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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,201
  • May 4, 2010 11:29am May 4, 2010 11:29am
Quoting quecee5
I have one word for you - Politics. . .
If there's anything that history has... err should have taught us is that politics can only lie for so long.
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  • #223,202
  • May 4, 2010 11:30am May 4, 2010 11:30am
Quoting ukdaytrader
OK, here's my take, (and a good many market commentators):

UK is £180 Billion in debt, Cameron has promised to cut £6B immediately if he wins. Brown has promised to keep the economy pumped-up for another 18 months. Markets seem to prefer the cut approach, as it promises action rather than rhetoric and will at least start to deal with the problems.

Make no mistake, the market will punish Sterling if Brown wins on Thursday. 151 isn't so unrealistic if you think about it. After all, we seem happy enough to predict 132 or 134 don't we?...
Don't think we will see 500 pips in one pop - However I do think we will see positioning leading up to the day of the event in 100-200 pip increments one way or the other and then maybe a 100-150 pip move on the news with tug-a-war either side. . .
  • #223,203
  • May 4, 2010 11:34am May 4, 2010 11:34am
Quoting Geppy
If there's anything that history has... err should have taught us is that politics can only lie for so long.
Yup and it will soon come to a head but the "big question" is when???? Look how long G.W. Bush BS the market before it crashed? 8 long years - go figure. . .
  • #223,204
  • May 4, 2010 11:51am May 4, 2010 11:51am
Quoting Geppy
Ok, so maybe I still don't know anything... ok false statement, I know I don't know anything but I'm quite confused as to why everyone is long-term bullish when we have yet to see any sort of bullish confirmation.
Personally I am 100% right on with all you said. I think personally I speculate that there will be one more run up that effects GJ before this bail out bubble bursts to make the fall more spectacular. But it is defiantly not something worth putting money on at this point.

And I also agree that the repeated rejections at the 145-146 level are really starting to take a lot of the wind out of the idea of any sustained time above those levels.

As a retail trader also the down moves happen so much quicker it makes a lot of sense to have bearish bias and look for highs to short from considering when the down move happens you can get in and out of the trade much quicker and reduce your risk.

It is just a question of riding the last flare ups from the bail out bubble or riding the fundamental realities of large changes in the role of major economies taking place.

The transfer of economic leadership from west to east is going to be an ongoing thing for many years and the role of the western economies in this future is not clear at all at this point, but it does seem clear that some major downward corrections in the western currencies are in order to facilitate this reconstruction.

I am going to quit going long on this pair no matter how rosy things look or how high it goes. I am just going to keep trying to short from the highs with the idea that sooner or later there is going to be a big bear move similar to 08 and I want to be in on it early. If it takes five years to hit the big bear then so be it.
  • #223,205
  • May 4, 2010 11:52am May 4, 2010 11:52am
Looks like we're on our way up to test the broken triangle... should be fun.
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  • #223,206
  • May 4, 2010 12:03pm May 4, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting Geppy
Looks like we're on our way up to test the broken triangle... should be fun.
Yep but the 4hr chart is very bearish so it's just a matter of time before we see it drop further. . . Looks like it might be creating a nice flag on the 1hr chart for a continuation for a move lower. . .
  • #223,207
  • May 4, 2010 12:06pm May 4, 2010 12:06pm
Quoting quecee5
Yep but the 4hr chart is very bearish so it's just a matter of time before we see it drop further. . . Looks like it might be creating a nice flag on the 1hr chart for a continuation for a move lower. . .
Maybe I was misunderstood... "this should be fun" should be translated to let's watch it at best touch 143.50 before it gets slapped back down again.

I'll be adding shorts.
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  • #223,208
  • May 4, 2010 12:08pm May 4, 2010 12:08pm
Quoting fullhouse
how can the gbp get that much stronger from only elections ? and its not even a president like the US ? what happen with the $$ when obahama was elected ? nothing ..... US is kinda much bigger impact than the british ... im clueless in that... but why would it have that much impact...i dont see a rally for days..i only see it for a few hours of 100 to 200 pips and thats about it... how can the election overrun all the bad news piters mention in the last weeks etc... if you can help me,,pls do
Thanks to UKDaytrader for putting the pen to paper on the possible scenarios. I agree with them, but we should also caveat, that there could be a twist that will either not give the reaction we're expecting, or it'll be delayed. We know that's the nature of the game we dabble in, where it is the sole intent of the big boys to screw you out of your $$$, £££ and your homeland currency.

