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Fibonacci Paradise

  • #21
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:34pm Apr 26, 2010 4:34pm
I think young OGW had his EU 4h fib in the right place. Bartstop, we both drew ours in a slightly different place. Our fibs had price close outside the lower 138. We should have moved our fib to where OGW had it.

Use his fib placement and have a look at where price is reacting now.

OGW, if you are watching, apologies, you were right, in my opinion anyway.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #22
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:57pm Apr 26, 2010 4:57pm
I wanted to clear up some confusion I may have caused and post the 3 setups that I know of using 61.8 fibbing. Back in January I thought I had cracked this fibbing lark and started out using this setup. This is what I thought Thomknight was doing. I'd pull a fib fitting a pullback to the 61.8 then I would look for an immediate exact hit on the 50. I would then take the break of the zero. If price headed back past my 61.8 on my fib I would turn my fib around and look in the other direction. I never used any larger fibs.

I had 8 straight winners doing this and made 20% in one week, why didn't I stick to it????

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  • #23
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:11pm Apr 26, 2010 5:11pm
Trade no 9 was this EUR USD trade. First of all it was a bit different to all the rest. The winners were all 61.8 to 50 fibs whereas this one was 61.8 to 38.2. I remember I was trading against the trend, EUR USD was getting sold heavily, I went long duh. Second thing that destroyed me was my stop, I used the full width of the fib, well it hit the stop and wiped out more than half of all my good trades. At the time the stop at the 100 went out the window, I wasn't doing that again. I think the bad thing is it stopped me using the 61.8 to 50 fib, it made think I had the whole shooting match wrong. Off the top of my head all the 61.8 to 50 fibs never retraced past the 38 and I suppose although it isnt great risk reward a stop at the 50 would have sufficed. Still, I went back to the drawing board.

Here's the bummer trade.

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  • #24
  • Edited 5:44pm Apr 26, 2010 5:25pm | Edited 5:44pm
I went back off rummaging throught the thread, looking at Thom's posts, talking to Skong about it and came to the conclusion that a pierce is very important somewhere down the line. I tried asking Thom but he had gone walkabout so I put my head together with Skong and came up with the below setup. I believe it to be the best and it hardly lets me down. I put my stop above the last push from the inner fib level. A 50 or 38 is my preference.

This fib moves in 5 waves, we take the end of the last, the break of the zero. I'm not gonna mention Elliot Wave.

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61.8 to pierce, back to 38 or 50 then trade the zero break.
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  • #25
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:34pm Apr 26, 2010 5:34pm
I'm gonna blame Skong for finding this one. It came via a post between BarTstop and Thomknight. I never picked it up at the time but Skong see's all........ This setup is slightly different. As always we pull to a 61.8 but we are looking to see if price has pierced zero before our 61.8 but after the 100 starting point. Thom said these hit target 4 out of 5. We take the zero break after the 61.8. This one is fairly new to us and requires a bit more testing. I call this our riskier fib.

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  • #26
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:42pm Apr 26, 2010 5:42pm
As BarTstop often states it's human nature to overcomplicate matters. I was doing handsomely with my very first setup, why did I change it after all it wasnt the 61.8 to 50 fib that let me down. The massive stop placement was a big part of the damage.

Still we push on looking to see which larger cycle we are in in order to find a clear path for our smaller fib. I actually think this is a good thing. Since I've been trying to place larger fibs I have often seen price react to them and they have stopped me taking smaller trades I would have lost on.

I hope this helps.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #27
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:31pm Apr 26, 2010 6:31pm
Seeing as I've been whinging about my first setup I thought I'd go and look for one. I just took this trade.

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  • #28
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:33pm Apr 26, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I've had another look at that EU 4h chart, I believe it is wrong. There is another pullback in there that is easily missed. This also produces a 61.8 to 50 fib which went straight to target.

Have a look at my new chart. The fib is complete and price has not closed outside of it but price remains inside so I will leave it here for now.

Attachment

MD.
Fibs trading toast mate! A pierce of the 138 is a move signal. I only keep the blighters if I see a to the tick hit of the 138 ... a good tight stop trade in the opposite direction..or take it on the break of the inners if it happens as it is ofte a major reverse signal.

A rejection of the 100 or 0 I keep to because that is a minor reverse set up most like could still pierce bu not now. Good onya guys I like this. Don't focus too much on super large fibs unless you are trading the buggers!! I mean perhaps use d1 and h1 or h4 and h1 in combo but if it works it works and 20 pips is 20000 pips if you seen some that doesn't fail. Less pips is often better since it is quicker but choose your own colour!

Again spot on guys keep it up and also a monthly chart make take years or decades to complete so time is an issueif that is not how long you want to be in a trade. Chuckle

Tk
  • #29
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:36pm Apr 26, 2010 6:36pm
Quoting Misterdaz
Seeing as I've been whinging about my first setup I thought I'd go and look for one. I just took this trade.

