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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #222,821
  • Edited 2:37pm Apr 28, 2010 2:03pm | Edited 2:37pm
Quoting Cod
ltl says 139.60

I am starting to doubt this...bull seems so determined. Looking like we are going back to 145

143.6 is the last crucial resistance . IMO if it doesnt hold the 4 hour upswing may reach 145-146 again.

Daily has to close below 141.6 for bears to reach lower..we havent closed below it for more than 2 weeks..we can ignore last week's opening gap...that was a fluke
  • #222,822
  • Apr 28, 2010 2:06pm Apr 28, 2010 2:06pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
What about if the fast down move from yesterday was the correction expected?
at least in my experience with corrections there is no consolidation previous to a correction...usually starts a few hours later after reaching bottom or top.

another factor is if this were a correction of an uptrend as you may be asking well then we have several previous corrections that were caped at the same resistance levels.

so NO it is now the correction of an uptrend is a trampolin. Sank yesterday now is flying and maybe tomorrow will go down missing the trampoling and slaming at the 133 -128 floor

we need to be patient for now we may reach 144.25 to 145 I think before we retake shorts
  • #222,823
  • Apr 28, 2010 2:31pm Apr 28, 2010 2:31pm
Quoting Myrza
I am starting to doubt this...bull seems so determined. Looking like we are going back to 145
Probably why scrat is out flat right now.
  • #222,824
  • Apr 28, 2010 2:31pm Apr 28, 2010 2:31pm
For an Ichimoku trader, this is still considered a Bullish trade on the Daily TF
  • #222,825
  • Apr 28, 2010 3:45pm Apr 28, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting Scrat
hm. maybe i'm not getting it right, but unless i see u-j closing today below 93.95 / or going below 92.98, i can't have a bearish bias...

g-u is right at support. g-j bounced off support, and has a little bit more to upside resistance... so i don't see a selling spree just yet. might be wrong though...
I do agree with your numbers, and I'll have to be more precise in my wording that it was just a bearish bias for this afternoon's NY (equity) session. It was more of a fundamental assessment based on the terrible news of Spain's downgrade, and folks like the EU FM citing "Greece will need 3x more $$$" than we expected. (On that, I'd expect Europe markets, fx session trading to still react tomorrow).

I didn't properly factor in the fed pre-announce optimism, and hence the strongly habitual (equity) & other markets rallied prior to the announcement took things up. Interestingly, the rally has not held, and although the S&P500 did make a bit of a recovery today (click for chart), it still did sell off towards the end of the day. I think we're going to see more bearishness here, possibly as late as Friday.

Here's 2 pre and post fed announcement trade ideas. NY pushed up ahead of the Fed Rate decision/text - that's pretty much the normal reaction - this on it's own presents good opportunity for a very short term trade, and has worked with most of the Fed rate announcements over the last year, but is a high risk trade. This push up ahead of the news is a trade where you bind yourself to exit, a few minutes prior to the news - you can often get 10-40 pips. You of course give up any upside benefit here by exiting, but also downside risk.

Did also want to do a quick thingy on the power of the trendline for any newer members - I find TLs fairly dependable for GBPJPY, and today it was good for a quick long for today's post fed rate announcement. It's a matter of picking the right lows of the last 1 or 2 sessions (assuming that's a trend), and placing the TL on them. While it's difficult to know the exact points to connect, over time the strategy can be learned. It is a high risk trade, but a minimum 2:1 is reasonable I feel. Or, you can judge the PA's proximity to the TL and do it manually. I was able to get a 40 pip benefit, because I was playing it safe, and still had my bearish bias; patience would have easily resulted in 50 pips, or the max 70. Check the chart for the 2 lower points connected, and notice how exactly the pre-news swing down was. (green circle - that M5 bar was just getting built as the news came out) Note again, this is a high risk trade, and you should be prepared for it to not always work out. But, if you follow the right web sources on what the Feds are (very) likely to do, you can minimize the risk. BTW, Canada is expected to raise the rate in June - be assured this is done with the knowledge of the US, and signals a upcoming US increase.

