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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,181
  • May 4, 2010 9:50am May 4, 2010 9:50am
for now, you only need to watch two things:

- first, most important, where you move your SL to secure shorts... as i said, resistance above is 143.25, and then 144.09/143.75 (but moving down slowly). for now, IF we manage to go above 143.25 and get a daily close there, then bulls are back - but this is just for this week...
- second, tp is not that important - i mentioned 135.65, uptrend would still be intact even if we go there... but it's just a theoretical tp, price has more chances of reversing earlier.

atm it is going down. let's see for how long.

Quoting fullhouse
Q..but the big Question is. to where are we going ,if we get a daily close below 141/142 in the coming days ? i dont wanna drop of the size on 200 pips ,if we are in for 500-1000 pips .. i need the bigger picture, i cant make out heads or tails on this pair ... frustrating
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,182
  • May 4, 2010 9:53am May 4, 2010 9:53am
very nice , thanks!
overall, same view here as well...

Quoting quecee5
Bro looking at the "big picture" weekly. . . Our ultimate goal looks to be ar'd the 150 handle. . . Right now if you draw a fib from the swing high to low off 163-118 you can clearly see we are stuck in a range 61.8%-50.0% range at 146.16/10 - 141 persae. . .

If we get a weekly close below 141 then yes 136 is the target before we see a nice bounce and possibly dn to 134 area on a push. . .

A weekly close above 141 and guess what we are back to ranging some more. . .

Therefore; a break of 146.16/10 with a weekly close above sees 150-153...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,183
  • May 4, 2010 10:06am May 4, 2010 10:06am
Quoting quecee5
Bro looking at the "big picture" weekly. . . Our ultimate goal looks to be ar'd the 150 handle. . . Right now if you draw a fib from the swing high to low off 163-118 you can clearly see we are stuck in a range 61.8%-50.0% range at 146.16/10 - 141 persae. . .

If we get a weekly close below 141 then yes 136 is the target before we see a nice bounce and possibly dn to 134 area on a push. . .

A weekly close above 141 and guess what we are back to ranging some more. . .

Therefore; a break of 146.16/10 with a weekly close above sees 150-153...
Q ..i just add the 200 ema.. look at the 4 hour ,the 200 ema sit right on the LTL of the trianlge at 143.25/35 ,and a bounce is MOST LIKELY to the 78.6 on top at 144.30 somewehre ,and we can short aagin from that...so yip im exit my entry very soon ,and load up again @ 144.20 somewehre.. this is my view ,,and will play this messy triangle,,if it is one,,still need a TL at the bottom ,

but 143.25 is in the way and that we might not get passed that level again..but we will see
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  • #223,184
  • May 4, 2010 10:07am May 4, 2010 10:07am
GJ, EJ, GU & EU among others are participating nicely in the stock market slaughter: London's down 2.6%, erasing 2010 gains , S&P down 2%, France 3%, bond yields are in the toilet ... just checking if 142.6 support will hold; things tend to consolidate around this time of day, with volume disappating - I'm still not seeing stopping volume equivalent to what was needed many days ago, when there was not this much bearishness and momentum, so IMHO we will keep going, but that's a huge caveat ... let's see how Europe equity markets close. Geppy's point is well taken - assuming Tokyo responds with a equity selloff, just not sure if there would be shift to safety of the yen, thereby driving down yen crosses further. Any input is appreciated.

P.S. - Obamaspeak underway on Bloomberg ... terrorism related - buyers/sellers beware! He's praising the economy!!! - Good thing there's no TV on nearby!
P.S. - Also wanted to mention the EURUSD carnage is seeing buying by state banks on the way down, but smart money is shorting, and the battle is major. Can't help but think 1.3000 might be a possible bottom today; worst case is further plummeting once Europe equities close - it's almost a M5 game at this point!
  • #223,185
  • May 4, 2010 10:10am May 4, 2010 10:10am
Quoting Scrat
very nice , thanks!
overall, same view here as well...
Scrat the weekly chart speaks volumes and the real buying opportunity was at the 131 which will be defended by the bulls. . . All the in-between ranging is what it is. . .just that ranging moving nowhere fast. . .

