The Dance

You did good nixie. Solid entry and good exit.

Hi Kostas, Nixie, Clay, 'everyone else'

I am a hardcore GbpJpy fan, and for some obscure reason I always tend to miss that type of trade that both you and Nixie caught on GU.

In the picture you see that PA drops below 50, 35, 10 and RN. However with GbpJpy, double bottoms (usually body not wicks) are powerful reversal signals. So there are 2 in a row after the drop below.
So I wait to see if it is testing and will go back above.

It then gives the classic Shooting Star pattern, then CONFIRMS it, AND the confirmation bar as well as the 3 bars before touch 50, and the confirm bar is below RN and has touched it.

An absolutely perfect entry sign except for 1 small detail.... I MISS it!

Why?, I have no clue, but it happens to me often, some doubt creeps in and I 'see' some idiot reason at the time to not trade.

So it drops like a stone, and rather than catch the falling knife, I wait. The entry point looks odd in this pic, but the bar went up to high then came back down and dropped below the pervious low. So with the 10 constraint strong, I entered knowing this should be a long down trade.

As the text on the pic says, I had to close for news, in case news reversed the whole thing, then re-entered. My SL (invisible through EA) is at be+1.
As I type I am up 23 pips.
If the PA breaks above RN I will close the trade.

<EDIT>
Just entered an add on trade to the last. It had the classic Shooting Star, and the confirm breaks below RN, while the constraint beneath 10 remains tight. A sweet trade is this one.
</EDIT>

<EDIT2>
I closed both trades. 74.3 Pips + 1.8 Pips.

The reason for closing is H1 is very near RN, but more important D1 has touched 35 and 50 and only slightly above RN.
Also my TickMA shows the reversal has started.
If it is a short term reversal (becomes a retrace) it will turn at RN.
My gut feel is that it is going to Range between the two H1 RN for a good few hours.

Not a bad trade to almost recover my last messed trades from yesterday.

355.01 to 437.50 = 23.24% gain from this trade.

</EDIT2>

BlueMental

Just to prove things to myself, I took a total of 10 trades yesterday, all on GBPUSD trading 0.2 lots on a mini-account. My results were:

-$2.00
0.00
-$2.40
+$0.20
----------------- 7am CST
+$0.60
+$0.40
+$5.60
+$2.20
----------------- 11am CST
-$1.00
-$2.80

Is it coincidence that my only profitable trades (for the most part) were the ones during the times I was SUPPOSED to be trading (overlap of London and NY markets)? Regardless, I was convinced.

Yes, I know I'm overtrading but like I said, I was experimenting and building my confidence in the system as well as my ability to apply it. I still have some doubts about my ability but I'm convinced the system is sound.

The best part of The Dance? It forces you to look at the candles and actually determine the price action instead of being distracted by some stupid indicator.

My biggest challenge right now is patience - especially when there's a "big move" going on. When I see a major trend, I get this overwhelming feeling that I'm "missing out" on massive profits. My first instinct is to simply jump in as quickly as possible. However, whenever I do that, prices never fail to retrench right after I jump in and I end up in the hole almost immediately. The Dance has taught me that waiting and looking for the proper entry points puts you further ahead in the long run.

It's the little things that make such a big difference...

Hiram

Blue (I think this spells BlueMental?),
1. I would advise you to stick with GY. One element of my success (so far ), is that I follow only one currency and this has allowed me to understand most of the little quirks that this currency has which helped me a lot in entering/exiting my Dance trades. Since you seem to understand the beast GY, do stick with it.
2. It is natural to feel weird entering the Dance trades since the price seems to go opposite from where you want it to go (but not opposite from the trade of the moment). Just enter the AAA trades and use the appropriate SL. After a few trades you will feel a lot more confident.

Kostas.

Greetings Clay.

I find I have some time on my hand (sic) so I will be able to work on the Stop Loss code.

Please be so kind as to post 2 trades both short and long that show the entry points as well as mark each successive Stop Loss placement as well as the initial SL placed on opening.

I do believe I am clear in how the Stepping Stop Loss system you define works, but a picture paints a thousand words.