Why the expected move on sterling? Not living there or in the US, and making comparisons between the two economies, I'd say it has to do with perception - real or not - on how much trouble the UK is really in. The post-election period is a opportunity for betterment. Why? (Note of respect to any of my UK friends and colleagues: this is a general perception statement upcoming) UK finances are in huge trouble, and clearly the nation's economic course is unsustainable. Throw in the talk of ratings downgrades (& given it's happened in the UK before), trouble in euroland by association or real £££ exposure, significant GDP defecits, manufacturing/growth issues, shrinking tax revenues, coupled with what we see abroad as a socially & morally troubled society on some levels, and you get to the core of what drives the FX & equity markets: sentiment and perception. (Again, I mean no offense to any UK'ers - am just pointing out the perception and sentiment that's prevalent. Whether and to what extent it's true is a separate matter, thus ignore it at your peril.)

"how can the gbp get that much stronger from only elections ?" It's likely to - whether it's justified, lasting, or should it have gone there or the opposite way is irrelevant. When you think about currency valuations at a higher level and what we're dabbling in, the debates on whatever levels they're at could go on forever, and there's hardly little fairness at play for any currency level. Don't ever forget the big boys will manipulate fundamentals and technical details - that's how they and more importantly the system and our economies in general, make money: verifiable facts, fairness and logic is far down the list, IMHO.
  • #223,209
  • May 4, 2010 12:20pm May 4, 2010 12:20pm
Quoting Beljevina
Thanks to UKDaytrader for putting the pen to paper on the possible scenarios. I agree with them, but we should also caveat, that there could be a twist that will either not give the reaction we're expecting, or it'll be delayed. We know that's the nature of the game we dabble in, where it is the sole intent of the big boys to screw you out of your $$$, £££ and your homeland currency.

Why the expected move on sterling? Not living there or in the US, and making comparisons between the two economies, I'd say it has to do with perception -...

thnx for that info .. im surely will try a blind long with a MM stoploss and see if myself can get a few pips over the elections..
  • #223,210
  • May 4, 2010 12:20pm May 4, 2010 12:20pm
So far GJ is very deceitful today, All i got to say is to get out of this range of 144.45 and 141.87 As long as price is moving around this range GJ will not be giving us daily 250 pip range. Lets be careful and scalp this ranging market. But the volatility is still intact.

Quoting Scrat
for now, you only need to watch two things:

- first, most important, where you move your SL to secure shorts... as i said, resistance above is 143.25, and then 144.09/143.75 (but moving down slowly). for now, IF we manage to go above 143.25 and get a daily close there, then bulls are back - but this is just for this week...
- second, tp is not that important - i mentioned 135.65, uptrend would still be intact even if we go there... but it's just a theoretical tp, price has more chances of reversing earlier.

atm it is going down. let's see for...
  • #223,211
  • Edited 1:41pm May 4, 2010 12:47pm | Edited 1:41pm
Quoting Geppy
£6B immediately? You realize this is just 3.33% right? Big friggin deal. As Fullhouse said... 100-200pips is all it takes for the market to realize this is a non-event. On the other hand, if nothing is done (Brown wins)... this will be a huge event.

Which side would you rather be on?
It's not about figures though is it, it's about perception. Perception is the new reality, especially where markets are concerned.
The market wants the UK to start paying the debt, Cameron is the only candidate who has said he'll start immediately. It's clear rhetoric and markets like that.

£6B may indeed sound like a drop in the proverbial shit-deep ocean, but by the time Brown starts to cut, there is a great chance of the deficit widening even further.

Like I said, it's not about facts and figures, it's about what market wants to do.

GY has been in a pretty flat range now since the start of April and it's no accident IMO.

I don't want any of you suckers crying to me if you see 1000 pip movements between now and next Friday. (14th)
  • #223,212
  • May 4, 2010 12:54pm May 4, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting quecee5
Here is what I'm looking at on a micro level as an initial set-up. . .
Let's see how it plays. . .

aah ha.. ill go def with your view ,, a drop right to the 161.8 at 141.20/40 area and then a pullback to that level scrat mentioned of 143.25/45 for a deeper drop later on ..

i can see a H&S is then forming ,,, i called it one ,dont know if its a perfect one,but it will most likely worked out... if it break the TL at 142.25, then a quick drop to 141.20/40 at the neckline of the H&S ,then we need a pullback to 143.25/45 to form the right shoulder. and so will we reach 138/136

only imagination,but it worked out most of the times!
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  • #223,213
  • May 4, 2010 1:04pm May 4, 2010 1:04pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I don't want any of you suckers crying to me if you see 1000 pip movements between now and next Friday.
I'm not sure it's going to be easy to know where/how to get in ... I'm not yet positioned, other than some minor shorts. But we will be crying if we're caught on the wrong side!!!
  • #223,214
  • May 4, 2010 1:20pm May 4, 2010 1:20pm
The markets perception might be priced in by Friday so the reaction could be muted like in most cases. . . It's the whoopola/anticipation leading up to the news and announcements is where the action is. . .

