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Attachments: Why 61.8%?
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Why 61.8%?

  • #81
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:47pm Apr 30, 2010 12:47pm
I'd also like to add that I find peoples emotional attachment to technical inicators alarming. Some folks act like you've just spat on their kid when you point out some simple truths about some simple numbers.
  • #82
  • Apr 30, 2010 12:53pm Apr 30, 2010 12:53pm
Hmmm.....sounds like some of you guys in this thread have limited your exploration of Fibs to basic retracements, and then dismissed their usefulness and labelled them BS.

As they say.....

"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder"

"Beauty is more than skin deep"


Whatever works for someone obviously isn't BS to them!


And that is all I'm going to say on the subject! (well probably not but that's the plan, lol)
  • #83
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:03pm Apr 30, 2010 1:03pm
Quoting pipmutt
Hmmm.....sounds like some of you guys in this thread have limited your exploration of Fibs to basic retracements, and then dismissed their usefulness and labelled them BS.

As they say.....

"Beauty is in the eye of the beholder"

"Beauty is more than skin deep"


Whatever works for someone obviously isn't BS to them!


And that is all I'm going to say on the subject! (well probably not but that's the plan, lol)
For the record, and about the gajillionth time, I have never siad they're not useful. The simple fact is they have no underlying mathematical meaning in the market.
  • #84
  • Edited 1:26pm Apr 30, 2010 1:11pm | Edited 1:26pm
Quoting acumen
how many MIT dorks are there on the Forbes list?

m


Want your kid to become one of the richest people in the world? Send them to Harvard.
The Cambridge, Mass., school tops our first-ever billionaire college study with an alumni base that features 54 10-figure titans, more than 5% of the world's billionaires. Of those 54 plutocrats, 11 received an undergraduate degree, 41 earned a master's, doctorate or juris doctorate, and two earned two degrees.

Harvard's 10-figure grads include Philip Falcone, who studied economics, John Paulson, who earned his M.B.A. there, and hedge fund manager Ken Griffin, who began trading from his dorm room while an undergrad before creating money management outfit Citadel in 1990.

You're arguments are trite, regurgitated nonsense.

edit: Here the link; http://www.forbes.com/2009/08/02/bil...09-wealth.html
  • #85
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:13pm Apr 30, 2010 1:13pm
Quoting hanover
.........Having said that, I'm not a great fibo fan. If I may generalize, I would arrange the commonly used line studies in this (descending) order of reliability: candle S/R (James16 'PPZs'), round numbers, trendlines, pivot levels, and fibos last.
..........
If a key fibo retracement level (38.2, 50, 61.8) coincides with some of the other S/R types, then I believe it does no harm to assume that some traders may be watching it, which adds potential weight to the possibility of a reversal in that area.
Just found a recent chart (see attached screenshot) that illustrates what I meant back in post #43.

The high of candle 'A' is a near perfect low risk (short) entry. It coincides with (in order or reliability, IMO) a flipover triple bottom (manually drawn white line), the daily R1 pivot (red dashed line - partly obscured), a round number (1.5350 - dotted gray line), a previous daily low (dark blue line - difficult to see), and lastly a 50% fibo retrace of the obvious swing from the Asian session high (dotted yellow line). All of these fall within about 8 pips of each other, allowing a tight SL and a potentially high RR trade. For me, the fibo level merely adds weight to an already high probability setup.

Just for the record (and for those who believe that exits are important ), my scale out points are: (1) close of the long red candle 5 candles after 'A' (because it's a large candle backed by a red bar on the Better Volume indy, a combo which frequently denotes impending exhaustion), and (2) when the candle closes above the solid yellow ATR line (in the hope of catching a 'home run' trade).

If our initial SL was 10 pips, these exits would have resulted in 8:1 and 4:1 RR - not too shabby, IMO. Traders can argue whether entries or exits are more important, but in this case the setup facilitated a low risk entry, and consequently a high RR result.

Now for the confession. This chart is posted in hindsight, LOL. I wasn't looking at the cable last night; the GBP and USD weren't the most negative correlated currencies.

Anyway, the original purpose of the post was merely to illustrate the 'incidental' way in which I use fibos. I'm sure that others have found better ways, but I'm happy enough with my existing overall methodology.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: fibo example.jpg Size: 121 KB
  • #86
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:48pm Apr 30, 2010 1:48pm
Quoting hanover
Just found a recent chart (see attached screenshot) that illustrates what I meant back in post #43.

The high of candle 'A' is a near perfect low risk (short) entry. It coincides with (in order or reliability, IMO) a flipover triple bottom (manually drawn white line), the daily R1 pivot (red dashed line - partly obscured), a round number (1.5350 - dotted gray line), a previous daily low (dark blue line - difficult to see), and lastly a 50% fibo retrace of the obvious swing from the Asian session high (dotted yellow line). All of these fall within...
Dude, I know a thread that put me through the ringer for charts looking like that...