The weekly chart clearly states buy dips and has a level of massive support probably ar'd the 139.40 area for now not to say we couldn't see dips below that but I don't see any move close to 131 for now. . .

So if one is not short already best thing is to either stay out until we get a clear breakout or watch the daily close then decide. . .

The daily range = 146.44 - 145.53 - 144.80 - 143.89 - 143.16 - 142.25 - 141.25

I mention this for anyone looking to get in. . . A close below the DPP but above 143.16 will likely challenge the DPP before heading lower so a good entry could be at DPP with a failure to close a 4hr candle above. . .

A close below S1 @ 143.16 will likely see 142.25 if we haven't already reached it by the close. . . if we move lower to S2 then more than likely we will see a bounce back to DPP before heading lower. . . to 141.25 and lower. . .

Likewise a 4hr close above DPP and you know the story. . . Just some nuggets for those looking to jump in in-between PA. . . but look for solid res/supp before taking the plunge. . .

The PA is telling us something just have to read the writing on the wall based on a daily close. . .
  • #223,186
  • May 4, 2010 10:17am May 4, 2010 10:17am
Quoting fullhouse
Q ..i just add the 200 ema.. look at the 4 hour ,the 200 ema sit right on the LTL of the trianlge at 143.25/35 ,and a bounce is MOST LIKELY to the 78.6 on top at 144.30 somewehre ,and we can short aagin from that...so yip im exit my entry very soon ,and load up again @ 144.20 somewehre.. this is my view ,,and will play this messy triangle,,if it is one,,still need a TL at the bottom ,

but 143.25 is in the way and that we might not get passed that level again..but we will see
Fullhouse - look at that picture again. . . The 200 ema sits right at daily S2 @ 142.25 which should see a bounce there if it lacks momentum. . . As long as we get a daily close below 143.16/25 then 142.25 is the target. . . A close above that will see DPP get challenged again. . .

Not seeing 144.30 nowhere in the picture at this point. . .

If the 4hr 200 ema is taken with a daily close below then 141.50 is the target where I see a dbl bottom or a breach whichever comes first. . . then we'll have to see how PA reacts down there and re-evaluate. . .
  • #223,187
  • May 4, 2010 10:29am May 4, 2010 10:29am
Quoting Beljevina
GJ, EJ, GU & EU among others are participating nicely in the stock market slaughter: London's down 2.6%, erasing 2010 gains , S&P down 2%, France 3%, bond yields are in the toilet ... just checking if 142.6 support will hold; things tend to consolidate around this time of day, with volume disappating - I'm still not seeing stopping volume equivalent to what was needed many days ago, when there was not this much bearishness and momentum, so IMHO we will keep going, but that's a huge caveat ... let's see how Europe equity markets...
Beljevina - very nice statement indeed. . .

Here is my take and I know someone asked for senior members to comment from a news/eco whoopola stand point so here it goes. . .

IMO what we are/could be seeing is the same move as last week. . . for a nice set-up for the US jobs data to be released on Friday. . . In which I think we will see good numbers as the job market here in the US is opening up and hiring is taking place. . .

What we must watch for is a dbl bottom at 141.50/25 area or a failure to put in a new weekly low - meaning if we get support at 142.25 then we would have seen a higher low on the week.

OR

If we put in a dble bottom and fail to make a new low then we are still range bound and we will see the weekly range top on the news whoopola with buying starting 2morrow/thursday into Friday's news with weekly top at 145.65 1st target. . .

Weekly range is as follows - 141.25 - 143.61(wpp) - 145.65

Just my take looking at PA as the move lower is slow and the weekly momentum looks to be upward once the BS move is completed and all have bought for the run-up. . .

Not to say that we could see a sell-off after that but just saying what the possible play could be and I do say could. . .
  • #223,188
  • May 4, 2010 10:33am May 4, 2010 10:33am
Quoting quecee5
Fullhouse - look at that picture again. . . The 200 ema sits right at daily S2 @ 142.25 which should see a bounce there if it lacks momentum. . . As long as we get a daily close below 143.16/25 then 142.25 is the target. . . A close above that will see DPP get challenged again. . .

