Silent Service Method | Page 424 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Silent room 2 replies

Silent Success of Patience 10 replies

My silent journal 4 replies

bo7a method... method for GBP/JPY 205 replies

Seeing Through the Silent Crash 4 replies

Attachments: Silent Service Method
Exit Attachments

Silent Service Method

  • #8,461
  • May 5, 2010 11:39pm May 5, 2010 11:39pm
Quoting clockwork71
I would like to see a small bounce, and then sell it. To be honest, I think my target of EUR/USD at 1.25 is a bit high. I am starting to think 1.15 before it's all over. I think this issue is going to go on for a few years.....maybe not this violent, but I think we drift for ages on this pair.
Bearing in mind the useful posts above it looks like I put my sell stop below stronger support than I thought! I just thought it looked a little overextended as a move, due a pullback perhaps? I'm short eurgbp along with everyone else on the thread so don't have too much to worry about. Thanks for the reply.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,462
  • May 5, 2010 11:46pm May 5, 2010 11:46pm
Quoting clockwork71
Here is my update on EUR/GBP
I've got 9450, one of the very few s/r lines I have at a 50. This includes the bottom of two real bodies and one shadow.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,463
  • May 6, 2010 12:00am May 6, 2010 12:00am
Quoting clockwork71
I cannot predict things in the future any more than any one else. However, I feel that the next serious issue is without a doubt the Chinese real estate market. China has been "cooking the books" for years, and sooner or later, the truth comes out. (Mothers around the world all agree on that point.) It's as true with countries as it is with kids. China has been building random projects to keep the economy humming.

A communist government needs that kind of thing to keep the populace satisfied.

My long term view: China isn't communist in 20 years....
That reminds me of the Fascist America creating the problem (9/11) and coming up with the solution (land security) and with the consent of the american people sending their own children to war to come home as heroes in body bags at the same time taking away from the american people their own freedom creating new laws in the name of security.
War and Health care is a big business in America, they can start a war anywhere they want in order to get the eyes away from their own problems. They create disease (Swine Flu, AIDS, etc…) in order to push their drugs and make tons of money and is very easy to have the majority believing that the Government is their for them with the solution to help.
America is probably the next empire to fall like other (Greedy) ones fell. They create consumers from Kindergarten on. They don't care about the consequences. Buy more. Consume more. I don't think is the best solution.
Economy (Greed) is what will bring the show down. When? I don't know but it may be very soon. The air is corrupted.
And Europe will still prevail even if they have to break the Euro apart.
Who needs it anyway.
  • #8,464
  • May 6, 2010 12:58am May 6, 2010 12:58am
Quoting 77z3
Buy more. Consume more. I don't think is the best solution.
How else do you keep 6 Billion people employed?

Though I don't disagree with your post, most people forget that without consumerism, most of us wouldn't have jobs.
  • #8,465
  • Edited 1:46am May 6, 2010 1:16am | Edited 1:46am
Quoting clockwork71
I cannot predict things in the future any more than any one else. However, I feel that the next serious issue is without a doubt the Chinese real estate market. China has been "cooking the books" for years, and sooner or later, the truth comes out. (Mothers around the world all agree on that point.) It's as true with countries as it is with kids. China has been building random projects to keep the economy humming.

A communist government needs that kind of thing to keep the populace satisfied.

My long term view: China isn't communist in...
Hey, didn't I tell you to "forget about China," and just like a kid told by the parent not to go this way or that - you go do it

I know what you mean ... what does China expect? To return to an antiquated governance model and rule the world? (Don't think so.) Globalization does not equate to Communizing the world but it does sound funny and it may even happen for a time, say during a world war. The U.S. is the lead horse for Democratizing the world and if Globalization is to get any footing, it will need Democracy as a forerunner. However [Democracy] isn't necessarily pegged to the USD or any particular currency per se...

All-in-all I don't believe it's in the best interest of the world to be at the whim of competitive politics; it's just too childish.
  • #8,466
  • May 6, 2010 1:41am May 6, 2010 1:41am
Quoting clockwork71
For those who have the cajones.....this could be the trade many of you look back to "that one trade that changed it all for me."

Let's hope.
Hi.

500 pips up now, this one could have what it takes to replace my 7 handles hall of famer.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #8,467
  • May 6, 2010 2:57am May 6, 2010 2:57am


Quoting clockwork71
No, but it wouldn't surprise me if Greece left the EU.

My Italian is limited, sorry....but I do know this:

"Forza Inter!"
Patience is essential
  • #8,468
  • May 6, 2010 3:21am May 6, 2010 3:21am
Quoting clockwork71
I cannot predict things in the future any more than any one else. However, I feel that the next serious issue is without a doubt the Chinese real estate market. China has been "cooking the books" for years, and sooner or later, the truth comes out. (Mothers around the world all agree on that point.) It's as true with countries as it is with kids. China has been building random projects to keep the economy humming.

