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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #222,901
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:35pm Apr 29, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting fullhouse
i can only now sit and watch and enjoy , or walk around like a beheaded chicken in my office ..im selling all jpy crosses.. except chf/jpy,,
what's your tp sl on e/j if i may ask ?

i;m hoping it will go at least till 123.4 with sl above 125
  • #222,902
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:37pm Apr 29, 2010 12:37pm
Latest polls conducted in the UK yesterday and today show the Conservative lead widening. They are now within touching distance of having an overall majority which would mean no hung parliament and thus no wrangling/disagreements on how to cut the deficit.

Markets, like what they think the Tories will give them; clarity.

Any moves in between now and next Friday in Sterling can largely be attributed to short term positioning rather than long term trades IMO.

*Reminds self to start UK election thread*
  • #222,903
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:40pm Apr 29, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting fullhouse
i can only now sit and watch and enjoy , or walk around like a beheaded chicken in my office ..im selling all jpy crosses.. except chf/jpy,,
I wish the best for you but personally the only jpy cross I would sell at this point and have sold is NZD/JPY
Without a trade plan, say bye bye to your account & hello to frustration.
  • #222,904
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:45pm Apr 29, 2010 12:45pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Latest polls conducted in the UK yesterday and today show the Conservative lead widening. They are now within touching distance of having an overall majority which would mean no hung parliament and thus no wrangling/disagreements on how to cut the deficit.

Markets, like what they think the Tories will give them; clarity.

Any moves in between now and next Friday in Sterling can largely be attributed to short term positioning rather than long term trades IMO.

*Reminds self to start UK election thread*
aha, thanks alot, that gives some clarity on PA
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #222,905
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:51pm Apr 29, 2010 12:51pm
2 Things that caught my eye today in the news are:

1. British banks might have £10 billion losses in Greece.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=234098

2. Whoever becomes the next government "might" lose the next elections for a generation due to UK debt levels and it's hugely unpopular cuts and taxes this next Government will have to do.
  • #222,906
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:56pm Apr 29, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Latest polls conducted in the UK yesterday and today show the Conservative lead widening. They are now within touching distance of having an overall majority which would mean no hung parliament and thus no wrangling/disagreements on how to cut the deficit.

Markets, like what they think the Tories will give them; clarity.

Any moves in between now and next Friday in Sterling can largely be attributed to short term positioning rather than long term trades IMO.

*Reminds self to start UK election thread*
The TimesOnline notes that the Governor of the Bank of England has issued a warning that whichever leader wins the election next week will be kicked out of power for decades because of the severity of budget cuts they will have to instigate. Our own administration would be wise to pay attention to his words as America is undoubtedly next on the austerity bandwagon.
  • #222,907
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:56pm Apr 29, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting ukdaytrader
Latest polls conducted in the UK yesterday and today show the Conservative lead widening. They are now within touching distance of having an overall majority which would mean no hung parliament and thus no wrangling/disagreements on how to cut the deficit.

Markets, like what they think the Tories will give them; clarity.

Any moves in between now and next Friday in Sterling can largely be attributed to short term positioning rather than long term trades IMO.

*Reminds self to start UK election thread*
Dont forget to remind us that you have done it...
  • #222,908
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:07pm Apr 29, 2010 1:07pm
Quoting Jake Snake
2 Things that caught my eye today in the news are:

1. British banks might have £10 billion losses in Greece.
http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=234098

2. Whoever becomes the next government "might" lose the next elections for a generation due to UK debt levels and it's hugely unpopular cuts and taxes this next Government will have to do.
By Gavin Finch
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co., the second-
biggest U.S. bank by assets, has a larger exposure than any of
its peers to Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain,
according to Wells Fargo & Co.
JPMorgan’s exposure to the five so-called PIIGS countries
is $36.3 billion, equating to 28 percent of the firm’s Tier-1
capital, a measure of financial strength, Wells Fargo analysts
including Matthew Burnell wrote today. Morgan Stanley holds
$32.4 billion of debt in the region, which equates to 69 percent
of its Tier 1 capital, Burnell wrote.
“Regulatory data suggests JPMorgan’s exposure is largest
in aggregate, but Morgan Stanley held the largest aggregate
exposure to the PIIGS relative to Tier 1 capital,” the analysts
wrote. Overall U.S. bank “exposure to Greece is lower than
exposure to Ireland, Italy and Spain.”
Bonds and stocks plunged across Europe in the past week on
concern the Greek debt crisis is spreading across the euro area.
Standard & Poor’s this week cut Greece, Portugal and Spain’s
credit ratings as concern the nations may fail to meet their
debt commitments increased.
U.S. banks held a total of $236.8 billion of exposure to
the five nations, including $18.1 billion to Greece, Wells Fargo
said. European banks have claims totaling $193.1 billion on
Greece, according to the Bank for International Settlements,
with another $832.2 billion of claims on Spain.
  • #222,909
  • Apr 29, 2010 1:20pm Apr 29, 2010 1:20pm
Quoting johny_bravo
what's your tp sl on e/j if i may ask ?

