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Silent Service Method

  • #8,361
  • Apr 29, 2010 8:13am Apr 29, 2010 8:13am
Hey CW, Still lurking here and I have a question. The pound Dollar is trading between 1.5100 to 1.5500 during the past 4 weeks. Would you short this @ 1.5500 and consider that as a pull back or just trade up and down between the 2 points as you get candle stick signals. Also not sure if 1.5100 is a major support. more like 1.4800. I guess I'm not sure when to take the bounce and I seem to wait too long on a breakout. I need a little help and Thanks so much in advance. MR D.
Jesus my Lord
  • #8,362
  • Apr 29, 2010 9:17am Apr 29, 2010 9:17am
Quoting clockwork71
Here's a nice set up I noticed tonight while scanning the charts after work.....

INTC:
Can I get some quick feedback from you guys regarding my placement on weekly SR areas and also the daily clouds of minor SR? I am thinking that the major SR I have at 23.00 probably actually extends at least up to 23.50?

Cheers,

4x.
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  • #8,363
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:06am Apr 29, 2010 11:06am
Hi All,

Just a note regarding the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY being at critical monthly S/R levels this week. Monthly candles will close on Friday and if the following occurs then we could be well on the way to major long term trend confirmations according to my ichimoku analysis (which on the longer TF's is essentially a simple S/R play)

EUR/USD is on the monthly kumo cloud base and a close below 1.3310 means that we are likely to see a long term E/U bear market.

Even more excitingly, USD/JPY is right under the monthly kumo cloud top. A break and hold above 94.30 means we could be at the beginning of a 2-3 year bull market targeting 110-120 area.

Furthermore if you open the USD/JPY chart and then apply a 21month moving average you will see that we are just about to cross above this MA. In the past when this level is crossed and held it has indicated the beginning of 2-3 year trends and with the funding costs of holding USD/JPY positions so cheap this is an amazing opportunity to get in at the beginning.

What I find really great is that with the method that you guys use, it allows me to target longer term S/R levels which is something that ichimoku will not allow me to do. Great trading method CW, very exciting!!

I promise this is the last time I will mention any other trading approaches in your thread, however couldn't help myself given it has lined up so perfectly with the Clockwork method.

Cheers.
  • #8,364
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:27pm Apr 29, 2010 12:27pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Can I get some quick feedback from you guys regarding my placement on weekly SR areas and also the daily clouds of minor SR? I am thinking that the major SR I have at 23.00 probably actually extends at least up to 23.50?

Cheers,

4x.

The daily chart shows a pretty solid gap up and then pin on support. I would say you are pretty accurate with the 23-23.5 range as pretty solid S/R.
  • #8,365
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:38pm Apr 29, 2010 4:38pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Hi CW,

When you trade stocks, are you using CFDs and if so how long do you normally hold positions for?

Obviously this will be trade dependent however I find the holding costs of CFDs can be quite a bit higher than those for rolling over FX pairs/crosses on a daily basis.

Looking forward to your thoughts.

Cheers, 4x.
I live in the Socialist States of America. We are not allowed to trade CFD's. All "stock" trades are just that - stocks.

I hold depending on the set up to be honest. Time depends on the signal. For example, if I were to get a nice pinbar at a 50% retrace on the weekly chart - I want that to run as far as possible. That's true no matter if it's stocks, fx, or corn.....
  • #8,366
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:47pm Apr 29, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting Mr D.
Hey CW, Still lurking here and I have a question. The pound Dollar is trading between 1.5100 to 1.5500 during the past 4 weeks. Would you short this @ 1.5500 and consider that as a pull back or just trade up and down between the 2 points as you get candle stick signals. Also not sure if 1.5100 is a major support. more like 1.4800. I guess I'm not sure when to take the bounce and I seem to wait too long on a breakout. I need a little help and Thanks so much in advance. MR D.

I have 1.58 and 1.48 as major areas on my chart. But there is something else to be learned from your question.....

"I guess I'm not sure when to take the bounce and I seem to wait too long on a breakout."

Trading is a very personal thing. Here's a good example: mbqb11 over in the J16 thread is a good trader in my opinion. However, he has told me in the past that he is horrible at range trading, and prefers breakout trading. This is why he doesn't bother with range trading.

There is a great lesson in that. And here is my point:

If you are better, and more importantly, comfortable with shorting on rallies because it's with the trend.....well then why argue with yourself?

If you are comfortable with a trade, you have a better chance of letting your winners run, and that is what makes you profitable.

Don't fight yourself. Don't spend a lot of time in a misguided attempt to fight your nature. Instead, take time to understand your own nature, and use it to your advantage. Too much is made of "changing" behavior, when a lot of misery could be avoided by using the inevitable positives that lay within.


