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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,681
  • Edited 12:40pm Apr 27, 2010 12:24pm | Edited 12:40pm
Quoting auxesis
Mark,...
Phew...

thank aux, I get a sense you are very systematic in your thought process. thanks for sharing.

Anybody riding it back up ?

long position squared @ 123.70. (was playing EJ all day long. Best day for april...happy)
  • #14,682
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:08pm Apr 27, 2010 1:08pm
Missed all the fun beneath 1,33. Man, I hate the fact that I still need this full time job! The greed scorpion crying out loud
With Greece now in the junk sector and Portugal following closely Italy is now biting its nails to blood. The only people getting dividends are German politics with their elections just round the corner and the their exports boosted by the cheep EUR.
New set of momentum building down on the E$ intraday curve?
  • #14,683
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:19pm Apr 27, 2010 1:19pm
Setobos, nothing is clear at all man, EU is still probably a little better than the US...at least the economist say so.

However longer term wise, this episode in the EU will be a very good reference point when similar problems arise again. Def something I am keeping in my record books.
  • #14,684
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:32pm Apr 27, 2010 1:32pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Setobos, nothing is clear at all man, EU is still probably a little better than the US...at least the economist say so.

However longer term wise, this episode in the EU will be a very good reference point when similar problems arise again. Def something I am keeping in my record books.
Yeah, I know what you mean, but when hype gains such a momentum no one gives a sh*t about what's economically relevant. The simplest examples of all - California (world's 7th economy should it be considered separately from the US) has been broke for quite some time now, but look at the markets - the Dow (should be "the Down"today ) and the S&P kept marching up and everyone's going crazy on two other fronts - the EU debt crisis and the negative carry on the YEN.
Nothing's going to matter as long as the printing press keeps the stimulus going with the ZIRP in place. I wonder when's FED going to tighten the belt on the dollar. That massive debt will need to be paid and paying it with the current massively expensive dollar won't be the best idea of all...

Edit: gotta go back to the office now, will come by later on
  • #14,685
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:34pm Apr 27, 2010 1:34pm
Is there anyone really good with stats so he can help me.
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  • #14,686
  • Edited 2:05pm Apr 27, 2010 1:43pm | Edited 2:05pm
Quoting GEfx
OK, the Euro has been hit hard by news on Portugal debt rating, which has now joined Greece as junk. Hope you all got some of that gift from the rating agencies. My trading station was a little crazy but I finally got an order in (fti, I remember your posts from last week and this really got me mad there for a minute, these brokers. Their quotes were about 20 seconds behind my charts).

Wonder which nation is next (maybe US -- LOL). Just be thankful you are not a Goldman exec today -- yikes!

Trade well everyone.
Hi GEfx

I use the emergency chart of Dukascopy website and phone contact to broker.Maybe help.

http://www.dukascopy.com/ (forex data & tools detach window)

Regards
  • #14,687
  • Apr 27, 2010 1:43pm Apr 27, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting Setebos
Yeah, I know what you mean, but when hype gains such a momentum no one gives a sh*t about what's economically relevant. The simplest examples of all - California (world's 7th economy should it be considered separately from the US) has been broke for quite some time now, but look at the markets - the Dow (should be "the Down"today ) and the S&P kept marching up and everyone's going crazy on two other fronts - the EU debt crisis and the negative carry on the YEN.
Nothing's going to matter as long as the printing press keeps the stimulus going...
yup, however such fundamental shifts takes a really long time to realize, I am however optimistic about US's future. Quoting Buffett "you cannot bet against US and win"...heard it on youtube sometime back.

Have a good day setobos


mijamoto, you should post it elsewhere where it is more visible, I am very sure there are someone who knows how to do it. Try the member's lounge, rookie or even start a new thread.
  • #14,688
  • Edited 2:18pm Apr 27, 2010 1:58pm | Edited 2:18pm
Quoting Gro
Hi Fana

"talent is Trend and work is Thickening"

"spiral from the perspective from above the circle but needs support in order to winding".
... and "management of small units is the same as driving a large units".