i;m hoping it will go at least till 123.4 with sl above 125
i dont watch that one very closely ,but yip im short ,,i had a quick look ,,if we get momentum tomorrow i would say 122'ish ,,but i made a small mistake,, we will see 125 before downtrend resume.. we are now on 124.70 so 30 pips still left for bulls... oh well, time for me to shut down the pc and reopen on friday close...red numbers all over here
  • #222,910
  • Edited 3:22pm Apr 29, 2010 2:26pm | Edited 3:22pm
on my charts GBPJPY is starting the u turn now.
Im holding my shorts only 4 hr chart still shows bull feeling on the MA but the rest from 4hr to 5 m to a weekly shows a bear sentiment any opinion you guys...can somebody make a comment on volume?

thanx!
  • #222,911
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:22pm Apr 29, 2010 3:22pm
Quoting kourtney
on my charts GBPJPY is starting the u turn now.
Im holding my chirts only 4 hr chart still shows bull feeling on the MA but the rest from 4 m to a weekly shows a bear sentiment any opinion you guys...can somebody make a comment on volume?

thanx!

i was short in 7 trades and i have no positions right now.closed all 7 ..
all together -18 pips loss
after UK trader mention that elections stuff for bullsh pound i got a panic attack.. and closed everything ... if it go ..ill catch the train later, but im not that positive for shorts right now ...daily close in n minute and that also look shyt for me for bearish.. it might make a U turn and ill be glad you made your pips ..ill be a railbird watching 2nite ..
  • #222,912
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:31pm Apr 29, 2010 3:31pm
Quoting fullhouse
i was short in 7 trades and i have no positions right now.closed all 7 ..
all together -18 pips loss
after UK trader mention that elections stuff for bullsh pound i got a panic attack.. and closed everything ... if it go ..ill catch the train later, but im not that positive for shorts right now ...daily close in n minute and that also look shyt for me for bearish.. it might make a U turn and ill be glad you made your pips ..ill be a railbird watching 2nite ..

oh man! well 18 pips doesnt soind so bad i just hope ur 7 trades were small ones...I hear u on the panic atacks...i have a hard time when resistances and supports seem to be broken..

I will stay short from now on.. and will post when i will take a hedge for a small correction
  • #222,913
  • Apr 29, 2010 3:48pm Apr 29, 2010 3:48pm
Quoting kourtney
oh man! well 18 pips doesnt soind so bad i just hope ur 7 trades were small ones...I hear u on the panic atacks...i have a hard time when resistances and supports seem to be broken..

I will stay short from now on.. and will post when i will take a hedge for a small correction

some were small ,some medium,some large ... jpy crosses is extremely difficult ,confusing ,frustrating at the moment,even gbp/usd / eur/usd every pair .the whole market is fck-ed ... wise words from me would be " do as little as possible"

toss a coin and choose long or short, and go with luck.
  • #222,914
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:19pm Apr 29, 2010 4:19pm
This has been my first time using the Andrew's Indicator and (at least with this trade) have been very impressed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY.jpg Size: 98 KB
  • #222,915
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:27pm Apr 29, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting SannaCBranno
This has been my first time using the Andrew's Indicator and (at least with this trade) have been very impressed.
What is the Andrew's Indicator? I haven't heard of it.
  • #222,916
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:28pm Apr 29, 2010 4:28pm
Andrew's pitchfork

Quoting Cod
What is the Andrew's Indicator? I haven't heard of it.
  • #222,917
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:32pm Apr 29, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting SannaCBranno
This has been my first time using the Andrew's Indicator and (at least with this trade) have been very impressed.
I believe Andrews pitch fork is best used with commodities. I'm pretty certain I read somewhere it fails to cope with the volatility of Forex markets.

I might be wrong, though.
  • #222,918
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:43pm Apr 29, 2010 4:43pm
Feel free to add any thoughts/whispers. etc.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...40#post3684940
  • #222,919
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:47pm Apr 29, 2010 4:47pm
I'm not sure how it does short/medium term. I began using it on the GBP/JPY @ the start of this month, placed on a monthly chart and it's corresponded well to the trend, so far. I usually use pivot points and Fib., but always like to have different spears in my arsonal-forget 'bout it

Quoting Jake Snake
I believe Andrews pitch fork is best used with commodities. I'm pretty certain I read somewhere it fails to cope with the volatility of Forex markets.

I might be wrong, though.
  • #222,920
  • Apr 29, 2010 4:58pm Apr 29, 2010 4:58pm
Quite a few things didn't feel right with the pa, so I re-did a quick check of my H1 and H4 and daily charts.

The daily still seems bullish, But, a bit more revealing is the total confusion on my H4 and H1. I've did a bit of digging out of history and the closest I've got to the indicators is a 2 week period ranging area of about 200 to 300 pips.

Strangely, the pa looks like the start of April, but the indicators were far different. Maybe it's just uncertainty in the market.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 29 April 2010 H4.jpg Size: 91 KB
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