I quit smoking that way. I understood that trading showed me I sometimes felt the need to be in control. Once I understood that, I understood that cigarettes had control over me, and it pissed me off. I quit after 22 years in a matter of seconds when I put that pack down 2.5 years ago.

Of course, if there are destructive or negative attributes in your personality that you find - go ahead and work on it.....just don't do it with the goal of being a better trader, try being a better person.


Chris
  • #8,367
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:51pm Apr 29, 2010 4:51pm
Quoting 4xAddict
Can I get some quick feedback from you guys regarding my placement on weekly SR areas and also the daily clouds of minor SR? I am thinking that the major SR I have at 23.00 probably actually extends at least up to 23.50?

Cheers,

4x.

I would agree, and add that 20 dollar mark as a weekly one. The 22-23 is a thick zone in my opinion, just as you have it. I could trade this chart quite comfortably.
  • #8,368
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:52pm Apr 29, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting TraderDavo
The daily chart shows a pretty solid gap up and then pin on support. I would say you are pretty accurate with the 23-23.5 range as pretty solid S/R.
True....and it's a fluid area like he had marked. The part between 23-23.5 is a more recent phenomenon. However, I agree, and that gap up is pretty.
  • #8,369
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:57pm Apr 29, 2010 4:57pm
Quoting 4xAddict
[size=2]Hi All,

Just a note regarding the EUR/USD and the USD/JPY being at critical monthly S/R levels this week. Monthly candles will close on Friday and if the following occurs then we could be well on the way to major long term trend confirmations according to my ichimoku analysis (which on the longer TF's is essentially a simple S/R play)

EUR/USD is on the monthly kumo cloud base and a close below 1.3310 means that we are likely to see a long term E/U bear market.

Even more excitingly, USD/JPY is right under the monthly kumo cloud top. A...
Hey - never feel you shouldn't mention other methods. I don't even mind other mentors being mentioned. As long as it's helpful, it's relevant. My ego isn't so fragile as to be upset by a simple mention of the 21 EMA of Ichimoku. (I have to admit, I don't understand the Ichimoku method....mainly because I never really looked into it.)

If there is something that helps someone in there trading - it's a good thing.

Also, you make a good point: If you have several methods saying the same thing, that's a great signal.

I agree with the chance to get in on the bottom floor.....I think that the USD/JPY is certainly winding up to do that. I have absolutely no plans to get out for a while. I am aiming for 100-101 as my first target. That would be about 700 pips or so. I would expect a pullback there, which will only be a opportunity to buy more!

Chris
  • #8,370
  • Apr 30, 2010 1:17am Apr 30, 2010 1:17am
Nzdusd is making the move. I'm long from just above 72, if that bull flag plays out I'm looking at 82 or even higher.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,371
  • Apr 30, 2010 5:46am Apr 30, 2010 5:46am
Quoting Arfer Daily
Nzdusd is making the move. I'm long from just above 72, if that bull flag plays out I'm looking at 82 or even higher.
I have been short this pair due to monthly pinbars since December. Looks like that might be trouble. lol

My stop is still a ways up - and it's only 1%. But still. Ugh.

Sometimes, it takes forever to lose money I suppose?

Death by 1,000 paper cuts.
  • #8,372
  • Apr 30, 2010 6:34am Apr 30, 2010 6:34am
Quoting clockwork71
I have been short this pair due to monthly pinbars since December. Looks like that might be trouble. lol

My stop is still a ways up - and it's only 1%. But still. Ugh.

Sometimes, it takes forever to lose money I suppose?

Death by 1,000 paper cuts.
I can see what you mean on the monthly chart but it doesn't seem to be at one particular s/r level. The weekly definitely looks like a bear flag now and see the size of that pole! Also I suppose the fundamentals for Nzd stack up too if you're that way inclined.

I've noticed earlier in the thread you would be willing to take shorter term trades, if they looked like a winner you would take it even if it's 300 or 400 pips. These days every one of your trades is a home run trade, is that a conscious thing? I can see it makes a lot of sense to only take trades with the potential to go 1000 pips or more, certainly covers your losses.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,373
  • Apr 30, 2010 7:12am Apr 30, 2010 7:12am
Quoting Arfer Daily
I can see what you mean on the monthly chart but it doesn't seem to be at one particular s/r level. The weekly definitely looks like a bear flag now and see the size of that pole! Also I suppose the fundamentals for Nzd stack up too if you're that way inclined.

I've noticed earlier in the thread you would be willing to take shorter term trades, if they looked like a winner you would take it even if it's 300 or 400 pips. These days every one of your trades is a home run trade, is that a conscious thing? I can see it makes a lot of sense to only...

