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Why 61.8%?

  • #241
  • May 3, 2010 11:34am May 3, 2010 11:34am
Quoting Ted1983
For the benefit of GEfx here is the TED extension I posted, shown on a M15 chart. Check it for yourselves if you want.
No Ted, that is not the point. You said the first chart posted was the big prediction, and the second proved your method. Now you just re-posted the second chart, and continue to tell the lie. (I am done trading for the day so I can keep this up for a while). Why not just tell us that you were just kidding around and trying to throw a cheap punch. But, making a point with nothing to back it up is a clear sign that you have been BS'ing us for this whole time, right?
Again, how did you make out on the trade using your predictive approach?
  • #242
  • Edited 11:45am May 3, 2010 11:34am | Edited 11:45am
Ted

Just so I am clear, because I am not sure the point you are trying to make with your euro chart.

The retracement on the eurusd chart you posted missed the 38.2 fib by one pip on my data feed.

So after a 128 pip move this means that it missed the 38.2 fib by 0.78%,

Are you saying that fibs do not work based on them missing a retracement by 0.78%?

To be honest, if you want to pick an example of fibs not working then you could do better than picking a chart where the price misses the typical retracement point for this type of wave by 0.78%.

Personally I would take 99.22% accuracy of my turning points and profit levels now and every day going forward.

As to the extension, well again the price overshot my second target by 1.5 pips. Which is an overshoot of 0.65%. Again I would take that accuracy any day.

There are plenty of price moves out there on charts which miss the retracements and extensions for thier associated waves by miles, so if you want to demonstrate to people who are undecided about the whether fibs work or not then there are better examples of fib's not working than showing a chart that has fibs working within an accuracy of over 99%.

Regards
  • #243
  • May 3, 2010 11:36am May 3, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Ted1983
OK fair criticism. I misunderstood what you were saying.

However if you look at the projection it's the same ratio
for the retracement as the extension.

I'm not going to alter the first chart as I think it shows clearly what I was seeing at the time.
As you can see I posted it close up so the extension point is out of view. That was a mistake on my part.
That seems to be a pretty big leap of faith you are asking of us. I think you would be better off just admitting you are BS'ing us. Come on, just say it. I am still wondering how many pips you made on the trade.
  • #244
  • May 3, 2010 11:37am May 3, 2010 11:37am
Quoting Nabi
Ted

Just so I am clear, because I am not sure the point you are trying to make with your euro chart.

The retracement on the eurusd chart you posted missed the 38.2 fib by one pip on my data feed.

So after a 128 pip move this means that it missed the 38.2 fib by 0.78%,

Are you saying that fibs do not work based on them missing a retracement by 0.78%?

To be honest, if you want to pick an example of fibs not working then you could do better than picking a chart where the price misses the typical retracement point for this type of wave by...
No offense, but that's a typical logical fallacy.
Price didn't miss the fib, it hit the TED zone.
  • #245
  • May 3, 2010 11:39am May 3, 2010 11:39am
Quoting Nabi

Personally I would take 99.22% accuracy of my turning points and profit levels now and every day going forward.

Regards
All the way to the bank, my friend. The point is, every trader should find a set of tools that help them trade the forex, and then stick with them, even when someone with no trading experience tries to tell you that your tools are wrong or meaningless. I would like everyone here to make money and stop arguing about what does not work, and spend more time talking about what does work. Good trading to you!
  • #246
  • May 3, 2010 11:39am May 3, 2010 11:39am
Quoting GEfx
That seems to be a pretty big leap of faith you are asking of us. I think you would be better off just admitting you are BS'ing us. Come on, just say it. I am still wondering how many pips you made on the trade.
Look I posted what I posted (admitedly the first chart isn't the best view)
Go and check the chart for yourself. It worked.

Naturally all our data feeds will be slightly different so you might miss the TED retracement by a pip or two, but that's just market noise.
  • #247
  • May 3, 2010 11:41am May 3, 2010 11:41am
Quoting Ted1983
Look I posted what I posted (admitedly the first chart isn't the best view)
Go and check the chart for yourself. It worked.

