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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,901
  • May 7, 2010 11:18am May 7, 2010 11:18am
Quoting Geppy
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/defau...et%20Crash.mp3

now?
Yep, cheers. Damn IE7 settings.
  • #223,902
  • May 7, 2010 11:19am May 7, 2010 11:19am
Quoting Jake Snake
Look what I wrote on the 26th April about Oct 2009....I predicated 135 - God damn I was miles out - It should have been 129!!!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=222479

I'm useless at short term predications, but better at medium and longer terms.
I've noticed that about MVAs myself also - bottoms are harder though... and if you try to pick a bottom, your hand might be smelly I guess we'll have to accept whatever it is on shorter time frames and look for a daily 21MVA as a magnet for now (up).

Volatility/indecision that kicks in after yesterdays moves has to settle before real trading/clear picture. I wouldn't put money in it for some time now, maybe a week or so until it stabilizes and I wouldn't recommend anyone to put money into this volatility either, even though we - geppy traders - are used to volatility and love it.
  • #223,903
  • May 7, 2010 11:52am May 7, 2010 11:52am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Yep, cheers. Damn IE7 settings.
yeah.. "fat finger".. my (stories for little kids)
  • #223,904
  • May 7, 2010 12:05pm May 7, 2010 12:05pm
Image of a trader with a fat finger:

http://imgur.com/OxL4K.jpg

anyways, CME issued a statement there was no fat finger!
  • #223,905
  • May 7, 2010 12:07pm May 7, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting Piters
yeah.. "fat finger".. my (stories for little kids)
Yeah that is got to be the silliest excuse yet from these clowns. How you been Piters?
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,906
  • May 7, 2010 12:39pm May 7, 2010 12:39pm
Looks like the 133 low is being defended given the large volume. We're just below the pivot right now, and in the downward range. Have captured a bit of that range today, but looks like things are stabilizing and the swings have slowed. I'm sure most traders have had enough, assuming they lived through yesterday. Cheers!
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  • #223,907
  • May 7, 2010 1:26pm May 7, 2010 1:26pm
up down up down, lulz ahead! Geppy was "defended" today, we'll see a wedge up quite possibly next week. It's free roaming now between daily support/resistance, danger ahead. So I went across the board looking for corelated pairs, namely EJ since it's a barometer for equity markets. Looks what I found:

massive inverse cup and handle that materialized:

http://imgur.com/E6MK2.png

see that triangle with top at ~124 and bottom at ~112 - my guess is we'll range between those a bit before it decides which way to go -> and same goes, thus, for all other Y pairs... so might keep an eye on EJ to know where GJ will go.

Thoughts?
  • #223,908
  • Edited 3:22pm May 7, 2010 3:12pm | Edited 3:22pm
Well, it was a good week. She closes above Fib. with daily rsi oversold, with a leg up out of 30. Half expect a run to 139 or 141, before retreating back down to breech the middle prong of Andrew's pitchfork again. 120 may need to set a place @ the table.

Everyone have a good weekend. If you got your pip on this week; buy you and a loved one a nice bottle to white zinfendel and a porter house steak and celebrate.
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  • #223,909
  • May 7, 2010 4:53pm May 7, 2010 4:53pm
Quoting gucc
yip,and then a few bounces up and down,then a quick move to 135,and we shall not rule out a move as low as 130 where a very lenghy and tortuous basing process ought to start.. Thats is where i leave this pair to rest while completing its basing..

ohh i post this in jan...
  • #223,910
  • May 7, 2010 5:13pm May 7, 2010 5:13pm
I just shat myself, accidentally stumbled upon this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZE2dPzln5w

Prechter showed up before 2008 crash and said what it will do, also before 1987 what it will do. Listen to what he said, VIX up, S&P down - what just happened, tell me? He says it will be much worse than 2008.
  • #223,911
  • Edited 8:06pm May 7, 2010 5:55pm | Edited 8:06pm
Quoting Gucc
i made a statement 1 month ago,that the eur/jpy had more leverage to the downside than the gbp/jpy...

the gbp/jpy wont see below 135,,, i will say it again,possibly a spike low to 130,and that will be the the low,before a tortous basing ought to start..

many traders here, say 118 and below,, but i stand firm we wont see below 130 ..


the NZD and the AUS are extreme bearish and the COT reading say a reading of 100, that is bearish reversal... but again the jpy is extreme bullsih,.. but its a mess with the gbp..

you might get a better return...
lol....posted on 25th jan
  • #223,912
  • May 8, 2010 3:09am May 8, 2010 3:09am
Quoting Clouds
can we go to 120 first and then 140? 93 was key for me for UJ.
I dun think so as am expecting 130 is the max even it drop little bit lower to 129 area.

Current H4=Daily=Bull where am expecting 137.60-139.70-141 as this week close juct nice at above 134.30 area...and am not suprice if it could go back to my 142.20/30 key area of big massive drop on thursday where i may take short from that area (141-142 area).

Overall bear=rest and bull will take over for a while...

I could be wrong as usual but let c what happen next week

Happy weekend and good luck

g
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  • #223,913
  • May 8, 2010 9:23am May 8, 2010 9:23am
Quoting grashid
I dun think so as am expecting 130 is the max even it drop little bit lower to 129 area.

