The constrain of price and time, I am pretty sure I am wrong here, however all those screen time I observed something, price and time constrain (probably not the topic discussed here). Down to the very low time frame level, I am able to very accurately feel and pick the correct waves to ride. For a few ticks only and only during higher than average volatility. Sorry guys if out of topic.

Ps : and yes I do trade this way.
hmm i dont quite get the drift here?
since we're in the topic of 'feel'. maybe due to my frame and noobiness i cant quite get a hand on it other than relying on ranges. much of my 'feel' comes from direct intrepretation of news, thats when price action could really make much sense to me.

well of course in times of high volitility like this, market could seem really easy or something sickens the hell out of you, depending on which side you're on. but one thing i found dependable day in day out for me is the concept of average range it forms the basis of how i determine preferred average pricing, loss acceptance and ultimately sizing.
  • #15,108
  • May 10, 2010 5:40am May 10, 2010 5:40am
Quoting jest1081
hmm i dont quite get the drift here?
since we're in the topic of 'feel'. maybe due to my frame and noobiness i cant quite get a hand on it other than relying on ranges. much of my 'feel' comes from direct intrepretation of news, thats when price action could really make much sense to me.

well of course in times of high volitility like this, market could seem really easy or something sickens the hell out of you, depending on which side you're on. but one thing i found dependable day in day out for me is the concept of average range it forms the...
Hey jest1081

I am currently in your definition of SICKENED HELL. I think you know what direction I am in...

Loosing the balls, I can never come back. Must be super nimble to make this one back...

Good trading to the rest, hope the day went better than mine.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,109
  • May 10, 2010 5:40am May 10, 2010 5:40am
My apologies to jest and other readers, I am not very good at articulating it. And come on lah, you ? noob ? don't like that leh

Yes the average range concept, I do not place much weight on news though. But that is not what I was talking about earlier. hmm....I really don't know how to describe it. Its unorthodox. Maybe, I stress again maybe, I will post some blotters.
  • #15,110
  • May 10, 2010 5:45am May 10, 2010 5:45am
Quoting esuffw
Hey jest1081

I am currently in your definition of SICKENED HELL. I think you know what direction I am in...

Loosing the balls, I can never come back. Must be super nimble to make this one back...

Good trading to the rest, hope the day went better than mine.
wish you good trading my friend, im sure most here has seen days like yours. hang in there.
some food for thought, tho it may cause of some form rigidity, but if your loss has already trumpetted past the days range, you may want to book it. of course if you feel that your skews could handle the volitility, by all means, fight it but you know who you're fighting against hor.

Quote
Maybe, I stress again maybe, I will post some blotters.

yay! cant wait bro!
  • #15,111
  • May 10, 2010 5:51am May 10, 2010 5:51am
Quoting esuffw

Loosing the balls, I can never come back. Must be super nimble to make this one back...
Maybe time to cut size down to miniscule esuffw...
  • #15,112
  • May 10, 2010 5:56am May 10, 2010 5:56am
Quoting esuffw
Hey jest1081

I am currently in your definition of SICKENED HELL. I think you know what direction I am in...

Loosing the balls, I can never come back. Must be super nimble to make this one back...

Good trading to the rest, hope the day went better than mine.
In days when market is uncertain and manipulated like this you need to be swift and nimble. Don't overstay no matter if in profit or loss.

Didn't you read the news?

CAC 40 +8.30%
STOXX 50 +9.40%
FTSE MIB +9.26%
  • #15,113
  • Edited 6:21am May 10, 2010 6:04am | Edited 6:21am
zoran,
as a trader, i believe you are already accomplished, and that you have taken whatever has been presented by fti into something benificial to your trading complimented by your own personal skillset.

i believe fti refuses to discuss abt this matter coz there is really nothing that is casted in stone when it comes to it plus it will only cause more confusion, thus it may be something that needed your own exploration. as it is the current method has already caused alot of confusion.