Enviable SL, RR.
  • #87
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:07pm Apr 30, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting acumen
ok.

who cares.

if banks trade with dog shit then i'm buying several large dogs.

this site ain't for theoreticians.

how many MIT dorks are there on the Forbes list?

m
Why do all amateurs believe that most bankers are profitable speculators? I wonder how this myth become so popular.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #88
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:09pm Apr 30, 2010 2:09pm
Quoting nubcake
this place is a lot like a blonde convention. this makes me quite sad....


I could not agree more
  • #89
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:12pm Apr 30, 2010 2:12pm
Quoting Ted1983

Extraordinary claims require evidence.
Ah now I get it, me thought thou doth protest too much
  • #90
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:14pm Apr 30, 2010 2:14pm
Quoting hanover
...to illustrate the 'incidental' way in which I use fibos....
What if that 50% hadn't been there, would you still have taken the trade?

By the way, is that a typical working chart you'd usually trade off?
  • #91
  • Apr 30, 2010 2:42pm Apr 30, 2010 2:42pm
Quoting pipmutt
Ah now I get it, me thought thou doth protest too much
What, me? I haven't made any.
  • #92
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:22pm Apr 30, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting Ted1983
Want your kid to become one of the richest people in the world? Send them to Harvard.
The Cambridge, Mass., school tops our first-ever billionaire college study with an alumni base that features 54 10-figure titans, more than 5% of the world's billionaires[i]. Of those 54 plutocrats, 11 received an undergraduate degree, 41 earned a master's, doctorate or juris doctorate, and two earned two degrees....
they aren't mathematicians are they.

as a general rule math turd cutters make shitty traders.

that's the point.

m
  • #93
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:26pm Apr 30, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting acumen
they aren't mathematicians are they.

as a general rule math turd cutters make shitty traders.

that's the point.

m
Yes they are mathematically/ logically oriented.
  • #94
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:29pm Apr 30, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting acumen
i don't know if they are or aren't but they MOVE this market.

that's all that matters.

i wonder how many stupid fukers we can get on one thread.

m
Seems like someone got a fully understanding of the underlying market-structure
Measure twice, cut once
  • #95
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:58pm Apr 30, 2010 3:58pm
Quoting pipmutt
What if that 50% hadn't been there, would you still have taken the trade?

By the way, is that a typical working chart you'd usually trade off?
Yes, I would have taken the trade. My basic entry is a strong (preferably big candle) push through a significant level, and then a pullback to the same level (I like to let price come to me, rather than chase it). In this particular example, the flipover S/R is the overriding criterion, especially as there are so many prior candle lows around that same level. The other factors (pivots, round numbers, etc) add weight, in approximately the order of reliability that I mentioned (explained further in the 'visibility' post). I also look for possible confirmation in trendlines, OB/OS areas (Bollinger bands as a rough statistical measure), and stochastic divergences, and although none of these applied in this case, there were still enough reasons to make this a very good entry (IMHO ). However, unfortunately I wasn't looking at this pair; perhaps I'm placing too much importance on longer term trend/strength, but I'm still learning and experimenting.

Yes, this is a typical chart that I trade off. To many folk it must seem horribly cluttered, but every line is there for a reason, as I look for groups of lines clustered around the same area. The more reasons I can find for price to bounce within a certain area, the more confidence I have in taking the trade, and with a fairly tight SL. I'm slowly finding that as my judgment improves, this confidence is also justified, results-wise. However, being of anxious disposition, it only takes a couple of bad weeks to bring the doubts flooding back in; do I really have an edge? Ah well.

I'm also working hard on improving my exits, i.e. letting profits run unless there are compelling technical reasons to scale out earlier. It's certainly not a precise science.
  • #96
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:59pm Apr 30, 2010 3:59pm
In trading, just as in life, extremism is generally pretty stupid.

You guys should chill out.
  • #97
  • Apr 30, 2010 4:13pm Apr 30, 2010 4:13pm
Dang! Ain't seen so much excitement since the hogs ate cousin Billybob.
  • #98
  • Apr 30, 2010 4:20pm Apr 30, 2010 4:20pm
This thread will certainly be entertainment for a while.
  • #99
  • Edited 6:14pm Apr 30, 2010 4:21pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting Jonty
In trading, just as in life, extremism is generally pretty stupid.

You guys should chill out.

Hear, hear.
  • #100
  • Apr 30, 2010 4:36pm Apr 30, 2010 4:36pm
Quoting hanover
Yes, I would have taken the trade. My basic entry is a strong (preferably big candle) push through a significant level, and then a pullback to the same level (I like to let price come to me, rather than chase it). In this particular example, the flipover S/R is the overriding criterion, especially as there are so many prior candle lows around that same level.
Ok, that sounds like a breakout strategy with the other bits added in for confirmation and confidence, is that about right? I'm taking it you didn't get the same results without them?

Quoting hanover
Yes, this is a typical chart that I trade off. To many folk it must seem horribly cluttered, but every line is there for a reason, as I look for groups of lines clustered around the same area.
For me yes it would be a bit too busy but if they've all got a use then it's hard to argue against having them there. I've still got a moving average on my charts from way back but it's become something of a vestigial organ, I just can't throw it out though!
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