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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,361
  • May 5, 2010 1:35pm May 5, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting Geppy
Now this is getting fun!

Glad I talked some sense into you, Gucc?


A daily close below 141.57 sees 139.90/139.40. . . on a bounce!
  • #223,362
  • May 5, 2010 1:37pm May 5, 2010 1:37pm
Quoting Geppy
Now this is getting fun!

Glad I talked some sense into you, Gucc?

yip,thnx, i agree you did ..
  • #223,363
  • May 5, 2010 1:40pm May 5, 2010 1:40pm
Quoting quecee5
Bro we can go all the way to 136 and still be in a nice uptrend. . .
My target has been 136 months ago bro and my view hasn't changed. . . but watch what happens when we get down there. . . Bulls will defend thier position at 131. . .

Now if you are talking a new low - lower than 118 I would say that is highly unlikely. . . Just my thoughts. . .

no..i mean a new low to 130 MAX slight possibiltiy spike low to 128 ,,but thats about it ,not all time low at 118...
  • #223,364
  • May 5, 2010 1:49pm May 5, 2010 1:49pm
Quoting fullhouse
no..i mean a new low to 130 MAX slight possibiltiy spike low to 128 ,,but thats about it ,not all time low at 118...
Very possible. . .

But I would say lets take out support at 139.40 for starters. . . then see what we do when we get to 133. . .
  • #223,365
  • May 5, 2010 1:54pm May 5, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting quecee5
Very possible. . .

But I would say lets take out support at 139.40 for starters. . . then see what we do when we get to 133. . .
Agreed... my sights have been set around there for awhile, but I'll most likely jump out a bit early (140ish) and rest on the sidelines for awhile. That area is gonna be pretty interesting!
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  • #223,366
  • May 5, 2010 1:56pm May 5, 2010 1:56pm
look at this weekly chart..if we close on friday at these low levels ,then we are forming a perfect evening star ,,that mean reversals and continue with downtrend...
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  • #223,367
  • May 5, 2010 1:57pm May 5, 2010 1:57pm
Now, retrace back to pivot?
  • #223,368
  • May 5, 2010 2:01pm May 5, 2010 2:01pm
1H closed below 141.50 and as crazy as it sounds does not look grossly oversold yet. 4H is far from oversold. This could be one of those "I don't retrace but simply consolidate then drop again" type falls.
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  • #223,369
  • May 5, 2010 2:02pm May 5, 2010 2:02pm
Quoting fullhouse
look at this weekly chart..if we close on friday at these low levels ,then we are forming a perfect evening star ,,that mean reversals and continue with downtrend...
Well - we still have 2 full days of trading and a lot of excitement ahead of us. Anything can happen between now and Friday. .. Let's take another look after today's close and when Asia returns to the market. . .

Keep in mind with all this movement in geppy we are only 450 pips lower/off the high since last week. . . A 250/300 pip move north could change the game completely. . .
  • #223,370
  • May 5, 2010 2:05pm May 5, 2010 2:05pm
Quoting Geppy
1H closed below 141.50 and as crazy as it sounds does not look grossly oversold yet. 4H is far from oversold. This could be one of those "I don't retrace but simply consolidate then drop again" type falls.

yes

dont jump out too soon
go back in June

jk
  • #223,371
  • May 5, 2010 2:08pm May 5, 2010 2:08pm
I'd imagine we retest 142/25/50 (somewhere in there), but I'm not covering any shorts. I'll wait and add when we get there for a trip below 140.00
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  • #223,372
  • May 5, 2010 2:13pm May 5, 2010 2:13pm
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  • #223,373
  • May 5, 2010 2:37pm May 5, 2010 2:37pm
Quoting Allseeingeye
Piters NO OFFENCE but they are SENDING THE RIGHT MESSAGE TO THE WORLD FORGET EU. If we dont stand up against this MAFIA MURDERING THIEVES we wont be talking on FF much longer they will ROB EVERYTHING. Look at Iceland they dont have to pay the BANKSTER FRAUDSTERS BACK! SCREW THE NEW WORLD (DIS) ORDER
  • #223,374
  • May 5, 2010 2:38pm May 5, 2010 2:38pm
gbp,jpy ،

