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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,661
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:37am Apr 27, 2010 3:37am
Quoting Zoran
fti, based on what you said above, do you mind us discussing "spirals within spirals" umongst ourselves?
I like your approach Zoran by asking first, and I assume that until there is an answer from fti we can assume the topic is off limits here. Besides, if fti is not going to participate in discussion, I think further discussion would be like blind leading blind -- lol.
  • #14,662
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:49am Apr 27, 2010 3:49am
hello Guys i need a lil Help please, and i know that this Topic is not the right topic but please forgive me and am so sorry for the Topic Creator or the rest of the members.

am in work now and i cant access my Trading Platform @ FXSOL (Australia)

all i want to know is the (H/L/C/O)of the 05.00 GMT of the GBP/JPY 1H Candle for Today Tuesday 27/4/2010, if any one can help i would be so so so appreciated,

thanks in advance and waiting ur Kind Reply
  • #14,663
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:50am Apr 27, 2010 3:50am
Quoting GEfx
I like your approach Zoran by asking first, and I assume that until there is an answer from fti we can assume the topic is off limits here. Besides, if fti is not going to participate in discussion, I think further discussion would be like blind leading blind -- lol.
I suppose it depends on what fti meant. Did he not want any discussion at all or only with him? I wouldn't mind going over it with others if he doesn't object. My interpretation was that he doesn't want any discussion so unless he clarifies I'll just keep my mouth closed.
  • #14,664
  • Apr 27, 2010 3:51am Apr 27, 2010 3:51am
Quoting auxesis
Fana,

GE has some good points in his post.

Drop the Elliott counts, you will only confuse yourself trying to count the corrective waves, most of the times corrective waves will be a series of mixed up waves going counter-trend, it's too easy to mislabel them. This is where all the zig-zag- double-triple compound blah blah blah counts start to come in..... as the person who's counting gets their counts invalidated on each new progressive corrective wave.

Just know that [b]" for the trend to be in effect, the correction can't go back past the...
Thanks Auxesis for explaination that was fantastic I can see the picture much clearer by looking between 1hr & 15m chart. And I'm very happy.

So I take 1hr(or daily)chart as a trend then I should look for counter or trend trade at 5m or 15m If I'm not wrong?

I also have one question in the chart.
Thank you Auxsesis

Best regards,
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  • #14,665
  • Apr 27, 2010 4:07am Apr 27, 2010 4:07am
Quoting Zoran
I suppose it depends on what fti meant. Did he not want any discussion at all or only with him? I wouldn't mind going over it with others if he doesn't object. My interpretation was that he doesn't want any discussion so unless he clarifies I'll just keep my mouth closed.
I guess Fti wants we, ourself work hard for it and find the solution by ourself cos different ppl different trading style. Well I guess.

Best regards,
  • #14,666
  • Apr 27, 2010 4:10am Apr 27, 2010 4:10am
Quoting Zoran
I suppose it depends on what fti meant. Did he not want any discussion at all or only with him? I wouldn't mind going over it with others if he doesn't object. My interpretation was that he doesn't want any discussion so unless he clarifies I'll just keep my mouth closed.
Same here. Looking forward very much to some discussions, after fti clarifies whether he wishes this or not.

Regards,
Baifu
  • #14,667
  • Apr 27, 2010 4:17am Apr 27, 2010 4:17am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

..............
But we will most probably never reach that level of "neutrality" we need to judge a market (when money is envolved) unbiased.
..............

CU,
MaMood.
Hi!

The reason is this: people have a very emotional relationship
with money because it is a constituent part of his ego.

You must destroy this symbiotic relationship,
and you will achieve what you are searching.

You are not your money.

Rgs,

Textor

P.S. Ich war in Januar in München. Ausser Schnee, ich habe dich in
keinen Biergarten gesehen...
  • #14,668
  • Apr 27, 2010 5:08am Apr 27, 2010 5:08am
Re: the Euro today: Trichet speaks about 2 hours from now and may provide the market with the excuse to square today's move south, but the move so far is certainly south. Just something to watch as the day unfolds. Trade well.
  • #14,669
  • Edited 7:00am Apr 27, 2010 6:39am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting pete.alfa

So I take 1hr(or daily)chart as a trend then I should look for counter or trend trade at 5m or 15m If I'm not wrong?

I also have one question in the chart.
Pete,
Study these posts from Fti, as I believe they will shed some light on timeframe positioning.

As a side note will uncover what I believe is the fallacy of the order flow threads that seem to have surfaced lately, that’s another topic later maybe.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=59

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5563

to quote "So we use daily trend as the direction to build book size and short charts to make market for retraces."

Realize there are trends with in trends with in trends, from 1 minute and less up to daily, weekly and all in between. [See charts below]

We want to focus on a timeframe that allows ample room for movement. That time frame needs to be analyzed in the context of how it fits into the next higher timeframe, “are we in trend or correction or consolidation” and then where that higher time frame fits into the next level up, same questions.

