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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,921
  • May 8, 2010 11:17am May 8, 2010 11:17am
Quoting KeyframeHR
fullhouse, I only hope there will be a limited upside so I can load up on shorts like there is no tomorrow!
you and me both. pray for a significant bounce.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,922
  • May 8, 2010 11:23am May 8, 2010 11:23am
Quoting Scrat
IF we are to go up from here, we should target first 143.25 area, as it is the new resistance. any rally that does not break significantly 143 area should be sold.

another important level is last weekly close - 135.56. and this is where it gets really funny... i mentioned many times that a WEEKLY CLOSE below 135.53 means resumption of the main monthly downtrend, well, this didn't happen yet. spike to upper 129... but... back above 135.53 by the end of the week.
so now we have a confirmation for downtrend = lower low on monthly... but this doesn't...

Agreed, I switched to bearish bias last week and it seems it played out in a matter of hours instead of months.

I will be looking for a ride back up to the beloved 143.33 perhaps this will be the farewell rendezvous at that level although I doubt it.

I am still preferring short opportunities though because they typically happen so much faster making them preferable for a non illuminist such as myself.

Are you going to be able to shake it off for this week Geppy? I still don't think you should feel bad, that could have all gone the other way just as easy as the way it went, 140 was the correct price to leave your trades imo and you should be feeling good. Better to have good trading skills than a pile of money today you will give back tomorrow.
  • #223,923
  • Edited 11:41am May 8, 2010 11:29am | Edited 11:41am
.. why not up n up to 223 & 288 or even more till 21/1/2011...time wil tell...if it goes to 118 or even lower this year..I will say bye bye in Auslonko and no more posting overhere...

That's is my deal..Save this post to remind me later...

mine 118-1st development


but its far away to talk...but let c how its retrace next week.

Ok, let be realistic to talk in current situition especially weekly chanelling. 125 ? or Current H4=Daily=Bull where am expecting 137.60-139.70-141 ?

Just my 10 sen and let c what happen

g
  • #223,924
  • May 8, 2010 11:43am May 8, 2010 11:43am
Quoting Cod
Agreed, I switched to bearish bias last week and it seems it played out in a matter of hours instead of months.

I will be looking for a ride back up to the beloved 143.33 perhaps this will be the farewell rendezvous at that level although I doubt it.

I am still preferring short opportunities though because they typically happen so much faster making them preferable for a non illuminist such as myself.

Are you going to be able to shake it off for this week Geppy? I still don't think you should feel bad, that could have all gone the other way...

i perosnally dont think we will go that far up to 143... we bounce for 28 days on support at 141.50/142 ,and we finally break that support ?
support/ressistance ...and we have backside TL also at 141.50

but lets see ..i will start press the button at 141 ,,add more on 141.50 & again at 142...
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  • #223,925
  • May 8, 2010 12:09pm May 8, 2010 12:09pm
better keep yourself unbiased. something rattled the markets, and from what i see it looks like smart money bought everything all the way down. when someone is selling, there should be someone else buying - so a question you should ask yourself is, who bought into the dip to stop such a tremendous sell off? my answer is, smart money... but if you have a better answer, please share it with us.

i try to only look at charts and make decisions based on what i see there. what i see now is downtrend, and i agree with you that we may see a new low. BUT... in this case, things may be different - we have seen huge volume at the bottom = stopping volume. this was probably buying activity.

and guess what, with all this b.s. flying around about a computer glitch... i bet smart money gave themselves an opportunity to buy at the best price - and if you come to think about it, everything comes in line: all stops have been run, nobody expected such a thing, things look bearish now, fundamentals are bad, nothing will save greece, and because of that world economy is doomed (like greece economy is driving the entire world progress or something)... blablabla, must sell everything, save yourself, give me all your properties and go live in a forest, the end is near... you know the drill.

someone designed this "glitch" on purpose. it was made for someone's profit, and i bet in a couple of years from now we will hear about a guy, another "soros", who was inspired enough to manipulate the trading system to his own interest and get a big chunk of profit. just like soros did with bank of england in the '90s. well my friends, this is all pure bullshit. you cannot possibly do that without being helped from the inside. in fact, let me rephrase this: you cannot possibly do that without being told from the inside.

back to the topic - charts say downtrend, until proven otherwise. sell all rallies unless 143.25 area is broken - that's the limit between bears and bulls.

