UK Election Countdown.....

.....and various bits of tittle tattle which may interest the markets.

Next Thursday 6th May, the UK elections will take place. Typically, the counts and result are known reasonably quickly. Sometime early in the morning UK time, we will know the result.

What has been a 2 horse race for the past 40 years, suddenly became a 3 horse race after Nick Clegg from the 3rd party had a stormer during the first televised debate. Most polls show the current PM Gordon Brown in 3rd place, but polls still suggest it will be tight.

The latest polls conducted yesterday and today, (28th and 29th), show the Conservative lead has widened slightly.

The general concensus is that an outright Conservative victory would be very positive for Sterling as they have promised to start cutting the debt immediately, stating £6Bn of savings in the first year alone. The markets seem to like this approach.

An outright Labour victory is being seen as negative for Sterling as they do not intend to cut the deficit immediately, but are working on a premise similar to the US; invest more money, (ie borrow), to grow the economy out of recession. The markets are uncertain about this approach.

No one is contemplating an outright Liberal Democrat victory, including their own leader it seems, but they will become a strong voice should they get the votes the polls are suggesting.

A hung parliament with no outright winner is widely seen as very negative for Sterling as it represents a great deal of uncertainty,(and countless arguments), on how to cut the deficit.

I will be updating this thread with various bits and bobs I hear between now and next Friday, but I aim to keep this thread very active through the night of the election itself. I'll give results of the various constituency counts and provide whatever info I can derive from them; how important they are etc.

The final televised debate has just finished and early immediate polls are suggesting that Cameron and Clegg did much better than Brown. Now, polls can never be relied on, but Sterling looks to have bounced to the upside as a result of tonights instant straw ones.

My opinion at the moment is this:

Cameron poll results good = Good for Sterling.
Most other results = Bad for Sterling.

I'm keeping it simple.

Hi Ukdaytrader and thanks for the thread and info.

I expect the markets will be very volatile around this period but ultamtely the election may have the price / direction already priced in?

I'm hoping for a hung election that way we can ride the wave down for quite a few hundred pips !

Also, as i no longer live there i'm not bothered (i'm English) - but will be interesting.

Most countries that have recently held an election have voted for a change of party - the new party being one that hasn't been elected for a few elections - like the US and here in NZ, also Oz as well (i think) so it seems the UK should follow that trend.

the GU sure looks like it has another 5th wave to complete as well, which will draw the GY down with it.

anyway, wil be interesting.

cheers,
vince

thnx for that info earlier ,,made me to cut my losses early on all sterling trades ... i will be a lurker here, but cant help with info and postings! ..

Great thread. Don't ya find that listening to politicians "debate" gets very tiresome? I am actually yearning (not an overstatement) for a political leader who will come out and say what they actually think on air.

I would usually vote Conservative but I think that every time David Cameron uses the word "change" a kitten dies. Therefore I will probably abstain from voting.

Take this with a healthy pinch of salt, but last night's debate was considered Cameron's best yet.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...-for-last.html

Bear in mind, this piece will not be without bias. Although The Telegraph is regarded as a broadsheet in the UK, it's nickname is The Torygraph. (Tory being Conservative).

What is important from the last debate is the bookies are still banking on a hung parliament at 4/6.

That may change over the coming days....

Yea the debates for the most part are an exercise in well rehearsed platitudes. I'm trying not to have an opinion as I'm only interested in the result making me money.

Just wanted to put some more context around this, now that there's been some more public discussion in the media: while the rumour was probably purposeful & perhaps malicious (an urging to short so big boys could buy?), any downgrade is extremely unlikely until the election is resolved. Should a hung parliament in fact ensue, and if it takes weeks to form gov't/consensus, while the economy burns, then there's a real fear of the ratings agencies making further pronouncements against the UK.

Yes the ratings rumour mill has been grinding away in the build up to the election.
One agency, (I can't remember which one), said last week that they did not intend to downgrade the UK in the event of a hung parliament. A different agency indicated very strongly a few weeks ago that they would be very concerned by such a result.

All rumours and heresay at this point. The only thing I am working on is what result will be considered positive of negative for Sterling. The ratings agencies will do what they will do regardless.

I think Gordon Brown may have put Labour out of the race with his untimely insult of a staunch Labour voter.

The Mail or was it the Express (one of those two anyway) was awash with letters of condemnation.

Thats got to be a couple of seats worth of votes down the pan anyway.

a hung parliament seems inevitable

Absolutely valid view, but my sense from over here in NA, was that his tirade was completely civilized with the politeness factor minimizing the damage.

And for any lost votes you'll have the I-like-his-tie voters camp who'll actually secretly approve of his views, along with the "he apologized" voters, and once the waters are further muddied with irrelevant distraction over the next week, the event will end up being soap opera history mostly, IMHO.

People struggled and fought and died to give you the chance to vote in a democracy, possibly the most fragile of political systems if people don't go out and vote. If you don't like what your party is doing it's your duty to make some effort to change it. Saves people dying, to get it back from the commies or nazis or some shitty dictator. Rant over. Have a great weekend!

Thats one of the many reasons my avatar is a Union Jack, unfortunately I don't see any party representing those brave perished souls.

Pople died in the womens suffrage movement for equality and the right to vote, yet pretty much every mainstream political party wants to bow and scrape to Islamic buffoons who wish to cow women into silence. I'm not about to vote for the wankers in the BNP, so whats left?

have fun predicting the seats LOL

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8609989.stm

As I said in a few other posts on this site, The Scottish national Party could hold a strong hand in a hung Parliament. Now it's signed a deal with Plaid Cymru.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8653534.stm

The obvious effect I believe in a successful SNP is that they'd want more say in North Sea Oil. The oil rigs are, if you don't know, very much in Scottish territorial waters.

As you can imagine, any talk or rumour on this subject from any of the parties might greatly effect the GBP.

Which is very much part of union started by a Scottish monarch.
And has been presided over, very badly, by a disproportionate number of Scots PM's. (Tony Blair and Gordon Brown among them).
Yet it relies very heavily on English wealth to stay afloat.

Very unfair IMO.

Bigot!

Oh crap!!!! Was the mic still on.

Sorry Ted. I didn't mean it.

Gordon, is that you?

The Mail is gonna have a field day with this!