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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,941
  • May 7, 2010 10:36am May 7, 2010 10:36am
Quoting auxesis
Dow just turned positive, 120 pip euro + run......... E/Y +193 = 15 minute run

someone earlier was asking why to downsize?

edit 10 minutes later Dow now down 120. ROLF!
Yeah, volatility is through the roof across the board. This is wild, Dow is more volatile then cable, LMAO
Rumors on ECB setting up a E600 bln facility for potential bank bailouts is not helping to calm the market either

@nubcake - go get 'em tiger, hehe

Edit: Anyone else having hard time with the bloomberg website?
  • #14,942
  • May 7, 2010 10:43am May 7, 2010 10:43am
no really, what am i missing here? the more volatile the easier you can see where things are heading and where it will stop and turn-around etc... or is that just me?

i don't see the point in scaling-back when things are clearer and more decisive. if things are more volatile then doesn't this just mean you get your stop or tp hit (if you use either) quicker and can move onto the next trade sooner?

maybe my perspective is wrong... i'm assuming people are actually trading this and not sitting on the sidelines trading a monthly chart.
Congratulations ScalaFX for coming out of the closet!
  • #14,943
  • May 7, 2010 11:05am May 7, 2010 11:05am
I also downsized, in fact the most part of the week I am trading like 1/4 of my usual size.

nubcake I don't think your perspective is wrong, I guess it is a matter of what best suits your game plan.

But this kind of action, it has been a very good week so far, just set the record to beat for the rest of the year for myself.
  • #14,944
  • May 7, 2010 11:26am May 7, 2010 11:26am
Quoting nubcake
the more volatile the easier you can see where things are heading and where it will stop and turn-around etc... or is that just me?
I would think in markets with more volatility the perceived resistance and support areas would be harder to define. Because in volatile markets its easier to push through these areas. That's one of the main reasons that higher volatility implies higher option prices because the option writer has a greater risk of prices running against them and vice versa the option buyer has a greater chance for profit if he chooses the correct direction.

If anything markets with low volatility usually implies range trading thereby making identifying areas of support and resistance easier and more reliable.
  • #14,945
  • May 7, 2010 11:48am May 7, 2010 11:48am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
I also downsized, in fact the most part of the week I am trading like 1/4 of my usual size.

nubcake I don't think your perspective is wrong, I guess it is a matter of what best suits your game plan.

But this kind of action, it has been a very good week so far, just set the record to beat for the rest of the year for myself.
You are brave! I am down to 1/10th of my normal size with scouts etc. this week. Had a great week so far. A great start to the trading month. Hope all here are off to a good start for the month. Ray
  • #14,946
  • May 7, 2010 11:55am May 7, 2010 11:55am
Hi All,
Today is a nice day.

One of my boys from many many moons ago remembered me.
And sent me a video.
Gets a warm feeling to know someone remembers.

regards

http://www.facebook.com/video/video....07019919325489
  • #14,947
  • May 7, 2010 11:59am May 7, 2010 11:59am
Quoting auxesis
Dow just turned positive, 120 pip euro + run......... E/Y +193 = 15 minute run

someone earlier was asking why to downsize?

edit 10 minutes later Dow now down 120. ROLF!
Hi auxesis, I am done for the week. Was trading the E/J and GBP today, and as the NY open arrived I downsized a bit due to the volitility, and the fact the FXCM trading station fell behind my charts and my charts hung up a few times. Great day, though, especially London. When it moves 100-150 pips in a few minutes, you don't get many opportunities to add to the position, and the snap back can be so fast (I had just jumped out of a GBP/$ trade and the market pulled back 100 pips in less that 5 minutes -- yikes!) that a slow trading station is scary. Hope you all have a great weekend and let's push the ECB around again on Monday morning, OK?
  • #14,948
  • May 7, 2010 12:02pm May 7, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Today is a nice day.

One of my boys from many many moons ago remembered me.
And sent me a video.
Gets a warm feeling to know someone remembers.

regards

http://www.facebook.com/video/video....07019919325489
omg....your disciple found you in FF or facebook ?
  • #14,949
  • May 7, 2010 12:05pm May 7, 2010 12:05pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Today is a nice day.

