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Silent Service Method

  • #8,561
  • May 8, 2010 4:26pm May 8, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting clockwork71
More importantly - it would be good for my EUR/GBP short!

I got stopped out of that trade for +25. I am looking for a good re-entry signal.

Daily and 4hr have both closed below 0.8600.

Any thoughts?
  • #8,562
  • May 8, 2010 6:13pm May 8, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting jharvey407
I got stopped out of that trade for +25. I am looking for a good re-entry signal.

Daily and 4hr have both closed below 0.8600.

Any thoughts?
Here are my thoughts on the chart at the moment.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp2.png Size: 57 KB
  • #8,563
  • May 8, 2010 7:47pm May 8, 2010 7:47pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here are my thoughts on the chart at the moment.
My charts look the same. It looks like the 4hr PIN was a good signal. I also have a large PIN on the daily chart that closed below .86.

I will wait and see where the market opens before making any decisions, but I have a feeling that the market will give me a clean short signal again.

Thanks CW
  • #8,564
  • May 9, 2010 9:42am May 9, 2010 9:42am
Quoting jharvey407
My charts look the same. It looks like the 4hr PIN was a good signal. I also have a large PIN on the daily chart that closed below .86.

I will wait and see where the market opens before making any decisions, but I have a feeling that the market will give me a clean short signal again.

Thanks CW
I believe you are correct in your assumption of a clean short signal again. Be patient, you should be rewarded.
  • #8,565
  • May 9, 2010 12:12pm May 9, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting whitegoodman
hoping to see Nth Korea play Sth Korea in the qtrs
Personally I hope North Korea ends up disgraced, laughed at and humiliated, last place in their group with no goals scored. But that's just the communist hater in me.
  • #8,566
  • May 9, 2010 2:13pm May 9, 2010 2:13pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Personally I hope North Korea ends up disgraced, laughed at and humiliated, last place in their group with no goals scored. But that's just the communist hater in me.
My guess is that you will probably get your wish. Horrible squad.
  • #8,567
  • May 9, 2010 4:01pm May 9, 2010 4:01pm
Looks like the rumors are most likely true. According to Bloomberg European leaders are hammering out the final details on a 500bn Euro lending mechanism. Eur/usd is trading around 1.2920 on Oanda....Eur/Jpy also higher by about 200+pips.

Giddy Up!
  • #8,568
  • May 9, 2010 5:15pm May 9, 2010 5:15pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Looks like the rumors are most likely true. According to Bloomberg European leaders are hammering out the final details on a 500bn Euro lending mechanism. Eur/usd is trading around 1.2920 on Oanda....Eur/Jpy also higher by about 200+pips.

Giddy Up!
Mark my words:

This is just a chance to sell it at a higher rate. The Euro is in trouble. For months, if not years.
  • #8,569
  • May 9, 2010 5:59pm May 9, 2010 5:59pm
I hear you Chris. There's still a part of me that thinks that if everyone in the world thinks one thing will happen, something else probably will happen...i.e. doesn't it seem like every hedge fund & retail investor in the world is trying to find ways to short the euro?

Anyway, here's an interesting link I found over the weekend... tradersaudio.com is a site that provides squak-box services covering futures pits. I had never heard of it until I stumbled across it on a blog that I read. It almost sounds like a horse-race / auction house. This is the 10 minutes of action surrounding the plunge on Thursday... I.e. a real-time commentary of what was going on the futures pits in Chicago. It's pretty fascinating stuff...

http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2010/05...-order-taking/
  • #8,570
  • May 9, 2010 6:41pm May 9, 2010 6:41pm
Quoting clockwork71
I believe you are correct in your assumption of a clean short signal again. Be patient, you should be rewarded.
After the market gapped up the way it did at the opening, I decided that I would place a sell stop below the 4hr PIN bar from last week. This way if the market continues down it will pick me up on the way.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,571
  • May 9, 2010 7:08pm May 9, 2010 7:08pm
Quoting InfinitySL
I hear you Chris. There's still a part of me that thinks that if everyone in the world thinks one thing will happen, something else probably will happen...
I was just thinking about this myself. It seems that if 95% of traders fail, than the winning traders will be doing the opposite of the crowd 95% of the time, and only 5% of the crowd will agree with their actions.

I think shorting the euro in this case may be exception, but I think it holds true that being a sucessful trader means that you are going against the crowd the majority of the time.
  • #8,572
  • May 10, 2010 1:18am May 10, 2010 1:18am
Quoting jharvey407
I was just thinking about this myself. It seems that if 95% of traders fail, than the winning traders will be doing the opposite of the crowd 95% of the time, and only 5% of the crowd will agree with their actions.

