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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,161
  • May 4, 2010 2:48am May 4, 2010 2:48am
i posted this H&S last week and some disagree with me about it ,doesnt matter,,we are now close to the neckline and if we break it,,we can accelerate quick to 1.4930 area ,,so keep that in mind and gbp/jpy will follow ...
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  • #223,162
  • May 4, 2010 2:57am May 4, 2010 2:57am
an here we go..the 30 min chart.. busy with a H&S pattern .. we might retrace now to form the right shoulder,,, and look where sit the 161.8 FE ..right at the 78.6 fib

gl
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  • #223,163
  • May 4, 2010 3:28am May 4, 2010 3:28am
let see what will happen in 2 mins =)
row row row your boat
  • #223,164
  • Edited 8:51am May 4, 2010 3:50am | Edited 8:51am
not sure
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  • #223,165
  • May 4, 2010 4:08am May 4, 2010 4:08am
So far, the pitchfork hasn't been breeched, suggesting the fullhouse's assessment could be correct, if judged by this indicator and it holds up

Daily view.
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  • #223,166
  • May 4, 2010 4:35am May 4, 2010 4:35am
Nice GJ & GU PA. Looks like the 144.85 top/touch of the TL capped the up move. We've gotten ourselves a nice 120+pip H4 bear candle, and I don't expect heading back up until we get to election day or perhaps post-election day, assuming the results align with a need to rally.

The bearish PA we've had with London so far looks stronger than usual, and I think we're seeing sterling weakness; yesterday's BS rise was on very low volume, unmerited, and may have been a chance for big boys to short it, which if so, means we're travelling down with conviction. Note volume still looks lower today, with apparently insufficient stopping volume coming to the table.

Although I was expecting UJ to gun for 95.4, a current top seems to have formed, and I think we'll be seeing if 94.4 support will hold; my expectation is bearishness will ensue into the NY open and day - it's only a matter of time until the BP oil spill gets featured as the cause, along with others. (US futures are tumbling down too) Targeting 143 as TP1 for 1/4 of my 144.85 shorts, then hopefully 142.2 - if NY bearishness is confirmed, I'm pulling TP1 and holding further; if the current H4 bar looks as ominuous as the one we just built, along with a close below the DPP, then we should see further downside, IMHO. Note US market indexes toppiness, VIX concerns, along with other negativity could be a catalyst for a big market move; I can also see (Malcolm mentioned too) a EURUSD short squeeze of a few hundred pips, which would align nicely with US bearishness. Now, off to get some shuteye.
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  • #223,167
  • May 4, 2010 4:46am May 4, 2010 4:46am
Moving back toward the pivot again.....wonder which way she'll go this time.
  • #223,168
  • May 4, 2010 6:03am May 4, 2010 6:03am
I know we've got to wait another hour to confirm, but I do believe we got ourselves an honest to goodness double bottom on the hr chart.
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  • #223,169
  • May 4, 2010 6:07am May 4, 2010 6:07am
And I don't know what to make of this, on the 30min.
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  • #223,170
  • May 4, 2010 6:10am May 4, 2010 6:10am
Quoting SannaCBranno
I know we've got to wait another hour to confirm, but I do believe we got ourselves an honest to goodness double bottom on the hr chart.

as my posted earlier,the 30 min,, i do see now a slow steady pullback to 144.60,and then a break lower to 142.35 later in US/asian session ...or str8 to 142.35 ..lets see ,,but i def see 142.35 ,
  • #223,171
  • May 4, 2010 6:26am May 4, 2010 6:26am
Yep, I remember you saying that. Tested it out and it looked correct.


Quoting fullhouse
as my posted earlier,the 30 min,, i do see now a slow steady pullback to 144.60,and then a break lower to 142.35 later in US/asian session ...or str8 to 142.35 ..lets see ,,but i def see 142.35 ,
  • #223,172
  • May 4, 2010 6:54am May 4, 2010 6:54am
Hi all, I've been quiet for the last week or so but here is what I'm seeing...

