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Why 61.8%?

  • #221
  • May 3, 2010 8:26am May 3, 2010 8:26am
Quoting Nabi
I would be interested in seeing a proper study on fib retracements and expansions by somebody that knew how to use them correctly.
Hi,

That's the problem as far as I can see.
No two fib nazis will agree as to where to put the retracement.
That little problem invalidates them as a useful tool from the get go.
  • #222
  • May 3, 2010 8:44am May 3, 2010 8:44am
Quoting Ted1983
No two fib nazis will agree as to where to put the retracement.
And worse still, they cant even do that with the benefit of hindsight yet alone in real time
  • #223
  • May 3, 2010 8:54am May 3, 2010 8:54am
Hi Ted,

I agree the proper placement of fibs can be and is for a lot of people a problem.

Personally for me the fibs work best when used in context of Elliot waves, and as I use Elliot waves to decide the direction / trend for me then I use the Elliot wave guidelines and rules to decide the placement of the fibs etc.

I completely understand that people think that elliot wave theory is rubbish, I am not going to try and persuade people otherwise, but for me it helps me understand the flow of the market place and gives a structure and guidelines on how to use my fibs the same way on a consistent basis rather than just hanging them off every single swing high and low.

As I trade with others who use the same style of trading we rarely disagree on fibs levels as we are using them within the same guidelines. But I am sure if I discussed fib levels with someone who was using them in a different method then I am sure that we would have different fib levels.

Again as others have stated it is getting to know and understand our tools and what they bring to the party within own methods and using them correctly within that context.

Regards
  • #224
  • May 3, 2010 8:57am May 3, 2010 8:57am
Quoting Nabi
I completely understand that people think that elliot wave theory is rubbish, I am not going to try and persuade people otherwise, but for me it helps me understand the flow of the market place and gives a structure and guidelines on how to use my fibs the same way on a consistent basis rather than just hanging them off every single swing high and low.
Thats perfectly reasonable.

It's the people who think the market is dictated by these things that need to be shot.
  • #225
  • May 3, 2010 9:02am May 3, 2010 9:02am
In other news the EUR just made a 37.008 (to 3 dp) retracement.
This shall henceforth be known as the Ted ratio.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Ted ratio.jpg Size: 55 KB
  • #226
  • May 3, 2010 9:02am May 3, 2010 9:02am
Quoting GEfx
Hi auxesis, these people have compiled a lot of academic evidence that fibs do not work, so I think it's time to rethink this issue, because this trade I was in this morning on the E/J (long at 124.38, stop now at 124.78) is not based on anything real, just magic and a result of random market actions:

Attachment

Please, do not believe any of this fib stuff, they just do not work!

lol, great stuff, I love it, kinda destroys all the theorists, statisticians, and naysayers arguments! The proof of the pudding......after all, we're in this to make money!

  • #227
  • May 3, 2010 9:03am May 3, 2010 9:03am
Quoting auxesis
It doesn't matter what Dr.PHD, Mr. Mathematician or your Aunt Nelly from East Burning Stump, Nowhere says or thinks.... all that matters is , do they work for you?

Regardless of what anyone thinks regarding the veracity of Fibs, there's people using them and making money doing so.
Hallelujah, someone who understands the purpose of the whole exercise!
  • #228
  • May 3, 2010 9:04am May 3, 2010 9:04am
Quoting pipmutt
lol, great stuff, I love it, kinda destroys all the theorists, statisticians, and naysayers arguments! The proof of the pudding......after all, we're in this to make money!

Wow. I actually thought you'd be a bit more discerning.

(There are 23 (ish) fib lines on that chart at a glance, strange that the price should hit them eh)
  • #229
  • May 3, 2010 9:10am May 3, 2010 9:10am
I think people should not confuse correlation* with causality. God of the Gaps.

* a questionable issue in the least

I'm done with this thread, it's going nowhere.

PEACE

  • #230
  • May 3, 2010 9:40am May 3, 2010 9:40am
This thread has 9200 views in 4 days! what a hot debate!!!

ok i just passed by and no intention to join the crossfire. u guys/gals carry on...
  • #231
  • May 3, 2010 9:42am May 3, 2010 9:42am
So since fibs dont work, it seems to invalidate alot of Tom Demarks work then also.
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #232
  • May 3, 2010 10:34am May 3, 2010 10:34am
For those of you who doubt me. Go back to this post where I posted my own special ratio.
This is a proprietary signal called the TED ratio (after me).
I'm only giving up this secret information for the benefit of my fellow traders.
It took me about 10,000 hours of screen time to arrive a this special number.

