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Lusan Journal II

  • #141
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:07pm Apr 28, 2010 8:07pm
Interesting 15M chart.
See the TL:
6 touches
Will it be a seventh?
I feel that 1.3150 might be the floor
of this triangle.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TL1.jpg Size: 60 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #142
  • Apr 28, 2010 9:07pm Apr 28, 2010 9:07pm
im sure you've noticed it. price can be very undiscerning.

there are times they break the trendline and follow thru. and there are times they just fall back into the old trend rendering the tl useless. and then there are times where they just slide thru like as if the line never existed, this is esp true during quiet trading like the asian session.

how do you intnd to approach this trade bro?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: TL1.jpg Size: 65 KB
  • #143
  • Apr 29, 2010 6:38am Apr 29, 2010 6:38am
Quoting jest1081
im sure you've noticed it. price can be very undiscerning.

there are times they break the trendline and follow thru. and there are times they just fall back into the old trend rendering the tl useless. and then there are times where they just slide thru like as if the line never existed, this is esp true during quiet trading like the asian session.

how do you intnd to approach this trade bro?
No plan to introduce it. However it is amussing to watch it. Now S/R and Fibo levels have more interest even those behave likewise; they might be more useful.

Still TL on the 15M are something to watch to keep us alert. (Note that many people develop their trading strategy around TL. I do not. I go for whatever feel right at the moment.

Right now I want to go short but unemployment numbers are coming out in 60 min so I am out. Actually I became flat last night prior to bed time. The market is surranded of levels, W and D want to go south, but 1H and 15M wants to go north...so almost like flipping a coin...so MM...

Still we have to make a decision about the trade. I am flat until after the unemployment numbers then I will choose the direction and As you said "Just Friggin Trade Analysis Is Futile.."

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #144
  • Apr 29, 2010 5:01pm Apr 29, 2010 5:01pm
A very tough call?
Weekly tells me to sell it.
Daily tells me to buy.
Hourly tells me to sell it
M15 tells me to wait and see.
There a wall about 1.3260
What am I to do?
I will sell this cow!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6.jpg Size: 34 KB
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #145
  • Apr 29, 2010 6:57pm Apr 29, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting luSan
A very tough call?
Weekly tells me to sell it.
Daily tells me to buy.
Hourly tells me to sell it
M15 tells me to wait and see.
There a wall about 1.3260
What am I to do?
I will sell this cow!
if i may.what is ur main time frame ?
trade from ur main time frame or if u follow all time frame wait for them to line up.
but momentum is down.it will favour short
  • #146
  • Apr 29, 2010 7:23pm Apr 29, 2010 7:23pm
Quoting trade price
if i may.what is ur main time frame ?
trade from ur main time frame or if u follow all time frame wait for them to line up.
but momentum is down.it will favour short
Currently my main time frame, the one I use for the main trend, is 15M.
However that does not mean much to me since I am very discritionary with my trading.
I might go with the H1 if I think all is fine but I am in a lossing trend...
or we are in a range like now...then the time frame does not help me much but dancing around the range mid point...
I am open to close a position, flip or shot down the trade if my gut tells me that something is not right...
if thing feels Ok, I take the punches and I could run a losing position for a long while...
why?
if we are with 1D and 1W trend, the trend will save me...
so eye on those trends...they are the lifesavers.

Yes...
I am shorting with my attention on 1.3190
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #147
  • Apr 29, 2010 7:31pm Apr 29, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting luSan
Currently my main time frame, the one I use for the main trend, is 15M.
However that does not mean much to me since I am very discritionary with my trading.
I might go with the H1 if I think all is fine but I am in a lossing trend...
or we are in a range like now...then the time frame does not help me much but dancing around the range mid point...
I am open to close a position, flip or shot down the trade if my gut tells me that something is not right...
if thing feels Ok, I take the punches and I could run a losing position for a long while...
why?...
sounds to me institutional stratagy.so u run them from lower time frame to higher.obviously u need deeper pocket.its fine mate as long as u can follow.most people mess with those sort of stratagy and blow the account.it needs havy decipline to trade like that.

