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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,621
  • Edited Apr 25, 2010 8:48am Apr 24, 2010 9:00pm | Edited Apr 25, 2010 8:48am
Fana,
sorry to hear of your losses as you were on the wrong side of the trend, weve all gone through them.
I had mention e/u 3335-40 as a point of interest and suggested a rescue as I thought if there was a possibility we were going to grab 40 pips or so it would be from that area . I even grabbed a few myself which I took before I had to go to work.
My bias was down for the day from 3402 with eyes open @ 3335 area. when we broke thru 3335 and came back to test the area she continued south, thats where my bias changed and would have flipped.

looking at the weekly chart my bias is down from 3426 although eyes are always open.

3670
3426
3181

looking at last 3 months on e/u monthly chart
3793
3475 bias is down
3127

quarterly low area of 3032 and monthly 3127 are of extra interest to me in this down trend.

also watching g/u 1.5342 area looking for direction at weeks start.
  • #14,622
  • Apr 25, 2010 3:45pm Apr 25, 2010 3:45pm
Ai ya, guys.
Pls not confuse impulse from impulse waves.

Battle on, Buba and Panda on one side.
Red coats and heli on another.

this makes interesting batlle. Watch out for gaps.
those trying gap covering, watch out for break aways..
where's super fleas?

Shoulder hoist, quick march.
Danging, trying fig out where todays low.

regards
  • #14,623
  • Apr 25, 2010 4:06pm Apr 25, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting auxesis
Gro, I do not understand your comparison between the market direction, "you emphasize the direction" and time. If your referencing time at all in Dimension?

edit: after reviewing I think I understand.......... if the market trend is up, you are biased long, regardless of correction
Hi auxesis

Price either rejects the historical price or accepts.I painted my inputs and thinking how the price evolves (Fana pictures).
The second picture (I think,Setebos call it floating S/R) is my way of money management in sequences.
"In trend quick profit and stagnation big profit" ... why? It is a dimension for me (scout,MM,panic point,pain treshold ... life in market).
Dimension for market ... how much percent is trend?Therefore, I am writing about time.

Reards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dimensionforme.JPG Size: 157 KB
  • #14,624
  • Apr 25, 2010 4:18pm Apr 25, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting fti
Battle on, Buba and Panda on one side.
Red coats and heli on another.

this makes interesting batlle. Watch out for gaps.
those trying gap covering, watch out for break aways..
where's super fleas?
hello FTi, i hope you are doing well sir!!

i am doing allright for a few months, watching daily/weekly TF and reading the economist.

about the battle: buba and panda i asume are china and US... but red coats i think about thailand and "heli" i think germany and i am shure iam am wrong....

can you explain the forces in this battle or should i read the thread to find out??

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #14,625
  • Apr 25, 2010 5:02pm Apr 25, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting fti
Ai ya, guys.
Pls not confuse impulse from impulse waves.

regards
Hello!

I'm sorry, but I don't understand what do you mean exactly
with this sentence: "Pls not confuse impulse from impulse waves".

...may be one gin tonic too much...

Kind regards,

Textor
  • #14,626
  • Apr 25, 2010 5:14pm Apr 25, 2010 5:14pm
Quoting textor
Hello!

I'm sorry, but I don't understand what do you mean exactly
with this sentence: "Pls not confuse impulse from impulse waves".

...may be one gin tonic too much...

Kind regards,

Textor
impulse is noun, ie doing word
impulse wave is rigid minds.

buba= CB
panda = sovereign speculator
red coats = foreign legion
heli= man dumping money from the sky.

If you cannot understand this still, forex is not your cup of tea.

regards
  • #14,627
  • Apr 25, 2010 5:38pm Apr 25, 2010 5:38pm
Quoting fti
impulse is noun, ie doing word
impulse wave is rigid minds.

buba= CB
panda = sovereign speculator
red coats = foreign legion
heli= man dumping money from the sky.

If you cannot understand this still, forex is not your cup of tea.

regards
Thank you. May be you are right at least about tea...

Rgs,

Textor
  • #14,628
  • Apr 25, 2010 8:25pm Apr 25, 2010 8:25pm
this is heli
http://riverdaughter.files.wordpress...8/bernanke.jpg
  • #14,629
  • Edited 9:22pm Apr 25, 2010 8:43pm | Edited 9:22pm
looking at e/u daily chart
in at 3356 but looking for direction.
eyes on 3372
3532
3372
3211

along with 3 kingdoms watching a/u 9274 looking for direction.
  • #14,630
  • Apr 25, 2010 9:21pm Apr 25, 2010 9:21pm
Quoting Fana
This is very important, i am still not sure if i have it... ?