Attachment
Good eye! I get all misty when I see that 61 50 set up
Tk
  • #30
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:45pm Apr 26, 2010 6:45pm
Quoting Misterdaz
I went back off rummaging throught the thread, looking at Thom's posts, talking to Skong about it and came to the conclusion that a pierce is very important somewhere down the line. I tried asking Thom but he had gone walkabout so I put my head together with Skong and came up with the below setup. I believe it to be the best and it hardly lets me down. I put my stop above the last push from the inner fib level. A 50 or 38 is my preference.

This fib moves in 5 waves, we take the end of the last, the break of the zero. I'm not gonna mention Elliot...
If one for what ever reason was unsure the pippy rejection of the 38 was agreat entry point where if you care about rr at the point could go madcap since it pierced then reconfirmed on that failure but the zero breaks works just fine. You seem to be getting your sealegs keep it up!
  • #31
  • Apr 26, 2010 8:12pm Apr 26, 2010 8:12pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Fibs trading toast mate! A pierce of the 138 is a move signal. I only keep the blighters if I see a to the tick hit of the 138 ... a good tight stop trade in the opposite direction..or take it on the break of the inners if it happens as it is ofte a major reverse signal.

A rejection of the 100 or...
Thank you Thom. I was waiting for a respect of the new fib position but if a pierce is a move signal, that's what I'll do.


Bartstop
  • #32
  • Apr 26, 2010 8:18pm Apr 26, 2010 8:18pm
Quoting ThomKnight
Fibs trading toast mate! A pierce of the 138 is a move signal. I only keep the blighters if I see a to the tick hit of the 138 ... a good tight stop trade in the opposite direction..or take it on the break of the inners if it happens as it is ofte a major reverse signal.

A rejection of the 100 or...
..or take it on the break of the inners if it happens as it is often a major reverse signal.

Is this what you mean ?

Thanks
SK
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  • #33
  • Apr 26, 2010 8:22pm Apr 26, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting bartstop
Thank you Thom. I was waiting for a respect of the new fib position but if a pierce is a move signal, that's what I'll do.


Bartstop
BarTstop,
Does that mean that a pierce of the 138.2 is a signal to reverse?

Thanks
SK
  • #34
  • Apr 26, 2010 8:34pm Apr 26, 2010 8:34pm
Quoting ThomKnight
20 pips is 20000 pips if you seen some that doesn't fail. Less pips is often better since it is quicker but choose your own colour!

Tk
I'm with Thom on this one. 20 pips and out.

20 pips at $50/pip repeated a few times a week adds up in a hurry.

I have to admit it's hard to get past the greedy little red bastard sitting on your shoulder telling you to hold on to the bitter end.
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  • #35
  • Apr 26, 2010 8:39pm Apr 26, 2010 8:39pm
Quoting skong
BarTstop,
Does that mean that a pierce of the 138.2 is a signal to reverse?

Thanks
SK
No, just the opposite. A pierce is a signal to move the fib because price wants to go further. A "to the pip hit" is a sign of a major reversal.

That's what I've been wanting to ask Thom for a while now. I'm sure glad he cleared that up for me.

Bartstop
  • #36
  • Apr 26, 2010 8:40pm Apr 26, 2010 8:40pm
Quoting bartstop
No, just the opposite. A pierce is a signal to move the fib because price wants to go further. A "to the pip hit" is a sign of a major reversal.

That's what I've been wanting to ask Thom for a while now. I'm sure glad he cleared that up for me.

Bartstop

Thanks.
  • #37
  • Edited 11:25pm Apr 26, 2010 11:21pm | Edited 11:25pm
Quoting Misterdaz
OGW, if you are watching, apologies, you were right, in my opinion anyway.

MD.
Hi. There is no need to apologize for anything, we are here to exchange ideas, in this case fib placements, not to prove ourselves right or wrong...

I used to follow Skunny's thread a long time ago. Actually, it had gotten me the closest to consistancy that I have ever been until I started doing all sorts of "follies", I think I had become so confident that I tought I could "control" the market... ending up trading against the trend most of the time.

Now, ThomKnight's posts as well as yours, BartStop and the others have revived my interest in Fibs a whole lot. Your last few posts are gold. Thank you for sharing.
  • #38
  • Apr 27, 2010 12:43am Apr 27, 2010 12:43am
Thanks, I'm flattered.

Stick around.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #39
  • Apr 27, 2010 2:10am Apr 27, 2010 2:10am
I think we all know now when to move the fib but the contentious issue for me is where to start it. I dont think we need to look any further out than a 4h for what we are trading and so far it would seem to me sensible to zoom out a little and start from the last major low or high. Have a look at this cable chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable270410.png Size: 16 KB


The pierce then rejection of the 38 gives me a lot of confidence in this fib.

MD.
Keep smiling
  • #40
  • Apr 27, 2010 2:15am Apr 27, 2010 2:15am
MD,
Have I done you proud ?

SK
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