Here is the result.

(Notice that I post with foresight on my side unlike some in this thread.
So there you have it. Conclusive proof that the TED ratio moves the markets, not stupid fib' BS.)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ted ratio proof.jpg Size: 57 KB
  • #233
  • May 3, 2010 11:02am May 3, 2010 11:02am
Fibonnacci thought that he could turn lead into gold
+
90% Traders blow their account in first year
+
How many traders use Fib ratio's? My guess is many

= The reality of the markets but everyones reality is different.
  • #234
  • May 3, 2010 11:12am May 3, 2010 11:12am
Quoting Ted1983
For those of you who doubt me. Go back to this post where I posted my own special ratio.
This is a proprietary signal called the TED ratio (after me).
I'm only giving up this secret information for the benefit of my fellow traders.
It took me about 10,000 hours of screen time to arrive a this special number.

Here is the result.

(Notice that I post with foresight on my side unlike some in this thread.
So there you have it. Conclusive proof that the TED ratio moves...
Oops, you forgot to change the chart in your original post. The two are different and clearly show that you are not telling the truth. Please go back and adjust the chart on the original post. By the way, how many pips did you make on that trade?

Edit: Now that I have posted this, I am ashamed that I took the bait. My bad.
  • #235
  • May 3, 2010 11:15am May 3, 2010 11:15am
Stop making false accusations. I post evidence and you instantly go on the attack.
The only difference is the first chart is H1 and the second is on M30. I posted the first chart as I was scanning H1 (with foresight) The second chart is M30 for a closer view.
The market hit my projection to the pip as you can see.

edit: If you go to M15 you'll see I reached my projection with virtually no retracement.
I don't usually bother with charts that small though.

You just don't want to see the truth before you.
  • #236
  • May 3, 2010 11:18am May 3, 2010 11:18am
Quoting Ted1983
Stop making false accusations. The only difference is the first chart is H1 and the second is on M30. I posted the first chart as I was scanning H1 (with foresight) The second chart is M30 for a closer view.
The market hit my projaction to the pip as you can see.
Nice story. In fact, they are not the same and you are not telling the truth. Go ahead and make the change, then you can tell everyone that you are telling the truth. You see, if you can't post a truthful chart like some have done here, then why should anyone listen to you? Please let us know how you made out on the trade.
  • #237
  • May 3, 2010 11:24am May 3, 2010 11:24am
What do you mean "they are not the same"?

Both charts are EUR/USD from today.
The first was posted well in advance of the other.

LOOK AT THE TIMES THEY WERE POSTED (The first chart was posted over 1 1/2 hours earlier)

I show conclusive proof of my methods and you instantly call me a liar.

Shows what a low life you really are.

If you want something from me should ask nicely instead of attacking what you don't understand.
  • #238
  • May 3, 2010 11:29am May 3, 2010 11:29am
Quoting Ted1983
What do you mean "they are not the same"?

Both charts are EUR/USD from today.
The first was posted well in advance of the other.

LOOK AT THE TIMES THEY WERE POSTED

I show conclusive proof of my methods and you instantly call me a liar.

Shows what a low life you really are.

If you want something from me should ask nicely instead of attacking what you don't understand.
No Ted, you indicated in your second post (with your chart) that you had predicted to the pip where the market was going ("post with foresight"), offering as proof the first chart you posted. The two charts are not the same since the first does not include your target price line. You continue to lie about your results, so just go back and edit the first post and you will no longer be telling the big lie. Again, how did you make out on the trade?
  • #239
  • May 3, 2010 11:30am May 3, 2010 11:30am
For the benefit of GEfx here is the TED extension I posted, shown on a M15 chart. Check it for yourselves if you want.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ted ratio proof 2.jpg Size: 58 KB
  • #240
  • May 3, 2010 11:33am May 3, 2010 11:33am
Quoting GEfx
No Ted, you indicated in your second post (with your chart) that you had predicted to the pip where the market was going ("post with foresight"), offering as proof the first chart you posted. The two charts are not the same since the first does not include your target price line. You said continue to lie about your results, so just go back and edit the first post and you will no longer be telling the big lie. Again, how did you make out on the trade?

OK fair criticism. I misunderstood what you were saying.

However if you look at the projection it's the same ratio
for the retracement as the extension. (edit: I thought this was assumed)

I'm not going to alter the first chart as I think it shows clearly what I was seeing at the time.
As you can see I posted it close up so the extension point is out of view. That was a mistake on my part.
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