as long as u make money its fine buddy.
do u avarage?
  • #148
  • Apr 29, 2010 7:40pm Apr 29, 2010 7:40pm
Hi luSan, so this is where you've been hanging out -- lol. Hope you are well and glad to see you are still after pips. Hope you are well and I enjoy reading your posts here. Take care.
  • #149
  • Apr 29, 2010 7:59pm Apr 29, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting trade price
sounds to me institutional stratagy.so u run them from lower time frame to higher.obviously u need deeper pocket.its fine mate as long as u can follow.most people mess with those sort of stratagy and blow the account.it needs havy decipline to trade like that.

as long as u make money its fine buddy.
do u avarage?
It is probably an institutional strategy.
It is whatever I was able to learned from fti and from my own trading practice.
Deep pocket?
Not really I keep my trading size within the limit that my account and my mindset can manage.
You see...I am not after wealth nor a full time trading job
at this time
-I have a well paid day job-
but I love the fun of a good trading campaign.
My average?
in scalping mode about 95 %
-but I do not believe I have the mental
stamina to hold it extended period of time
so I prefer a more relaxed trading style
and I am about 75 %-
I do not pay attention to it anymore
but
I attempt to end every week in a positive territory.
And I must tell you...that is not really easy....
trading is darn hard....
yes...you buy and sell...easy...
but when to buy and when to sell...
that is the tough part.

Ah...
I am in the green for the night...
will PA give me 1.3190...
if so I would be happy...
let us watch the show!
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #150
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:02pm Apr 29, 2010 8:02pm
Quoting GEfx
Hi luSan, so this is where you've been hanging out -- lol. Hope you are well and glad to see you are still after pips. Hope you are well and I enjoy reading your posts here. Take care.
Yes, sir.
I started my journal again.
I feel more freedom here
than in any other thread.

Please feel welcome.

Regards,
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #151
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:05pm Apr 29, 2010 8:05pm
Quoting luSan

My average?
in scalping mode about 95 %
He meant averaging
  • #152
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:19pm Apr 29, 2010 8:19pm
Quoting Deusomega
He meant averaging
Ah...
I rarely average anymore...
sometimes I do a single rescue attempt: 1-1
However I would prefer not!
I found that they are not really worthy...
if I am behind 100 pips
then
I really screwed up.
-Better it is to review the trade, if 50-100 pips
behind, and check the 1D and 1W trend.-
Should I send more cash to the dragon?
-the answer is: NO!-
This approach works for a while
then you get burned.
-At least that is my experience.
So I am trading a single position.
If mis-timing, rescue only once.
if still wrong.
-that would be equivalent to
150 pips per campaing;
within my allowed present losses limit-
So better is
to Pull the plug
and take a trading day break.
that is better than emotional
decisions.-
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #153
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:28pm Apr 29, 2010 8:28pm
Quoting luSan
Ah...
I rarely average anymore...
sometimes I do a single rescue attempt: 1-1
However I would prefer not!
I found that they are not really worthy...
if I am behind 100 pips
then
I really screwed up.
-Better it is to review the trade, if 50-100 pips
behind, and check the 1D and 1W trend.-
Should I send more cash to the dragon?
-the answer is: NO!-
This approach works for a while
then you get burned.
-At least that is my experience.
So I am trading a single position.
If mis-timing, rescue only once.
if still wrong.
-that would be equivalent to
150...
yes buddy
i know that.i used to work for a farm as well.thats why i asked u .
this stratagy is very profitable only for institution.they have deep pocket to push any levels.its very hard for retails traders to follow this stratagy.
any way good luck to u buddy.
keep up ur good work.
happy trading
sho
  • #154
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:44pm Apr 29, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting luSan
It is probably an institutional strategy.
It is whatever I was able to learned from fti and from my own trading practice.
Deep pocket?
Not really I keep my trading size within the limit that my account and my mindset can manage.
You see...I am not after wealth nor a full time trading job
at this time
-I have a well paid day job-
but I love the fun of a good trading campaign.
My average?
in scalping mode about 95 %
-but I do not believe I have the mental
stamina to hold it extended period of time
so I prefer a more relaxed trading style
and...
since you've fallen into heresy...like me.
should i suggest that you may possibly find index tradin more....interesting?

