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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,721
  • Apr 28, 2010 3:32pm Apr 28, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting ibiam
I Suggest that you should study the technical indicators very well and principles guiding them as well as technical analysis. Again you can also study technical break out for profitable trade.
Now that you bring it up I'm sure he will...
  • #14,722
  • Apr 28, 2010 3:38pm Apr 28, 2010 3:38pm
Hey guys, I was away from trading today, how was it man ? Please tell me your hits and misses. The charts looked "friendly" though....

edit : nothing against nigeria, but everytime I see something from nigeria online, I think scam...
  • #14,723
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:00pm Apr 28, 2010 4:00pm
And I thought I have tolerance issues

Greece was all over the pace again only that it felt like CBs finally got sick of it and pushed back before it got really ugly below 1,31. I did grab a few bits and pieces of the action, nothing much. Hanging with a scout in the middle of the pullback now. It seems the street took well the FOMC statement and closed some dollar positions to get some more juicy stuff. It is quite a battle tho - rumor has it that Goldman is actively shorting Europe using the same US taxpayer's money that the IMF will put to action to bail Greece out. I just love the theater of it all, LOL

@MyTbo - hey man, good to see you did well, stay safe and keep up the good work
  • #14,724
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:17pm Apr 28, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting Setebos
And I thought I have tolerance issues

Greece was all over the pace again only that it felt like CBs finally got sick of it and pushed back before it got really ugly below 1,31. I did grab a few bits and pieces of the action, nothing much. Hanging with a scout in the middle of the pullback now. It seems the street took well the FOMC statement and closed some dollar positions to get some more juicy stuff. It is quite a battle tho - rumor has it that Goldman is actively shorting Europe using the same US taxpayer's money that the IMF will put to...
I see, the action seemed pretty contained compared to previous rate days. Turn out yesterday was more exciting. I do not follow news the way you do, however I do see classic chart movements all over the place, following your post, it probably made sense. As to whether CBs are involved or not, its anybody's guess, personally I think it is just a knee jerk reaction to the news and the move is not definitive. 2400 ? hehe

Gotta get some sleep, see you guys tmr....
  • #14,725
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:24pm Apr 28, 2010 4:24pm
Quoting ibiam
I Suggest that you should study the technical indicators very well and principles guiding them as well as technical analysis. Again you can also study technical break out for profitable trade.
You just can't make this stuff up. LOL.
  • #14,726
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:54pm Apr 28, 2010 4:54pm
Quoting ibiam
I Suggest that you should study the technical indicators very well and principles guiding them as well as technical analysis. Again you can also study technical break out for profitable trade.
Ibiam,
you are fantastic.
Thanks for the suggestion.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #14,727
  • Apr 28, 2010 5:08pm Apr 28, 2010 5:08pm
Quoting Setebos
And I thought I have tolerance issues

Greece was all over the pace again only that it felt like CBs finally got sick of it and pushed back before it got really ugly below 1,31. I did grab a few bits and pieces of the action, nothing much. Hanging with a scout in the middle of the pullback now. It seems the street took well the FOMC statement and closed some dollar positions to get some more juicy stuff. It is quite a battle tho - rumor has it that Goldman is actively shorting Europe using the same US taxpayer's money that the IMF will put to...
IMHO -- I think we are watching something historically significant here as Spain joins Protugal and Greece in a growing credit squeeze. I guess Italy and Ireland are next, and then we'll see if tax payers in Northern Europe will pay for poorer performing nations in Southern Europe, and if Southern European nations can cut their debt and public spending. Polls in Germany say the answer to that question, so far, is no; the same if true with polls in Greece and Portugal. If these things do not change (and change soon) we will see then end of the EU and the euro within months. How is that for crystal balling in the middle of the week? Of course, you can't make a trade on any of that, so back to reading charts.

Edit: One more interesting piece of news from today is that Greece needs something like 120 billion euro rescue and not 45 billion. What the heck, I thought there were only 10 million people in the whole country.
  • #14,728
  • Apr 28, 2010 5:31pm Apr 28, 2010 5:31pm
Quoting GEfx
IMHO
Edit: One more interesting piece of news from today is that Greece needs something like 120 billion euro rescue and not 45 billion. What the heck, I thought there were only 10 million people in the whole country.
Yeah 10,737,428. There GDP is $342.2 billion...
  • #14,729
  • Apr 28, 2010 6:05pm Apr 28, 2010 6:05pm
Quoting GEfx
IMHO -- I think we are watching something historically significant here as Spain joins Protugal and Greece in a growing credit squeeze. I guess Italy and Ireland are next, and then we'll see if tax payers in Northern Europe will pay for poorer performing nations in Southern Europe, and if Southern European nations can cut their debt and public spending. Polls in Germany say the answer to that question, so far, is no; the same if true with polls in Greece and Portugal. If these things do not change (and change soon) we will see then end of the EU...
Beware the Bond Vigilantes.