Not seeing 144.30 nowhere in the picture at this point. . .

If the 4hr 200 ema is taken with a daily close below then 141.50 is the target where I see a dbl bottom or a breach whichever comes first. . . then we'll have to see how PA reacts down there...

oh,,then i dont know... but ill decide later after daily close ..
  • #223,189
  • May 4, 2010 10:46am May 4, 2010 10:46am
We avoid the UK election this week at our peril. A result which has so far been impossible to predict will send Sterling into hyperdrive on Friday.

We've been ranging and this means one thing only IMO; we're waiting for something to shift the PA into forward or reverse. Thus rendering such things as DPPs and WPPs etc irrelevant IMO.

If say, the Conservatives win an outright majority, I can see Sterling jumping 1000 pips in the few days afterwards. If Brown wins, ditto the reverse scenario.

The beauty is no one has a clue right now and that is keeping Sterling in the range for a few more days. UY btw has not jumped on the same southbound train that Sterling and Aussie have.

How about this scenario?
GY continues to move lower, but at a more sedate pace until election night. (141.7).

Cameron wins an outright majority, GY very quickly breaks through 146 on it's way to 150.5 - 151.

OR
Brown outright majority, GY falls hard through the 138 handle with support somewhere at 132 ish.

OR
A hung parliament, GY falls hard until some market news signifying it's not such a bad thing.

One thing that is true for GY and has been ever since I've been trading it is this; UY has to correlate in some fashion. GY cannot tank big unless UY does the same. BUT, it can rally 1000 pips against the other Yen trends.

Just some thoughts.
  • #223,190
  • May 4, 2010 10:47am May 4, 2010 10:47am
Ok, so maybe I still don't know anything... ok false statement, I know I don't know anything but I'm quite confused as to why everyone is long-term bullish when we have yet to see any sort of bullish confirmation.

To me higher timeframes have potential to turn bullish... by this I mean monthly and weekly. Right now, the daily in my opinion is very bearish especially considering we've broken the consolidating triangle (see my earlier post) with certainty. Add to that the fact we've been rejected repeatedly in the last couple weeks from the daily 200ema, the de ja vu like similarity in this pattern as we had in November and then again in January and I really don't see how anyone can be speaking bullish right now. In my opinion there's no reason NOT to be targeting 141.70 initially and then 140.00 (if not 139.00).

Then we have a daily uptrend support come in and what happens from there, I'm not sure. But again, my bias would be for a retracement and then a break of the daily support for a run much lower.

Fundamentals? Well, they're terrible. Europe is a mess as well as the UK's soaring debt. Even if the conservatives win out the election there is a huge mess to clean up and that's not going to happen overnight. Anyone thinking there is a quick solution to the problems over there is a fool.

US jobs report? Firstly, people are far too optimistic... secondly, when is the last time you recall this having a deciding directional affect on GBP/JPY? All I remember is a tug of war as the number is USD based and we see GBP/USD and USD/JPY fighting it out only to end in a wash and us to resume whatever directional bias we had to begin with.

Last week we had Bernanke mention that if we don't start raising rates soon we may be putting the (so called) "recovery" in danger. This just so happened to be conveniently released when GS was being grilled and nobody was paying much attention to helicopter Ben. Buffet started flapping his mouth about a number of issues this week... both having a hint of warning while trying to remain upbeat (avoid instilling panick). In my experience, when Buffet starts chiming in it's a sign that the US is using their last ammunition to prop up the markets.

Speaking of the markets... I've never seen something so overbought with so little warrant. Can anyone think of a reason why we should be trading at all near 11,000? The only answer I could even dream up is that the markets are starting to price-in inflation... and that's not a good one!

So please, someone give me some substantial reason why we should expect a long bullish trend. I for one would love to "buy the dips" and ride this baby to 160, 180, 200 and beyond... let rates rise and collect premiums, hardly having to think about how to trade just like the old days. But honestly what reason(s) do we have to believe that this could remotely happen.

Again, the way I see it is that we're getting rejected from higher levels technically and fundamentals are not speaking as though we can be calling for a breakout. It seems like everyone is trying to pick the bottom and ignoring the larger overall trend.