since you're in the US you should have time to peek at HSI during their trading hours. you wont be working at that period right? i've fallen back into the hourly coz i just cant keep up with the short frames and manage hours and hours of screen time. While i still scale, the pip tolerance has to grow as well. But as you can vaguely guess the past two weeks hasnt been good for me. lol!
  • #155
  • Apr 29, 2010 9:24pm Apr 29, 2010 9:24pm
Quoting trade price
yes buddy
i know that.i used to work for a farm as well.thats why i asked u .
this stratagy is very profitable only for institution.they have deep pocket to push any levels.its very hard for retails traders to follow this stratagy.
any way good luck to u buddy.
keep up ur good work.
happy trading
sho
Well if you are trading with someone like Oanda where you can make your trading size technically anything then it's the same as being a bank . It's just that you have to have a fairly decent trading capital base to make it worthwhile .
  • #156
  • Apr 29, 2010 9:38pm Apr 29, 2010 9:38pm
Quoting Deusomega
It's just that you have to have a fairly decent trading capital base to make it worthwhile .
spot on. for me, ive calculated that my base must not be lower than 100,000 to feel comfy at the same time bringing back some decent change. my book has seen a drawdown (not loss) close to 8,000 on a bad day. haha.
  • #157
  • Apr 30, 2010 5:01am Apr 30, 2010 5:01am
Quoting Deusomega
Well if you are trading with someone like Oanda where you can make your trading size technically anything then it's the same as being a bank .
Banks can see the market depth. they avarage the possition and when weak level comes they will push that level with big orders and some others institutions joins with them in the same direction.this is where they will use their main stop.they doesnot have to be right 100% of the time.if they success 50 or 60 % of the time they are in big profit.and they were avaraging the position so price does not need to go to the exact initial entry point to make decent amount of money.
me and u cant push a level with big orders.
and if we avaraging in losing position, we will end up with big margin call.even if we know the weak market point still we wont be able to move the market.we can play smaller size and stay longer in the market doesnot mean we can play like banks.and if we try that we will end up losing more than 80% of the time if we have servived so far
  • #158
  • Apr 30, 2010 8:00pm Apr 30, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting trade price
Banks can see the market depth. they avarage the possition and when weak level comes they will push that level with big orders and some others institutions joins with them in the same direction.this is where they will use their main stop.they doesnot have to be right...
I guess I was directing my response to the ability to average entry price. Meaning like 5% hard mental stop but go in with .3% scout, then .6% attack etc... And this being sometimes impossible with brokers who only offer 100,000 lots etc. Ofc if you don't have a mental stop then you have fallen into the trap of just averaging losers. Good points nonetheless.
  • #159
  • May 1, 2010 7:30am May 1, 2010 7:30am
Quoting jest1081
since you've fallen into heresy...like me.
should i suggest that you may possibly find index tradin more....interesting?
Correct. I am actually looking into ETF trading later this year.

Quoting jetst
i've fallen back into the hourly coz i just cant keep up with the short frames and manage hours and hours of screen time. While i still scale, the pip tolerance has to grow as well.
Being playing around with the H and M15.
Found that the hour is too slow for me.
Scaling up is possible but even more dangerous
and sizing appears even more important.
-in my opinion-
I am taking my time
because it seems to require modified strategy.

Quote
But as you can vaguely guess the past two weeks hasnt been good for me. lol!

I am not surprised. I have never seen so much chaotic volatility in Forex.
It reminds me of Oct 2009.It appears that only those who are into 'high frequency trading' and those that trade the weekly and trending on the 1D have an easy time.

Stay safe. The market will find its groove eventually.
Either kill the Euro or kill the dollar.
We are at the edge of hell.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #160
  • May 1, 2010 7:50am May 1, 2010 7:50am
Quoting Deusomega
I guess I was directing my response to the ability to average entry price. Meaning like 5% hard mental stop but go in with .3% scout, then .6% attack etc... And this being sometimes impossible with brokers who only offer 100,000 lots etc.
Agree.
However scaling up
seems to become very hard for me.
In my experience,
when we trade with the trend,
I would expect the in-trend legs
be longer than the out-of-trend legs.
This allows to scale up at least 3 times
It does not look that way anymore.
-We might end up quickly in the middle
of a large retrace that forces us to
either flip, get flat or hold the losing
trades for a long long time before recovering
the book.

Quote
Ofc if you don't have a mental stop then you have fallen into the trap of just averaging losers. Good points nonetheless.

I am uneasy with the mental thing...
It is very easy to become emotional and
fall into the believe that it will retrace in hour favor.
so what to do?
I choose my exit strategy before the trade starts.
Options: rescue, flip, or hold and wait for the higher time frame to carry me in its wave.

Of course,
I am in the experimenting mode.
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
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