Not a conscious thing at all - just how it's lined up recently is all.
  • #8,374
  • Apr 30, 2010 7:15am Apr 30, 2010 7:15am
For the newer traders:

Keep your powder dry if you are not in any trades at the moment. There will probably be some kind of "news" out of Europe this weekend on bailing out Greece, and as such - could certainly move the EUR on the open.

Of course, if someone opts out, or raises some kind of issue - it could be a big gap down as well.

Either way, if you are not in any trades at the moment, take the day off.

Chris
  • #8,375
  • Apr 30, 2010 7:32am Apr 30, 2010 7:32am
Quoting clockwork71
For the newer traders:

Keep your powder dry if you are not in any trades at the moment. There will probably be some kind of "news" out of Europe this weekend on bailing out Greece, and as such - could certainly move the EUR on the open.

Of course, if someone opts out, or raises some kind of issue - it could be a big gap down as well.

Either way, if you are not in any trades at the moment, take the day off.

Chris
Eurgbp is taking it's time to make it's mind up too, still below that triangle though, for the moment.
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,376
  • Apr 30, 2010 8:13am Apr 30, 2010 8:13am
Quoting clockwork71
I have been short this pair due to monthly pinbars since December. Looks like that might be trouble. lol

My stop is still a ways up - and it's only 1%. But still. Ugh.

Sometimes, it takes forever to lose money I suppose?

Death by 1,000 paper cuts.

I am in the trade north with Arfer, but I intend to take my profit much sooner because of what you just described here. I plan on getting out just south of 75 and looking for reentry north near 76. I guess I took it as more of a short term trade because I am not convinced it is going to decisively break the territory between 75-76 without first consolidating for a while longer. I guess that is a long way of saying I don't think your monthly pin bar is dead quite yet . I want to see it tell me that it truly wants to move to 82 first.
  • #8,377
  • Apr 30, 2010 8:29am Apr 30, 2010 8:29am
Quoting TraderDavo
I am in the trade north with Arfer, but I intend to take my profit much sooner because of what you just described here. I plan on getting out just south of 75 and looking for reentry north near 76. I guess I took it as more of a short term trade because I am not convinced it is going to decisively break the territory between 75-76 without first consolidating for a while longer. I guess that is a long way of saying I don't think your monthly pin bar is dead quite yet . I want to see it tell me that it truly wants to move to 82 first.
Still leaves you 6-700 pips in it as well. Sounds like solid logic.

I personally am not convinced on the current upward bias of the NZD or AUD, the just feel like they are waiting for any reason to plummet back towards fair value. Not taken positions in either just yet but like you would like to see them clear the immediate resistance before putting too much in the market. Like the trade up to that level though, sure got a boot today
  • #8,378
  • Apr 30, 2010 8:41am Apr 30, 2010 8:41am
Quoting 4xAddict
Still leaves you 6-700 pips in it as well. Sounds like solid logic.

I personally am not convinced on the current upward bias of the NZD or AUD, the just feel like they are waiting for any reason to plummet back towards fair value. Not taken positions in either just yet but like you would like to see them clear the immediate resistance before putting too much in the market. Like the trade up to that level though, sure got a boot today
I was bearish on aud for a while but will watch the weekly close to show me the way. It was hard for me to lose my bias but I am learning to let the candles and levels show me the way. I also know I don't have to get in every trade, if I can find 1 good one I am set. Like e/g, I was short off a weekly pin some time back. Now, I can be honest and say that I took profit on it but I could and should have left a position on to run.

Glad you are here, these are good people and Chris is the best teacher. He teaches some advanced methods at his sight, funny thing is-another p/a teacher refused to even go into these methods on his paid website.

So many good things to learn and Chris is the only one that cares to help.

Have a great weekend!
  • #8,379
  • Apr 30, 2010 8:48am Apr 30, 2010 8:48am
Quoting TraderDavo
I am in the trade north with Arfer, but I intend to take my profit much sooner because of what you just described here. I plan on getting out just south of 75 and looking for reentry north near 76. I guess I took it as more of a short term trade because I am not convinced it is going to decisively break the territory between 75-76 without first consolidating for a while longer. I guess that is a long way of saying I don't think your monthly pin bar is dead quite yet . I want to see it tell me that it truly wants to move to 82 first.
Oh, I was looking to buy more there!
Position trader - Anything intraweek is just noise...
  • #8,380
  • Apr 30, 2010 11:17am Apr 30, 2010 11:17am
Oh oh, Goldman Sachs caught with hand in the cookie jar...some say.

Brief history of Goldman via long term chart.

They sure get in trouble alot...could this be the last time ?



Good weekend,


golfer
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