Please help make sense of this for a simple minded n00b.

Geppy
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  • #223,191
  • May 4, 2010 10:49am May 4, 2010 10:49am
Quoting fullhouse
oh,,then i dont know... but ill decide later after daily close ..
Here is what I'm looking at on a micro level as an initial set-up. . .
Let's see how it plays. . .
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  • #223,192
  • May 4, 2010 11:00am May 4, 2010 11:00am
Quoting ukdaytrader
We avoid the UK election this week at our peril. A result which has so far been impossible to predict will send Sterling into hyperdrive on Friday.

We've been ranging and this means one thing only IMO; we're waiting for something to shift the PA into forward or reverse. Thus rendering such things as DPPs and WPPs etc irrelevant IMO.

If say, the Conservatives win an outright majority, I can see Sterling jumping 1000 pips in the few days afterwards. If Brown wins, ditto the reverse scenario.

The beauty is no one has a clue right now and that...
And yet another monkey wrench thrown into the mix. . .
I agree with your statement wholeheartedly and things will get messy leading up to the actual events. . .

But until then all we have is the charts to go by and major supp and res as a guide until we approach the news day so either we sit on the side-line or we trade the charts as we know them. . .
  • #223,193
  • May 4, 2010 11:01am May 4, 2010 11:01am
Quoting ukdaytrader
We avoid the UK election this week at our peril. A result which has so far been impossible to predict will send Sterling into hyperdrive on Friday.

We've been ranging and this means one thing only IMO; we're waiting for something to shift the PA into forward or reverse. Thus rendering such things as DPPs and WPPs etc irrelevant IMO.

If say, the Conservatives win an outright majority, I can see Sterling jumping 1000 pips in the few days afterwards. If Brown wins, ditto the reverse scenario.

The beauty is no one has a clue right now and that...

how can the gbp get that much stronger from only elections ? and its not even a president like the US ? what happen with the $$ when obahama was elected ? nothing ..... US is kinda much bigger impact than the british ... im clueless in that... but why would it have that much impact...i dont see a rally for days..i only see it for a few hours of 100 to 200 pips and thats about it... how can the election overrun all the bad news piters mention in the last weeks etc... if you can help me,,pls do
  • #223,194
  • May 4, 2010 11:08am May 4, 2010 11:08am
Quoting fullhouse
how can the gbp get that much stronger from only elections ? and its not even a president like the US ? what happen with the $$ when obahama was elected ? nothing ..... US is kinda much bigger impact than the british ... im clueless in that... but why would it have that much impact...i dont see a rally for days..i only see it for a few hours of 100 to 200 pips and thats about it... how can the election overrun all the bad news piters mention in the last weeks etc... if you can help me,,pls do
Thank you for some common sense!
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  • #223,195
  • May 4, 2010 11:17am May 4, 2010 11:17am
Quoting Geppy
Thank you for some common sense!

we will only see a relief rally for a few hours or into friday,then NFP will demolish the camreon bullsih gbp and we back to basics into the bearish trend... i dont know . im agasin on the sideline until i see something pop up..
  • #223,196
  • May 4, 2010 11:23am May 4, 2010 11:23am
Quoting fullhouse
how can the gbp get that much stronger from only elections ? and its not even a president like the US ? what happen with the $$ when obahama was elected ? nothing ..... US is kinda much bigger impact than the british ... im clueless in that... but why would it have that much impact...i dont see a rally for days..i only see it for a few hours of 100 to 200 pips and thats about it... how can the election overrun all the bad news piters mention in the last weeks etc... if you can help me,,pls do
OK, here's my take, (and a good many market commentators):

UK is £180 Billion in debt, Cameron has promised to cut £6B immediately if he wins. Brown has promised to keep the economy pumped-up for another 18 months. Markets seem to prefer the cut approach, as it promises action rather than rhetoric and will at least start to deal with the problems.

Make no mistake, the market will punish Sterling if Brown wins on Thursday. 151 isn't so unrealistic if you think about it. After all, we seem happy enough to predict 132 or 134 don't we?

Throw a good NFP into the mix and Friday could see a +500 pip move.

