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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #222,461
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:47am Apr 26, 2010 3:47am
Evening all
  • #222,462
  • Apr 26, 2010 3:55am Apr 26, 2010 3:55am
Quoting lexazver
Hey I got a question, why if Labour win or there is hung parliament its bearish for pound...ok i kinda understand why hung parliament is bearish but why labour win is also?
The prevailing wisdom in the UK is that the Conservatives save money and Labour waste it. The Conservatives have promised to strart cutting the defecit immediately if they win, whereas Labour want to borrow their way out of recession.

The longer the UK has huge debts which are not reduced, the more pressure Sterling will be under.

A hung parliament would provide even less clarity with the 3 parties arguing, (and disagreeing), about the best way forward.
  • #222,463
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:01am Apr 26, 2010 4:01am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Hi G.
The UK election is next Thursday 6th. Counting is always very quick and the result will be known by approx 3.00am BST on the 7th, (11.00am Tokyo time, 10.00pm EST (6th)).

I will be trading the entire night session UK time as early indications of a winner/majorities etc, will make Sterling move very strongly.

I'm even contemplating starting an election night thread with regular updates, but we'll see.
Would very much look forward to your views on the results progress & impact towards sterling - input into this thread would be fantastic, or whatever other venue works for you.

I'll have to find a web outlet to also follow results, that's viewable here in NA - it's sure to be an intriguing race.
  • #222,464
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:14am Apr 26, 2010 4:14am
Quoting ukdaytrader
The prevailing wisdom in the UK is that the Conservatives save money and Labour waste it. The Conservatives have promised to strart cutting the defecit immediately if they win, whereas Labour want to borrow their way out of recession.

The longer the UK has huge debts which are not reduced, the more pressure Sterling will be under.

A hung parliament would provide even less clarity with the 3 parties arguing, (and disagreeing), about the best way forward.
thanks, i get it .. but.. so far conservitives been saying that they wil cut deficit but I havent seen precise and concise way in which they will do it (significantly). Anyways i think it will be much more volatile after election regardles of result.
  • #222,465
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:22am Apr 26, 2010 4:22am
Quoting ngiler
anyone can tell me what happen to Geppy.... Going Up and down within 30mins.... scary man... I dont even dare to scalp it...
i see bearish biases on 30min 1h 4h and daily charts, maybe not now, but soon.. should go up for some more, in a tiny rising wedge, probably down after, maybe a new short term downtrend or just a retracement. we are at a strong resistance level, starting from 2008.09.05, struggling to pass over it right now.
  • #222,466
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:33am Apr 26, 2010 4:33am
Quoting lexazver
thanks, i get it .. but.. so far conservitives been saying that they wil cut deficit but I havent seen precise and concise way in which they will do it (significantly). Anyways i think it will be much more volatile after election regardles of result.
Both Labour and the Conservatives have been particularly opaque this election with regards to how they would cut the defecit. But, in a nutshell Labour will not cut public spending and the Conservatives want to cut it by £6Bln in the first year.

An outright Conservative win is the only result which will be bullish for Sterling IMO.
  • #222,467
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:35am Apr 26, 2010 4:35am
Quoting ukdaytrader
Hi G.
The UK election is next Thursday 6th. Counting is always very quick and the result will be known by approx 3.00am BST on the 7th, (11.00am Tokyo time, 10.00pm EST (6th)).

I will be trading the entire night session UK time as early indications of a winner/majorities etc, will make Sterling move very strongly.

I'm even contemplating starting an election night thread with regular updates, but we'll see.
Thanks a lot mate
  • #222,468
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:37am Apr 26, 2010 4:37am
His MIND might have exploded by now.....
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #222,469
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:46am Apr 26, 2010 4:46am
Quoting Raza
His MIND might have exploded by now.....
it is written there before he is being suspended....
it will not hit 147.00

Geppy is still waiting for US market?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1272275099

in between 145.1x - 145.6x
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: untitled.JPG Size: 42 KB
row row row your boat
  • #222,470
  • Apr 26, 2010 4:57am Apr 26, 2010 4:57am
There's still no clear idea where GBPJPY is going in the short term periods. So here is my chart analysis for a medium/longer term trade.