Naturally all our data feeds will be slightly different so you might miss the TED retracement by a pip or two, but that's just market noise.
Then perhaps you should retract your statement that you were able to predict the exact price level, since it is clear that you have not done so in a predictive manner. Perhaps you would like to tell us how many pips you made on that trade?
  • #248
  • Edited 11:57am May 3, 2010 11:46am | Edited 11:57am
Look mate, go and look at your charts.
(I use Broco demo for charting as it has a wide range of instruments).

I thought it was taken as read that first extension is the same ratio as the retracement. Apologies if that wasnt clear.

edit: If you look at my first chart, youll see the retracement tool says "4HR range high".
Thats my usual TF. I was just dropping down to lower TFs to see what was going on.
I saw a setup on the hourly so I posted the chart.

edit 2: As we know the market exhibits fractal behaviour so it's no surprise you can find setups on any TF.
  • #249
  • May 3, 2010 11:51am May 3, 2010 11:51am
Quoting Ted1983
Look mate, go and look at your charts.
(I use Broco demo for charting as it has a wide range of instruments).

I thought it was taken as read that first extension is the same ratio as the retracement. Apologies if that wasnt clear.
Come on Ted, is that the best you can do? Look, I offered several examples of my trading style here, not to make myself look like the big king trader but to offer some newer traders some idea about how to use one of the tools in their toolkit. You have offered nothing but lies or a joke, not sure to this minute which it is. I actually trade the stuff I posted, but you offer nothing. I ask again, how many pips did you make on that trade today?
  • #250
  • May 3, 2010 11:56am May 3, 2010 11:56am
So I'm a liar becuase you say so, when all you've offered is charts with about 20 or more projections on each.

The first expansion is exactly the same ratio as the retracement.
As I've said I (mistakenly) thought this would be assumed.

Download Brocos demo and check for yourself.

I haven't edited any of the charts in hindsight so whats the beef?
  • #251
  • May 3, 2010 12:03pm May 3, 2010 12:03pm
Quoting Ted1983
So I'm a liar becuase you say so, when all you've offered is charts with about 20 or more projections on each.

The first expansion is exactly the same ratio as the retracement.
As I've said I (mistakenly) thought this would be assumed.

Download Brocos demo and check for yourself.

I haven't edited any of the charts in hindsight so whats the beef?
Ted, if you will send me a PM, I'd be happy to explain all those fib lines on my charts. I did not boast anything on my posts nor did I assume anything, except that the readers are able to read a chart. By the way, you are not a liar because I say so, but because you lied. Ted, it's ok to say that you did not make the trade, but if you did, let us know how many pips you got.
  • #252
  • May 3, 2010 12:03pm May 3, 2010 12:03pm
So what style of trading do you subscribe to Ted?
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #253
  • May 3, 2010 12:08pm May 3, 2010 12:08pm
Stop calling me a liar, you have no justification.

I have explained myself to the full, and did not edit the charts I posted.

I don't need any explanation of your methods. I already understand them (better than you do, it would seem).

edit: If you must know I think the best way to manage a trade is take of half and then use the remainder as SL in the hope of catching a trend,
that is up to the individual I suppose.
  • #254
  • May 3, 2010 12:10pm May 3, 2010 12:10pm
Quoting Ted1983
Stop calling me a liar, you have no justification.

I have explained myself to the full, and did not edit the charts I posted.

I don't need any explanation of your methods. I already understand them (better than you do, it would seem).
I think your statements here will be better judged by the participants of this thread. Again, and for the last time, how many pips did you make on that trade, Ted?
  • #255
  • May 3, 2010 12:13pm May 3, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting GEfx
I think your statements here will be better judged by the participants of this thread. Again, and for the last time, how many pips did you make on that trade, Ted?