Other item of note is that the dip was bought - that becomes clear after the M5 bar is closed, and there was 30-40 pip potential there, or, worst case scenario, BE. Hope all's gone well for everyone.
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  • #222,826
  • Apr 28, 2010 3:53pm Apr 28, 2010 3:53pm
If you're one who watches Bloomberg on the web, it looks like they're getting ready to launch a new web presence - I got sent to the URL one day on a new computer (non-cookied for Bloomberg I guess).

Their previous media player link on the web ran through Windows Media Player, and allowed for automatic bit rate decreases, and becasue of that & other reasons performance has been worsening over the last few weeks I've found. The new link uses a loadable player, and the resolution & audio quality is fantastic!!! Check it out here, and profit: http://preview.bloomberg.com/tv/
  • #222,827
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:16pm Apr 28, 2010 4:16pm
Quoting Scrat
hm. maybe i'm not getting it right, but unless i see u-j closing today below 93.95 / or going below 92.98, i can't have a bearish bias...

g-u is right at support. g-j bounced off support, and has a little bit more to upside resistance... so i don't see a selling spree just yet. might be wrong though...

you are not alone, i also dont get that one right...we had a bad daily close according to my view ,and something dont add up for me for that break lower... we might be wrong ,but stay with you on the sideline again,until we see a better clear view for the next trend...

but look at this chart..the gbp/usd

a perfect H&S with the right shoulder and left shoulder at same height as the SUPP/RES level and its untested @1.5318..

my prev H&S from last nite change now and this might be a better one,,but stil both can be seen as one...

ill rather short this one and see what gbp/jpy plan is ... 146.60 is still up there ..aaggh i dont know ..lets see
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  • #222,828
  • Apr 28, 2010 4:46pm Apr 28, 2010 4:46pm
here os one pattern of eur/jpy that might scared some bear lovers in gbp/jpy aswell myself and that we might stand on hold for that drop..we will see lower levels still,but its LIMITED i think and broadly sideways for days/weeks ..

look at this pattern, the eur/jpy decsending wedge short term trend reversal & divergance on 4 hour.. if you ask me this pattern target 131
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  • #222,829
  • Apr 28, 2010 5:48pm Apr 28, 2010 5:48pm
Anyone else see that R1 and Fib 0.500 @ 143.762 are at the exact same level?

I've seen it very close before, but not THIS close! Might be some significance....or not.
  • #222,830
  • Apr 28, 2010 6:38pm Apr 28, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting fullhouse
here os one pattern of eur/jpy that might scared some bear lovers in gbp/jpy aswell myself and that we might stand on hold for that drop..we will see lower levels still,but its LIMITED i think and broadly sideways for days/weeks ..

look at this pattern, the eur/jpy decsending wedge short term trend reversal & divergance on 4 hour.. if you ask me this pattern target 131
Here's the same chart, but because I'm big on TLs, I've had them plotted for some time (see anchor points) - they're definitely valid, and map back to your wedge pattern, but I'm reading the wedge as having farther drop/decline potential, with the threat of breaking to the downside.

Why? I get the sense the pattern potential was valid up until the first week of April - I'm seeing lots of volume buying on the dip during that timeframe, as was the case with the yen crosses everywhere. The week after and this current week, appears to be one of broader selling as the highs are hit. With a EURUSD mid-term target of sub 1.3, 1.28 and a yearly target of even lower (1st 2 targets are from analysts & me, a sub 1.25 & lower target is mine), I think we're on our way. This is afterall, the euro we're talking about - if one is bearish on EURUSD, there will be damage to the EUR pairs. My take is that 121 could be seen in the next 2-3 weeks, which will imply a lower TL break, a quick test, and further possible declines.

And, wasn't it you, err, zweig, that was calling for 118 in EURJPY back in December?
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  • #222,831
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:24pm Apr 28, 2010 7:24pm
Quoting kourtney
at least in my experience with corrections there is no consolidation previous to a correction...usually starts a few hours later after reaching bottom or top.

another factor is if this were a correction of an uptrend as you may be asking well then we have several previous corrections that were caped at the same resistance levels.

so NO it is now the correction of an uptrend is a trampolin. Sank yesterday now is flying and maybe tomorrow will go down missing the trampoling and slaming at the 133 -128 floor

we need to be patient for now...
I'm thinking in long because Yen weakness, I don't know, one of the most accurate market meter is the Yen, as simple as that, I think Dragon follow most of the times the Yen behavior, so, if I see weakness in Yen, my take is going with that, no more no less, I'm waiting for monthly candle close too, to follow Ariadne's thread!

