A Simple London Breakout | Page 30 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

A Simple London Breakout V.2 1,490 replies

SIMPLE EA for a simple method needed!! 2 replies

Another Simple London Breakout System (with a twist) 46 replies

Simple london breakout v.9.2 error 1 reply

Need help with this simple london breakout EA 2 replies

Attachments: A Simple London Breakout
Exit Attachments

A Simple London Breakout

  • #581
  • May 6, 2010 4:13pm May 6, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting mer071898
Okay guys, I'm back in full force! Let's try and catch up a little.

First off, I'm sorry to see you bow out Steve, but always know you are welcome back anytime you want.
Not bowing out mer, but Sq's coding skills are awesome and his range of ideas fantastic. As he has coded the indi, it makes sense to hand over robot development to him.

I am still here, and making pips (usually) out of your wonderful trading system.

  • #582
  • May 6, 2010 4:22pm May 6, 2010 4:22pm
I have another LiteForex broker. They have now GMT+2 Time. So on mine Alpari I have difference with Liteforex one hour back.
So Alpari is GMT+1 now.

Quoting mer071898
Alpari Russia is actually GMT +2 in the summer so you should actually have the indicator set to 05:00 to 08:00.
  • #583
  • May 6, 2010 4:27pm May 6, 2010 4:27pm
I am really sorry I cannot understand your martingale style.
Could you please explain how you are facing with loosing trades working with martingale.
+20x13 what it means.

Quoting mer071898
With Martingale Multiplier

+260 (+20 x 13)=
+260 pips
.
  • #584
  • May 6, 2010 4:38pm May 6, 2010 4:38pm
Quote
I have another LiteForex broker. They have now GMT+2 Time. So on mine Alpari I have difference with Liteforex one hour back.
So Alpari is GMT+1 now.

I don't know what to tell you. I confirmed that info through Alpari's live chat and they said they are on central European time which is GMT +2 in the summer and GMT+1 in the winter. This also explains why your chart is 1 hour behind mine.

Quote
I am really sorry I cannot understand your martingale style.
Could you please explain how you are facing with loosing trades working with martingale.
+20x13 what it means.

A multiplier is just what is states. If you start with .1 lots as your starting lot size, you increase the lot size after a loss by the next multiplier. So by saying +20 x 13, it means you would have made 20 pips x 1.3 lots (.1 x 13)
  • #585
  • May 6, 2010 5:05pm May 6, 2010 5:05pm
hi everybody! why don't we add a function to decide the lot size as a % of the accountbalance?
i'm using this kind of mm in my trading... let's say that the box size suggest a maximum loss of say 45 pips, we could code a function that says: ok if u want to loose max say 1% of your account u should use xx lots...
clear?
this is actually the way i trade: i decide my sl position, and the % i'd be ready to risk, then i calculate the right lot size...
it should be quite easy in our case too as we know, day by day, the maximum loss in pips.
martinguale would be also possible considering the % instead of the lots!
so if i risk 1% in the first breakout, and it goes bad then for the second i'd risk say 1.5%!
i'll post some code lines tomorrow morning as here in italy it's night and i'm quite asleep!!
this is how i would really use the ea because as i trade the session start i've no time to do all the calculations manually for this breakout!

ps i am the first that would like a pdf explaining all the stuff and in particular how to set the gv and the ea!
good night everybody and..... tons of pips to the asian session's traders!
  • #586
  • May 6, 2010 5:56pm May 6, 2010 5:56pm
Hi Guys
This thread has moved on so fast from original concept that it can get a bit confusing which indicator version to use with which ea version etc. etc.
Could we have a pdf document explaining latest indicator and ea and how to set them up and all the different functions . For example I have the london breakout indicator version 7 on my charts which am happy with, can I use latest ea by sq. with this or do I need version 9?
Geoff
  • #587
  • May 6, 2010 6:47pm May 6, 2010 6:47pm
Hi Squalou
Thanks for your great contributions to this excellent thread.
I have just installed your latest EA and indi v9. The on screen words tell me that we are closed but I have just had 2 pairs start taking trades!! It is currently 11.45pm GMT and everything should be asleep (except those of us who hang off the other side of the world in Australia!!).
When I try to load the indi (V9) I do not get the drop down input box nor does it register that I have installed an indicator. I have done this hundreds of times but I must be doing something wrong. Does the EA make the indi redundant - if so, how do I get the trading time to input?
Sorry to be such a klutz but I am confused.
Regards Karl
  • #588
  • May 6, 2010 7:24pm May 6, 2010 7:24pm
Attached a pic of one of the charts that indicates that the EA is trading - well outside the trading period. I have Expert Advisors switched off to stop it trading. Thought it might help. As soon as I switch the Expert Advisor tab on, it sends pending orders and in one case, opened trades. I have 8 charts operating and 2 of them are doing this. The other 6 charts are saying 'Not trading'.
Strange!!??
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf chart 7may10.gif Size: 40 KB
  • #589
  • May 6, 2010 7:53pm May 6, 2010 7:53pm
The Market surely went crazy last night..
Hope you guys was there harvesting Pips.