Chart shows an interesting view in that the price has twice before just gone over the 3 EMA's and dropped south sharply - again history repeating itself?


Monthly:
Clear bull possible start June/July
Reasons: CCI rising, Price rising towards a Fibonnaci EMAs 89, 144, 233. Aroon ind setting up for a bull run.
Price max: 153.50


weekly: Looks like bear forming.
Reasons: Price has crossed EMA 89, 144,233. Oct 2009 and jan 2010 both saw prices go over the EMAs before dropping steeply south.
Price: 135 looks the best bet.

Daily:
No real clear sign looks slightly bullish but can't be sure,

H4: Lining up for a bear drop south.
reasons: CCI at 155 and slowly dropping. Aroon blue line now over 50. Price over the 3 EMAs.
Price: Unable to predict at moment.


The time frame from late today to 3 months. If you understand Elliot wave, then we are possibly on a wave 2 heading for a large drop.

As for the General Election, the most fascinating aspect is hardly mentioned. If the Scottish nationals get their 20 seats and there's a hung parliament and they pair up with Labour - then they'd put huge pressure to gain North Sea oil revenues back into Scotland. The pound might almost collapse at any mention of North Sea Oil talks. (just thinking aloud).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY 26 April daily.jpg Size: 136 KB
  • #222,471
  • Apr 26, 2010 5:20am Apr 26, 2010 5:20am
Quoting ngiler
it is written there before he is being suspended....
it will not hit 147.00

Geppy is still waiting for US market?
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1272275099

in between 145.1x - 145.6x
He said 145 then it became 147.../

147.55 is the 50% retrace of this whole move from 163 - 132.

I see MAX 149.70ish... by Miracle ..If it does not retrace from 146.60.-147.68
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #222,472
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:18am Apr 26, 2010 6:18am
tl tested and there is a evening doji star
could anyone interpret this?
thank you
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eveningdojistar.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #222,473
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:35am Apr 26, 2010 6:35am
Quoting riko2705
tl tested and there is a evening doji star
could anyone interpret this?
thank you
though the pattern is there, we just cleared 145 resistance.
i (personally) would not take that setup. gl to all
  • #222,474
  • Apr 26, 2010 6:40am Apr 26, 2010 6:40am
Quoting pkimnyc
though the pattern is there, we just cleared 145 resistance.
i (personally) would not take that setup. gl to all
thank you pkimnyc
good trading
  • #222,475
  • Edited 6:58am Apr 26, 2010 6:47am | Edited 6:58am
Monthly=Bull n no doubt 146.2-147.2 easyly or maybe even higher to 148.2-150.2-151.50

but weekly i saw something weird...bullish continuition (medium term)???
146.2-147.2 again easyly or even higher 148.2...

so for me...some cooking/fishy..
n maybe some price programming corrupted...

so the best way is = close my GBPJPY chart and look for other pair like EU/GU or AUDUSD etc



g
  • #222,476
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:07am Apr 26, 2010 7:07am
Quoting pkimnyc
though the pattern is there, we just cleared 145 resistance.
i (personally) would not take that setup. gl to all

Previously 145 is resistance ....but now - support
  • #222,477
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:14am Apr 26, 2010 7:14am
5-3-3 pattern?
Attached Image
  • #222,478
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:15am Apr 26, 2010 7:15am
thank you rashid pandora box
good luck to all
  • #222,479
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:19am Apr 26, 2010 7:19am
Weekly Resistance at 149.85( My target ). Previous Daily resistance is 144.50. Now is support. Expected to Retrace back to 144.50 before advancing to 149.85
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj10.gif Size: 46 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj daily.gif Size: 50 KB
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #222,480
  • Apr 26, 2010 7:22am Apr 26, 2010 7:22am
Hi everybody why is the room quiet?
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