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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,801
  • May 5, 2010 1:49am May 5, 2010 1:49am
Quoting Cyrus
I think this is general risk aversion across the board. Triggered of course by the EZ situation.

We could see markets go from "recovery! recovery! recovery" to
"recovery! eurozone...goldman sachs... recovery" to
"goldman sach! EURO ZONE! EURO ZONE!!!" arrggghhh...
[size=3]
[size=2]so even great S&P 500 EPS and ISM manuf data... which was pretty damn good was discounted. if this data was out last month, the market would be cheery as tweety on speed.

the way i see it, it's what news the...
when dollar hits the fan, the news reads that countries are switching away from the greenback as the reserve currency etc..

when euro hits the fan, talk is that euro will be disbanded etc..

it's all about pushing the limit when you are short dollar or short euro, lol.

the ECB is conservative but not stupid.

regards,
  • #14,802
  • May 5, 2010 3:03am May 5, 2010 3:03am
1 eu = 1 usd soon , n then a holiday in europe will be 30% cheaper
so we all meeting in Amsterdam soon ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,803
  • May 5, 2010 3:19am May 5, 2010 3:19am
Quoting piccolo
when dollar hits the fan, the news reads that countries are switching away from the greenback as the reserve currency etc..

when euro hits the fan, talk is that euro will be disbanded etc..

it's all about pushing the limit when you are short dollar or short euro, lol.

the ECB is conservative but not stupid.

regards,
yeah. agree. it's sentiment gone to an extreme... real bad PMS. Heh.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,804
  • May 5, 2010 3:22am May 5, 2010 3:22am
Quoting maheswara
1 eu = 1 usd soon , n then a holiday in europe will be 30% cheaper
so we all meeting in Amsterdam soon ?
full circle, that is where most of this started. I 'll buy you a nice beer.
  • #14,805
  • May 5, 2010 4:22am May 5, 2010 4:22am
Quoting maheswara
1 eu = 1 usd soon , n then a holiday in europe will be 30% cheaper
so we all meeting in Amsterdam soon ?
By the time we meet in Amsterdam, eur/usd will be 1.44
  • #14,806
  • May 5, 2010 4:44am May 5, 2010 4:44am
Quoting maheswara
1 eu = 1 usd soon , n then a holiday in europe will be 30% cheaper
so we all meeting in Amsterdam soon ?
I'm glad the £ is gaining on the € as I have some large € bills to pay
  • #14,807
  • May 5, 2010 4:49am May 5, 2010 4:49am
Quoting fti
) you want let the cat out of the bag and create new gremlins?

regards
As we can see, the cat is out of the bag. Who like gremlins? Anyone brave enough to start the spiral within spiral discussion?
  • #14,808
  • May 5, 2010 5:17am May 5, 2010 5:17am
Quoting Zoran
As we can see, the cat is out of the bag. Who like gremlins? Anyone brave enough to start the spiral within spiral discussion?
Not me certainly for lack of understanding. I think Mamood intended to share his view on this. Mamood....you reading this ?
  • #14,809
  • May 5, 2010 5:19am May 5, 2010 5:19am
anybody has any primer on the comments from buba ? I am away from my trading desk, operating from a laptop atm.
  • #14,810
  • May 5, 2010 5:20am May 5, 2010 5:20am
Buba spoke and he is worried. Anyone seen Trichet recently?
  • #14,811
  • May 5, 2010 5:26am May 5, 2010 5:26am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
anybody has any primer on the comments from buba ? I am away from my trading desk, operating from a laptop atm.
Ooops, just saw your post. He is worried about the Greece contagion, and is encouraging Germany to contribute to the aid package. He sees the current situation as posing a risk to stability (ya think?), and the monetary union.
  • #14,812
  • May 5, 2010 5:26am May 5, 2010 5:26am
Quoting fti
Hi auxesis,
I spiral within spirals, but this is complicated.
There are no rules, It depends on experience.
The change is dependent on several factors,
form, depending on the rhytym,
shape, depending on the volitility and sigma,
book, depending on foreign capital levels,
When aggressive, I skip rightwards levels of progressions,
when defensive, I skip leftwards levels of progressions.

That is why you sometime see me stay a progression, a few times , before moving along. This stay is the precursor to the mode change that will come by. This is not...
Something to think about.
  • #14,813
  • May 5, 2010 5:27am May 5, 2010 5:27am
Quoting GEfx
Buba spoke and he is worried. Anyone seen Trichet recently?
looks like nothing much, may have to wait until the data from US maybe ?
  • #14,814
  • May 5, 2010 5:29am May 5, 2010 5:29am
Quoting fti
Thanks, I 'll try.

Scouts are still out on the Eur and cable on the long of usd.
My size, is sized up , and working at X5.(within Spiral)

Position will add in if on same side, otherwise positions will be fully reversed at x5- carry.
current P&L is c/f.inclusive of swap pips.

I shall show blotter after the fact, and when free to do so, to focus energies to market pulsing.

Battlestations.

Show the way.
More...
  • #14,815
  • May 5, 2010 5:31am May 5, 2010 5:31am
Quoting GEfx
Buba spoke and he is worried. Anyone seen Trichet recently?
Haven't heard from the guy since he spoke in front of the German parliament. Something's up

Momo's gone now, all eyes on US indexes today - this could turn really ugly should they not compensate some of yesterday's plunge.

All hail the well forgotten Keynesian recovery. The wheel keeps on turning.
  • #14,816
  • May 5, 2010 5:32am May 5, 2010 5:32am
Quoting fti
maheswara, try not to follow me now, dance to your norm.

I am getting into level 5, so if I rescue , its gonna be big in ratio to my norm. The fact that I may have to invove level 6, is making me hedge accross currencies to weigh the attack heavy if I have to. This requires me to spiral within the spiral to leverage on that the attack, if it comes. The deficit of not having much foreign cap since returning from my holidays is not a plus factor. Therefore I have to impliment te level 6s very carefully. Parts of level 5 is already in positions.

regards

Level...
This one gives some good clues.
  • #14,817
  • May 5, 2010 5:33am May 5, 2010 5:33am
Quoting fti
low vol increase size, then high vol appears and you are sitting duck. "impatience & greed knows no bounds".
Only way clear then is expanding spiral within spiral. The safe path is spiral within apiral contraction.
Another mention here.
  • #14,818
  • Edited 5:50am May 5, 2010 5:36am | Edited 5:50am
Quoting fti
Why is it that I do not believe this sac chap has the marbles.
Spiral 3,


Its a euro cable sequense.

long is on cable.
Spiral across currencies?
  • #14,819
  • May 5, 2010 5:37am May 5, 2010 5:37am
Quoting fti
OMG 2nd spiral on, this is balls breaking me.oouch.

Making much Long cable /Eur now.
2nd mentions other pairs.
  • #14,820
  • Edited 5:57am May 5, 2010 5:47am | Edited 5:57am
So anyone else thinking what I'm thinking about spirals within spirals? I suspect that playing with them can get a bit spikey!
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