We understand the “now” direction of the market by its price action, is it making higher highs/lows or opposite, also is it trending or consolidating taken from the next higher level.
Question you need to answer is” what timeframe do you look at corrections as opportunities to reload for a continuation of the trend”, “and at what point is the correction a means to trade for profit”? How your chosen timeframes react in that context will dictate your positioning.

Imho, the timeframes laid out in this thread are 5/15 minute (note these are the same to me, exception on the turns a 5 minute chart is easier to see.) Hourly and Daily.

For me, Daily dictates overall trend, hourly dictates the direction of my daily trade, and 5/15 minutes timeframes dictate my trading in relation to the hourly. So I’m looking to enter in the direction (taken from of the hourly patterns) when the smaller 5/15 time frames are turning that direction. I want to enter on the pullbacks and unload on the extensions or range side to range side in that direction. When hourly patterns are in sync with daily I'm looking for trend, when against I'm looking for correction, same applies to the 5/15 in relation to hourly. At any level when corrective phase is turning back to trend direction take note. When both are in sync what would that tell you?

Fwiw, Regards,
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  • #14,670
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:00am Apr 27, 2010 7:00am
Great post aux, am learning much from your charts. A question though, do you place more weight on "waves" that occur at significant times such as news driven moves as well as the liquidity of the day when that move occur ? On smaller time frames, would you consider the price range expansion limitation as the trading day progress ? On the points I asked, I practice them personally but would like to know if you consider these facts too.

Edit : one more thing, would you agree that the highest probability is when the turning points of these different levels occur at confluence ? Seems logical to me, however dangerous mindset given the rigidity.

regards.

mark
  • #14,671
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:39am Apr 27, 2010 7:39am
Quoting Fana
I have found something VERY important.
It enlighted me what are spirals, how to use them.

First: Spirals are...., events exist and occures. It is not like that they dont.
When EVENTS exist, we can intersect with them.

Spirals are in everything. It is generator of progress. Like when you realize about everything : This is it... and you very clearly know that it is just right it.

This is what i am looking in trading. With it, you know a future.
This is why i have no damage from what had happened (DD), i will turn it into the benefit.

So...
Hi Fana

"talent is Trend and work is Thickening"

"spiral from the perspective from above the circle but needs support in order to winding".
  • #14,672
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:45am Apr 27, 2010 7:45am
Quoting Gro
Hi Fana

"talent is Trend and work is Thickening"

"spiral from the perspective from above the circle but needs support in order to winding".


This is really great thread. GREAT people here and great discussions. I like the QUALITY you provide.
  • #14,673
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:53am Apr 27, 2010 7:53am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Great post aux, am learning much from your charts. A question though, do you place more weight on "waves" that occur at significant times such as news driven moves as well as the liquidity of the day when that move occur ? On smaller time frames, would you consider the price range expansion limitation as the trading day progress ? On the points I asked, I practice them personally but would like to know if you consider these facts too.

Edit : one more thing, would you agree that the highest probability is when the turning points of these different...
Mark,

Hummm, my $.02…… Mostly I try to let the chart speak for itself, and view waves as just the motion between “changes of state” i.e point “a” to point “b” or those places where buyers and sellers change positions [hourly and up]. It makes sense to me that there are times where price has found its level but the timing is that the larger side is unwilling to enter. Example price moving to a level out of the Asian and then going into a range till London where it reacts with force, obviously the market was waiting for something, that point and respective levels would be significant in my book. Volume, even though we can’t see it, plays its part. Levels established in low volume settings would be subject, yes………..but hard to know the difference sometimes from just a topical view.

Smaller waves are all in context to the next level up. Hopefully (which is generally not the case) they make some sense, channeling, parabolic pattern, not breaking back and forth on each other, Else I tend to get washed out of the move, and then I'm waiting for the next larger turn. Tis’ a scorpion on my part when that happens as I should position on the larger pattern as it normally completes without me.

Agreed it does seem they line up most of the time, probably in respect to the Volume issue needed to complete or reverse order flow, perhaps????

Regards.
  • #14,674
  • Apr 27, 2010 7:55am Apr 27, 2010 7:55am
Quoting MaMood
Hi,

especially the "gut knows" is a very interesting statement.
I think it is common sense, that our subconscious is recognizing a lot more informations than we are used to "process" with our conscious. And the information gathered and processed by our subconscious is not filtered or biased by any emotions or interpretations/valuations of our conscious part of brain.
Now we have to ask, how can we get access to all this valuable informations and advices/decisions processed by our subconscious part of brain?
May be to some of us this information...
Hi MaMood

Yes, human is "borders around the empty space" ... this empty space is big potential and the big potential of responding to sound and pictures.
  • #14,675
  • Edited 8:24am Apr 27, 2010 8:11am | Edited 8:24am
Quoting MaMood;
Hi,

especially the "gut knows" is a very interesting statement.
I think it is common sense, that our subconscious is recognizing a lot more informations than we are used to "process" with our conscious. And the information gathered and processed by our subconscious is not filtered or biased by any emotions or interpretations/valuations of our conscious part of brain.
Now we have to ask, how can we get access to all this valuable informations and advices/decisions processed by our subconscious part of brain?
May be to some of us this information is presented as intuition or feeling of gut. Some others may describe it as "Feel the market" or "Feel the dance" ...

