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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,081
  • May 10, 2010 1:31am May 10, 2010 1:31am
gann is so good at messing with peoples head. im serious! lol!
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  • #15,082
  • May 10, 2010 1:51am May 10, 2010 1:51am
I m just trying to understand the finer points.....

 

  1. The guarantees are to be arranged in a "pro rata" manner, said EU Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn. Presuming they'd be divvied up under the same rubric used for earlier loans to Greece, Germany would have the largest share of guarantees, committing to back up to €123 billion of the debt in case of further loans to Greece; France would shoulder €92 billion, and even tiny Cyprus would be on the hook, for nearly €1 billion. Those figures would rise if a larger country like Spain needed money. However, this portion would need approval by the parliaments of contributing countries, something that could delay a rapid payout of funds.
  2. Political uncertainties aren't helping. In Germany, projections showed Ms. Merkel's center-right alliance Sunday lost a crucial regional election amid a voter backlash against aid for Greece. That means her government is set to lose its majority in Germany's upper house.


SO make me understand... the biggest donor governing body is not sure they will have the majority next year... and if spain needed help germany has to go to parliament again...

THough i know we dont trade news.....am i missing something or fkng Euro is doomed....

Also i know chart will tell....

V

  • #15,083
  • May 10, 2010 2:01am May 10, 2010 2:01am
Thank you all for the RnD of "Spiral within spiral" and Gann trades. Thank you fti for your insightful comments and pointers. Thank you jest, auxesis, lusan, deusomega.

Special thanks to Zoran for keeping the flame.

The discussion helps to fill the blanks. Right now it looks to me like a tripple edge sword, lol.
  • #15,084
  • May 10, 2010 2:17am May 10, 2010 2:17am
Quoting fti
as none of you know how price the options fair, you will be overpaying for sigma and hist. volatility.

its counterproductive.

regards
Can we hedge without using options? There are other methods right, even for us fleas?
  • #15,085
  • May 10, 2010 2:19am May 10, 2010 2:19am
Quoting Zoran
Can we hedge without using options? There are other methods right, even for us fleas?
I believe before we start discussing hedging options, it is more important to understand why and when to hedge. if at all.
  • #15,086
  • May 10, 2010 2:20am May 10, 2010 2:20am
Quoting piccolo
I believe before we start discussing hedging options, it is more important to understand why and when to hedge. if at all.
Double that....
  • #15,087
  • May 10, 2010 2:30am May 10, 2010 2:30am
Quoting fti
maheswara, try not to follow me now, dance to your norm.

I am getting into level 5, so if I rescue , its gonna be big in ratio to my norm. The fact that I may have to invove level 6, is making me hedge accross currencies to weigh the attack heavy if I have to. This requires me to spiral within the spiral to leverage on that the attack, if it comes. The deficit of not having much foreign cap since returning from my holidays is not a plus factor. Therefore I have to impliment te level 6s very carefully. Parts of level 5 is already in positions.

regards

Level...
fti, can you explain how you hedge across currencies and leverage the attack using spiral within spiral? I don't think options are in use here, correct?
  • #15,088
  • May 10, 2010 3:37am May 10, 2010 3:37am
ecb spooked out by eu drops ?
giving 750B bail out ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #15,089
  • May 10, 2010 3:46am May 10, 2010 3:46am
Quoting maheswara
ecb spooked out by eu drops ?
giving 750B bail out ...
mahes,
it goes further then that:

 

  1. EU Crafts $962 billion show of force to halt crisis
  2. Full blown monetization: ECB will buy public and private bonds
  3. Fed reactivates swap lines with Bank of Canada, BOE, ECB, BOJ, and the SNB

If only Kaynes was alive to see that, hah.
The word is out now - they have started buying government bonds already.
Bond yeilds are back in focus, another sick curve on the way.

  • #15,090
  • May 10, 2010 3:53am May 10, 2010 3:53am
Quoting Setebos
mahes,
it goes further then that:
[list][*][url="http://preview.bloomberg.com/news/2010-05-10/eu-ministers-craft-928-billion-show-of-force-to-halt-crisis-buoy-euro.html"]EU...
I somehow dont feel its right to buy ur own government bonds ... they shld just let it default , like Russia did ...