your imf money at work..
http://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/faq/contribution.htm
  • #14,730
  • Apr 28, 2010 6:06pm Apr 28, 2010 6:06pm
Quoting GEfx
IMHO -- I think we are watching something historically significant here as Spain joins Protugal and Greece in a growing credit squeeze. I guess Italy and Ireland are next, and then we'll see if tax payers in Northern Europe will pay for poorer performing nations in Southern Europe, and if Southern European nations can cut their debt and public spending. Polls in Germany say the answer to that question, so far, is no; the same if true with polls in Greece and Portugal. If these things do not change (and change soon) we will see then end of the EU...
Yeah, it's all balancing on a razor blade now. If Greece defaults that will put immense pressure on European banks, especially on French ones as they have the larges exposure to Greek debt. You could only imagine what's going to happen should Portugal or, god save us, Spain/Italy goes down that road - it will mean the crash of European banking system. Even the IMF with its half a trillion paycheck can't bail that out. So I think Greece will get bailed out, however the larger question remains - what's going to stop the rest of the PIIGS from requesting the same treatment?
I heard the number 120 going round the channel too... At this point I think that such amount of money is science fiction

Anyone watching E$? What's with the twilight zone activity?
  • #14,731
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:03pm Apr 28, 2010 7:03pm
Off to the races to 1.3100 ^^ My opinion anyways
  • #14,732
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:10pm Apr 28, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting Deusomega
Off to the races to 1.3100 ^^
very likely but eye on 1.3150 zone.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #14,733
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:31pm Apr 28, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting luSan
very likely but eye on 1.3150 zone.
Yup good area as well
  • #14,734
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:52pm Apr 28, 2010 8:52pm
Quoting ibiam
I Suggest that you should study the technical indicators very well and principles guiding them as well as technical analysis. Again you can also study technical break out for profitable trade.
Gee,

Why didn't I think of that.
"If it bleeds ... we can kill it"
  • #14,735
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:52pm Apr 28, 2010 8:52pm
eyes on 3181-3202 looking for direction
  • #14,736
  • Apr 28, 2010 11:43pm Apr 28, 2010 11:43pm
Quoting GEfx;
IMHO -- I think we are watching something historically significant here as Spain joins Protugal and Greece in a growing credit squeeze. I guess Italy and Ireland are next, and then we'll see if tax payers in Northern Europe will pay for poorer performing nations in Southern Europe, and if Southern European nations can cut their debt and public spending. Polls in Germany say the answer to that question, so far, is no; the same if true with polls in Greece and Portugal. If these things do not change (and change soon) we will see then end of the EU and the euro within months. How is that for crystal balling in the middle of the week? Of course, you can't make a trade on any of that, so back to reading charts.

Edit: One more interesting piece of news from today is that Greece needs something like 120 billion euro rescue and not 45 billion. What the heck, I thought there were only 10 million people in the whole country.
I am pretty sure not all the crap has hit the fan yet.
Debt downgrade might also mean more collateral is needed since bank/govt credit ratings are crappier than previously thought. (crisis of confidence).
In other words, dowtrend in EU is not dead yet.

When finally, everything is more or less over, we should see a pretty massive short covering rally. The typical 'buy on rumour, sell on fact' (opp here of course). But fundamentally, EU's economic performance will not rival the US anytime in the nx 1 year+ so the Brrooooooaddddd trend, will be down.

My 0.2pips.
--
LOL.
I can see why I like this thread everyone "loves" indicators as much as I do.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,737
  • Edited 11:28am Apr 29, 2010 11:12am | Edited 11:28am
note taken 1.3181 - 3202 area and in, watching how e/u 3242 area responds.

info for set up of new state possibility.
http://video.foxnews.com/v/4170665/the-one-thing-428
  • #14,738
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:43pm Apr 29, 2010 8:43pm
Overall sentiment seems to be pretty positive.
Market is thinking about great earnings they're seeing this season now and assuming more or less that the political will is going to be strong enough to pull the EZ through this Greece thingo.

Risk of exogenous shocks are still very present... that's the biggest risk I see.

Am watching for price action @ 3265 region. JPN open is muted today with good amt of support from 3230 to 32fig.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,739
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:29am Apr 30, 2010 3:29am
let's see if the e/u resistance holds.
  • #14,740
  • Apr 30, 2010 3:58am Apr 30, 2010 3:58am
Quoting piccolo
let's see if the e/u resistance holds.
It's a pretty congested zone, should hold the sell off fo rthe day, IMHO.
Anyone traded the all-over-the-place-mess yesterday? Was that one of those rare diamond formations or it's just my eye playing games on me?

I never thought I'd say that, but these days cable looks much more attractive to me. The world's definitely gone wild
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