CU,
MaMood.
Great question. Can the subconsc mind be trained? I'm sure it can.
So far, in my study/search (k, I'm a really curious bloke. I like to know how and why stuff works. some say it's a talent, I think it's OCD. ),
3 things have come up.

(1) Your subconc mind will digest stuff you tell it. Speak it, write it to yourself. It'll soak it up. I've been keeping a journal for years. I suppose it does surface. I find that it make the mind and subconc mind all the more pliable and adaptable. I read some of my journals from just like a year back and think that I was so full of shit. LOL. It's one of the main things I attribute my personal progress to.

(2) I saw something fti posted about learning to use a katana. Well I do know how to use one, and have been doing martial arts for awhile. We drill drill drill drill drill drill drill and suddenly there's that "tada!" moment where it all becomes instinct. Drill even more and it becomes a very fine, sharp instinct. If anything it teaches you that fighting the flow puts you at a severe disadvantage. You get "sold" on what you think your opponent is going to do and you are going to get your ass whooped. Great incentive to remain open minded and react as trained to input.... much like markets....
Edit: after awhile, one also begins to internalise the probability of giving and taking hits. so when evenly matched you either be patient and wait... be a sneaky prick, OR, you wait for that good risk/reward where u take little but can dish out alot. (and when outclassed you RUN!)

(3) I've found 'meditation' to be useful. I think science has recently shown that breath control helps the subcon process. It's the only element that's subconsc that can be controlled consciously. Some think it's the bridge btw the 2 minds.

Quoting Setebos;
I am a person with a strong "sixth sense" so I know exactly what you mean. Imho it's all about one's personal balance - to find your correct mixture of gut feeling, general market emotions (greed and fear), rational mind.
Yeah dude. Personal balance is the phrase. For me, it helps alot to journal. I often find that I know the answer. It's just that I need to translate it into words.. which can translates into actions.

Quoting Setebos;
No rule is written in stone, each one of us needs to find his own understanding of what's happening in the markets. Or suffer using someone else's understanding. The market doesn't give a rat's arse about someone's market theory - it will do what it will do. There's no holy grail. Or another favorite quote of mine - there is no spoon
Haha. Well put. Your read Frank Herbert? I suspect you'll like his train of thought. One of my fav authors. =)

Quoting Setebos;
Edit: being on the subject - there's something worrying in the way EURUSD is moving down this morning. Doesn't feel right. I will stay on the sideline for now, watching the game from the bench
Really? I like these kinda moves. You get in early ride some on the way down, scale out to put money in the pocket and cross your fingers for a runner.
Edit: Sorry. My bad. My morning is around Japan lunch.

I think I might hv an idea of what you're seeing though. Over extension? Then usually the rubber band snaps back hard after that (like we seeing now). The gut knows eh?

One of my mates "qualified" it with market profile. Apparently market profile shows several bell curve like distributions per day. Tomorrow's tend to fill today's tails. Those usually are overextension points. One of those nice to know points. I prefer to keep things simple. If it's acting weird it just means its time to scale out. All these fancy things... they run the risk of becoming complexity of form, hindering the simplicity of expression.
--
That said, there's a part of me that still is hesitant when it comes to pulling the trigger sometimes. There's got to be some psych thing/kink somewhere in there cause it's just bloody irrational and it's not as though I'm new to the game. Working this one out.. =P
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,676
  • Apr 27, 2010 8:18am Apr 27, 2010 8:18am
Quoting Gro
Hi MaMood

Yes, human is "borders around the empty space" ... this empty space is big potential and the big potential of responding to sound and pictures.
Oh. Interesting. I actually think of order flow as "the stuff going on in the empty (white) space". One of my unofficial mentors taught me to think in those terms/incentives.

(man, finally this thread is awake. I was wondering all mornin' where everyone was. LOL. right. and now it's time to pay the sleep piper. zzz)
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,677
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:18am Apr 27, 2010 9:18am
although 3181 was a area of extra intrest on the weekly

eyes open e/u 3219 area looking at a tuesday daily chart
3464
3342
3219

with an eye on 3397
  • #14,678
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:32am Apr 27, 2010 9:32am
OK, the Euro has been hit hard by news on Portugal debt rating, which has now joined Greece as junk. Hope you all got some of that gift from the rating agencies. My trading station was a little crazy but I finally got an order in (fti, I remember your posts from last week and this really got me mad there for a minute, these brokers. Their quotes were about 20 seconds behind my charts).

Wonder which nation is next (maybe US -- LOL). Just be thankful you are not a Goldman exec today -- yikes!

Trade well everyone.
  • #14,679
  • Apr 27, 2010 9:35am Apr 27, 2010 9:35am
Quoting GEfx

Wonder which nation is next

Trade well everyone.
Spain, Ireland, Euro zone all together, Russia , GB, US, all 3rd World currencies.

Hello IMF.
  • #14,680
  • Apr 27, 2010 10:03am Apr 27, 2010 10:03am
While I do not condone Paulson's activities at GS, it's obvious that the panel of Senators probing GS have no clue as to what they are asking.
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