The long term trader using fundamental Analysis (In B4 Clive)

I'll be trading weekly charts using 80% Fundamental analysis and 20% Technical analysis. I'll post my trades here and their results when I close them. Of course trades will be posted when I open them.

23rd April 2010 (Friday)

Short Euro/AUD 1.4427
Short Euro/CAD 1.3277
Short GBP/JPY 143..42
Long CAD/JPY 93.56
Short USD/MXN 12.2001
Long XAU/USD 1140.60

Tip of the day:

1-When you lose X number of pips on a trade and you want to make them back ,try to make same X number of pips back ,don't increase the lot size. Because if you can't make X pips back ,then you are a bad trader and FX is not for you. Its number of pips that matter.

2-In order to have pateince for ur trade to hit TP and not close it , treat it as a losing trade ,always expect SL to be hit and always be comfortable with the losing odds. Professional traders are comfortable with the loss ,amateurs are eager for the win.

3-The best way to trade is not to trade at all.

Thank you and will update these trades later.

I am very relaxed watching small retail traders selling the CAD and the AUD. The two countries have very strong economy to the degree that both will increase the interest rates. On the long term these two currencies are going to be stronger than now.

So far I am +ve on the CAD/JPY XAU/USD USD/MXN and -ve on the E/AUD and E/CAD and GBY/JPY. I am expecting big falling of the E/CAD and E/AUD soon. But the GBP/JPY may take some time.

Longed AUD/JPY 87.08
Longed XAG/USD 18.26

[quote=Brb-Fraudin;3665236]I'll be trading weekly charts using 80% Fundamental analysis and 20% Technical analysis. I'll post my trades here and their results when I close them. Of course trades will be posted when I open them.

23rd April 2010 (Friday)

Short Euro/AUD 1.4427
Short Euro/CAD 1.3277
Short GBP/JPY 143..42
Long CAD/JPY 93.56
Short USD/MXN 12.2001
Long XAU/USD 1140.60


Hello Brb, why you think gbpjpy will go down? daily, weekly, monthly all seem to be pointing up. Not questioning you, as I don't have much experience. just curious.

ًWelcome oliverpip

So far I am

+1530 on Silver (153 pips by our language )
+51 on CAD/JPY
+184 US/MXN (18 pips)
+4 Aud/jpy Just opened it
-5 gold
-10 EU/AUD
-92 EU/CAD
-122 GBP/JPY The bad apple

Total P/L -0.97 pip (less than 1 pip), low drawdown for 8 trades IMO and I could be +122 in 1 day w/o the GBP/JPY

Yesterday before I posted this journal I closed a +70 profit trades. I took my decision about GBY/JPY looking at weekly charts and daily charts and bad GBY GDP numbers and another FA analysis (not all mine). I totally believe that by the end of next week I'll be in wayyy +pips when the EU pairs go back to their downtrend. Thank you very much for posting and I'll keep u updated with all honest numbers.

I want to say my opinion on Technical Analysis. I have been trading FX for 2 unsuccessful years. I tried expert advisors , indicators ,S/R trading ,martingale and hedging,I read many books , I had managed account, I read J16 thread..etc, I tried everything and I came to this conclusion:

Technical Analysis is nothing but to analyze patterns created by traders. Emotional cycle of fear and greed. The founders of TA were actually stock traders , where price of the stock is changed by traders. Traders can see the S/R levels and there is emotions near these levels. So TA works really well on stock markets. On FX , the story is different. On london , Asia,And NY hours , the retail traders can actually move the price ,so TA can work on M15 during market hours and smaller time frames. But on large TF the price cant be moved by traders. Economy of countries and large banks move the price. A strong currency will laugh at your resistance lines. When officials speak , the price will penetrate your Fibonnaci levels like a knife through butter and never look back. I once saw Igork , the famous trader here that I read his book, analyzing the E/U on monthly charts!? So how can you be sure Igork ? Did u expect the Greek crisis? What if terrorists hit the English Perliment? What if BMW and Mercedes had a crisis?? How can you be sure what happens in the next 3 years!!??

Ever happend you saw a trader ask on a forum " Whats going on the CAD!!" and another trader says oh , bad CPI numbers just released. So what happened? WHy r u just watching the price changing due to news and you are saying you don't trade news?? Trading news is the most profitable thing on FX , but the broker won't allow you to do it ,and thats why I CAN'T trade news. I want but it is not possible. So in conclusion , yes TA works. But in small Time frames during market open , and you have to look very closely to news because it can ruin ur trade. See you next week brahs.

[quote=Brb-Fraudin;3667482]Thank you for posting oliverpip

So far I am

+1530 on Silver (153 pips by our language )
+51 on CAD/JPY
+184 US/MXN (18 pips)
+4 Aud/jpy Just opened it
-5 gold
-10 EU/AUD
-92 EU/CAD
-122 GBP/JPY The bad apple


Good Luck with the trades. personally, I think gbpjpy going up.
Have a good weekend and we'll see what the next couple of weeks bring .

Very possible Oliver , but I want you to look what happend at last 10 August and 20 January 2010. Huge drop of GBP/JPY , and thats what I am expecting. But again , I can't predict 8 trades right and you maybe right. See you next week.

http://www.forexcrunch.com/category/...eekly-outlook/

Looks like a normal expected week to me ,the strong currencies will probably stay strong and the weak would still week. Not sure about the USD. But I am still holding my trigger to any unexpected rate change.

Added another sell order to EUR/CAD at 1.3326. Total pips so far ~+15

Closed GBP/JPY at 142.10 with +140 pips . Don't think it will go down any further.

Closed XAU/USD at 1160.30 +190 pips

Added limit orders for AUD/JPY , CAD/JPY USD/MXN and USD/TRY. Note to myself , move SL to profitable positions before Bernanke speaks. Hope the CAD news strengthen it today. I have 2 longs for CAD/JPY and 2 shorts for EU/CAD

I am short E/U E/J E/G E/AUD and E/CAD only due to Portugal problems coming into the spot.