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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,781
  • May 4, 2010 9:47am May 4, 2010 9:47am
Quoting auxesis
Oh my!

Speaking of drinking, not sexy legs.. my favorite beer commercials, the Budweiser Lizards.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aS3op_7QVIY
+10
  • #14,782
  • May 4, 2010 10:04am May 4, 2010 10:04am
squared, eyes open e/u 3022 area.
  • #14,783
  • May 4, 2010 10:09am May 4, 2010 10:09am
Quoting lilpip
squared, eyes open e/u 3022 area.
Yep, this thing continues to move. Do you have anything below 3022? I have 3002, then who knows?
  • #14,784
  • May 4, 2010 10:13am May 4, 2010 10:13am
Quoting GEfx
Yep, this thing continues to move. Do you have anything below 3022? I have 3002, then who knows?
looking at last 3 quarters i have to consider quarterly low 2914 area as an area of interest.
  • #14,785
  • May 4, 2010 10:19am May 4, 2010 10:19am
Quoting lilpip
looking at last 3 quarters i have to consider quarterly low 2914 area as an area of interest.
got it, thanks!
  • #14,786
  • Edited 2:16pm May 4, 2010 11:46am | Edited 2:16pm
A potential bailout for Spain would cost around 400B EUR. A rumor leaked today that the Spanish PM has asked for help - good thing he stepped up and denied it.
Market's entering a more congested zone now - 1,30 should be enough for the day, IMHO. It's been a while since I last saw such an aggressive rally on the EUR... Time for NY boys to grab a snack and for London boys to go home - with all markets deeply in the red an active NY afternoon will most likely test 1,30 big time...

Edit: 1,30 got hit and rumor has it it was BIS that stepped in to buy some and push it back... Hah, we live in interesting times.
  • #14,787
  • May 4, 2010 3:50pm May 4, 2010 3:50pm
Quoting Setebos
A potential bailout for Spain would cost around 400B EUR. A rumor leaked today that the Spanish PM has asked for help - good thing he stepped up and denied it.
Market's entering a more congested zone now - 1,30 should be enough for the day, IMHO. It's been a while since I last saw such an aggressive rally on the EUR... Time for NY boys to grab a snack and for London boys to go home - with all markets deeply in the red an active NY afternoon will most likely test 1,30 big time...

Edit: 1,30 got hit and rumor has it it was BIS that stepped in to...
I am seeing 1.2986 right now, and still drifting lower, so BIS is not in yet, but would expect to see the ECB jump in soon, perhaps coordinated with Fed, but as fti said, the BOJ may be out on Holiday this week. Interesting times, indeed.
  • #14,788
  • May 4, 2010 4:08pm May 4, 2010 4:08pm
so interesting i wished i didn't need to sleep..... Expect the unexpected.....
  • #14,789
  • May 4, 2010 4:15pm May 4, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting GEfx
I am seeing 1.2986 right now, and still drifting lower, so BIS is not in yet, but would expect to see the ECB jump in soon, perhaps coordinated with Fed, but as fti said, the BOJ may be out on Holiday this week. Interesting times, indeed.
You've got a declining wedge forming in the short charts which is about to reach it's apex, question is when she breaks are we going to see a retrace, or just eastern consolidation. Not much reason to look up for the moment.
  • #14,790
  • Edited 4:43pm May 4, 2010 4:28pm | Edited 4:43pm
I wonder , if the ECB feels courage or shame.
I wonder, I wonder
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: courage.jpg Size: 200 KB
  • #14,791
  • May 4, 2010 4:31pm May 4, 2010 4:31pm
The Eur is being destroyed even in the twilight zone...

fti, I see you are browsing the forum, would you have the time to share your opinion on the current situation? I believe I'm not the only one who'd love to hear it

Edit: oops, seems you posted while I was writing
  • #14,792
  • May 4, 2010 4:39pm May 4, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting auxesis
You've got a declining wedge forming in the short charts which is about to reach it's apex, question is when she breaks are we going to see a retrace, or just eastern consolidation. Not much reason to look up for the moment.
Or the obvious answer when people can't get rid of their euros quick enough, it breaks out the bottom, lol

TIMBER
  • #14,793
  • Edited 5:18pm May 4, 2010 4:52pm | Edited 5:18pm
Quoting Setebos
The Eur is being destroyed even in the twilight zone...

fti, I see you are browsing the forum, would you have the time to share your opinion on the current situation? I believe I'm not the only one who'd love to hear it

Edit: oops, seems you posted while I was writing
Hi Setebos,

There is no situation. The shit hit the fan for the euro and her CB doesn't know what to do.
Like I always say, you may have bias. But you need trade the dance. I had been selling and buying back and selling and buying back. if she wants to drop to zero. I will sell until she stops falling.
But you need watch the MM. Even dead cats can bounce.
this seems not dead cat, the rotting has begun. Try bear with the smell, until help comes along.
If you had been selling your cost should be very very high.
If you size down to half. you can survive any bounce.
but if you also have nimbleness, then you can enjoy the best of both worlds.