We're currently attempting a break of the uptrend line I have drawn here in the smaller triangle. The larger trendlines you see are drawn on a daily basis and will be ignored for now. A solid close below this will indicate the bears are in control and I would expect a break and retest of this trendline giving another opportunity to load shorts. After testing old support as resistance I would expect a larger move down to test the daily trendline around the 140.00 zone.

Moving our attention to the daily you can see that MACD and Stochastics have plenty of room for a push lower. I would expect one of two scenarios once we touch 140.00 (or thereabouts)... either we retrace and fuel up for another push lower which would bring initially 135.00 and perhaps even lower to the bottom of the larger downtrend channel (130 or so) OR we bounce completely and GBP/JPY decides we've put a true bottom in and we go for the most recent highs. As for me, I'd favor the former, but I'd be jumping out at 140.00 to asses the new PA from there.

Things are looking good for this to play out right now and hopefully we get some assistance from the US session. Futures are down 50 points as I type and hopefully some follow through for the rest of the day will get us well into the low 142s.

Good trading to all.
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  • #223,173
  • May 4, 2010 8:59am May 4, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Beljevina
Although I was expecting UJ to gun for 95.4, a current top seems to have formed, and I think we'll be seeing if 94.4 support will hold; my expectation is bearishness will ensue into the NY open and day - it's only a matter of time until the BP oil spill gets featured as the cause, along with others. (US futures are tumbling down too) Targeting 143 as TP1 for 1/4 of my 144.85 shorts, then...
Things are progressing nicely downwards. Added the lower TL/wedge break (was missing from last chart), signaling we've broken that containment. Wall Street is falling over itself on negative concern for all the issues out there and things look bearish for the day. Check the decomposure in EURUSD - is reaching March 2009 levels. Am still holding all GY shorts (and some EU)

With GY am expecting it to reach 142.2, with a possible run on 141.7 today; seems like volume buying is occurring, so be prepared for sharp rebounds, if you're short term trading.
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  • #223,174
  • May 4, 2010 9:11am May 4, 2010 9:11am
yes, 143.25 is strong support and if broken should turn into strong resistance. keep an eye on what's happening here. we have a break but it is not convincing at the moment.
resistance is sitting @ yesterday's close area - 144.09 - and daily vwap - 143.90, in case we see a bounce from here.

*later edit - if we get a daily close below 143.25, it means that immediate (but NOT CURRENT) bias turned bearish and we should see a dip, theoretically to 135.6 area... even there, uptrend would still in place although seriously shaken up... however, might not get there but we'll know more as we head down.

Quoting fullhouse
scrat,,are you here? ..if we get a daily close below 143.25 ,, then your bias is bearish..

ok .. so then you strategy is to sell on 143.25 as ress ? am i right ..
dont you see the price go again above 143.25 to 144.60 somewhere if we get a daily close below 143.25 ... i know anything is possible, JAPAN can intervene in a minute and we pop up to 150,but technical speaking what do you see if we close below .i do see a triangle and dont know if we will travel that far up again to 144.60 ,if we get a daily close below 143.25 .. and we will face in...
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,175
  • May 4, 2010 9:14am May 4, 2010 9:14am
Quoting Scrat
yes, 143.25 is strong support and if broken should turn into strong resistance. keep an eye on what's happening here. we have a break but it is not convincing at the moment.
resistance is sitting @ yesterday's close area - 144.09 - and daily vwap - 143.90, in case we see a bounce from here.

thnx it all depends where do we form the low ,,so yip.lets see
  • #223,176
  • May 4, 2010 9:20am May 4, 2010 9:20am
Correct me if I'm wrong but isn't Asia back from Holiday tonight? The reason I mention this is because we have to consider that European markets dropped hard last night (about 2%) and US markets look like they will be dropping hard today as well. While Europe was tanking last night Asian markets were closed. How will Asia react to world markets tanking 1.5-2% across the board? Well, my guess is they'll be making up for lost time and we could see GBP/JPY have some rather nice selling during the Asian session.