Current H4=Daily=Bull where am expecting 137.60-139.70-141 as this week close juct nice at above 134.30 area...and am not suprice if it could go back to my 142.20/30 key area of big massive drop on thursday where i may take short from that area (141-142 area).

Overall bear=rest and bull will take over for a while...

I could be wrong as usual but let c what happen next week

Happy weekend and good luck

g
weekly and monthly view is still bearish and 125 will become a serious test area for both bulls and bears, if it holds then the bulls win
  • #223,914
  • May 8, 2010 10:12am May 8, 2010 10:12am
I'm expecting some news noise yet again saying "the worst is over" "buy, buy, buy". If it bounces to the 139.50 area I'll be watching closely for shorts. 61 fibo from the April 26th high, 50 sma, and s/r. Should be an interesting week.
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,915
  • May 8, 2010 10:12am May 8, 2010 10:12am
short long rallies, long short selloffs with care - no other option until that EURJPY chart clears up. Volatility IMO until the end of summer when there will be another drop. Unless it occurs earlier, which will, in that case, be more troublesome than we think.
  • #223,916
  • Edited 10:44am May 8, 2010 10:31am | Edited 10:44am
here is some charts for the bulls to look for ,and pls RE-EVALUATE again..

GBP/JPY CURRENTLY BEARISH AND WERE BEARISH SINCE DAY ONE IN 2010 THE MONTHLY CHARTS HAVE NOT REFLECTED BULLISH FOR ONE SINGLE DAY i dont know why some say we are bullish on weekly and monthly charts... ONLY ABOVE 151 IS momentum bullish,,BUT OVERALL we were below 151 all the time during 2010 and clearly in a downtrend. This downtrend will contniue for very long .. 130 WILL NOT BE THE BOTTOM, and we will take out the low of 118 ,and if not double bottom on monthly,,but we are def target 118 coming months... we will not see above 146 again,before we see 118,and break will target 115 and so on....

if you think we are bullish and think 130 will be the low..can you pls look at all these charts i posted of other jpy crosses and it doesn't help to look only at gbp/jpy and analyse your outlook...gbp/jpy might be difficult to analyse,and other crosses are easier to look at..

so all who think we might go to 151 and so and,,,can you pls comment on my charts why on earth we will bottom soon...

all the other jpy crosses,topped for 12 consuequtive months ,and we finally are at the end and we will see MAJOR MOVES down...WHY WILL WE GO UP ?? WHATS ANY REASONS BEHIND THAT ??

FUNDAMENTALLY AND TECHNICALLY SPEAKS BEARISH FOR MAJOR MOVES DOWN AND NOT BULLISH ...

YOUR COMMENTS PLS...

sooner ,rather than later will gbp/jpy target 118 ...
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  • #223,917
  • May 8, 2010 10:36am May 8, 2010 10:36am
fullhouse, I agree completely!
This EURJPY chart tells it all. EURJPY is a gauge for markets. This is a huge, crystal clear, inverted cup and handle. We'll see some limited bounce and another drop and another... this is some serious sh*t hit the fan.

http://i.imgur.com/E6MK2.png

By looking at EURJPY you can know where everything is going, always. It's a proxy gauge for markets, same as copper is for economic growth.

This is textbook case.
  • #223,918
  • May 8, 2010 10:39am May 8, 2010 10:39am
IF we are to go up from here, we should target first 143.25 area, as it is the new resistance. any rally that does not break significantly 143 area should be sold.

another important level is last weekly close - 135.56. and this is where it gets really funny... i mentioned many times that a WEEKLY CLOSE below 135.53 means resumption of the main monthly downtrend, well, this didn't happen yet. spike to upper 129... but... back above 135.53 by the end of the week.
so now we have a confirmation for downtrend = lower low on monthly... but this doesn't go along very well with lower tf price action. this is like a heavy punch in the face from your boss after you worked so much on a project.

anyway, long story short:
- last resistance before a significant rally = 143.25
- last support = 134.33, based on daily charts; might get tested again next week... or we might jump directly to 143 area...
- another important level to watch next week is 135.56, last weekly close. if we get a daily close above it, then theoretically we could retest 143 area.

error or not, this is what i see on the charts and how i will trade.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,919
  • May 8, 2010 10:52am May 8, 2010 10:52am
Quoting KeyframeHR
fullhouse, I agree completely!
This EURJPY chart tells it all. EURJPY is a gauge for markets. This is a huge, crystal clear, inverted cup and handle. We'll see some limited bounce and another drop and another... this is some serious sh*t hit the fan.

http://i.imgur.com/E6MK2.png

By looking at EURJPY you can know where everything is going, always. It's a proxy gauge for markets, same as copper is for economic growth.

This is textbook case.

IT IS DEF. SERIUOS SHIT,,if you look at other crosses... the downtrend did not start yet...lol.. the beginning will start very soon .. all other crosses toppped for 12 months and the downtrend will continue soon..where will the gbp/jpy end ???? 60 ? 80? 90 ? ... gbp/jpy is close to the low of 118 compare to the rest ? what if all the other crosses take out the low on monthly charts ?? where will the gbp/jpy go ?? we are in for 2000 - 10000 pips according to monthly charts on the rest...
  • #223,920
  • May 8, 2010 10:55am May 8, 2010 10:55am
fullhouse, I only hope there will be a limited upside so I can load up on shorts like there is no tomorrow!
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