  • #590
  • May 6, 2010 9:36pm May 6, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting The flame
hi everybody! why don't we add a function to decide the lot size as a % of the accountbalance?
i'm using this kind of mm in my trading... let's say that the box size suggest a maximum loss of say 45 pips, we could code a function that says: ok if u want to loose max say 1% of your account u should use xx lots...
clear?
this is actually the way i trade: i decide my sl position, and the % i'd be ready to risk, then i calculate the right lot size...
it should be quite easy in our case too as we know, day by day, the maximum loss in pips.
martinguale...
I agree, I think that adding it through % vice a hard fib number makes more sense. If you look at your fib numbers they are typically 2.66% or something like that (fib number) after you get up to a few lots..

I believe 2.66 as a multiplier is very dangerous for ANYONE. (that is your choice though)

This is a mechanical system and odds are in your favorite, however, could you go 13 times to failure? Do you want to find out?

In my opinion, why not break even and get it back to 0 or enable the EA to do such as I believe most people would feel much more comfortable with that.

Unless you have a 1M account and bet .01 lots, then it makes sense. I haven't met to many of those people through this forum. Then why bet .01 just so you can use the Martingale...? hmmm. Such an interesting topic.
We are our own best indicator.
  • #591
  • May 6, 2010 9:39pm May 6, 2010 9:39pm
Mer
Are you planning to post charts for this week's trading now that you're back?

P.S. sorry to hear about your family troubles
  • #592
  • May 6, 2010 10:30pm May 6, 2010 10:30pm
Quote
I believe 2.66 as a multiplier is very...

Look, please nobody take offense at this but I'm tired of saying that I choose to use the martingale because I have the capital to to so. If you don't like to use martingale or like using my specific multipliers, don't use them! I said this strategy is just a base, so build it to suit your trading and your money management. I include both ways in my charts to show the good and the bad of utilizing the martingale to be fair to those who are interested in applying it.

Quote
Mer
Are you planning to post charts for this week's trading now that you're back?

P.S. sorry to hear about your family troubles

Thanks taz, I appreciate the comments and concerns from you and everyone else here. Don't worry too much as the problems are getting resolved and it was really nothing super serious, just more of an inconvenience. With regards to posting charts for this week, I will probably not post charts this week as I am behind and trying to catch up with other business and I'm really pressed for time this week. I will probably start up fresh on Monday, that way I can study a little more on how the new settings are behaving. If you have a question on a particular pair, let me know.
  • #593
  • May 6, 2010 10:32pm May 6, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting bluemele
I agree, I think that adding it through % vice a hard fib number makes more sense. If you look at your fib numbers they are typically 2.66% or something like that (fib number) after you get up to a few lots..
One of the very reason I stopped posting my comments was MM and I see this coming over and over again. This probably means that indeed, this is a valuable point to discuss. So after following the thread (thx for the breakout Mer), here is what I meant to share earlier on:

First of all, I have nothing against Martingale ... actually I like Martingale ... but martingale means you have 2 random variable, same distribution, same expectation .... what the hell does this means ..... typically, that the behavior or losing or winning is similar. Well .... NOT in our case. And why is that ... because although (let's say) you have a 50% / 50% chance of win/loss, the behavior of it (its amplitude in our case) is never similar from one try to another BECAUSE it depends directly on the Breakout BOX Size .... (and saying that the box size has a normal distribution would be attributing a gaussian behavior to the market action .... do not even go there !)

So, focus on what you want: recoup loss and eventually (up to you), make some profit.

Well, instead of randomly multiplying lots taking into accounts only the number of consecutive losses ..... determine the number of lots to enter a trade following losses by:
1. determining the amount ($$) lost
2. determine the nb of lots to recoup this $$ amount BASED on the Take Profit (as "difficult" as determining a SL = % equity ... as everyone knows you don't enter a trade with the nb of lots you want to make a win, you enter with the number of lots you are ready to loose .... typically 2% .... traditional MM with various mathematically correct explanation behind it)
3. Add a little extra if you want

... Mer, I know you slam everyone questioning martingales ... but sit down 2 sec and think about this scenario ... first loss of 10 pip, second loss of 10 pip, third loss of 10 pip ... mutiplier 13 .... but no chance this time the box size is 50 .... SL is thus 50 .... do you want to risk loosing 650$ to actually recoup 80$, where a multiplier of 2 would have been enough to actually recoup your loss and add a 20% benefit.

