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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #223,021
  • May 1, 2010 9:13am May 1, 2010 9:13am
Quoting StarChild
I fully agree a daily close below support area = a deep down. I have a yearly pivot at 89.50....that will be strong support?? I also like this pair...the COT on Cad has been at extremes..now is starting to change positions....Happy trading next week!!

YIP,,WE FOCUS NOW ON THAT LEVEL ,, AND IF WE BREAK IT ,that mean that the top is in place and we focus on 79-82 supp,,im also not a EW guru,,but i can count 1 to 5 ,and we now in wave 5 if im correct,,but i have no clue where the most 5's end ,,below 3 or above,,i dont know ,maybe someone can help who studied EW . and monthly candle closed as a doji,,or 20 pips away from it,,but you can say its a doji ,,so i think the top is in place and lower we go the form wave 5 in the coming weeks/months ,,
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  • #223,022
  • May 1, 2010 9:35am May 1, 2010 9:35am
This is a weekly cadjyp chart... With yearly pivots. This is how i see the wave count....

Quoting fullhouse
yip,,we focus now on that level ,, and if we break it ,that mean that the top is in place and we focus on 79-82 supp,,im also not a ew guru,,but i can count 1 to 5 ,and we now in wave 5 if im correct,,but i have no clue where the most 5's end ,,below 3 or above,,i dont know ,maybe someone can help who studied ew . And monthly candle closed as a doji,,or 20 pips away from it,,but you can say its a doji ,,so i think the top is in place and lower we go the form wave 5 in the coming weeks/months ,,
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  • #223,023
  • May 1, 2010 1:14pm May 1, 2010 1:14pm
my current view on g-j.

- long term, still trading inside a downward channel with upper limit @ 150 area.
- medium term, trading inside an upward smaller channel and as long as lower limit will hold we are in "buy the dips" mode.

a new monthly close is in place at 143.25. if we are to continue up then we should not see any weekly close below this value.

my guess is that if/once we have a daily close ABOVE 143.25, we are ready to go up again and 143.25 will turn into next important support.
on the other hand, if next week we get a daily close below 143.25, this means bears are in the house again and down we go... 141.87... maybe even 136 area.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #223,024
  • May 1, 2010 2:21pm May 1, 2010 2:21pm
Quoting Scrat
my current view on g-j.

- long term, still trading inside a downward channel with upper limit @ 150 area.
- medium term, trading inside an upward smaller channel and as long as lower limit will hold we are in "buy the dips" mode.

a new monthly close is in place at 143.25. if we are to continue up then we should not see any weekly close below this value.

my guess is that if/once we have a daily close ABOVE 143.25, we are ready to go up again and 143.25 will turn into next important support.
on the other hand, if next week we get...
you got my vote
  • #223,025
  • May 1, 2010 6:57pm May 1, 2010 6:57pm
Do you have an indicator that shows 78.6 level for fibs?

Quoting fullhouse
ok ..... its sat. morning here and i cant wait for the reopening of the market on sunday.WE have like 3 days left for consilidation before we will see KABOOOM !!!...

here is my view and this view is not confirm yet ,we wil see if we bounce at the 78.6 @ 142.38 ,and not take out the low..THEN THIS IS THE PATTERN WE WILL BE IN FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AND FINAL DAYS ..
we are then in a triangle .. i was waiting all 2 weeks for this triangle to develop and finally i might see, its here ....

im still on the sideline and im waiting for the bounce at...
  • #223,026
  • May 1, 2010 7:51pm May 1, 2010 7:51pm
Quoting StarChild
This is a weekly cadjyp chart... With yearly pivots. This is how i see the wave count....
Not venturing into the technical soundness of your post, but, the Canadian Dollar is hands down the strongest currency in the world this year - there's an incredibly short list of economies in the world that have (so far) weathered the economic landscape so well. Lots of reasons for that: commodity currency, soundness of banking sector, sane real estate prices, and no occurring/predictable bubbles, certainly compared to the rest of the world.

The yen and Japan on the other hand is regarded by many as a disaster ready for centre stage: gov't debt of over 200%+ of GDP (Greece is 115%+), major growth/demographic issues, and a record as abysmal fiscal management, only saved by the resourcefulness of their private sector.

Some info here on Japan Being the Next Greece and some of the PIIGS grouping, which should really take on a 'J.'