Quoting fullhouse
i perosnally dont think we will go that far up to 143... we bounce for 28 days on support at 141.50/142 ,and we finally break that support ?
support/ressistance ...and we have backside TL also at 141.50

but lets see ..i will start press the button at 141 ,,add more on 141.50 & again at 142...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,926
  • May 8, 2010 12:14pm May 8, 2010 12:14pm
thursday had a huge tick volume. it also had a wick of about 450 pips (low - 129.75, close - 134.33). that entire area between 129.75 and 134.33 is support, and price action will be at least funny if not straight imbecile once back there.

Quoting grashid
.. why not up n up to 223 & 288 or even more till 21/1/2011...time wil tell...if it goes to 118 or even lower this year..I will say bye bye in Auslonko and no more posting overhere...

That's is my deal..Save this post to remind me later...

mine 118-1st development


but its far away to talk...but let c how its retrace next week.

Ok, let be realistic to talk in current situition especially weekly chanelling. 125 ? or Current H4=Daily=Bull where am expecting 137.60-139.70-141 ?

Just my 10 sen and let c what happen

g
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,927
  • May 8, 2010 12:26pm May 8, 2010 12:26pm
Quoting Scrat
IF we are to go up from here, we should target first 143.25 area, as it is the new resistance. any rally that does not break significantly 143 area should be sold.

another important level is last weekly close - 135.56. and this is where it gets really funny... i mentioned many times that a WEEKLY CLOSE below 135.53 means resumption of the main monthly downtrend, well, this didn't happen yet. spike to upper 129... but... back above 135.53 by the end of the week.
so now we have a confirmation for downtrend = lower low on monthly... but this doesn't...
139.5 must be cleared first on way up, before that GJ may range within 134-137
  • #223,928
  • May 8, 2010 12:33pm May 8, 2010 12:33pm
All this talk of a fat finger or glitch or conspiracy is clouding the most important aspect of all IMO: GY had already dropped over 700 pips last week before Thursday's 15m panic.

Was this pre-election Sterling jitters? I don't think so as risk aversion on every other market kicked-in too. Someone was selling heavily last week, make no mistake about that. The real question is; are they now satisfied to buy here?

I think a 130 retest, (or close to it), is very likely.

Just an aside too. I did have a brief check of my charts on Friday and there weren't many instances of bullish dvergences on the higher TFs. In fact I can see a small bearish divergence yet to play out on the Weekly. Typically, end of trend usually coincides with some divergence and extreme oscillator levels.

Like I say, just a thought....
  • #223,929
  • May 8, 2010 1:46pm May 8, 2010 1:46pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
All this talk of a fat finger or glitch or conspiracy is clouding the most important aspect of all IMO: GY had already dropped over 700 pips last week before Thursday's 15m panic.

Was this pre-election Sterling jitters? I don't think so as risk aversion on every other market kicked-in too. Someone was selling heavily last week, make no mistake about that. The real question is; are they now satisfied to buy here?

I think a 130 retest, (or close to it), is very likely.

Just an aside too. I did have a brief check of my charts on Friday and there...

you like divergance and if its not you that you also like trading the aud/jpy,,its you or usd-bear ..

but anyway --- watch the daily bearish divergance on aud/jpy for 12months.... what do you say about that one ??
  • #223,930
  • May 8, 2010 1:51pm May 8, 2010 1:51pm
I think we can all agree on one thing, don't live trade (or at least put new trades) for at least a few days - or maybe a whole week until there is a clear picture of what's going on!
  • #223,931
  • May 8, 2010 2:16pm May 8, 2010 2:16pm
Just wanna remember my chart/prediction

Watch out with longs in long term, When US indices colapse that gonna happen.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=189047

aj,ej,nj still above 2003 level

targets for current monthly trend are

nj below 35
ej below 75
aj below 35
uj arround 75

which give us targets for pairs like
an = parity
eu = parity
eg = parity
gu = 1.2 or parity (spike)

But only under one condition :
carry tade unwind part two just began.

vix support this view at this time
  • #223,932
  • May 8, 2010 3:02pm May 8, 2010 3:02pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
All this talk of a fat finger or glitch or conspiracy is clouding the most important aspect of all IMO: GY had already dropped over 700 pips last week before Thursday's 15m panic.