I have coded everything you said in an EA, with re-entry (at bounce and at break-out as suggested by Sangman .. which I like better), I have coded both "recoup strategy" ... and recouping with the latter (which mathematically makes more sense) is better, at least to my standards.

Furthermore, when backtesting the strategy ... didn't everyone ever observe that, sometimes, even when applying Mer Martingale ... some loss would not be recoup .... well what I explained earlier is exactly the reason .... loss 1 at SL=40, loss 2 at SL = 30 (30x2), loss 3 at SL = 40 (40x5): total loss = 40+30x2+40x5=300, win 4 at TP = 20 (x13) = 260 .... and the result is ..... -40 (not accounting for spread) .... even with a multiplier of 13 ! That happened in February this year on FXCM datasets at least if I remember well.

Now for the sake of the conversation, when using Mer martingale multiplier strategy, I believe it would be safer to do as previously suggested .... take only 2 positions max per session in two opposite "loosing" positions, stop there, and call it side-ways ... better chances tomorrow.

Finally, let these price actions fly without cutting trades short at TP. A Simple QQEA would do it .... I'm sure Squallou can make everyone happy with this.

That's everything I have in my EA from the strategy detailled by Mer. (about 50-60 lines of code thanks to the well written indicator provided by Mer ... the very first version ... I did not used the newer one yet)

if there is some flaws in my reasoning please let me know. I always appreciate learning from my mistakes. that's the only way not to make them twice.

XmPh.
  • #594
  • May 6, 2010 10:42pm May 6, 2010 10:42pm
Quoting mer071898
Look, please nobody take offense at this but I'm tired of saying that I choose to use the martingale because I have the capital to to so. If you don't like to use martingale or like using my specific multipliers, don't use them! I said this strategy is just a base, so build it to suit your trading and your money management. I include both ways in my charts to show the good and the bad of utilizing the martingale to be fair to those who are interested in applying it....
No offense my friend, ppl are sharing their views around your excellent strategy. Everyone is thankful for you to share this.

Eventually, there might be some good at listening to other ppl, and you might even end-up making more money.

Martingale: 2 random variables, same expectation, same behavior (distribution) ... not in our case. There is nothing wrong at applying correctly and purposefully a martingale. But what you propose is a "recoup+gain multiplier strategy" (for which I have no mathematical explanation considering the very nature of the Box strategy).

Maybe an appropriate solution would be to start a MM thread parallel to Mer BreakOut Thread. Would that be an interesting Idea? That way, Mer you would not be "upset" or "bothered" anymore. And other ppl could discuss one aspect of this strategy (the MM) in a friendly environment .... and eventually Mer, you'll come some time and glance at this thread.
  • #595
  • May 6, 2010 11:08pm May 6, 2010 11:08pm
Quote
One of the very reason I stopped posting my comments was MM and I see this coming over and over again. This probably means that indeed, this is a valuable point to discuss.
I don't want you to ever feel that you can't express your opinions and make valid points. I encourage those who do.

Quote
... Mer, I know you slam everyone questioning martingales ... but sit down 2 sec and think about this scenario ... first loss of 10 pip, second loss of 10 pip, third loss of 10 pip ... mutiplier 13 .... but no chance this time the box size is 50 .... SL is thus 50 .... do you want to risk loosing 650$ to actually recoup 80$, where a multiplier of 2 would have been enough to actually recoup your loss and add a 20% benefit.
Come on, I don't slam anyone who questions using martingale. What I do is I stress that this is what I use and if you want to use a different martingale sequence or not to use it at all, fine. I will never force anyone into believing that the martingale I use is the only way to do it. I use it because I have the capital to effectively use it and it satisfies my needs and it does what I need it to accomplish.