I don't follow CADYEN at all and see it was @ 75 not too long ago in Nov '09. Since then Greece has become the euro's reality check, and the safety, err, head-in-the-sand approach to Japan is quickly becoming history. Thus if there's any validity to TA of a 60 level of CADYEN, the fundamentals don't support it - I can't think of a more dyslexic level for one of the top 24/34 currency pairs, nor do I think it could be easily manipulated to those levels. But, I know, this is forex.
  • #223,027
  • May 1, 2010 9:10pm May 1, 2010 9:10pm
Thank you for your input..I agree with you..the Canadian Dollar is very strong...it would have to drop below 89.50 for any major down move..we have a hudge inverted head and shoulder pattern..a break of that could be a hudge move up...

Quoting Beljevina
Not venturing into the technical soundness of your post, but, the Canadian Dollar is hands down the strongest currency in the world this year - there's an incredibly short list of economies in the world that have (so far) weathered the economic landscape so well. Lots of reasons for that: commodity currency, soundness of banking sector, sane real estate prices, and no occurring/predictable bubbles, certainly compared to the rest of the world.

The yen and Japan on the other hand is regarded by many as a disaster ready for centre stage:...
  • #223,028
  • May 1, 2010 9:23pm May 1, 2010 9:23pm
Quoting Beljevina
Not venturing into the technical soundness of your post, but, the Canadian Dollar is hands down the strongest currency in the world this year - there's an incredibly short list of economies in the world that have (so far) weathered the economic landscape so well. Lots of reasons for that: commodity currency, soundness of banking sector, sane real estate prices, and no occurring/predictable bubbles, certainly compared to the rest of the world.

The yen and Japan on the other hand is regarded by many as a disaster ready for centre stage:...
Haven't posted on this thread for some time, but still lurk quite often. Yes the Canadian dollar is strong, but the fundamentals you list are far from the truth. Sane real estate prices, safe banks, and no bubbles you say? I don't think so. The truth about Canada is going to take a lot of people by surprise. USD/CAD is going to go parabolic to the upside when Phase 2 of the crisis begins and when speculators discover the truth about Canada's banks and real estate bubble. As far as CADYEN goes, no shorts yet, but the time is coming. Canada has got the world fooled. For now.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,029
  • May 1, 2010 9:36pm May 1, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting Flem26
Haven't posted on this thread for some time, but still lurk quite often. Yes the Canadian dollar is strong, but the fundamentals you list are far from the truth. Sane real estate prices, safe banks, and no bubbles you say? I don't think so. The truth about Canada is going to take a lot of people by surprise. USD/CAD is going to go parabolic to the upside when Phase 2 of the crisis begins and when speculators discover the truth about Canada's banks and real estate bubble. As far as CADYEN goes, no shorts yet, but the time is coming. Canada has got...
How you know this? And when can we expect the truth to come out?
  • #223,030
  • Edited May 2, 2010 5:27am May 1, 2010 10:03pm | Edited May 2, 2010 5:27am
Quoting Flem26
Haven't posted on this thread for some time, but still lurk quite often. Yes the Canadian dollar is strong, but the fundamentals you list are far from the truth. Sane real estate prices, safe banks, and no bubbles you say? I don't think so. The truth about Canada is going to take a lot of people by surprise. USD/CAD is going to go parabolic to the upside when Phase 2 of the crisis begins and when speculators discover the truth about Canada's banks and real estate bubble. As far as CADYEN goes, no shorts yet, but the time is coming. Canada has got...
Agree.. USD/ CAD... ( Technically).. I am waiting for 0.97xx - 0.92xx to Buy.. For a Long time.. CAD WILL stay strong for few more months...

US $ ..seems to be the Mega Bull... for a Year or 2...Then Major Sell off..

HAVE YOU SEEN THE HAMMER AT CLUSTER FIB SUPPORT ON MONTHLY CHARTS...SIGNAL...strong REVERSAL...BUY ..BUY.. BUY...

If ANY BODY who has time Put a GARTLEY CALCULATIONS ON IT...It seems a Major BULL to me....I dont have that INDI..Thanks.
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #223,031
  • May 1, 2010 10:06pm May 1, 2010 10:06pm
Quoting 2+2=4ex
How you know this? And when can we expect the truth to come out?
Garth Turner and Danielle Park have been writing about the Canadian housing bubble for quite some time. The majority of the mortgages that have been given the last few years are backed by CMHC (ala Fannie & Freddie). The banks had no problem giving away 0 down 35 to 40 year mortgages when the risk would fall on the taxpayer. Most of the rates are not fixed (they have to renegotiate on average every 5 years). Teaser rates anyone? Sound familiar?