I think shorting the euro in this case may be exception, but I think it holds true that being a sucessful trader means that you are going against the crowd the majority of the time.
That's good because I've gone long on NzdUsd again!
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,573
  • May 10, 2010 5:42am May 10, 2010 5:42am
As much as i try to understand it.....i always seem to not understand......could some please expain how this gap thing works especially when you have S/L in place and the broker closes your trade at the worst price?

Was short EU from 1.2655......S/L at 1.2778 but was closed out at 1.2942 when market opened........is this normal or is someone being crafty and cocky? Cheers..by the way it is the second time it is happening...............thanks
  • #8,574
  • May 10, 2010 6:13am May 10, 2010 6:13am
Quoting Danku
As much as i try to understand it.....i always seem to not understand......could some please expain how this gap thing works especially when you have S/L in place and the broker closes your trade at the worst price?

Was short EU from 1.2655......S/L at 1.2778 but was closed out at 1.2942 when market opened........is this normal or is someone being crafty and cocky? Cheers..by the way it is the second time it is happening...............thanks
Think of the price as the actual price that traders are willing to buy or sell at at that particular time. News over the weekend can cause the open price on Sunday to be different from the close price on Friday. Suddenly traders were trading at one price now they are trading at another, this is the gap. Your broker will fill your stop loss as soon as the price meets or is the wrong side of your stop loss but at the best price they can fill at. After a gap it can easily happen that the best price they can fill your stop loss at will be outside the limit set by your stop. It's just one of those things.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,575
  • May 10, 2010 6:18am May 10, 2010 6:18am
Quoting Danku
As much as i try to understand it.....i always seem to not understand......could some please expain how this gap thing works especially when you have S/L in place and the broker closes your trade at the worst price?

Was short EU from 1.2655......S/L at 1.2778 but was closed out at 1.2942 when market opened........is this normal or is someone being crafty and cocky? Cheers..by the way it is the second time it is happening...............thanks
Some brokers guarantee stops, others do not. Many brokers don't "open" until 5pm on Sunday. Others such as Oanda will let you execute trades all weekend long (albeit at higher spreads...like 10-15pips on the Euro). Here is a chart of Oanda's prices over the weekend...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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As you can see, prices started drifting higher after about 1pm (when news of the Greek bailout starting making the rounds). Your broker must not guarantee stops, so when he opened for trading, he got you out at the then-current price.
  • #8,576
  • May 10, 2010 9:02am May 10, 2010 9:02am
I cannot predict the future of this chart, but I think it shows a bit of a lesson.

People are emotional creatures. And heard-like animals. The EU decides to throw a lot of money at the issue, yet not really fix anything. What happens? The twitchy emotional traders either cover their shorts, or buy the EUR. If you look at the big picture, this move to 1.30 and failure isn't a huge surprise.

Always look at the big picture. ALWAYS.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,577
  • May 10, 2010 9:43am May 10, 2010 9:43am
Quoting clockwork71
I cannot predict the future of this chart, but I think it shows a bit of a lesson.

People are emotional creatures. And heard-like animals. The EU decides to throw a lot of money at the issue, yet not really fix anything. What happens? The twitchy emotional traders either cover their shorts, or buy the EUR. If you look at the big picture, this move to 1.30 and failure isn't a huge surprise.

Always look at the big picture. ALWAYS.

This is the opportunity to sell it high that you were describing yesterday. I will be shorting the break of the pin, provided it close as it is currently showing.
  • #8,578
  • May 10, 2010 9:45am May 10, 2010 9:45am
Hey Samer,

You still short my friend....

Thanks for the heads up !



good hunting,

golferfx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #8,579
  • May 10, 2010 10:03am May 10, 2010 10:03am
Quoting golferfx
Hey Samer,

You still short my friend....

Thanks for the heads up !



good hunting,

golferfx
There's no "I" in team.....LOL

http://i42.tinypic.com/f5q88.png
  • #8,580
  • May 10, 2010 10:43am May 10, 2010 10:43am
Quoting InfinitySL
... The latest rumor-du-jour is that over the weekend we will get a massive injection of funding from the ECB.
It's a 750bn. package from which austria carries the guarantee of 13bn €. The austrian annual budget as of 2009 in numbers:

 

  1. revenues: $181.2 billion
  2. expenditures: $194.4 billion (2009 est.)


Source: https://www.cia.gov/library/publicat...k/geos/au.html

From what should we answer this guarantee ?
Do we see the beginning of the end from the EURO and the EU ?

In fact I would both not miss, coz counting the pros and cons from EU it's a clear short !

Stefan.

10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
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