Quote
Well, instead of randomly multiplying lots taking into accounts only the...
I am and have been fully open to this idea. If the EA was intelligently coded to take into consideration the total sum of all the losses and calculate the number of lots needed to pull a profit based on the new Profit Target, I'm all for it. Because I'm a fairly aggressive trader, I don't believe in just breaking even, that is a waste of my time and it should never be your goal to just breakeven off of a loss. Granted, it is more difficult, but nobody said it wouldn't be risky.
Quote
Furthermore, when backtesting the strategy ... didn't everyone ever observe that, sometimes, even when applying Mer Martingale ... some loss would not be recoup .... well what I explained earlier is exactly the reason .... loss 1 at SL=40, loss 2 at SL = 30 (30x2), loss 3 at SL = 40 (40x5): total loss = 40+30x2+40x5=300, win 4 at TP = 20 (x13) = 260 .... and the result is ..... -40 (not accounting for spread) .... even with a multiplier of 13 ! That happened in February this year on FXCM datasets at least if I remember well.
But doesn't that say something when you have to go all the way back to February to find that example? I never said that the sequencing is perfect, you'll run into situations like that on occasion, it's the nature of Forex trading and this is not the holy grail by any means. just consider how bad it would've been without the multiplier.

Quote
if there is some flaws in my reasoning please let me know. I always appreciate learning from my mistakes. that's the only way not to make them twice.
Trust me, there are no flaws in your reasoning, but it's just one person's opinion against another and no one is really wrong here. It's all about what you prefer to use or not use. The whole thread was not about the martingale, I just gave everyone another option to build off of.

Quote
Maybe an appropriate solution would be to start a MM thread parallel to Mer BreakOut Thread. Would that be an interesting Idea? That way, Mer you would not be "upset" or "bothered" anymore. And other ppl could discuss one aspect of this strategy (the MM) in a friendly environment .... and eventually Mer, you'll come some time and glance at this thread.
That could turn into an excellent idea. Do I really come across as being "upset" or "bothered", if so I don't mean to sound that way. I am just trying to control the thread so it doesn't get too confusing for all (hard to do, I know).
  • #596
  • May 7, 2010 1:25am May 7, 2010 1:25am
I highly recommend no trading due to the Non-Farm Payroll report this morning. Go take the weekend and relax. We have no trading signals tonight anyhow due to the Wall St. drop and the situation in Greece.
  • #597
  • May 7, 2010 1:40am May 7, 2010 1:40am
Quoting mer071898
I highly recommend no trading due to the Non-Farm Payroll report this morning. Go take the weekend and relax. We have no trading signals tonight anyhow due to the Wall St. drop and the situation in Greece.
Agreed.

Anyway, those box is ridiculously too big for some pairs.
Not a good sign.
  • #598
  • May 7, 2010 2:21am May 7, 2010 2:21am
Steve,
Will you be implmenting any of these ideas into the BS asian breakout bot you have in the BS thread? I love that bot. Still testings it and it also has come a long way.
Thx for all your efforts.
You are da man.

Quoting SteveHopwood
Not bowing out mer, but Sq's coding skills are awesome and his range of ideas fantastic. As he has coded the indi, it makes sense to hand over robot development to him.

I am still here, and making pips (usually) out of your wonderful trading system.

  • #599
  • May 7, 2010 2:32am May 7, 2010 2:32am
Hi guys,

so, the EA discussion is getting really interesting here!

Here were my initial plans for the EA extensions:

- move to initial BE(+spread) when half-TP is hit: this is something that will make people more confortable;
let second half develop with that new secured SL;
Steve coded this extension in his latest version, so the EA already does that with the half-TP enabled; it even locks-in BE+BEProfit actually;

- when full-TP is hit, RE-ENTER with limited SL, and TRAIL it;
this will allow to catch the continuation;
Re-entering is needed, as the order hitting the TP is then closed;
If price retraces, then we still have locked-in the higher SL -- which may be lower than the original TP if price retraces just after having reached the TP, but that's still a good positive trade!
If price flies away as it did so often these past days, then... you'll just make more pips, i'm affraid!
(and i can tell you it has worked pretty strongly lately!!)

We can discuss the trail distance -- it will be an input anyway;
what would be a good default value ?

- add martingale option;
although i'm not confortable with it, i understand people who want to use it; it will be added to the EA some day, but that was not my first priority


@ xmph : would you kindly share the "re-enter at bounce and at break-out" code you have coded ? Just to save us (& me!) this hassle...
I don't mind if you even post the full EA here


I'll be off for the week-end, digesting the 1100 pips (without martingale!) on yesterday's GJ pair (don't ask me what settings i use )

Sq.
  • #600
  • May 7, 2010 2:48am May 7, 2010 2:48am
i think i have found yet another bug sualou.. check it. its the v2 of the ea..
it did trade now but the problem is that it traded on yesterdays box. not todays box.. see image below.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: bug.JPG Size: 150 KB
1 trader viewing now