Malcomb is in BC and has posted on several occasions the outrageous real estate prices in Vancouver. The average single-family shack there is fetching 1 million. Canada is so small compared to the rest of the world, no one even bothers to question the validity of their claims. If the finance minister says "our banks are the soundest in the world", the majority just seem to believe it. Do it at your peril.

I mean for crying out loud, homes in Saskatchewan and Alberta are averaging 300,000 to 400,000. Saskatchewan is in the middle of nowhere, but the fact that they have potash is enough justification for those high prices? That is ridiculous.

As far as the technicals for USD/CAD and CAD/YEN are concerned, yes they have had respectable runs that I would not dare trade against. But at some point, the tide is going to turn. Trade safe.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,032
  • May 1, 2010 10:15pm May 1, 2010 10:15pm
This guy here does a pretty good job on his blog laying it all out:

The Country of Fiscal Prudence

"Canada.

The land of the strong and free. The land of fiscal prudence. Or so we have been told."

I apologize for hijacking the thread, but I get tired of the "Canada can do no wrong" argument that has been broadcast everywhere up here from the infomercial mainstream media to the so-called economists and especially the politicians.

Orionsway! Holla at your boy.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,033
  • May 1, 2010 10:18pm May 1, 2010 10:18pm
Quoting Raza
Agree.. USD/ CAD... ( Technically).. I am waiting for 0.97xx - 0.92xx to Buy.. For a Long time..

US $ ..seems to be the Mega Bull... for a Year or 2...Then Major Sell off..
Raza what's new?
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,034
  • May 1, 2010 10:23pm May 1, 2010 10:23pm
Quoting Flem26
Haven't posted on this thread for some time, but still lurk quite often. Yes the Canadian dollar is strong, but the fundamentals you list are far from the truth. Sane real estate prices, safe banks, and no bubbles you say? I don't think so. The truth about Canada is going to take a lot of people by surprise. USD/CAD is going to go parabolic to the upside when Phase 2 of the crisis begins and when speculators discover the truth about Canada's banks and real estate bubble. As far as CADYEN goes, no shorts yet, but the time is coming. Canada has got...
You've got my curiosity piqued - all the things I mentioned are in terms relative to the rest of the world. Sure, things aren't ideal, but taking the key economic indicators & failure points of other countries, there's a certain safety to be found within what drives and comprises Canada. Not sure if you're going to point to things like Canada's Debt (ie., ~$35K per Ontarian), or the $14B of collected transfer payments, $8B of which go to Quebec, a (as I term it) Greek-like society. (Perhaps unrelated, but for those who got a kick out of the CDN debt clock, check out the US version, and some of the #'s )

My point was, that there's a long list of G20 and other economies that are in far more dire shape, who's skeleton's are more likely to surface and be the initiator of major concern before there's any real spotlight cast on Canada's issues. If you really want to be precise about it, there's nary a place/currency in the world that is not laden with issues, hence my reference to relative comparisons.

My initial statement and expectations of the safety to be found within Canada (or CADYEN) I feel would be valid for many years ... perhaps once we get 3/5/10/20 years out, things could change dramatically, but that goes beyond any FX timeline we're planning to, which is what the core of my initial response was built around.

EDIT: Hmm, I see you just added a few posts, blogs, since I started my response ... based on a first quick glance, I think we agree more than we disagree, but again, I call back to relative terms & comparisons among G20s & others. For now, have to head to bed.
  • #223,035
  • Edited May 2, 2010 5:15am May 1, 2010 10:55pm | Edited May 2, 2010 5:15am
Quoting Flem26
Raza what's new?
Nothing much... How about YOU?

Full house Why would you Short this..? Unless for Scalp..

This thing was in range for 11 Months..and previous resistence which has become support has been tested at 90 once !!!!

If its Below 78.56.. then Short 4 Sure.. But we are far from it...

First Resistence to the UP side is.. 98xx.. Would be safe to sell from There..IMO..

If it Breaks the Upper Orange TL..its a BUY..IMO..

Of course Could be Wrong... I see Bullish Divergence on RSI..DAILY..
Weekly is almost But not Yet OVERBOUGHT....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #223,036
  • May 1, 2010 11:03pm May 1, 2010 11:03pm
Quoting Raza
Nothing much... How about YOU?