Let's see how it plays!
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
  • #222,832
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:54pm Apr 28, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting Beljevina
Here's the same chart, but because I'm big on TLs, I've had them plotted for some time (see anchor points) - they're definitely valid, and map back to your wedge pattern, but I'm reading the wedge as having farther drop/decline potential, with the threat of breaking to the downside.

Why? I get the sense the pattern potential was valid up until the first week of April - I'm seeing lots of volume buying on the dip during that timeframe, as was the case with the yen crosses everywhere. The week after and this current week, appears to be one of broader...

hey bel.. THE CROSSES is mixd all over .. i dont know if its better to put the swing style on hold and scalp here and there until everything calm down ? especially eur pairs... im not touching that pair,and i loved the eur/jpy actually more than the gbp/jpy ,but havent trade it in a verrry long time...

yes it was me who say 118 and gbp/jpy 135 then spike down to 130 and then a sideways movement for very long ... i can see the jpy crosses will stay sideways for weeks... i cant see that we will get a swing entry on any cross during the coming weeks ... daytrading is better and ill stick with that until we spot a trend and go with that ...

the best bet for me tomorrow is a sell on gbp/usd at 1.5318 ,and stay on the sideline on jpy pairs ..
eur/usd can drop to 1.25 and usd/jpy can even get as high as 100 ... so lets see what happen

overall i still see a test of 130 on gbp/jpy but later Q2/Q3 ,,not now

gd luck !
  • #222,833
  • Apr 28, 2010 7:56pm Apr 28, 2010 7:56pm
G/U

ab=cd equal in time & length
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  • #222,834
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:14pm Apr 28, 2010 8:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
G/U

ab=cd equal in time & length

hey do you see the H&S pattern ? full screen on 1 hour ?
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  • #222,835
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:33pm Apr 28, 2010 8:33pm
Quoting JhonMonsalve
I'm thinking in long because Yen weakness, I don't know, one of the most accurate market meter is the Yen, as simple as that, I think Dragon follow most of the times the Yen behavior, so, if I see weakness in Yen, my take is going with that, no more no less, I'm waiting for monthly candle close too, to follow Ariadne's thread!

Let's see how it plays!

jon..you might be right ,but i see it as ranging on higher TF ..roughly a mess sideways ,until USD/JPY topped out .. it will be a tough time for us to spot a trend .. one week up ,next week 100% down.. confused ,if you ask me ...
  • #222,836
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:39pm Apr 28, 2010 8:39pm
Gm guys

so am just back and how is GY going on..143.30 done?
  • #222,837
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:41pm Apr 28, 2010 8:41pm
Quoting fullhouse
hey do you see the H&S pattern ? full screen on 1 hour ?
where is your right shoulder then? my target is 1.5300

btw, people see different things on the screen, to me it's not a H & Sh
  • #222,838
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:48pm Apr 28, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting grashid
Gm guys

so am just back and how is GY going on..143.30 done?
Hopefully... Anyway the syndrome is the same with last week

Whats wrong with geppy lately, Anyone?
row row row your boat
  • #222,839
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:49pm Apr 28, 2010 8:49pm
[quote=Beljevina;3677587]Success solely depends on how accurately your can enter in the right direction, and, doing so consistently, is almost impossible for one starting out. A really good beginner might make the $500 last 4 weeks, but an average trader, can kiss the $500 goodbye in 2 weeks, ...

Thanks, appreciate your comments, will take to heart your risk recommendation and will endeavor to prove you wrong on the part of necessarily having to blow one's first account.
  • #222,840
  • Apr 28, 2010 8:54pm Apr 28, 2010 8:54pm
Nice deconstruction of the yen crosses during the (holiday) Asian session. GJ's done about 70 pips, and I'm expecting another 25 or so, to get it to a minimum bottom of 142.0; interesting in that it undoes all the NY gains, and I suspect early (or by) London it will see yesterday's former bottom of 141.7. Where from there, don't know - depends how London reacts to the EUR news. UJ looks like it's going to kiss the DPP somewhere around 93.7, with a chance to visit 93.36, and more major support @ 93.25.
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