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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #222,881
  • Apr 29, 2010 9:41am Apr 29, 2010 9:41am
i don't think e-u will retrace significantly. it looks like another bear flag.
as for g-j, no surprise. 143.75/144.45 is resistance area. a daily close above 144.45 will bring resumption of uptrend; or a weekly close below 141.87 will meet 136.
let's see.

Quoting Beljevina
Possible, but I don't think the market is feeling that way. Dips are being bought - look at the volume 2 days ago down below 142 - the JPY crosses are representing the state of the US sentiment. I know I said EURJPY was on it's way to 121, but it looks like the EU catastrophe is being bought - "we ain't got no stinkin' crisis!" Heck, they only need $800B to bail out all the hands. And don't forget the straight up 1000 pips from 134-144. UK election resolution is also driving sterling - the crash is on hold.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #222,882
  • Apr 29, 2010 10:08am Apr 29, 2010 10:08am
Quoting Scrat
i don't think e-u will retrace significantly. it looks like another bear flag.
as for g-j, no surprise. 143.75/144.45 is resistance area. a daily close above 144.45 will bring resumption of uptrend; or a weekly close below 141.87 will meet 136.
let's see.
oh man.. i cant see that gbp/usd will break much higer than 1.5320 ? so gbp/jpy will follow ? and that mean down?.. its a huge valid H&S pattern he will face in a minute at 1.5318 area ..

anything can happen,but thats why we used stops.im still selling gbp/usd big time at 1.5318 and first target is 1.4930 ,,will see after that ..

look at this BEUTY (chart) ..proof me wrong if this is not a valid H&S
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  • #222,883
  • Apr 29, 2010 10:16am Apr 29, 2010 10:16am
Quoting kourtney
I think this is the correction we expected...my tp is on longs 143.90 and from there I will remain short what do you guys think

well i think that i was a bit off.... I feel now will reach 144.25...I closed my longs at 143.90 now Im net short. this is going to be exiting
  • #222,884
  • Apr 29, 2010 10:23am Apr 29, 2010 10:23am
Well, we need to stay out for the day to continue the long tomorrow, the average daily range may not be reached, however we need to just go and rest for the day.
  • #222,885
  • Apr 29, 2010 10:45am Apr 29, 2010 10:45am
It is refreshing for me as someone who is new to forex to see your organized looking charts that show me how to improve my technicals and your fundamental commentaries that show how the market moves your technicals. I really loved that link you added for the live Bloomberg T.V. That was really awesome... So please keep up the good work, I will try to learn as much as I can from your fundamentals. I can to this forum to learn, and you are really good at teaching your views. There are others as well. But not many people have mentioned their understanding of the Wizard behind the curtain per se . I am almost finished reading the book The Secrets of Economic Indicators by Bernard Baumohl. I will use the infor from that book and one other book to attempt to program an ecomonic indicator that includes macro ecomomics. As I think that sometimes news can still be a lagging economic indicator. But then again, I am still in my cacoon growing and chaning.. Hopefully I won't turn out to be a moth... ha ha ha j/k
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #222,886
  • Apr 29, 2010 10:49am Apr 29, 2010 10:49am
Nice Chart... It looks like you got a five headed dragon that is lifting its right shoulder up as it prepares for flight. Hopefully it won't fly for long and it will come in for a landing and lay down and rest... he he he

I am new, but I read that for a head and shoulders pattern the right shoulder should be lower than the left shoulder for a strong bear pattern.

But if you have a reverse head and shoulders pattern then it could be a strong bull pattern.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #222,887
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:08am Apr 29, 2010 11:08am
Quoting Pair-me-up
It is refreshing for me as someone who is new to forex to see your organized looking charts that show me how to improve my technicals and your fundamental commentaries that show how the market moves your technicals. I really loved that link you added for the live Bloomberg T.V. That was really awesome... So please keep up the good work, I will try to learn as much as I can from your fundamentals. I can to this forum to learn, and you are really good at teaching your views. There are others as well. But not many people have mentioned their understanding...
Wow, thanks for the kudos! The beauty of the web is that there is sooo much information out there, so it becomes key to follow the best sources to get a feel for market sentiment (ie., Bloomberg TV - fantastic picture on the new platform) and other credible informational sources. I'm not that well versed a technical trader yet, but I can say that complicating it and layering in all the factors you can find, will leave you with analysis paralysis. That's where other's skills come in to read divergence, VWAP, and over time you learn to read PA and accumulate screen time, which is one of the most important ways to learn IMHO. GL to us all!
  • #222,888
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:12am Apr 29, 2010 11:12am
Quoting Pair-me-up
Nice Chart... It looks like you got a five headed dragon that is lifting its right shoulder up as it prepares for flight. Hopefully it won't fly for long and it will come in for a landing and lay down and rest... he he he

I am new, but I read that for a head and shoulders pattern the right shoulder should be lower than the left shoulder for a strong bear pattern.

But if you have a reverse head and shoulders pattern then it could be a strong bull pattern.

maybe the tchnology change a bit for lower right etc... i dont know about that... ive learn about patterns years ago ,so dont know about the new technology.. i still trade the old way ..hopefully it still work out ..

yip and im short right now,aqnd its runnign awaaay ..
  • #222,889
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:19am Apr 29, 2010 11:19am
Quoting JhonMonsalve
What about if the fast down move from yesterday was the correction expected?
Quoting JhonMonsalve
I'm thinking in long because Yen weakness, I don't know, one of the most accurate market meter is the Yen, as simple as that, I think Dragon follow most of the times the Yen behavior, so, if I see weakness in Yen, my take is going with that, no more no less, I'm waiting for monthly candle close too, to follow Ariadne's thread!