The code I write for this is going to be script based, but not quite the 'normal' way scripts are run. You will only need to run the script once, and on your chart you will be able to set the following:-
1. StopLoss on and off with a toggle switch.
2. The initial value of new trade's Stop Loss in Pips.
3. A toggle switch that can either control the Stop Loss locally, that sends the CloseOrder on hitting the trigger or sending the Stop Loss the usual way.
4. A toggle Switch that indicator lines of SL placement can be on or off.
5. A toggle Switch that will Alert if a SL point is being aproached by pips set in start up properties.
6. A remove toggle switch that will delete all the SL objects and close the Script.

There might be a need for an option to allow a manual trigger to set the SL to BE+1 since it might not be simple enough to calculate for auto setting.
The last thing we want is to be hit by stoploss by a bad algorithm.
(Try in your pic's to define a rule for when to set BE+1 in the trades you use. We can explore and experiment with that as we progress.)
If we do manage to get a workable auto version of setting BE+1, then it would also have an on off toggle switch.

I have been contemplating the use of chart space, and the 'switches' for both this and the engine are going to be small. Possibly 2 or 3 characters in size. There will not be a drop zone in The Dance Engine and several switches will have multiple uses depending on which way they are dragged and how far.

It might be an option to set a toggle that the SL can be triggered by touch or by (if open past SL placement)

It might be useful to allow certain open trades to have different stoploss rules. For example, if a short is opened using the 2 orders method, the initial SL for both will be the same, so too will the BE+1. Yet if you close one of the positions at a certain point to lock in the profit, a slightly more free reign might be wanted for the remaining position. Perhaps you might wish to set it's stop loss to a few pips above the last high or to the extreme of the highest bewtween 2 or 3 bars back instead of the previous bar. Or even to overide one position only to stay at last SL setting (BE+1 for example).
For this to be possible, each open position needs a textual placing on the chart. It can be done in a separate window or in the zone to the right of the Chart Shift position.

I enjoy having all the relevant data for a position. In this case I would want to be able to see instantly how many pips my positions are away from their respective SL's without having to wonder and ponder what the spread is. I also prefer (if they have alternative options available) to know if touch will trigger the SL, open beyond or if it is static and set only to BE+1. This visual representation can be done in very small spaces. It is a simple thing to create a font with small icons depicting the various settings.

OK, That is the basics covered, but I can't think of everything, and things will change as they progress but it is enough to get us started.

This SL script will only affect open positions in the currency pair the chart it is in is set to. Changing a charts Symbol or Timeframe automatically shuts down the Scripts, but a 'are you sure' popup appears when you do.

I think it is best for this script (and The Dance Engine) to have it's own home chart.
But it will still be designed to be usable on a normal chart anyway.

BlueMental.

OK,, I am officially excited now. I have been looking for this piece of the puzzle for a very, very long time now.

The attached image has comments on it. If you need more PLEASE P.M. Me and I will set up a private Google Chat and invite you so we can perhaps "chat live" on a real chart about this so it's crystal clear.

I believe this is the missing "link" or "piece" that will help newbies "learn" to be consistent and to have markedly improved trading! The EXITS, once you have reasonably mastered good entries, are where ALL the money is made in trading.

You can have wonderful entries,,, but flawed exits will STILL hamper both your account growth as well as possibly destroy your confidence and maybe even still kill your account.

The Dance is awesome and helping make the entries "visible" and "clear" but the exits are still Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too discretionary for newbies to handle.
Hope this helps you understand better Blue, if not PLEASE, PLEASE, please, pretty please P.M. me and let's chat to make this perfect. It will also help you in your efforts on the trading management engine.

God bless and thank you in advance so very, very much.
Clay

Hi Clay,

The exits are clear to me and are now even more clear. This picture explains more to Newbies than one realises.

One thing that one should keep in mibd about this SL/exit setup we are working on here is that it is best for the users to learn what it does, and do what it does themselves. If they only ever use it on auto, they will never learn how to exit a trade.

It is nice to have the convenient one click makes me a millionaire machine, but we all know that machine only exists in the never neverland world where Politicians are honest and conspiracy theorists can be convinced that sunrise isn't just a part of the whole agenda.

Thank you for the picture.
BlueMental.

<EDIT>
Ok, I have had a cursoryglance at the graph and text, and all is clear.
With regards to the long bars, the how is simple (don't stress about those details) the how many should not be too difficult to establish.