,
,
gartely
air pocket
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  • #223,375
  • May 5, 2010 2:58pm May 5, 2010 2:58pm
my view is based on my own personal analysis aswell as those of fellow traders here !
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  • #223,376
  • Edited 3:35pm May 5, 2010 3:20pm | Edited 3:35pm
Ok, so I know I've been posting a lot today (probably too much) but here is my view for those looking to get or add shorts...

And my apologies for the detail lacking chart but all I have access to is Netdania right now.

IF we get a sizeable retracement from here I would expect us to target one of two areas... either the 50% fibo of our move down from 144ish which lies around 142.64 (chart #1) OR the 50% fibo of the most recent move down this afternoon after our consolidation we had. This comes in at about 142.03 (chart #2).

With scenario #1 we not only have the 50% fibo, but it's the confluence of all the consolidation we had this afternoon. This area should serve as some great resistance and prime shorting. You can also look back on last night's PA (easily seen on this chart) and notice how we bounced at this same level before going up further to create and complete a bear flag. Lots of reason to believe this area will hold.

Going on to scenario #2 it's quite evident that the 142.00 zone had served as great support. You can even go to higher timeframes and see how this area offered support late last month on the way up to 145.

A last (non-pictured scenario) would be very little consolidation and movement at current levels until Asia comes in. Asia could definitely take us immediately lower with very little correction.

Suggested strategies depends on your tolerance for risk:

Aggressive traders could sell their full sized position at the 142 zone, thinking we won't see much more of a correction.

Moderate traders could sell half at 142 and the other half at 142.50/60ish area.

Conservative traders could wait for their entire entry at 142.50/60ish.

Don't forget, you can always add as it drops (my favorite thing to do). If we drop hard from here without a retracement and you don't have shorts on already... well, that's no fun but it's much more fun than getting your clock cleaned. There's always tomorrow!


EDIT: also of note is that we're below the 4H 200ema for the first time since late March which also comes in right around 142.00...
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  • #223,377
  • May 5, 2010 3:33pm May 5, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting Geppy
Ok, so I know I've been posting a lot today (probably too much) but here is my view for those looking to get or add shorts...

And my apologies for the detail lacking chart but all I have access to is Netdania right now.

IF we get a sizeable retracement from here I would expect us to target one of two areas... either the 50% fibo of our move down from 144ish which lies around 142.64 (chart #1) OR the 50% fibo of the most recent move down this afternoon after our consolidation we had. This comes in at about 142.03 (chart #2).

With...
YIP..142.25 is a fib & close to an confluence area and its the 200 EMA on 4 hour ,,,
  • #223,378
  • May 5, 2010 3:36pm May 5, 2010 3:36pm
i bought gj... and my tp 142.55 den i will short from der if it stablize between 142.70 and 142.50..
  • #223,379
  • May 5, 2010 3:57pm May 5, 2010 3:57pm
or, like me... noob traders... once i see a confirmation for short, i jump in - no matter if here, 142 or 142.50.

Quoting Geppy
...

Suggested strategies depends on your tolerance for risk:

Aggressive traders could sell their full sized position at the 142 zone, thinking we won't see much more of a correction.

Moderate traders could sell half at 142 and the other half at 142.50/60ish area.

Conservative traders could wait for their entire entry at 142.50/60ish.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,380
  • May 5, 2010 4:00pm May 5, 2010 4:00pm
Quoting Scrat
or, like me... noob traders... once i see a confirmation for short, i jump in - no matter if here, 142 or 142.50.
Well yes, if you're like me you start selling at 142 and then every 15 pips north from there
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
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