Let's see how it plays!
Well, PA is interesting now, let's see what happens around this levels...
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #222,890
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:23am Apr 29, 2010 11:23am
G/U
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  • #222,891
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:25am Apr 29, 2010 11:25am
GU already broke 1.5320.. @@

Ok what I see here is GU and GJ both met a important resistance here.

GJ - resistance at 144.50
GU - resistance at 1.5330

If GU going down here, GJ will follow. Lets see..
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #222,892
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:30am Apr 29, 2010 11:30am
Quoting Kofmaster
GU already broke 1.5320.. @@
lol im not a scalper who use 10 pip stop loss and target 15 pips ..but yes 1.5320 is gone and went only 30 pips above ... spikes happen everywhere all over.. as long as we stay below the top im ok ..and if not ..take the loss,,smile and get over it and move on to the next one...
  • #222,893
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:32am Apr 29, 2010 11:32am
Sifting through which currency is strongest and weakest during sessions, beginning with the Asian, but mostly London & then carrying to NY is an excellent way to cement where you should be positioned. Ashraf Laidi's book covers this, although I've not worked through it yet.

I can't recall the last time the indicator had this type of a strength-weakness gap between sterling & yen.

On the current PA, we're definitely getting toppy here - might see a stretch for 144.44, and hopefully there's some pips in retracing down to about 143.9. I would short carefully from here ... again (me, the broken record) recall the 1000 pips from 134-144, or is it 1300 pips from 131. Tommorrow will round things out for us - either they will slam it down for us on the last day of the month, or continue with the current head-in-the-sand procedure, and get GY to 145.7/8 - any more gaffes from Gordon Brown, & we're definitely getting there.
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  • #222,894
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:36am Apr 29, 2010 11:36am
Quoting Scrat
i don't think e-u will retrace significantly. it looks like another bear flag.
as for g-j, no surprise. 143.75/144.45 is resistance area. a daily close above 144.45 will bring resumption of uptrend; or a weekly close below 141.87 will meet 136.
let's see.
yes.. based on pure speculations... GBP and USD

or.. Re-position...

======================================
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- The British pound strengthened as
investors speculated the nation will be able to rein in its
budget deficit even if voters fail to elect a government with a
majority in Parliament.
Sterling gained most against the Japanese yen and rose
against the dollar for the first time in three days. A poll in
the Sun newspaper showed Conservative Party support at 34
percent, the Liberal Democrats on 31 percent and the ruling
Labour Party on 27 percent, indicating the smaller Liberal
Democrats might hold the balance of power after the May 6 vote
===============================================
  • #222,895
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:36am Apr 29, 2010 11:36am
Quoting fullhouse
lol im not a scalper who use 10 pip stop loss and target 15 pips ..but yes 1.5320 is gone and went only 30 pips above ... spikes happen everywhere all over.. as long as we stay below the top im ok ..and if not ..take the loss,,smile and get over it and move on to the next one...
well said.
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #222,896
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:38am Apr 29, 2010 11:38am
Beljevina, where did you get that EA that shows the strength and average daily range at the same time. give me the link.

Quoting Beljevina
Sifting through which currency is strongest and weakest during sessions, beginning with the Asian, but mostly London & then carrying to NY is an excellent way to cement where you should be positioned. Ashraf Laidi's book covers this, although I've not worked through it yet.
  • #222,897
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:39am Apr 29, 2010 11:39am
Quoting Beljevina
Sifting through which currency is strongest and weakest during sessions, beginning with the Asian, but mostly London & then carrying to NY is an excellent way to cement where you should be positioned. Ashraf Laidi's book covers this, although I've not worked through it yet.

I can't recall the last time the indicator had this type of a strength-weakness gap between sterling & yen.

On the current PA, we're definitely getting toppy here - might see a stretch for 144.44, and hopefully there's some pips in retracing down to about 143.9. I would short...
i will agree fully,,2morrow will be the judgement day for sure ... "if we stay at these high levels then there is def more to come... otherwise gbp/jpy should drop 300 to 400 pips until close day .... one of 2 things will happen ..or we stay at these high levels and nothing happen, or we drop 300 to 400 ,,we wont break the top this week ,,but if we stay around 143/144 all day 2morrow,,then higher we go next week ... until then..lets sit and watch and look for any signs to sell
  • #222,898
  • Apr 29, 2010 11:51am Apr 29, 2010 11:51am
Quoting uncletrumpet
Beljevina, where did you get that EA that shows the strength and average daily range at the same time. give me the link.
I found the one I posted in my web travels - if you google "1000 pips dashboard" you may find it. Here's another very similar public domain one with more info, which you can find by googling "! IN10TION NewsReader v09.99a lite.ex4" (am including a side-by-side snapshot of each to demonstrate the currency strength values are very close.
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  • #222,899
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:01pm Apr 29, 2010 12:01pm
technical speaking gbp/jpy should go to the 161.8 FE at 136.60 or lets be reanoable the 100 FE at 139.30 atleast .. and then there is also the 261 FE at 132 for a double bottom ...wich one ?
  • #222,900
  • Apr 29, 2010 12:17pm Apr 29, 2010 12:17pm
i can only now sit and watch and enjoy , or walk around like a beheaded chicken in my office ..im selling all jpy crosses.. except chf/jpy,,
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