@zoran ,
u can read about options n hedging in the book : The Quants by Scott Patterson ,
a nice inside view to the way quantitative hedge fund works ...
also history on how quantitative trading started , black scholes and other pricing methods
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #15,091
  • May 10, 2010 4:11am May 10, 2010 4:11am
Quoting maheswara
@zoran ,
u can read about options n hedging in the book : The Quants by Scott Patterson ,
a nice inside view to the way quantitative hedge fund works ...
also history on how quantitative trading started , black scholes and other pricing methods
Black Scholes model is only an academic paper. It did path the way though. I suggest studying the works of Ed Thorpe, who pioneered hedge funds. Btw Ed Thorpe's works are original and he made billions where the academics still struggle (Ed is both an academic and and real player). Basically he filled the gap of the BS model.
  • #15,092
  • May 10, 2010 4:22am May 10, 2010 4:22am
Quoting Zoran
Can we hedge without using options? There are other methods right, even for us fleas?
Yes you don't have to use options or any fancy derivatives.
  • #15,093
  • May 10, 2010 4:23am May 10, 2010 4:23am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Yes you don't have to use options or any fancy derivatives.
and sgd seems best for me. mark, you?

PS:
wont anyone wanna discuss gann's campaigns? it does look alot like fti's tradin doesnt it? but unlike fti, his skews were inverse
  • #15,094
  • May 10, 2010 4:26am May 10, 2010 4:26am
Same for me lah, but I am still grumpy over the the long term depreciation of USD.
  • #15,095
  • May 10, 2010 4:28am May 10, 2010 4:28am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Same for me lah, but I am still grumpy over the the long term depreciation of USD.
the last time USD traded here. i made a haul at amazon...
im thinking, if i should do it again haha

grumpy? you running a business?
  • #15,096
  • May 10, 2010 4:36am May 10, 2010 4:36am
Quoting jest1081
the last time USD traded here. i made a haul at amazon...
im thinking, if i should do it again haha

grumpy? you running a business?
Damm you are one of those fast ones also huh LOL. The grumpy part...yeah sort of....
  • #15,097
  • May 10, 2010 4:40am May 10, 2010 4:40am
Happy trading day to everyone! Looks like the ECB has a new toy; guess they decided to fight back (finally). Now the battle begins.

Been reading some of the posts from this weekend, and am confused as to when there is a need to hedge. From my little perspective as a day trader, I do not have positions open for more than a few hours at a time, and I kill losses pretty quickly. Hedging just seems like a lot of work for little or no benefit. After all, I am not a bank nor am I a hedge fund. I will look forward to more discussion, but have questions.

Trade well.
  • #15,098
  • May 10, 2010 4:41am May 10, 2010 4:41am
Quoting jest1081
and sgd seems best for me. mark, you?

PS:
wont anyone wanna discuss gann's campaigns? it does look alot like fti's tradin doesnt it? but unlike fti, his skews were inverse
So how do you hedge jest - against the sgd? I think if I was to hedge, it would be against the USD since I earn GBP, however, many of my expenses are in EUR.

Same observation here regarding Gann's trading and fti's, which I believe were already compared.
  • #15,099
  • May 10, 2010 4:42am May 10, 2010 4:42am
Quoting fti
You are right.

used pyramiding and never spent more than 10% on the trade. He beated the market beacuse of his strong mentality and he was aware that everything is moving in cycles.
in red is filler.

Now analyse how I trade, then relate.
Read the thread carefully AGAIN.
With market experience, you will understand.
Cycle=waves.
What is the true cycle?

regards
fti relating his trading against Gann's above.
  • #15,100
  • May 10, 2010 4:45am May 10, 2010 4:45am
Quoting fti
Wrong.
Law of motion.
Law of vibrations.

20 mins is his average hold.
It is average not fixed.

Change can only come about, when change happens with effects of law of motion.
Remember, Sun Zi Bi Fa?
reread water motion.

The legend mastered the pyrimids mathematics, ie Vincci proportions ie fibo ie WW table.

google & read

"Legend Interviewed by W y c k o f f in 1909......
"Water seeks its level," continued Mr. ...
http://www.tradingfives.com/gann/wd-...paper-1922.htm

regards
Also related.

fti, do you know what Gann might have discovered with regard to the time factor? It surely can't be predictive.

I asked Mr. Gann: "What is the cause behind the time factor?"

He smiled and said: "It has taken me twenty years of exhaustive study to learn the cause that produces effects according to time. That is my secret and too valuable to be spread broadcast. Besides, the public is not yet ready for it."
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