Because when i see it... I would better prefer short positions to the corrective wave...
Short b, and d... ?
I tried this b4 and it sucked. LOL.
I was using EWT, BUT THE MARKET DIDN'T KNOW THAT!
So it stopped me out a few times.

I know only ONE guy who's REALLY good at it. He's an NDF god in Asia @ RBS (ex-ABN).
But no one knows how he does it. and it's not the only thing he uses either.

Bro, learn the meaning of the trend is your friend.
Actually, it's your paymaster.
Don't fight your boss. Not clever.
--
I'm bearish Fiber still, but the levels arn't great. 1/2 size and managing tight.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,631
  • Apr 25, 2010 9:40pm Apr 25, 2010 9:40pm
Quoting Cyrus
I tried this b4 and it sucked. LOL.
I was using EWT, BUT THE MARKET DIDN'T KNOW THAT!
So it stopped me out a few times.

I know only ONE guy who's REALLY good at it. He's an NDF god in Asia @ RBS (ex-ABN).
But no one knows how he does it. and it's not the only thing he uses either.

Bro, learn the meaning of the trend is your friend.
Actually, it's your paymaster.
Don't fight your boss. Not clever.
--
I'm bearish Fiber still, but the levels arn't great. 1/2 size and managing tight.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23569

well documented journal. it could not get any clearer than this

cheers
  • #14,632
  • Edited 10:23pm Apr 25, 2010 10:08pm | Edited 10:23pm
Quoting jest1081
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=23569

well documented journal. it could not get any clearer than this

cheers
Wow. Interesting. Thanks.
I'm not against EWT. I'm just saying I can't relate to it. No offense intended to anyone here.
I hear Paul Jones is big on EWT too, but to each his own yes? =)
Whatever works~
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,633
  • Edited 10:49pm Apr 25, 2010 10:29pm | Edited 10:49pm
Hello friends. Good tradeing week
I still cant get rid of a feeling, that fti thinks something very concrete...(about the right understanding of his teaching)
But still cant find out what... I can only -guess, try, try to make some synthesis, ...??

A:But when it is concrete, i should violate my own sensors...?
B:Or not try to violate, just let it develop itself...?

I hope, that fti thinks that B is right, with eye on A( not violate, but experience it in market and CONCRETE findings - and how to apply them)....

When i read Gann's Tunnel thru the air, i have some presentiment, but still very unclear... regards
  • #14,634
  • Apr 25, 2010 11:22pm Apr 25, 2010 11:22pm
Quoting Cyrus
Wow. Interesting. Thanks.
I'm not against EWT. I'm just saying I can't relate to it. No offense intended to anyone here.
I hear Paul Jones is big on EWT too, but to each his own yes? =)
Whatever works~
I saw that in his trader documentary too... In Market Wizards he said he really respected Robert Prechter's opinion but from all accounts Ive read Prechter's EWI recommendations have consistently underperformed.

From Wiki on Prechter:

"While Prechter has his admirers, he has been criticised by media and pundits. For example, the Wall Street Journal ran a page one article in August 1993 with the headline, "Robert Prechter sees his 3600 on the Dow--But 6 years late," in reference to Prechter's 1987 forecast for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.[17] Technical analyst David Aronson wrote:

The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.[18]

His long-term track record from his newsletter calls has been poor. Using data from newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, syndicated columnist Eric Tyson showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985. [19]
In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. Oil reached $135/barrel in late May 2008 before crashing as he had predicted."