We go into the backtest mode and observe the patterns of the bar forming. It can also be clarified by using successively smaller timeframe charts.

In my experience, the fib numbers are usually prevalent (whether that be due to Fib power or Great Belief in Fib Power by the masses is not relevant because they are power point nevertheless).

I find in particular 3 fib numbers that are most often used. I will soon post a pic regarding this and the explanation of how it all hangs together for the 'how many' pips bit.

As far as the SL for shorts needing the spread added because of the way Mt4 works, I know, the weird inconsistancies of Mt4 make it's coding quite odd.
One can't use the rectangle feature with an x and y dimension, just as the Label object can't be set to a time place. That is easily overcome in the math that calculates the SL.

</EDIT>

G'day All
As far as I know(somebody correct me if I'm wrong) the candle price displayed is always the BID price. You buy(go long) the ASK and sell(go short)
the BID The ASK price has the spread incorporated (ie bid plus spread) This is why when your stop is hit if you are short you are buying the ask so your stop is hit when the displayed price (BID) is still the spread amount away from the stop---the ask took out the stop.
When you are long the stop is a sell and will get taken out by the bid--the displayed price. So if you are long you can put your stop exactly where you think the price wont go---if you are short you have to add the spread to where you think the price wont go.
Wow this turned out to be a mouthful---hope it makes sense.
Cheers

lol.....

My life's acheivements have changed:

1. I want a baby - just recently acheived.
2. I want to be a successful trader..... work in progress.
and new in at no.3 I want to be a script programer..... BM - this stuff looks hot.

Like you have pointed out, you gota learn this stuff for yourself and I wouldn't envisage using it forever, however, there is nothing like watching something that works to teach yourself (just like EclayF )

Sadly I have been away from the machine for a few days over out bank holiday, should get back down to it all this evening!

I think I have withdrawal symptoms!

Regards

Lee

Good hunting to all!

Hi Clay, I've got a question, it's on the screenshot. Waiting for your comments.

Hey,

How would you view the current PA and trade?

My questions are on the pic.

Regards

Lee

*EDIT 1*

Just wanted to post an update of what the price is currently doing. Things are becoming clearer, obviously, but I am still unsure as to what trade I should have taken at the point of posting my original pic. Even if the answer was to stay out.

The last thing I want to start doing is posting missed trades, as I think, and no offence meant to anyone here at all, we will all be here all day!

Anyhows, the reasoning behind posting this trade was because I was watching it form and was thinking that this is a great 'constrainment' trade.

However, the reason I didn't take it was because I thought it was a little late in the day for it. As you can see it's the GU and here in the UK it's around 19.30 (7.30pm).

I understand the method of trading pairs where one currency is active, but I thought that this was a little later.

As I am typing this it halted perfectly on the RN.

So, should I be trading strong signals regardless of time providing one currency pair is still active?

Regards

Lee

Hi Clay and fellow Dancers

Constrainment trade taken moments ago, as im posting this i could of made well over +15pips. but late in the day and it was a quick 15pips. nothing wrong with taking quick pips

Cheers
Dane

Oh snap Leemonk didn't see your post just before mine, appologies

Hi Leemonk,

I've also took that trade eventhough its prety late in here. but still US session is on. The next reason is that area act as supports in previously, So it will behave as resistance for this entry. Felt prety confident to pull the trigger. Managed to get some nice pips.

Regards

Suranga

Hi Lee.

I'm not disagreeing with Clay when he says only trade during shared market times, but I shall put it this way...

When you are walking down the beach and you sea a sparkle in the water, and you dive in and find a diamond the size of the Everest, do you leave it there since you only do heavy labour carrying weights from 9 to 5?

When ALL your MA's specially the 50 are sloping downwards, and the 10 is the only one even vaguely thinking of being horizontal (not up either) and you get that particular curve of high's gently curving downwards on those 5 or 6 bars in a perfect arc. AND you get a touch on several SR, I would say without a doubt, leave the diamond! Only heavy labour during working hours!!

BMI.

Not too bad a day for me.

Something really odd occurred to me about 25 minutes ago. I recal reading in the manual where Clay mentioned he doesn't use the 500 anymore. And I put my indicator on top of The Dance indicator, and my trading setup (except for the three big EMA's is basically identical to The Dance.