Full house Why would you Short this..? Unless for Scalp..

If its Below 78.56.. then Short 4 Sure.. But we are far from it...

If it Breaks the Upper Orange TL..its a BUY..IMO..

Of course Could be Wrong... I see Bullish Divergence on RSI..DAILY..
Weekly is almost But not Yet OVERSOLD..
Not much here. Yeah, I wouldn't dare short it for long. Maybe down to 91.50 and that isn't even worth the stress. If 91.50 doesn't hold, then 90.50 may come into play. I'm bearish USD/Yen though. I got this gut feeling that Uncle Buck and the Yen are about to strengthen big time once again. But you know what they say about gut feelings. It's all about the charts when all is said and done.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #223,037
  • May 1, 2010 11:33pm May 1, 2010 11:33pm
okay.
Quoting Scrat
my current view on g-j.

- long term, still trading inside a downward channel with upper limit @ 150 area.
- medium term, trading inside an upward smaller channel and as long as lower limit will hold we are in "buy the dips" mode.

a new monthly close is in place at 143.25. if we are to continue up then we should not see any weekly close below this value.

my guess is that if/once we have a daily close ABOVE 143.25, we are ready to go up again and 143.25 will turn into next important support.
on the other hand, if next week we get a daily...
  • #223,038
  • May 2, 2010 5:56am May 2, 2010 5:56am
By: Terry Allen
Do you think that your Forex trading is suffering from self-sabotage? You may be surprised to learn that an alarming number of traders, especially novices, suffer from this condition. If you have not taken the time to develop your trading psychology so that you can trade with the discipline and consistency that is required for success, then you could well be your own worst enemy.
You will find that self-sabotage can adversely affect your Forex trading in a number of ways such as the following:-
1. You know you must place stop-losses for every position that you open in order to protect your account, but you do not.
2. When you are already aware of the golden trading rules for Forex success, but you cannot be bothered to use them.
3. You have been advised to carefully design and test your trading strategy, but you do not. You just go on trading mindlessly instead.
4. Experts have advised you to treat your Forex trading like a business and produce a business plan. However, you cannot be bothered because this task will involve you in too much work.
These are just a few examples of this condition. You must understand that the central causes for self-sabotage emulate from your own internal conflicts and emotions that are out of control and counter your best interests.
As such, you will discover that you are simply repeating the same mistakes time and again. If you do not develop the ability to be brutally honest with yourself, then you will not be able to enter your own head and sort out your beliefs. Instead, you will do what many traders do and just stick your head in the sand playing mindless games with the numerous Forex toys on the market.
You need a plan that will enable you to trade Forex using a consistent set of rules. If you do not have any rules at all, then everything you do will simply be mistakes. For example, your rules may advise you to always trade by risking not more than 2% of your total balance per trade. However, you decide not to do this and risk 10%.
If you do this once, then you could pass it off as a simple mistake. However, if you do this action more than three times in a row, then this is self-sabotage. In addition, if you perform such a stupid series of actions, then you will also find that you will have hardly any account left.

If you want to achieve Forex success, then you will have to strive hard to extract yourself from this very negative mindset. You will probably require some time to perform this action because Forex is such a complex subject. However, you must always remember that other professionals such as doctors and lawyers require many years to perfect their craft. If you do not take the required steps, then you are, instead, just gambling on Forex
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #223,039
  • May 2, 2010 6:05am May 2, 2010 6:05am
Quoting donfriday
Mate i am not against ur prediction but for u not to keep mistaking ur chart set up i would like to tell u that ur Fibonacci swing high and low is 100% in wrong position..0.0 must come before 100.0 but on ur chart ur 100.0 came before 0.0..
check it out.. i can be wrong too ...just my opinion..
Mate, I don't want to argue with you, but isn't this the right way to draw fibo retracement ?
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Addicted to FX
  • #223,040
  • May 2, 2010 6:06am May 2, 2010 6:06am
Quoting Powerm@n
Mate, I don't want to argue with you, but isn't this the right way to draw fibo retracement ?
it gives you the same value anyway isn't it.?...

By the Way from your chart looks like its in wave5 which has not finished yet..

Its gonna be an intersting Week coming up...and an interesting Time from Now ON....for many

Currencies..

I can say this Much that GBP could be a Major Bull along with CAD..
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
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