More than anything I think Tudor like all great traders stayed in the markets a lot and gained experience as it were rather than his success having to do with Elliot Wave Theory. Not to mention having a legendary trader as a mentor.
  • #14,635
  • Apr 25, 2010 11:51pm Apr 25, 2010 11:51pm
Quoting Deusomega
I saw that in his trader documentary too... In Market Wizards he said he really respected Robert Prechter's opinion but from all accounts Ive read Prechter's EWI...
I am using EWT and doing quite well with it. I purchased the book Elliott Wave Principle written by Frost and Prechter 2 years ago. I must have read it a 4 or 5 before grasping the concept well enough for it to help me. It is is abstract and I don't know if everyone can grasp the concept. Beyond the wave patterns, I think there is one big stumbling block for most people. If you can't trade without an opinion already being formed in your mind as to where the market is going, you will not be objective and your charting will mean nothing.
  • #14,636
  • Apr 25, 2010 11:58pm Apr 25, 2010 11:58pm
Quoting JahDave
I am using EWT and doing quite well with it. I purchased the book Elliott Wave Principle written by Frost and Prechter 2 years ago. I must have read it a 4 or 5 before grasping the concept well enough for it to help me. It is is abstract and I don't know if everyone can grasp the concept. Beyond the wave patterns, I think there is one big stumbling block for most people. If you can't trade without an opinion already being formed in your mind as to where the market is going, you will not be objective and your charting will mean nothing.
And let me add to that, I use other technicals and fundamental announcements as well. There is no "Holy Grail" out there....LOL
  • #14,637
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:17am Apr 26, 2010 2:17am
Quoting fti
impulse is noun, ie doing word
impulse wave is rigid minds.

buba= CB
panda = sovereign speculator
red coats = foreign legion
heli= man dumping money from the sky.

If you cannot understand this still, forex is not your cup of tea.

regards
Hi FTI

I understand the impulse as "leader", then "flock" , and the end go "children".

My view on the market - "give a beggar alms and he becomes an entrepreneur?"

Regards
  • #14,638
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:18am Apr 26, 2010 2:18am
Quoting Deusomega
His long-term track record from his newsletter calls has been poor. Using data from newsletter tracker Mark Hulbert, syndicated columnist Eric Tyson showed that Prechter has underperformed the broad market averages by 25 percent per year since 1985. [19]
In July 2006 he asserted that gold had reached its peak and that oil, then around $70 bbl, also had peaked in price. Oil reached $135/barrel in late May 2008 before crashing as he had predicted."

More than...
Pretcher seems abit too married to his opinion...which well, imho, is dangerous. A grand super cycle whatever thingo can take a LONG time to unfold. And there's alot of money to be made in the mean time.

Quoting JahDave;
I am using EWT and doing quite well with it. I purchased the book Elliott Wave Principle written by Frost and Prechter 2 years ago. I must have read it a 4 or 5 before grasping the concept well enough for it to help me. It is is abstract and I don't know if everyone can grasp the concept. Beyond the wave patterns, I think there is one big stumbling block for most people. If you can't trade without an opinion already being formed in your mind as to where the market is going, you will not be objective and your charting will mean nothing.
Bravo mate. Glad it's turning out well for u. I hv the Elliot Wave Principle it on my table, but it confused me more than anything else. LOL.

In particular what you said in bold happened to me and that messed with me. I'm finding better efficacy with just price action, support & resistance an understanding of order flow and the economics behind a ccy pair.

That said, I read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator about 6 times. To each his own. Whatever contributes to the bottom line.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #14,639
  • Apr 26, 2010 2:23am Apr 26, 2010 2:23am
Quoting Cyrus
I tried this b4 and it sucked. LOL.
I was using EWT, BUT THE MARKET DIDN'T KNOW THAT!
So it stopped me out a few times.

I know only ONE guy who's REALLY good at it. He's an NDF god in Asia @ RBS (ex-ABN).
But no one knows how he does it. and it's not the only thing he uses either.

Bro, learn the meaning of the trend is your friend.
Actually, it's your paymaster.
Don't fight your boss. Not clever.
--
I'm bearish Fiber still, but the levels arn't great. 1/2 size and managing tight.
Hi Cyrus

Bro I'm probably.
"yes without a struggle it is easier"
  • #14,640
  • Edited 2:57am Apr 26, 2010 2:40am | Edited 2:57am
Hello and Good Morning Friends!

Sorry to hear about your bad experience Fana.
Glad that you have been able to reduce your loss by 10% then.

Finally that you made your trades public, has initiated a great disccussion.
It was very helpfull for me. So my big thanx to alll the contributors.

I myself am not trading for several weeks now. Have to do some other very high prio tasks. Hope I can restart with fulltime trading in June again. I miss it very much, to be a part of the market ....

Wish you all a great week!

Cu,
MaMood.

edit: Thinking about the "Spirals in spirals" thingy. Hope I find some time to post my understanding of it in the next days. But I have to confess, that I have not read the Tunnel through the Air book yet....

edit 2: And Thanx to you for your comments on my posting some days ago. Your different experiences, advices and opinions have been very useful for me!!!

Gald to be a member of our little TAF family
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