Stay tuned...
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  • #223,177
  • Edited 9:34am May 4, 2010 9:24am | Edited 9:34am
Quoting quecee5
Have'nt posted in a while so here is my take on current PA if anyone is interested. . .

In my experience when we enter into a consolidation zone it's best to look to the higher TF's to try an make some sense out of what could be going on. . .

So if we look at the weekly chart. . .

One can clearly see that we are still in the bigger triangle bounded by the UTL top started at 153 and 150.75. . . So our current top for this wave up comes in at 146.15/10 which is also old rssistance if anyone can remember. Last week we touch...
Nice drop we are seeing off the high. . . 200 ema!

Down 200 pips not bad so far - 142.25 looks to be the 1st target let's see how we fair after London packs it in - see if NY buys it back to at least the DPP before a continuation or we may just see it drop from here. . . If we go back up 143.60/80 area might be another good selling point. . .
  • #223,178
  • May 4, 2010 9:30am May 4, 2010 9:30am
Quoting quecee5
Nice drop we are seeing off the high. . . 200 ema!

Down 200 pips not bad so far - 142.25 looks to be the 1st target let's see how we fair after London packs it in - see if NY buys it back to at least the DPP before a continuation or we may just see it drop from here. . .

Q..but the big Question is. to where are we going ,if we get a daily close below 141/142 in the coming days ? i dont wanna drop of the size on 200 pips ,if we are in for 500-1000 pips .. i need the bigger picture, i cant make out heads or tails on this pair ... frustrating
  • #223,179
  • Edited 9:56am May 4, 2010 9:42am | Edited 9:56am
Quoting fullhouse
Q..but the big Question is. to where are we going ,if we get a daily close below 141/142 in the coming days ? i dont wanna drop of the size on 200 pips ,if we are in for 500-1000 pips .. i need the bigger picture, i cant make out heads or tails on this pair ... frustrating
Bro looking at the "big picture" weekly. . . Our ultimate goal looks to be ar'd the 150 handle. . . Right now if you draw a fib from the swing high to low off 163-118 you can clearly see we are stuck in a range 61.8%-50.0% range at 146.16/10 - 141 persae. . .

If we get a weekly close below 141 then yes 136 is the target before we see a nice bounce and possibly dn to 134 area on a push. . .

A weekly close above 141 and guess what we are back to ranging some more. . .

Therefore; a break of 146.16/10 with a weekly close above sees 150-153 - 700 pips possibly and maybe higher and a close below the 141 handle sees 136/134 area. . .

For now play the range top off the 200 ema that hasn't been breached since Oct 2009 as mentioned in my post yesterday. Or play a break below 141 with a weekly close beneath there for 500 pips. . .

Or you can simple play the range based on weekly closes. . . Also, if you lok at the weekly chart it clearly states buy dips. . . The question is what dips? Well I would say at solid supp. . . ar'd 141 area unless we see momentum take over and right now the move lower is slow which tells me that there could be some buying down here. . .

Also watch to see if we put in a high low off last weeks low. . . That should give clues as well. . . We saw 141.46 so if 142.25 holds watch out for a possibly zip back up above 143. . . on a daily close. . .

Keep in mind if we are to go much lower we should see it in 3 waves. . . ABC. . .
So a possible scenario could look like this. . .

145.20 - 143 = A
143.00 - 144.90 = B
144.90 - 141.60 = C and possibly 140.90
  • #223,180
  • May 4, 2010 9:44am May 4, 2010 9:44am
Quoting grashid
haha..i will short 50X10 lot size on GY in few hr..and right now am taking EURJPY

p/s: just wanna c n learn his chart
ok guys..my resting time...close all my short and wait for breakout...

enough for me this month...c ya
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