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Attachments: UK Election Countdown.....
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UK Election Countdown.....

  • #21
  • May 1, 2010 5:33pm May 1, 2010 5:33pm
One daily paper has Labour down to 23% of the vote share. (That's bad)

For all non UK folks remeber that the election itself isn't contested on proportional representation.<-- Which is how the bastards have stayed in this long.
  • #22
  • May 2, 2010 3:49am May 2, 2010 3:49am
Quoting Beljevina
Just wanted to put some more context around this, now that there's been some more public discussion in the media: while the rumour was probably purposeful & perhaps malicious (an urging to short so big boys could buy?), any downgrade is extremely unlikely until the election is resolved. Should a hung parliament in fact ensue, and if it takes weeks to form gov't/consensus, while the economy burns, then there's a real fear of the ratings agencies making further pronouncements against the UK.
History shows that hung parliaments actually do work in reducing debt, although they are a two-edged sword. Here is my weekly 'Moneyweek' post on the subject.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...91#post3687891

"The good news is that history shows that coalition governments in the UK have been associated with some of the biggest spending cuts of the past century. The bad news is that they've also gone hand-in-hand with some of our worst economic upheavals too."
  • #23
  • May 2, 2010 3:53am May 2, 2010 3:53am
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8656353.stm

Buwhahahahahaha! Good riddance to bad rubbish, unless there is a hung parliament..... noooooooooooooooooooooooo!

Personally I like this lot, but I can't vote, being a bloody foreigner
http://www.commonsenseparty.org.uk/
  • #24
  • May 2, 2010 3:26pm May 2, 2010 3:26pm
Nice links, ya bloody foreigner!
  • #25
  • May 2, 2010 4:01pm May 2, 2010 4:01pm
Did anyone see the Jeremy Paxman interview with Brown the other night. He squirmed like a worm underfoot.

He argued that since 1997 he was attempting to regulate global finance with the setting up of an international body. Yet that drive, didn't stop him from selling off Britains gold reserves and other assets at rock bottom prices as chancelor (Paxman was too soft).

Good bye Brown and his public purse pinching cronies. No doubt he'll be bringing on more of cheesy Blair in front of the camera's to woo the gullable public that fall for his plastic charm (e.g the recent hospital visit - doh, some people!).
  • #26
  • May 2, 2010 4:22pm May 2, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting Ted1983
Nice links, ya bloody foreigner!
  • #27
  • May 3, 2010 5:59pm May 3, 2010 5:59pm
I mentioned in the Aus thread that I was beginning to feel the momentum increasing for Cameron and lo and behold an hour or so later the latest poll from Reuters states that Cameron could be heading for an overall majority.

Traditionally, it is Labour voters who stay at home when they are either dissatisfied or demoralised, whereas traditional Conservative voters turn out in good numbers.

I suspect a lot of Labour supporters are gunna sit this one out. Sounds daft I know, but it's easy to take part in an instant poll. Not so easy getting on a bus to vote.

Hard not be be bullish for Sterling medium term, but let's see what Thursday brings....
  • #28
  • May 3, 2010 6:23pm May 3, 2010 6:23pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
I mentioned in the Aus thread that I was beginning to feel the momentum increasing for Cameron and lo and behold an hour or so later the latest poll from Reuters states that Cameron could be heading for an overall majority.

Traditionally, it is Labour voters who stay at home when they are either dissatisfied or demoralised, whereas traditional Conservative voters turn out in good numbers.

I suspect a lot of Labour supporters are gunna sit this one out. Sounds daft I know, but it's easy to take part in an instant poll. Not so easy getting on...
Polls are just that... a poll of a small section of the population. Do not read too much into polls as they can be skewed. Also the recent gaffe by Brown did not help his cause. I'm hoping and wishing we will see the last of this baffoon on Friday morning when he is crying into his cup of morning tea. I remember when Labour got into power in 1997 and their song was 'It can only get better'. What a beautiful spin over the last 13 or so years and look where we ended up! Would it have been different if someone else was in power during those years... who knows!?
  • #29
  • Edited 12:48pm May 4, 2010 12:38pm | Edited 12:48pm
The Irish/UK bookmaker has announced it will pay out early on all bets of a Cameron win.