A communist government needs that kind of thing to keep the populace satisfied.

My long term view: China isn't communist in...
I spend a lot of time in China on business and it is frightening to see the number of empty office tower blocks and residential high rises there - they are normally the ones next to another just being built

The Chinese are very canny and entrepreneurial types though. I see them relaxing foreign real estate ownership laws at some point for commercial property in order to clear some of this glut, leaving international investors holding the baby who will inadvertently go flying in with open chequebooks thinking they are getting in on the ground floor. Oh dear!

Friends of mine have used bank loans that they were supposed to use towards buying new plant for their factories and production expansion and have simply bought real estate, bought shares and bought raw materials like copper and aluminium and just have it sitting in their empty new warehouses that should be full of workers making clothing, medical devices etc.

Very scary if this unwinds quickly. The leverage built up in the wealthy classes there in speculative investments is staggering and with a national inclination towards gambling, nothing is hedged. Amongst other things we would see many factories closing pushing the price of goods up substantially in our own retail stores adding to future inflation in this scenario.

The only thing saving a lot of these guys is that the government has approved many loans at zero interest to these businesses to produce new jobs so this issue will not surface as quickly as there are no debt obligations to default on and draw attention to this problem. If property blows up, the capital losses simply accrue on the Gov's tab (off balance sheet of course).

I wonder how long the wheels can stay on.
  • #8,469
  • May 6, 2010 4:56am May 6, 2010 4:56am
Quoting 4xAddict
I spend a lot of time in China on business and it is frightening to see the number of empty office tower blocks and residential high rises there - they are normally the ones next to another just being built

The Chinese are very canny and entrepreneurial types though. I see them relaxing foreign real estate ownership laws at some point for commercial property in order to clear some of this glut, leaving international investors holding the baby who will inadvertently go flying in with open chequebooks thinking they are getting in on the...
Well, isn't that the Chinese way of "Building the Ark," to save the world and preserve their country? To me, it's a hedge for the future, for profit, instead of being against loss. Helluva gamble, presumptuous and of course the joke is they won't be able to run it proficiently with Communism! So much for their golden parachute indeed. Otherwise the revolt against censorship would drastically compromise their wealth and cue the kids rebelling against their parents' oversight, the real world would cyberpunk the country into oblivion.

Nowadays the private sector is also prime to where the money is flowing as a hedge against all governments' defaulting the world over. And I believe every economy will default because they've all followed the dollar...

Nevertheless, in the mindless frenzy of mainstream news, the IMF projects that for the year 2010 China and India alone will contribute to over 40% of the world economic recovery... So, I say spot me some Indian/Asiatic ETFs, mof
  • #8,470
  • May 6, 2010 5:20am May 6, 2010 5:20am
Quoting stefx
Hi.

500 pips up now, this one could have what it takes to replace my 7 handles hall of famer.

Stefan.
I think you are correct......but only time will tell of course.
  • #8,471
  • May 6, 2010 5:25am May 6, 2010 5:25am
Quoting 4xAddict
I spend a lot of time in China on business and it is frightening to see the number of empty office tower blocks and residential high rises there - they are normally the ones next to another just being built

The Chinese are very canny and entrepreneurial types though. I see them relaxing foreign real estate ownership laws at some point for commercial property in order to clear some of this glut, leaving international investors holding the baby who will inadvertently go flying in with open chequebooks thinking they are getting in on the...
Pay attention to this post gang, and remember it when the wheels come off of China like he said.

The empty buildings are exactly the kind of thing that is a really, really bad sign. Also, look into "Ghost Towns" in China. They have entire cities they have built for nobody. Just to keep people employed. This has the makings of a nasty unwind.
  • #8,472
  • May 6, 2010 6:39am May 6, 2010 6:39am
it is been 9 years since i have opened a branch of my business in china and i know that prices of real estate has doubled in the last 5 years , and at this very moment they are taking precautions to stop the prices from going so high, i think there is a big demand for real estate in china , but in the same time i agree that they did build cities in a few years , like senzhen near hong kong witch is a huge city now . i remember the price for a samll apartment of 3 rooms was around 40 k now it is above 200k .
they have a plan , and they do not think in the same we do !
just my opinion
samer

Quoting clockwork71
Pay attention to this post gang, and remember it when the wheels come off of China like he said.

The empty buildings are exactly the kind of thing that is a really, really bad sign. Also, look into "Ghost Towns" in China. They have entire cities they have built for nobody. Just to keep people employed. This has the makings of a nasty unwind.
  • #8,473
  • May 6, 2010 7:05am May 6, 2010 7:05am
Quoting InfinitySL
This is an excellent graphic:

http://images.vizworld.com/wp-conten...eb_Of_Debt.jpg

Pretty much shows you who owes who money... What a tangled web they weave... It would be better if they showed it scaled versus the relative country's GDP. I.e. owing a billion dollars to another country isn't inherently a bad thing if you're a massive country that can afford it. The problem is Greece is such a small economy relative to its debt load and taxing ability. I think I heard that 20 or 30% of taxes are never collected...
Yes debt is a problem in Europe, but it is the US that should be more worried.



