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Silent Service Method

  • #8,441
  • May 5, 2010 2:12pm May 5, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting clockwork71
Thanks for a upfront perspective Stefan.....

I agree, it's funny how money appears out of thin air to bailout French, German, and other European banks. Everyone wins - it you are one of the modern Hapsburgs I suppose?
Perhapsburg...

Chris, eurusd broke 1.29 and a weekly trendline today. I know you're short already but for anyone interested in getting in is now the time? I've set a sell stop just below the break candle so I'm not looking for trade confirmation from you but I'd be interested in your opinion. It seems that there's been a big push already that may just bounce back tomorrow/next week?
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,442
  • May 5, 2010 2:18pm May 5, 2010 2:18pm
This is an excellent graphic:

http://images.vizworld.com/wp-conten...eb_Of_Debt.jpg

Pretty much shows you who owes who money... What a tangled web they weave... It would be better if they showed it scaled versus the relative country's GDP. I.e. owing a billion dollars to another country isn't inherently a bad thing if you're a massive country that can afford it. The problem is Greece is such a small economy relative to its debt load and taxing ability. I think I heard that 20 or 30% of taxes are never collected due to a combination of tax evasion, graft, and general incompetence.

For the full story that goes along with this chart, had over to the NY Times.

Perhaps this time next year we'll be trading the "Drachma".
  • #8,443
  • May 5, 2010 3:06pm May 5, 2010 3:06pm
Quoting InfinitySL
... and taxing ability. I think I heard that 20 or 30% of taxes are never collected due to a combination of tax evasion, graft, and general incompetence.
Hi.

Indeed an interesting chart, or should we better say a schematic of a timebomb. About the taxing I've read similar, that about 17-25B € of untaxed money from greece is deposited in swiss accounts. In other words, this bailout does also mean to pay the income tax for the better suited greeks which do not feel the need to pay on their own.

Stefan.
10 x 100 = 100 x 10, stefx, retired scalper.
  • #8,444
  • May 5, 2010 3:49pm May 5, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting stefx
...a schematic of a timebomb.
Indeed - scary.

Quote
About the taxing I've read similar, that about 17-25B € of untaxed money from Greece is deposited in Swiss accounts. In other words, this bailout does also mean to pay the income tax for the better suited Greeks which do not feel the need to pay on their own.
Yeah, I agree and I think I may have mixed up my figures. Instead of 20%, it is €20bn in uncollected taxes or something like that. But in any case, you get my point. Not to mention that the Greeks lost all credibility by lying about their fiscal condition prior to the current government taking over.

It's a bad situation all around and the other PIIGS are not in much better position. The only positive things you can say about the other countries is that they were starting from a much lower ratio of Debt/GDP ratio (except for Italy it would appear).

P - Portugal: 77% Debt/GDP ratio
I - Ireland: 65%
I - Italy: 116%
G - Greece: 115%
S - Spain: 53%
(From: The Economist)

It doesn't look good for many of these countries, but I suppose we'll see. I did want to post an interesting chart of the Euro (vs. USD). You'd have to be very brave to go long, but I can see the scenario where it might make sense...Take a look (this is a big chart, click to enlarge):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2010-05-05_Euro.png Size: 107 KB


I know...I know...I'm crazy. But stranger things have happened...
  • #8,445
  • May 5, 2010 3:51pm May 5, 2010 3:51pm
Quoting Arfer Daily
Perhapsburg...

Chris, eurusd broke 1.29 and a weekly trendline today. I know you're short already but for anyone interested in getting in is now the time? I've set a sell stop just below the break candle so I'm not looking for trade confirmation from you but I'd be interested in your opinion. It seems that there's been a big push already that may just bounce back tomorrow/next week?

I would like to see a small bounce, and then sell it. To be honest, I think my target of EUR/USD at 1.25 is a bit high. I am starting to think 1.15 before it's all over. I think this issue is going to go on for a few years.....maybe not this violent, but I think we drift for ages on this pair.
  • #8,446
  • May 5, 2010 3:52pm May 5, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting InfinitySL
This is an excellent graphic:

http://images.vizworld.com/wp-conten...eb_Of_Debt.jpg

Pretty much shows you who owes who money......
Short Drachma/USD!
  • #8,447
  • May 5, 2010 3:54pm May 5, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Indeed - scary.

Yeah, I agree and I think I may have mixed up my figures....
True on the trend line.....but I am willing to bet it is only good for a bounce at best......at least that is what my trades and stop losses say. lol
  • #8,448
  • May 5, 2010 4:10pm May 5, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting clockwork71
Short Drachma/USD!
I am Italian.....should i worry about??
Patience is essential
  • #8,449
  • May 5, 2010 6:13pm May 5, 2010 6:13pm
Here is my update on EUR/GBP
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurgbp.png Size: 47 KB
  • #8,450
  • May 5, 2010 6:14pm May 5, 2010 6:14pm
Quoting benem
I am Italian.....should i worry about??
No, but it wouldn't surprise me if Greece left the EU.