PS Fana, beware the illusion of "understanding" and illusion of "control" ... timesreen,timesreen ... and timesreen!!!
  • #14,689
  • Apr 27, 2010 4:16pm Apr 27, 2010 4:16pm
Quoting Gro
Hi GEfx

I use the emergency chart of Dukascopy website and phone contact to broker.Maybe help.

http://www.dukascopy.com/ (forex data & tools detach window)

Regards
Thanks!
  • #14,690
  • Apr 27, 2010 4:28pm Apr 27, 2010 4:28pm
Wow, what a long day. Still may not be over when Tokyo opens later. I will look for a retrace on the E/$ or E/Y and looking for a good place to continue the short. I will need to look a bit at where this thing might be going, and oversold may be the answer for the short term. The euro is on the ropes now and there is no reason to let up until they step up to their problems. Just my quess now, but the long term impact on the euro may be very serious. Talk here is of an EU that can not handle a growing crisis, without IMF help (and don't forget they could not handle the Balkins in the 1990's which just adds to the image), which eliminates any consideration of the euro becoming a reserve currency. Would guess we're headed back to the upper 1.20's for a while.
  • #14,691
  • Edited 4:50pm Apr 27, 2010 4:40pm | Edited 4:50pm
Quoting auxesis
Pete,...
Just want to say thanks to Auxesis for the his time to post the charts and further discussion. Post #59 by fti contains is pure gold as unadulterated as the real stuff. Pure gold!

I havent read through the entire thread but here is an article that discusses dealer activity too... Sorry if its been shared already!

http://www.sfomag.com/ArticlePrint.aspx?ID=598

Some tidbits

"Why do most traders lose money even when they follow all the proper rules? – Because markets rarely offer a smooth trend. Instead, they usually thrust and retrace frequently, spooking traders out of what eventually turn out to be profitable positions. As a result, traders are beaten by maddening runs of constant stop outs. According to famous trading coach David Landry, a series of small stops often can add up to be bigger a loss than a large stop."

"And on the opposite side of most of retail transactions are professional traders known as dealers. One of the main reasons prices tend to back and fill in almost all financial instruments is because when customers are buying, dealers are selling and vice versa. Dealers make their profits from the small retraces in price by quickly unloading their newly acquired inventory. "

"Unlike regular retail traders, dealers usually follow two maxims: Always be fading, and never trust the first price. The fact that dealers usually are on the opposite side of price action really should come as no surprise when one realizes that 80 percent of the time markets are range-bound – and, therefore, retrace the original move. "

"Successful market makers have controlled the ego-based need to be absolutely correct. Because markets are constantly in motion, it is almost impossible to be exactly right on (in your entries).” Such a probative approach to the markets is at the heart of most successful professional trading. Dealers know full well that their first foray into the trade is often wrong. They rarely commit the full position amount on the first try."

"One of the key differences between professionals and amateurs is that professionals scale into trades while amateurs average down. This statement may seem like clever wordplay, but it’s not. Let’s assume that both the professional and the amateur decide to risk two percent of their capital account on a particular trade. The professional knows full well that he will not be able to hit the exact entry point on his first attempt. Therefore, he may allocate only 0.3% of his capital to the first entry, 0.6% on the second and 1.2% to the third – and stop himself out at -2.7% away from original entry price (-2% risk).

On the other hand, the amateur will plow in with a full two-percent position, and then when the trade goes against him, he may decide to “double down again” and then average in yet a third time. At this point, the amateur has committed six percent of his capital to the trade, and if the trade continues to move against him, he will throw in his towel with a massive -12% loss (sum of -6%,-4% and -2% losses). Five disasters like that and the amateur loses 60 percent of his account. In a zero-sum game, he has just moved much closer to zero."


"This example serves to illustrate one of the greatest pieces of trading advice ever given. When asked by Jack Schwager what is the one act most traders must do to become successful, Bruce Kovner – perhaps the greatest hedge fund manager ever and a man who has beaten the markets for more than 30 years and to whom other hedge fund managers entrust their savings – simply said,” Undertrade, undertrade, undertrade.” Prodded further by Schwager, he explained, “Whatever you think your position ought to be, cut it at least in half. My experience with novice traders is that they trade three to five times too big. They are taking five- to ten-percent risks on a trade when they should be risking one- to two-percent.”"
  • #14,692
  • Edited 6:02pm Apr 27, 2010 5:39pm | Edited 6:02pm
Quoting GEfx
Happy trading day to everyone -- am short the E/$ at 1.3359 and will trade the pulses down as long as they last.

Fana, not sure what to say to you now. Perhaps something later after trading.

Trade well everyone!

