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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,141
  • May 3, 2010 4:34pm May 3, 2010 4:34pm
Quoting fullhouse
LOOK AT THE usd/jpy .. we might "might" double topped it ,on 4hour/daily&weekly and then we can see momentum 2morrow.. or asian session ..

GL
Well, I see 3 levels of support in UJ @ 94 and 93.60 and 93/92.90 area. . . other than that I see a trip to above 95/95.50 myself possibly higher so not sure what you are seeing ATM?. . .

I think if ("BIG IF") we get a move lower in GJ it will come thru GU back to 1.51 area with possible dip to 1.5080 area. . .
  • #223,142
  • May 3, 2010 4:42pm May 3, 2010 4:42pm
i can also see another week or 2 inside the messy ranging triangle .. if it is one,,then we can start selling all 78.6 fibs or add on on every 78.6..but none is sure we will break out south ..but according to prev 2 triangles,we did breakout south outside the triangle...
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  • #223,143
  • May 3, 2010 7:27pm May 3, 2010 7:27pm
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

Forecast 57.5

A deviation of 4 should move the market 30 to 50 pips
A deviation of 3 should move the market 20 to 30 pips

A 100% retracement is common. However there is no pattern in the after spikes.

Retail positioning is flat.

Article Links: here
Manufacturing gauge expands rapidly in April (sfgate.com)
UK manufacturing confidence at 15-year high (newstatesman.com)
Survey: China Manufacturing Accelerated in April (abcnews.go.com)
  • #223,144
  • May 3, 2010 7:56pm May 3, 2010 7:56pm
not sure
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  • #223,145
  • May 3, 2010 8:39pm May 3, 2010 8:39pm
Taking 2/3 of longs picked up about 20hrs ago off the table here @ 144.85. We've hit the upper (red) TL, and given the time we've gotten here, most of the Asia PA is done. Hopefully London will reverse, but not without trying to fake out going a bit higher I suspect, perhaps shooting for a double-top 145.205 high, and maybe even going for the (yellow) TL from the Jan 14 149 high. Will close the rest of my longs if it tests to one of those points, and look to go short with a ~25pip SL; I first pick up a smaller lot size, then one the top is confirmed, short more.
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  • #223,146
  • May 3, 2010 8:47pm May 3, 2010 8:47pm
seems that even though double top is in play on 4H and Daily chart...

the Weekly top of 98 is very much threatening..

be careful bears...
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  • #223,147
  • May 3, 2010 9:28pm May 3, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting Beljevina
Taking 2/3 of longs picked up about 20hrs ago off the table here @ 144.85. We've hit the upper (red) TL, and given the time we've gotten here, most of the Asia PA is done. Hopefully London will reverse, but not without trying to fake out going a bit higher I suspect, perhaps shooting for a double-top 145.205 high, and maybe even going for the (yellow) TL from the Jan 14 149 high. Will close the rest of my longs if it tests to one of those points, and look to go short with a ~25pip SL; I first pick up a smaller lot size, then one the top is confirmed,...
I closed most of my longs as well. I agree with Beljevina that probably not much will happen till London. This forum discussion is heavily focused on technicals. And I truly appreciate the diligent technical insight and charts that the senior members are sharing with us. However, lately this pair has been frustrating many and occasionally called "crazy" since it’s driven to the large extent by news (mostly unscheduled), i.e., polls, PIIGS, political maneuvering in EU, etc. Can members please post their insight on these topics as well? Thank you in advance for your understanding and help!
  • #223,148
  • May 4, 2010 12:13am May 4, 2010 12:13am
hope retracement at 4h is finish.wait to confirm before going short.maybe until us session.
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -16.4%
  • #223,149
  • May 4, 2010 12:40am May 4, 2010 12:40am
why everybody are so quite?anybody there?
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -16.4%
  • #223,150
  • May 4, 2010 12:56am May 4, 2010 12:56am
We can see that at last 144.45 resistance has been broken by the one hour and the 4 hour, but I will like you to stay away to see dip form for you to ride up. Immediately the market closed yesterday, I saw that the momentum indicator on the daily was pointing down, so there would be a strong retracement to at least 143.79 wait for it to get there for you to enter, if it does not stay away.

You may need to stay away to see how the pending home sales will affect this pair today by 10 am ET. But I am sure that 150 level is around the corner; lets pray that the daily close is above 144.45 or the retracement to 143.79 happens today. Whichever

Anyone saying something? Scrat are you there?
  • #223,151
  • May 4, 2010 1:15am May 4, 2010 1:15am
i think gy officially started it's retracement down to 143.40ish, staying in the triangle.
  • #223,152
  • May 4, 2010 1:20am May 4, 2010 1:20am
If the intra day retracement don't close below 143.79 then we are not entering a no-trading zone. For now stay away from the market if possible till the US home sales. Or else scalp the market.
  • #223,153
  • May 4, 2010 1:54am May 4, 2010 1:54am
mhm... what's up... ?
Quoting uncletrumpet
Anyone saying something? Scrat are you there?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,154
  • May 4, 2010 2:02am May 4, 2010 2:02am
Trying to get back to the pivot, before the BIG news?
  • #223,155
  • May 4, 2010 2:17am May 4, 2010 2:17am
Quoting uncletrumpet
If the intra day retracement don't close below 143.79 then we are not entering a no-trading zone. For now stay away from the market if possible till the US home sales. Or else scalp the market.
i agree with u.we need to break 143.66 for bearish.
Gold Expedition Return This Year: -16.4%
  • #223,156
  • May 4, 2010 2:22am May 4, 2010 2:22am
im expecting a drop all the way down to 78.6 fib inside the triangle @ 142.35 ,,so lets see how it played out ...

every single currency/pair is not tradeable ,and the best is to stay away and do nothing if possible ...

----FRUSTRATED----
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  • #223,157
  • May 4, 2010 2:27am May 4, 2010 2:27am
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1272957866

when the gap is getting closer, I have no idea what i should do...
it would be better if i stop gambling and watch drama series
row row row your boat
  • #223,158
  • May 4, 2010 2:39am May 4, 2010 2:39am
im short now till 142.35,then i will reverse to long to the next 78.6 +- @ 144.36,,then go back to shorts for the final leg down and add more on breakout ,,to where ever 139/38/136 ,,dont know ..

so for now im playing the legs up and down inside the triangle and expect a breakout south ,,but it can go quick to 139/138 and go bullsih again,,so im very cautious for the breakout south ...
  • #223,159
  • May 4, 2010 2:40am May 4, 2010 2:40am
Got a buy and sell @ the pivot. Whipsaw me will ya!!!
  • #223,160
  • May 4, 2010 2:41am May 4, 2010 2:41am
For now get ready to buy the dip because we are still in a bullish market in the short term outlook, but for now we are in a bearish market in the immediate outlook. Wait till when the support is formed and you see a confirmation that the bears are tired. Lets hope market does not go beyond 143.79, that is where I am buying my dip, however, I have gotten 62 pips for today I need to stay away. I have learnt not to be greedy.

Quoting uncletrumpet
We can see that at last 144.45 resistance has been broken by the one hour and the 4 hour, but I will like you to stay away to see dip form for you to ride up. Immediately the market closed yesterday, I saw that the momentum indicator on the daily was pointing down, so there would be a strong retracement to at least 143.79 wait for it to get there for you to enter, if it does not stay away.

You may need to stay away to see how the pending home sales will affect this pair today by 10 am ET. But I am sure that 150 level is around the corner; lets...
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