Its pretty clear that each person here has their own intepretation of the method but if the aim to ultimately become profitable is achieved than obviously you have done something right somewhere, right?
  • #15,114
  • May 10, 2010 6:22am May 10, 2010 6:22am
Thx guys

I know its bad to overstay, but now the losses got to the stage where I need to call in my troops. I made a mistake of switching sides. Fear got to me. Before that, i said to myself, the path of least resistance is UP in the medium run. I ended up reversing my position, but I was right all along...

I guess faith in myself is lacking... Lesson to learn. Now, I am looking to rescure from the 1 hour chart with my main force.

Thx for all the encouragement btw. This is my first tough battle...
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,115
  • May 10, 2010 6:26am May 10, 2010 6:26am
Quoting esuffw
Thx guys

I know its bad to overstay, but now the losses got to the stage where I need to call in my troops. I made a mistake of switching sides. Fear got to me. Before that, i said to myself, the path of least resistance is UP in the medium run. I ended up reversing my position, but I was right all along...

I guess faith in myself is lacking... Lesson to learn. Now, I am looking to rescure from the 1 hour chart with my main force.

Thx for all the encouragement btw. This is my first tough battle...
Are you long or short? Since the price has retraced 100 pips from top.
  • #15,116
  • May 10, 2010 6:28am May 10, 2010 6:28am
Quoting piccolo
Are you long or short? Since the price has retraced 100 pips from top.
I just happened to picked G/U.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,117
  • May 10, 2010 6:37am May 10, 2010 6:37am
Quoting esuffw
I just happened to picked G/U.
So you carried your loss though the bid rate announcement? That is just sad.

This is getting old: cut the loss, change your scout size to minimum and re-read the tread. Otherwise the experience will be expensive.
  • #15,118
  • May 10, 2010 6:40am May 10, 2010 6:40am
flipping is not a problem coz we are always in a state of anlysis and reanalysis. your aim is to attain a preferable average while you are still in the midst of feeling the moves, once you achive it would it be time for you to call in the levels...from there you need to be aware of which wave you are presumably trading and get the flow correctly. watch gann's example and try to emulate his moves. even though is he bullish cotton he is still able to trade swings effectively coz he understands the nature of retracements.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15085
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15087

i know easy to say not easy to do. all the best.
  • #15,119
  • May 10, 2010 6:40am May 10, 2010 6:40am
Quoting esuffw
Thx guys

I know its bad to overstay, but now the losses got to the stage where I need to call in my troops. I made a mistake of switching sides. Fear got to me. Before that, i said to myself, the path of least resistance is UP in the medium run. I ended up reversing my position, but I was right all along...

I guess faith in myself is lacking... Lesson to learn. Now, I am looking to rescure from the 1 hour chart with my main force.

Thx for all the encouragement btw. This is my first tough battle...
Being in a battle myself (and having survived a few in the past) my piece of advice, fwiw.
Get off the PC for 10-15 minutes (or as long as it takes) - have a walk, drink a glass of water, do some quick physical excersice. Come back when you start feeling better. When you come back to the PC open an alternative chart source - somewhere you won't see the current result of your positions and study the charts from scratch. You will be surprised.
Also, try to stay away from the forum - it will do you no good (you are currently looking for outside help, believe it or not).

I hope this helps.
Rgrds
  • #15,120
  • May 10, 2010 6:49am May 10, 2010 6:49am
Hi Setebos,

While it might help to start from scratch sometimes, I doubt that you really can look at the charts unbiased while being in red.

Quoting fti
As a wrongly timed entrance , just signifys your lack of the ability to pulse the market.
The right protocol, I repeat, would be to either withdraw from the position
with minimal damage.(damage control if you please).
or to commit into the position, as a rescue process and a re-averaging process
for position retreval.
There is no other avenues other than these two options.

If positioning was bad, and the trader reverts back to analysis,
then the whole process collapses into hope.
And a host of subjectivity and egoistical processes begins.
Which will paralyse the traders determination and create illusional thinking.
PS - the quote above was the reason I started to read fti's thread.
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