13000 is key levels so be alert to how they treat her. The fact is there are no buyer in thin markets and without, our rising sun. feel the market is very very short. Brace for all possibilities. Both ways will be swift and deadly, so watch the MM.

regards

PS a word about professional trading. If some had not noticed. We never think. its all reflexes. If you think, you will be in trouble. Just listen for fundementals drivers and respond to the trend(technicals/charts) best you can. Traders crystal ball and they will be slaughtered. No question whether they will, its when.

The intelectuals seems not able to let go the old dogs, and we know they are the ones in trouble now. For the "river people", its been a ball.
  • #14,794
  • May 4, 2010 5:11pm May 4, 2010 5:11pm

Me.
Attached Image
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #14,795
  • May 4, 2010 5:17pm May 4, 2010 5:17pm
Hi fti, I hope you are well and it is good to hear from you. It is getting warmer here so summer is upon us.

I think your comment about ECB is very telling. Where have they been the last few weeks? They seem to be not in control now, which is not good. Spain, Portugal, and Italy are next up, and they are a much bigger problems for EU. Greece is no longer Greece problem, but Europe problem since they are making the big loan and it's on their book now.

Staying short until Trichet steps up.
  • #14,796
  • May 4, 2010 5:18pm May 4, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting luSan

Me.
LOL -- get 'em!
  • #14,797
  • Edited 5:41pm May 4, 2010 5:22pm | Edited 5:41pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi fti, I hope you are well and it is good to hear from you. It is getting warmer here so summer is upon us.

I think your comment about ECB is very telling. Where have they been the last few weeks? They seem to be not in control now, which is not good. Spain, Portugal, and Italy are next up, and they are a much bigger problems for EU. Greece is no longer Greece problem, but Europe problem since they are making the big loan and it's on their book now.

Staying short until Trichet steps up.
haven't you noticed?
everytime that one speaks the euro bites the dust.
what can we expect from him?
Only hope now for the euro is Buba.
you don't see buba. then the shit continues drip.

In the episode , where Greece was helped, did you hear anything from the ECB? Who helped formulated the Greece rescue. ECB?

Whats happening now is "Structural failure" and "systemic failure". So some one needs plunge the dyke , or the the walls may crumble.

And try not ask me if the walls will crumble. I don't know. I just trading. I 'll just follow the flow. Its not for us to justify sell or buy. Just flow. Let the "papers" boys figure this solution.

regards

Oh and do not mistaken MOF with buba.
Buba is buba. MOF is not buba. If i read correctly, they seem have differing outlooks.
  • #14,798
  • May 4, 2010 8:23pm May 4, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting fti
haven't you noticed?
everytime that one speaks the euro bites the dust.
what can we expect from him?
Only hope now for the euro is Buba.
you don't see buba. then the shit continues drip.

In the episode , where Greece was helped, did you hear anything from the ECB? Who helped formulated the Greece rescue. ECB?

Whats happening now is "Structural failure" and "systemic failure". So some one needs plunge the dyke , or the the walls may crumble.

And try not ask me if the walls will crumble. I don't know. I just trading. I 'll just follow...
Just looked at the FF calendar and buba speaks (twice) tomorrow. Could be interesting since the first speach is on Greece situation.
  • #14,799
  • May 4, 2010 8:26pm May 4, 2010 8:26pm
Quoting fti
I wonder , if the ECB feels courage or shame.
I wonder, I wonder
Haha. G'day sir, I have the same pic.
Mine reads abit diff though.
Attached Image
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,800
  • May 4, 2010 8:34pm May 4, 2010 8:34pm
I think this is general risk aversion across the board. Triggered of course by the EZ situation.

We could see markets go from "recovery! recovery! recovery" to
"recovery! eurozone...goldman sachs... recovery" to
"goldman sach! EURO ZONE! EURO ZONE!!!" arrggghhh...

so even great S&P 500 EPS and ISM manuf data... which was pretty damn good was discounted. if this data was out last month, the market would be cheery as tweety on speed.

the way i see it, it's what news the market chooses to focus on and what it chooses to discount.
One Mind, Any Market
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