"Big Boys" already have a general idea where the market is headed and where price will be or stopped on Friday and they are positioning for that. A 1,000 pip move in a day I just don't see that happening not in today's market. . . 3-4 years ago yes but in todays choppy tight range market. Nahhhhhhhhhhhh

I think this topic is being way overblown. . . Cutting the deficit why would that drive price up or down?
  • #223,215
  • May 4, 2010 1:38pm May 4, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
It's not about figures though is it, it's about perception. Perception is the new reality, especially where markets are concerned.
The market wants the UK to start paying the debt, Cameron is the only candidate who has said he'll start immediately. It's clear rhetoric and markets like that.

£6B may indeed sound like a drop in the proverbial shit-deep ocean, but by the time Brown starts to cut, there is a great chance of the deficit widening even further.

Like I said, it's not about facts and figures, it's about what market wants to do.

GY...

An excellent, eloquent encapsulation of what I was trying to say earlier...
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #223,216
  • May 4, 2010 1:38pm May 4, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting quecee5
The markets perception might be priced in by Friday so the reaction could be muted like in most cases. . . It's the whoopola/anticipation leading up to the news and announcements is where the action is. . .

"Big Boys" already have a general idea where the market is headed and where price will be or stopped on Friday and they are positioning for that. A 1,000 pip move in a day I just don't see that happening not in today's market. . . 3-4 years ago yes but in todays choppy tight range market. Nahhhhhhhhhhhh

I think this topic...
I didn't say in a day, I said in the few days/week afterwards.
I think you're correct in saying the big boys have been positioning, but I haven't seen so much of it with Sterling. (there has been some considerable positioning with USD I think). Like I said, GY has ranged for the past month and not even the sharpest political minds here in the UK have any clue how the numbers will stack up on Friday. This tells me we could see some fireworks.

Overblown, well maybe, but markets want well run government and the Conservatives have always prided themselves on that premise. It's not the cutting of the deficit itself that matters, moreover the fact they are starting to deal with it rather than wait another 18 months. (And believe me, the Tories know how to cut).

It may of course be priced-in in one form or another, but it's not easy pricing in a result which is a coin toss.

Like I said beofre, just throwing this stuff out there. We'll soon know what will happen come Thursday eve, (EST).

And then there's NFP......
  • #223,217
  • May 4, 2010 1:54pm May 4, 2010 1:54pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I didn't say in a day, I said in the few days/week afterwards.
I think you're correct in saying the big boys have been positioning, but I haven't seen so much of it with Sterling. (there has been some considerable positioning with USD I think). Like I said, GY has ranged for the past month and not even the sharpest political minds here in the UK have any clue how the numbers will stack up on Friday. This tells me we could see some fireworks.

Overblown, well maybe, but markets want well run government and the Conservatives have always...
Agreed - only the privy knows all else is a crap shoot at best. . . Just have to hope when it happens you're on the right side of the trade if one is brave enough to take the challenge. . .

Friday we will all see as stated. . .
  • #223,218
  • May 4, 2010 2:42pm May 4, 2010 2:42pm
Oh what I wouldn't give for a day like those in 2008 where the DOW drops 100-200 points in the last 20 minutes of trading...
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  • #223,219
  • May 4, 2010 3:00pm May 4, 2010 3:00pm
Can anyone (UK expats?) recommend a web TV site/service that will allow us to watch election coverage via one of the UK networks? I'd like to get a 'feel' as the results come in, and I recall that the BBC feed/site does an IP check to verify you're in the UK. I normally watch Bloomberg during the trading day, & I don't think they're having anything live/relevant on UK (Thursday) evening time.

(UKDayTrader - wasn't sure whether to post this here or the vote thread ... kind of wish one could cross post sometimes.)
  • #223,220
  • May 4, 2010 3:15pm May 4, 2010 3:15pm
Quoting Geppy
Oh what I wouldn't give for a day like those in 2008 where the DOW drops 100-200 points in the last 20 minutes of trading...
I wasn't trading fx then, but I was thinkin' about that today (we really should have had GJ tankage just now as NY closed, but GU retraced heavily and UJ tankage (finally!) wasn't enough) ... so, the alternative I thought was, Japan wakes up and reacts to NY, then London wakes up and reacts to Japan, then NY wakes up and reacts to London, then Japan wakes up and reacts to NY ... and round 'nd round we go on the bear-y go round and we shave off hundreds of pip per day ...
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