The difference was that I was trading with the same set but from a different perspective. Since reading Clays Manual, I find that it is becoming DIFFICULT to not be profitable.

The thing that I never in my life ever thought abought let alone used that was brought to my attention by Clay is the power in Round Numbers! The whole puzzle finally clicked together why quite often my trades would go sour for absolutely no reason I could fathom. The resistance they hit was the RN's.

Here are comparative pics of the two methods. The Dance and The Monster.

Also with a pic of my one accounts trades. The trade in the top right pic was my only trade in that account, and it hit 92 pips.

The sum of pips in the pic is 78 pips with only 1 losing trade of -1 pip.

BMI.

Lee, Clay may have a different opinion but I'd like to share mine and give you some reasoning for it.

First, just trade the times that Clay gave you and go play with the family or otherwise relax during the "off times." Why?

1. Trading takes a fair bit out of you and it is addictive so people tend to stay at the screen too long. Too long translates to poorer overall performance. We need a life as well as trading.

2. Clay's method, like most sensible ways of taking money from the markets, works by stacking up edges. Each edge gives your trade a slightly better chance of working out or of taking more money (better risk reward or better avg win / avg loss). This is a "with the trend method" so:
a) trading only when there is likely to be a short timeframe trend adds to your chance of success
b) trading with those mas adds an edge
c) entering when there has been a "big enough" pullback adds to the edge
d) trading with the price action adds an edge
e) good profit taking/stop trailing add an edge.

So, its better to trade when the probabilities (edge) favor you and use the off times for recuperation and play. Enjoy and succeed.

Best wishes to you.

As Clay says he wants people to make The Dance their own, and I had developed a system quite a long time ago, based on MacD. I then forgot all about it. I was amazed at the weird manner than each MacD generates MA's that work together with the MacD to form a cohesive monster machine.

My problem was at the time, that I had no idea how to USE the monster. I was using it in the 'normal' way people use MacD, waiting for crossovers on the zero line.

Then one fine day I happened to log in to FF and I took a stroll over to the systems forum expecting the usual... Complex systems that confuse NASA engineers with 5 thousand six hundred and eighty two indicators that if rule 15c combine with.... (you get the picture.)

And what I found instead was The Dance. No complexity, sweet and simple, with a seriously solid underlying foundational philosophy.

Bye using Clays methods, and also buy finally realising (through The Dance) the power of round numbers, my previous system jumped out of the closet she was hiding in and snarled at me.

She is almost EXACTLY the same as the dance with one large difference. Because she is a twofold (A BIG mama with her baby in her hands), she is (by using The Dance methods) an incredible long term trade generator.


As far as the GbpJpy is concerned, I love her for two reasons, she is a SERIOUSLY strong Grandad! The amount of pips one gets from her is unreal. People cry because of 'high' spread. But the returns are far more than the spread IF you use The Dance method for minimal risk entry!

The second thing I love about her is that she has another reversal indicator than she throws your way ALL the time!

Almost every time you see a double bottom or double top on GY, you get at the very least 15 pips from it. If you only use the double's (there are plenty of them) when PA bounces off a confluence of ma's and rn SR's, you can easily get 200+ pips in one 6 to 8 hour trade.

The double Tops and bottoms are almost always body, not wicks. In other words the wicks are off at different levels, but the close of the last bar and the open of the new are spot on same and going in opposite directions.

BMI.

I don't remember where I read it was on the ask price, but I'm not a programmer and Blue is, so I'll leave it to him to figure out this part. All I can tell you for sure is that on shorts we have to allow for the spread and a pip or two and on longs, just a pip or two.

But thank you for the input.

Clay

Hi Alex, looks like hte "touch" on both charts then backed off around 15 pips or so. Hard to tell but that's what it looks like to me. So if we are using two positions and taking one out at +15 (something I'm working on for trademanagement at the moment) and move to BE for the second one, we should have a +15 pips trade and one BE trade here, eventhough it did then go against the entry.

This is why I am working on trade management, not money management. MM is handled pretty well in the scripts already, but knowing when to move to BE and when to exit so we avoid losses as well as capturing a few pips early on is the next "focus" for me on improving The Dance.

Not sure if that answers your questions, but this is exactly what I am working on at the moment to improve things.

Clay