Read the edit in my previous post. I'm still in it.
This thread is not about individual trades.
Read through it, follow the links. You might learn something.
  • #256
  • May 3, 2010 12:30pm May 3, 2010 12:30pm
Quoting Ted1983
Read the edit in my previous post. I'm still in it.
This thread is not about individual trades.
Read through it, follow the links. You might learn something.
LOL -- the current retrace from the low of 1.3154 has hit the .50 fib and bounded off to return to the .386-- LOL. I am done toying with you, Ted. It took you a long time to come up with the "I'm still in it" line -- lol. This has been fun. I closed my trading station about an hour ago and chart are now off, as well. I hope everyone has a great trading day (even you, Ted!).

Edit: I have received several PM's with request for more info on the charts posted. I may post something on my journal later, so you can check there, OK? Again, this is just some info and I am not trying to be the big king trader here.
  • #257
  • May 3, 2010 12:30pm May 3, 2010 12:30pm
Ted,

I am still not getting your point of this demonstration on Euro chart

1. Your retracement and expansion is only 1.8% difference to the 38.2 fib so are proving nothing by using 37 as retracement and projection.

2. Well I hate to point it out but the way you are using the expansion is not the best way and is used really only for a secondary confirmation of levels. There are primary use of fib expansions is not this way.

So to me that you have demonstrated that the retracement was over 99% accurate to the most common fib retracement for this type of wave.

And secondly you have demonstrated to me with the use of your expansion fib levels that your previous experience with fib levels may have been coloured by using fibs not incorrectly but with methods less than optimum.

To me if you use a tool inefficiently then you should expect inefficient results.

But at the end of the day if fibs do not work for you then they do not work for you.

May everyone's trades be profitable.

Regards
  • #258
  • May 3, 2010 12:32pm May 3, 2010 12:32pm
Quoting GEfx
LOL -- the current retrace from the low of 1.3154 has hit the .50 fib and bounded off to return to the .386-- LOL. I am done toying with you, Ted. It took you a long time to come up with the "I'm still in it" line -- lol. This has been fun. I closed my trading station about an hour ago and chart are now off, as well. I hope everyone has a great trading day (even you, Ted!).

Edit: I have received several PM's with request for more info on the charts posted. I may post something on my journal later, so you can check there, OK?
Cut losses short, let winners run.

This guy is getting as bad as Sim
  • #259
  • May 3, 2010 12:43pm May 3, 2010 12:43pm
Quoting Nabi
Ted,

I am still not getting your point of this demonstration on Euro chart

1. Your retracement and expansion is only 1.8% difference to the 38.2 fib so are proving nothing by using 37 as retracement and projection.

2. Well I hate to point it out but the way you are using the expansion is not the best way and is used really only for a secondary confirmation of levels. There are primary use of fib expansions is not this way.

So to me that you have demonstrated that the retracement was over 99% accurate to the most common fib retracement...
The fact that it went 99% of the way anywhere is coincidental.
The chart shows narrowing consolidation then a breakout.
This can be seen very well on the M15 chart I posted. Prior to Sim and GEfxs tirade of unwarranted accusations and abuse.

In reality I have not demonstrated anything. Neither has GEfx.

To say I used the expansion sub optimally doesn't really make sesne.
If there is an optimal method then this would be statistically testable,
all tests show that no particular number has any more validity over the other.

As you said earlier in the thread you use a wave count (highs and lows)
to place fibs, this seems like a great way to keep in touch with the trend. (far better than Ma's for example)
I've got no problem with that.
  • #260
  • May 3, 2010 1:22pm May 3, 2010 1:22pm
M15 Ted????? no wonder you can't use fibs or draw them from the right spots.......they will work on a 15, but you had better have it drawn from a longer term chart with alot more data to be consistant.....I can't remember the last time I looked at a M15.........I like to enjoy my days, not sit in front of a comp praying for todays set up.........Just an FYI here...I believe anything under a 60 min charts is fundie driven and erratic at best.......get to 4hr and 1 day charts any you will see human nature, fibonacci equations, and technicals take over.............anyone wanting to berate me, enjoy yourself...I'll just sit back with a wry smile and enjoy the entertainment...I know what MY account looks like...........
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