My Italian is limited, sorry....but I do know this:

"Forza Inter!"
  • #8,451
  • May 5, 2010 6:18pm May 5, 2010 6:18pm
Quoting clockwork71
Short Drachma/USD!


No, I think thats Miami International.


golfer
  • #8,452
  • May 5, 2010 6:21pm May 5, 2010 6:21pm
The battle begins.

Now we find out who has skin in the game.


good hunting,



golferfx
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur weekly.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #8,453
  • May 5, 2010 6:29pm May 5, 2010 6:29pm
I did Samer's family tree...and yes...he's related to freakin George Soros !!!


Smooth operator that samer !!




good hunting,


golfer
  • #8,454
  • May 5, 2010 8:18pm May 5, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting InfinitySL
Indeed - scary. [...]

P - Portugal: 77% Debt/GDP ratio
I - Ireland: 65%
I - Italy: 116%
G - Greece: 115%
S - Spain: 53%
(From: The Economist) [...]

I know...I know...I'm crazy. But stranger things have happened...
U.S.A.'s Debt/GDP ratio is now over 90%!

Check-out www.usdebtclock.org for the REAL debt. (Scroll-down the mainpage to US UNFUNDED LIABILITIES; notice that it's currently about $36 trillion more than the ASSETS just above it ... a gap which alone would take appx. 100 years to pay off at this rate!)

This country's quite literally broke; ground zero for not only the subprime mortgage crisis but the emergent sovereign debt default crisis as well. Thus the default crisis ripple effect must spread b/c the U.S. is the contagion. That's simplistically attributable to its reserve currency status as model imperative for other countries to replicate, which is exactly what's happening.

And forget about China. It's export led economy is its Achille's heal. It's utterly dependent on the U.S. (their primary customer) which won't be able to afford it, in a big way, very soon. (Guess what that looks like in the currency markets.)

Enjoy the ride...

Of course I'm but a minimalistic "trumpet blower" on this thread; I don't post my trades or follow anybody's trades (unless I'm paying someone to trade one of my accounts). I simply believe the only one on this thread who should be posting their trades is CW71. This thread helped me to appreciate the PPZ and a perspective on trading that's as universal as it is advanced.

Now I listen to the market and hope y'all take heed to prepare for a change in your own way of living.
  • #8,455
  • May 5, 2010 8:55pm May 5, 2010 8:55pm
lol.
hey say it here since when u are short so people will know who is the real soros
well done my friend we are near to adding in soon .
samer

Quoting golferfx
I did Samer's family tree...and yes...he's related to freakin George Soros !!!


Smooth operator that samer !!




good hunting,


golfer
  • #8,456
  • May 5, 2010 9:00pm May 5, 2010 9:00pm
HI low
still short ? thats a super drop , such ugly pair and such a great profit .
we have a weekly trendline around 12350 and major weekly support at 12350 too . watching for a price action around this area to see when sellers lose control , so i close it .
regards
samer
  • #8,457
  • May 5, 2010 9:17pm May 5, 2010 9:17pm
la lireta era bella, ti ricordi !! questo euro di merda a fatto male a l'italia , questo lo ditto anni fa !
Quoting benem
I am Italian.....should i worry about??
  • #8,458
  • May 5, 2010 9:21pm May 5, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting Soca
U.S.A.'s Debt/GDP ratio is now over 90%!

Check-out www.usdebtclock.org for the REAL debt. (Scroll-down the mainpage to US UNFUNDED LIABILITIES; notice that it's currently about $36 trillion more than the ASSETS just above it ... a gap which alone would take appx. 100 years to pay off at this rate!)

This country's quite literally broke; ground zero for not only the subprime mortgage crisis but the emergent sovereign debt default crisis as well. Thus the default crisis ripple...
I cannot predict things in the future any more than any one else. However, I feel that the next serious issue is without a doubt the Chinese real estate market. China has been "cooking the books" for years, and sooner or later, the truth comes out. (Mothers around the world all agree on that point.) It's as true with countries as it is with kids. China has been building random projects to keep the economy humming.

A communist government needs that kind of thing to keep the populace satisfied.

My long term view: China isn't communist in 20 years. But that's speculation. I believe China will experience serious pain before it enters a golden age. Can you imagine a capitalist China? It would be a true powerhouse indeed!
  • #8,459
  • May 5, 2010 9:22pm May 5, 2010 9:22pm
Quoting golferfx
The battle begins.

Now we find out who has skin in the game.


good hunting,



golferfx
For those who have the cajones.....this could be the trade many of you look back to "that one trade that changed it all for me."

Let's hope.
  • #8,460
  • May 5, 2010 11:32pm May 5, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting samer960
HI low
still short ? thats a super drop , such ugly pair and such a great profit .
we have a weekly trendline around 12350 and major weekly support at 12350 too . watching for a price action around this area to see when sellers lose control , so i close it .
regards
samer
Still in. 2nd target 1.2315. Last target 1.19ish.
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