Was this pre-election Sterling jitters? I don't think so as risk aversion on every other market kicked-in too. Someone was selling heavily last week, make no mistake about that. The real question is; are they now satisfied to buy here?

I think a 130 retest, (or close to it), is very likely.

Just an aside too. I did have a brief check of my charts on Friday...

I totally Agree with you. I don't think sm has bought into this becaus it takes some time to accumulate. It just doesn't happen like that; the very latest examle, can be seen the last time that we spent two weeks around 133 and then it ship up.
  • #223,933
  • May 8, 2010 4:05pm May 8, 2010 4:05pm
its also very likely we wont even see above 138 again and just totally collapse through 118 down to 90 without a significant retrace...

i really do think it will happen,,just like 2008...

if we lucky we will see 139 ..

but letse see,,and do watch it carefully
  • #223,934
  • May 8, 2010 4:11pm May 8, 2010 4:11pm
Quoting fullhouse
[b]
but letse see,,and do watch it carefully
Let's see if incompetent ECB does something tomorrow before markets open. Even fi they do, I'm afraid it's a bit too little too late, but may help us drive up to short signals! Also, what's the situation in the UK now? Fear/uncertainty and TA doesn't hold up anymore.
  • #223,935
  • May 8, 2010 7:10pm May 8, 2010 7:10pm
650 parliament seats were up for grabs. The party that wants to form the new government would need at least 326 seats (half of 650 plus one seat). With only one more seat to be counted, the Conservatives have 306 seats against Labour’s 258, Lib Dem’s 57, and 28 ‘others’. This means no one has the majority to form the new government.

any fundamental analysis?
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -16.4%
  • #223,936
  • May 8, 2010 10:27pm May 8, 2010 10:27pm
Quoting KeyframeHR
I think we can all agree on one thing, don't live trade (or at least put new trades) for at least a few days - or maybe a whole week until there is a clear picture of what's going on!

Either you are joking or maybe you are out of your mind?

I don't think anyone will agree with you.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #223,937
  • May 8, 2010 10:51pm May 8, 2010 10:51pm
YES..............I don't agree with him.

Looks oversold, but when hasn't lately? Perhaps push to 139 and then possibly 120 are in the cards

Quoting KillerWhale
Either you are joking or maybe you are out of your mind?

I don't think anyone will agree with you.
Daily
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  • #223,938
  • Edited 1:21am May 9, 2010 12:33am | Edited 1:21am
Quoting KeyframeHR
I just shat myself, accidentally stumbled upon this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZE2dPzln5w

Prechter showed up before 2008 crash and said what it will do, also before 1987 what it will do. Listen to what he said, VIX up, S&P down - what just happened, tell me? He says it will be much worse than 2008.
Yup it will be...

Watch..." End Game " by Alex Jones... on You Tube..........You may understand whats going on...

Last week was the evidence of what to expect in the Future..

By the way it was no accident..it was by the Pattern!!!
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #223,939
  • May 9, 2010 1:28am May 9, 2010 1:28am
Quoting budak baru
650 parliament seats were up for grabs. The party that wants to form the new government would need at least 326 seats (half of 650 plus one seat). With only one more seat to be counted, the Conservatives have 306 seats against Labour’s 258, Lib Dem’s 57, and 28 ‘others’. This means no one has the majority to form the new government.

any fundamental analysis?
Fundamentally, the hung parliament is bad news for Sterling, but the kind of moves we may have seen have been swallowed in the run down last week.

But, the longer the UK stays in limbo, the less the markets will like it. A Conservative/Lib Dem coalition is by no means certain and it will be worth keeping an eye on developments early this week. The Lib Dem manifesto contains some fundamental things which the Conservatives could never agree to and Nick Clegg has already said he has no intention of working with Gordon Brown either.
  • #223,940
  • May 9, 2010 2:32am May 9, 2010 2:32am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Fundamentally, the hung parliament is bad news for Sterling, but the kind of moves we may have seen have been swallowed in the run down last week.

But, the longer the UK stays in limbo, the less the markets will like it. A Conservative/Lib Dem coalition is by no means certain and it will be worth keeping an eye on developments early this week. The Lib Dem manifesto contains some fundamental things which the Conservatives could never agree to and Nick Clegg has already said he has no intention of working with Gordon Brown either.
hope that in the coming parliament session at the end of this month they would not suffer a vote of no confidence.
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -16.4%
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