Let's see though. Just throwing this out there.
  • #223,197
  • May 4, 2010 11:24am May 4, 2010 11:24am
vwap configuration - purple, daily; orange, weekly; and light green, monthly.

see what happened at previous tests of monthly (green) vwap. price tried to break it, and went about 100-140 pips below, then bounced back. this would be the third test, and my guess is that IF we go more than 100-140 pips from monthly vwap (currently @ 143.25 = which makes our critical area @ 142.25/141.85), then drop will continue into 136 area.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,198
  • Edited 11:42am May 4, 2010 11:25am | Edited 11:42am
Quoting Geppy
Ok, so maybe I still don't know anything... ok false statement, I know I don't know anything but I'm quite confused as to why everyone is long-term bullish when we have yet to see any sort of bullish confirmation.

To me higher timeframes have potential to turn bullish... by this I mean monthly and weekly. Right now, the daily in my opinion is very bearish especially considering we've broken the consolidating triangle (see my earlier post) with certainty. Add to that the fact we've been rejected repeatedly in the last couple weeks from...
I have one word for you - Politics. . .

As we've been saying the same thing since the fall to 118 when the market was in an even worst condition than now - meaning on the verge of a collasp but yet the market was bought repeatedly up to 163 granted on intervention but nonetheless it was bought. . .

And with all the so called "bad" news one would think that the market would have seen a new low but yet the Greece and UK info has been in the news for months along with the Dubai and other subpar news and the market is still being bought up - You gotta ask yourself why? Maybe someone knows something that we aren't privy too. . .

In terms of the US job numbers its clearly showing the market is recovering and people are going back to work albeit BS or cook the book numbers the market is convinced we are in a better trend than 2008 and that's what drives what the future holds and thats where positioning comes in based on trends or supposed trends. . .

As for long-term bullish or bearish I think those days are over ATM. . . My ideal of bullish is at least up to 150-153 and will re-evaluate once/if we get there as you know my position from an EW standpoint as I've stated it here before. . . ABC or within wave 5 down. . . that's an ongoing debate at this point and we need further developments to determine if we go to 180 or a new low. . . my vote is we won't see a new low until maybe in Obama's 2nd term as the markets are predicting higher price. . .

Until then we trade the charts day by day, week by week, hour by hour taking our 100-300 pip profit as the market gives it to us and make the best decision we can based on what we see today and the hell with predicting 1000 pips away as the market can turn at a drop of a dime. . .

Just my two cents. . .
  • #223,199
  • May 4, 2010 11:26am May 4, 2010 11:26am
Quoting ukdaytrader
OK, here's my take, (and a good many market commentators):

UK is £180 Billion in debt, Cameron has promised to cut £6B immediately if he wins. Brown has promised to keep the economy pumped-up for another 18 months. Markets seem to prefer the cut approach, as it promises action rather than rhetoric and will at least start to deal with the problems.

Make no mistake, the market will punish Sterling if Brown wins on Thursday. 151 isn't so unrealistic if you think about it. After all, we seem happy enough to predict 132 or 134 don't we?

Throw a...
£6B immediately? You realize this is just 3.33% right? Big friggin deal. As Fullhouse said... 100-200pips is all it takes for the market to realize this is a non-event. On the other hand, if nothing is done (Brown wins)... this will be a huge event.

Which side would you rather be on?
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  • #223,200
  • May 4, 2010 11:28am May 4, 2010 11:28am
Quoting fullhouse
how can the gbp get that much stronger from only elections ? and its not even a president like the US ? what happen with the $$ when obahama was elected ? nothing ..... US is kinda much bigger impact than the british ... im clueless in that... but why would it have that much impact...i dont see a rally for days..i only see it for a few hours of 100 to 200 pips and thats about it... how can the election overrun all the bad news piters mention in the last weeks etc... if you can help me,,pls do
Its all about how the big players view the thought of a Conservative government - many of the CEOs of FTSE companies have already come out strongly supporting them and after the total economic incompetence of Brown over the past years, such a change would be a great relief and 1000 pips north easily achievable - if only to allow the Big Dogs to load up short...http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon11.gif
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