Read absolutely nothing into this news, it's an interesting little sideshow that's all.

Paddy Power are infamous for pulling these kinds of stunts before the completion of an event. In 2003, they paid out early on Arsenal to win the UK football league, only for Man Utd to pip them to the post and there have been numerous other payouts over the years too.

I guess the free publicity is obviously worth more than the paid out bets.

More saliently, the other bookmakers are still predicting a hung parliament.
  • #30
  • May 5, 2010 8:27am May 5, 2010 8:27am
Quoting ukdaytrader
The Irish/UK bookmaker has announced it will pay out early on all bets of a Cameron win.

Read absolutely nothing into this news, it's an interesting little sideshow that's all.

Paddy Power are infamous for pulling these kinds of stunts before the completion of an event. In 2003, they paid out early on Arsenal to win the UK football league, only for Man Utd to pip them to the post and there have been numerous other payouts over the years too.

I guess the free publicity is obviously worth more than the paid out bets.

More saliently, the other...
Spot on!
  • #31
  • May 5, 2010 1:36pm May 5, 2010 1:36pm
If you live in the UK you can check whether your vote has any power. In the UK, the only voters with any real power to choose the government are those who live in marginal constituencies.

http://www.voterpower.org.uk/

I live in a ultra safe conservative area, so even if I could vote, I would have no power to change. Enjoy!
  • #32
  • May 6, 2010 4:11am May 6, 2010 4:11am
OK, the day is here and it will have escaped no one's attention that Sterling,(along with other currencies), has been getting killed this past 2 days.

Bookies still favour a hung parliament and they are rarely wrong which may partly explain the sell-off. Could also be big players geting ready to buy cheaply tomorrow.

I'll be doing the evening/night shift today (UK time), and wil update all the important counts and what they could mean.

It's gunna be interesting..... I'll be back here later.
  • #33
  • May 6, 2010 6:47am May 6, 2010 6:47am
Quoting bbakker
I live in a ultra safe conservative area, so even if I could vote, I would have no power to change. Enjoy!
Me too, South Cotswolds. Lots of farmers around so theyd be mad to vote for anyone else really.
  • #34
  • May 6, 2010 8:24am May 6, 2010 8:24am
Quoting Ted1983
Me too, South Cotswolds. Lots of farmers around so theyd be mad to vote for anyone else really.
Most farmers I know vote UKIP, which is kinda strange considering the vast subsidies UK farmers get from the EU.
  • #35
  • May 6, 2010 4:07pm May 6, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Most farmers I know vote UKIP, which is kinda strange considering the vast subsidies UK farmers get from the EU.

Geez, I read that and thought you were serious for about 3-5 seconds.
  • #36
  • May 6, 2010 4:17pm May 6, 2010 4:17pm
A few minutes old, and off the site I stumbled to, where you can watch live video/BBC: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/election2010/liveevent/
Attached Image
  • #37
  • May 6, 2010 5:13pm May 6, 2010 5:13pm
Will be a slow start to the vote counts, then swathes of results will flood in.

OK, hung parliament is the most likely it seems.

Now just need the proof.
  • #38
  • May 6, 2010 5:29pm May 6, 2010 5:29pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Will be a slow start to the vote counts, then swathes of results will flood in.

OK, hung parliament is the most likely it seems.

Now just need the proof.
I had heard somewhere in the plethora of media that I follow (think it was bloomie's) that a hung parliament can work, and has worked elsewhere, esp. when the catalyst is the type of fear that we're seeing today. That seems good, as opposed it being a catalyst for further sterling losses.

Any sense of the current vibe in the UK for that view? If the markets consider that possible, I guess sterling movement will be slower.
  • #39
  • May 6, 2010 6:50pm May 6, 2010 6:50pm
Dare it be said, but looks like Gordon and David are well hung!!
bull in a china shop
  • #40
  • May 6, 2010 7:14pm May 6, 2010 7:14pm
Some reasonable swings to the Conservatives and some not so reasonable. Nothing to hang your hat on yet.

Basildon is likely to be the first significant count to be declared.
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