One of my boys from many many moons ago remembered me.
And sent me a video.
Gets a warm feeling to know someone remembers.

regards

http://www.facebook.com/video/video....07019919325489
Loved it fti, thanks so much for sharing. Have a good weekend!
  • #14,950
  • May 7, 2010 12:06pm May 7, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting 1234
You are brave! I am down to 1/10th of my normal size with scouts etc. this week. Had a great week so far. A great start to the trading month. Hope all here are off to a good start for the month. Ray
Likewise to you too Ray.
  • #14,951
  • May 7, 2010 12:08pm May 7, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
omg....your disciple found you in FF or facebook ?
its one of the scouts i nurtured, not trader.
Still in uni.
He was a child when we was together.

regards
  • #14,952
  • May 7, 2010 12:12pm May 7, 2010 12:12pm
Quoting fti
its one of the scouts i trained, not trader.
Still in uni.
He was a child when we was together.

regards
oh wow...old skool man

Sir, would you comment a little about what to expect in the weeks to come ? And the possible implications for the rest of the year ? Of coz not trying to be predictive here or what, just that your experiences would be valuable.

thank you

ps : that vid good man thanks
  • #14,953
  • May 7, 2010 12:13pm May 7, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Today is a nice day.

One of my boys from many many moons ago remembered me.
And sent me a video.
Gets a warm feeling to know someone remembers.

regards

http://www.facebook.com/video/video....07019919325489
Very nice, thanks for sharing.
  • #14,954
  • May 7, 2010 12:20pm May 7, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting fti
Hi All,
Today is a nice day.

One of my boys from many many moons ago remembered me.
And sent me a video.
Gets a warm feeling to know someone remembers.

regards

http://www.facebook.com/video/video....07019919325489
Really inspiring. Thank you.
  • #14,955
  • May 7, 2010 1:19pm May 7, 2010 1:19pm
I have difficulty relating the Gann and Welles part.
  • #14,956
  • May 7, 2010 1:33pm May 7, 2010 1:33pm
This dog fight thing...long time ago I watched a documentary on dog fights, I thought to myself this look like trading. Maybe I am just thinking what I want to think. I can draw a lot of parallels between winning dog fights and winning trading. The Gs being on me totally make sense....

what happened to the last post ?

PS : I am seeing some things here...hmmm in new light !
  • #14,957
  • Edited 2:30pm May 7, 2010 1:47pm | Edited 2:30pm
Thank you fti for the lessons and your patience.

Your message is clear but we sometimes stubbornly refuse to understand because our minds have been so poisioned by false teachings.

After 10 years of study your approach is the first and only one that makes sense to me.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #14,958
  • May 7, 2010 1:51pm May 7, 2010 1:51pm
Quoting Baifu
Thank you fti for the lessons and your patience.

Your message is clear but we sometimes stubbornly refuse to understand because our minds have been so poisioned by false teachings.

After 10 years of study your approach is the first and only one that makes sense to me.

Regards,
Baifu
Thank you for you kind words.
but please remove my post from quotes.

thanks

regards
  • #14,959
  • May 7, 2010 1:55pm May 7, 2010 1:55pm
Quoting fti
Thank you for you kind words.
but please remove my post from quotes.

thanks

regards
Ha ha I've already screen captured it! It's mine! jk
  • #14,960
  • May 7, 2010 2:02pm May 7, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
I have difficulty relating the Gann and Welles part.
I still haven't figured out the Gann secret

And Welles is interesting because he has produced books claiming the market can be predicted and that there is an order that exists.

On his Delta Society website he claims

"Serious traders know that we can now PREDICT every market turn, in any market, with amazing accuracy."

So he is either incredibly gifted or incredibly arrogant.

What I don't get about Gann and what always troubles me whenever I try to understand him ...

Is if he was such a great trader as that interview would attest to then why even bother with selling crap? I know fti says he brought out all the astro stuff etc to sell it to the public... but who would waste their time with that? If you can trade with a record like that article shows then I wouldn't bother marketing anything to anyone. I can see if you ware incredibly down on your luck.... but who would willing sell crap to people?
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