Inserted Video
  • #8,474
  • May 6, 2010 7:31am May 6, 2010 7:31am
Quoting 77z3
That reminds me of the Fascist America creating the problem (9/11) and coming up with the solution (land security) and with the consent of the american people sending their own children to war to come home as heroes in body bags at the same time taking away from the american people their own freedom creating new laws in the name of security.
War and Health care is a big business in America, they can start a war anywhere they want in order to get the eyes away from their own problems. They create disease (Swine Flu, AIDS, etc…) in order to push...

You're not strongly opinionated are ya?
  • #8,475
  • May 6, 2010 7:57am May 6, 2010 7:57am
Quoting Soca
This country's quite literally broke; ground zero for not only the subprime mortgage crisis but the emergent sovereign debt default crisis as well. Thus the default crisis ripple effect must spread b/c the U.S. is the contagion. That's simplistically attributable to its reserve currency status as model imperative for other countries to replicate, which is exactly what's happening.
I'll respectfully disagree with this analysis.

The US does not currently have a sovereign debt crisis on their hands, so it can't be ground zero for the sovereign debt crisis. Perhaps you mis-phrased that. Be that as it may, our debt to gdp ratio at 90% is alarming but you forget that the key difference between our situation and that of the Greeks and to a lesser extent, the Italians, Portugese, et al is that we have the ability to tax & grow out of the problem. Furthermore, we have our own currency and our debts are denominated in that currency - we have infinitely more financial flexibility than the Greeks who have to rely on the ECB to loosen/tighten policy for the entire region and can't respond the same way a "Greek Central Bank" might respond.

But back to the US Situation: Last year tax receipts plummeted (due to Job Loss & Lower GDP) at the same time that spending skyrocketed (stimulus) not to mention that nominal & real GDP Fell. So...not only did your numerator (debt) get bigger, but your denominator (GDP) fell making the % even higher. If you can get the budget deficit down to 2-3% of GDP or even (gasp!) a surplus and grow your GDP, the numbers don't look so daunting.

Tax receipts are starting to recover as the economy improves. Just yesterday, the US Treasury announced smaller treasury auctions than many US Government Bond traders had expected: Story on the Auction here.

Entitlements are a major issue on the horizon and must be reformed. Whether anyone in the US has the political will to get that done is anyone's guess. So there could be a problem on the horizon but to say that we ARE the problem or "ground zero" of the sovereign debt crisis is wrong.

Lets not forget that Japan's Debt/GDP ratio is above 200% and yet we often talk about going long/short that currency without any concern for the solvency of that nation. The USA's own Debt to GDP ratio hit almost 150% in the mid 1940s -- we've been here before and we've survived and indeed prospered.

No, the sky is not falling -- a bit cloudy, but not falling.

/rant -- Sorry for hijacking your thread by posting that chart Chris. I'll try to behave myself in the future!
  • #8,476
  • May 6, 2010 8:00am May 6, 2010 8:00am
Quoting 77z3
That reminds me of the Fascist America creating the problem (9/11)...
This post offends the hell out of me....

How is it in Iran this time of year anyway?
  • #8,477
  • Edited 9:04am May 6, 2010 8:09am | Edited 9:04am
Quoting InfinitySL
This post offends the hell out of me....

How is it in Iran this time of year anyway?
It offended me too but to each his own.
  • #8,478
  • May 6, 2010 8:48am May 6, 2010 8:48am
Quoting InfinitySL
Furthermore, we have our own currency and our debts are denominated in that currency
The underlined is THE most important part of this very good post. Our debt is in US dollars. Considering we control the inflation on our own currency, there is a huge difference.
  • #8,479
  • May 6, 2010 8:54am May 6, 2010 8:54am
Bought this today.....we will see. Thought it was a nice set up....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ifp1.png Size: 100 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ifp2.png Size: 96 KB
  • #8,480
  • May 6, 2010 8:57am May 6, 2010 8:57am
Quoting TraderDavo
The underlined is THE most important part of this very good post. Our debt is in US dollars. Considering we control the inflation on our own currency, there is a huge difference.
True. And more importantly, we have 5,113 nukes.

It is in the interest of all countries to keep the American debt fueled consumption. It was set up that way on purpose. If it falls, the world goes with it. Not fair, but that's what happens when you are the victors after a World War. You get to make the rules.

If we could only get a decent footy (soccer) team, that would be something.....
6 traders viewing now