Edit: square at 1.3319 and waiting for pull back for re entry possible

I got out my short positions( I opened them just above 1.3350) at almost the same level (1.3318 to be precise) and Setebos also, what a coincidence... hahah Do we use the same crystall ball
Greek bonds = junk... Portugal seems to be on the same path. Let's see what happens next. I guess CBs will have to intervene to save EUR, but how would I know they are inntervening and how would I capitalize on that
  • #14,693
  • Apr 27, 2010 6:04pm Apr 27, 2010 6:04pm
Quoting auxesis
While I do not condone Paulson's activities at GS, it's obvious that the panel of Senators probing GS have no clue as to what they are asking.
Senators -- they love to hear themselves talk.

One thing that the GS people talked about that really struck me is their awareness of risk and their intent/ability to manage risk. These guys are the professional's professional trader, and it (risk) is something everyone in the forex should be thinking about all the time.
  • #14,694
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:50pm Apr 27, 2010 7:50pm
I'm find it interesting (and a bit nervous) lately that the movement away from the euro has had a positive effect on Gold prices, not surprised but previously dollar strength was negative gold but the correlation has broken. May not be a good sign of things to come.
  • #14,695
  • Apr 27, 2010 8:01pm Apr 27, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Setobos, nothing is clear at all man, EU is still probably a little better than the US...at least the economist say so.

However longer term wise, this episode in the EU will be a very good reference point when similar problems arise again. Def something I am keeping in my record books.
Actually guys, I don't quite agree to this statement.
Yeah, while we can argue the US is bankrupt etc, but well, technically, so is Japan with debt : GDP forecast is about 197%.

It's about perceived growth.
US manufacturing & services numbers are picking up, NFP has been dipping consistently (rate of +ve increase turning up), and unemployment has been dipping.
The EU on the other hand is obviously not fairing as well.
The economics are certainly not as good as the US.

Which economist said EU > US right now?
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,696
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:20pm Apr 27, 2010 9:20pm
Quoting auxesis
Pete,...
Thanks Auxesis,

That was great with charts Thanks for your time I can see clearly now.

Best regards,
  • #14,697
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:32pm Apr 27, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting Deusomega
Just want to say thanks to Auxesis for the his time to post the charts and further discussion. Post #59 by fti contains is pure gold as unadulterated as the real stuff. Pure gold!

I havent read through the entire thread but here is an article that discusses dealer activity too... Sorry if its been shared already!

http://www.sfomag.com/ArticlePrint.aspx?ID=598

Some tidbits

"Why do most traders lose money even when they follow all the proper rules? – Because markets rarely offer a smooth trend. Instead, they usually thrust and retrace...
Thanks Deusomega That was great dicussion

Regards,
  • #14,698
  • Apr 27, 2010 10:46pm Apr 27, 2010 10:46pm
Quoting auxesis
I'm find it interesting (and a bit nervous) lately that the movement away from the euro has had a positive effect on Gold prices, not surprised but previously dollar strength was negative gold but the correlation has broken. May not be a good sign of things to come.

Well missed the oil too.... oil and dollar are not agreeign anymore...infact check Dollar vs Indian rupess.. VS euro u will get amaze with result...


V
  • #14,699
  • Edited 11:25pm Apr 27, 2010 11:09pm | Edited 11:25pm
scaled back and looking for a place to square up, in @ 3250 near monthly lows area of interest 3227 interest.
note taken @ e/u 3217.

trying to keep track of the daily trend looking at wed daily chart.
the way monday moved down, sure seems like thats the way she wants to move
3382
3245 bias is down from
3105

for your viwing pleasure the housing bubble continues.
http://goldsilver.com/newsletters/newsID/7944/ref/1/
  • #14,700
  • Apr 28, 2010 12:23am Apr 28, 2010 12:23am
Quoting Cyrus
Actually guys, I don't quite agree to this statement.
Yeah, while we can argue the US is bankrupt etc, but well, technically, so is Japan with debt : GDP forecast is about 197%.

It's about perceived growth.
US manufacturing & services numbers are picking up, NFP has been dipping consistently (rate of +ve increase turning up), and unemployment has been dipping.
The EU on the other hand is obviously not fairing as well.
The economics are certainly not as good as the US.

Which economist said EU > US right now?
Schiff in one of his videos blogs. But anyway I am not going to argue that. Like I said earlier I am more interested in how this saga unfolds in the young EU as problems will arise again in the future.
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