My path to financial freedom

Great journal!

Thanks for sharing your approach!!

Dan

May be is the start of the same disease of that guy in Jacko's thread

Sorry LJ I could not resist. LOL

Enjoy your wkend

Right...gonna post some charts which have setups that interest me or areas to watch during the course of the week...these are from pairs that aren't on my intra-day watchlist and at this stage I'm not considering correlated pairs etc. just looking for individual setups on individual pairs.

1. NZD / USD

0.7200 has confluence of round nuber, TL, PPz and 61 fib retracement...a good area for a touch trade short IMO..will set pending order tomorrow during European seesion if thi area isn't reached during Asian session tonight.

2. NZD / JPY

BUOB on weekly and a breakout on the daily...wait for a retrace then long to get in on the weekly BUOB @ a discount.

Conflcits with the touch trade in (1) though unless we have a major move in U/J.

3. CAD/CHF

Continuation BUOB on the weekly having broken above a PPZ...scrolling down to the daily you can see the PPZ and looking at the 1HR you can see a great entry with a BUOB.

I'd hardly ever take a weekly setup...I would just bear it in mind during the course of the week and try and get into the expected direction on a lower time frame and the 1HR bar is a great setup.

4. GBP / AUD

Pin bar off a strong PPZ and in fact following a false breakout of the PPZ. FTA is very close so would only take this trade if there was a retrace first towards the PPZ...even though if we retraced that much there is more of a risk that we will get a breakout towards the upside.

5. SGD / JPY

Weekly continuation BUOB above PPZ and TL. Would look for a retrace to the TL / PPZ i.e. breakout and retrace for an entry...looking at the 4HR chart you can see the likely area to go long.

6. USD / NOK

BEOB on daily time frame having broken a very clear and defined PPZ. Entering on a retrace back to the PPZ would be an obvous entry point which also has the 150EMA as potential resistance.

Another way of entering this would be to enter on the break or retracement but with the SL just above the PPZ...it is more likely, considering how the close of the bar is near it's low that the break will come first (unless there is a gap up on Sunday open) and thus having the SL just above the PPZ would make sense as if the PPZ gets broken there is a very high chance IMO that the BEOB will fail.

FTA is also a decent distance away...overall I'm quite liking this setup at the moment.

7. USD / SEK

BEOB on daiy timeframe. I'd only consider playing this if we got a retracement first to the PPZ marked - as the FTA is so close playing a break makes no sense to me from a %R perspective.

Hi LJ,

Whilst you are doing the "Exotic" pairs, could you please give us your view on AUD/NZD?

Cheers

8. CHF / JPY

Twp potential trade opportunities on this pair IMO...firstly an immediate long as we have broken the PPZ and have retraced back to it and a touch trade short - with my preferred area the 88.50 area which has fib, TL and PPZ confluence

Sure...here are my charts for the weekly and daily Tf on this pair.

I actually played the weekly pin on this pair but got stopped out because my SL was just above the PPZ but it was too close and the spread stopped me out which is frustrasting considering where price is now.

This pair is pretty choppy (look at a monthly chart) and you can see from my chart that we are sitting on weekly support now with a PPZ just under. This is even clearer from the daily chart...thus IMo we are in a sideways range at the moment so if I were to be trading this pair I've be playing the ranges until we got a breakout...but I dont trade this pair intra-day.

Another thing to look at would be the AU and NU charts...look and see the directions you expect each pair to go next week. and which pair has least resistance above it...froma quick look @ both AU and NU I'd say I would be bullish both of them but there is decent resistance not far above on both of them so I would expect the range on A/NZD to continue for the time being. you could also take it further and look at a chart of Gold which influences AU and also look at economic news releases this week to see what major moves could move each pair...

Thanks LJ
I did my own analyses as you recommended starting from weekly down to 4Hr. I want to have my own opinion before I read others.
It is nice to see that on some pairs we have the same view, (am i getting better ?

Specifically on A/N, as you mentioned the 2 pairs against USD are both very close to resistance, so it is gold. None of the 2 seems to have a stronger momentum.

When I went down to H4 I saw that there was a rejection to go lower and it was at a good PPZ.

That was it.

Thanks for posting your charts before next week.

With regards my intraday watchlist i.e. GU, GJ, AU, AJ, EU, EJ, UC, CJ, U/CHF, Gold and Oil I'm kind of in waiting mode on these at the moment.

I'm not keen on playing the current trends as we are near or at major PPZ areas on in particular AJ, GJ and CJ and thus until we get above these areas my bias would be short as near the highs as possible as there is more room to the downside. If we break above these PPZ areas then I'll be looking to get in on the breakout otherwise we could be in for another rangy week.

With regards equities...dow obviously broke above it's 4HR and 1HR resistance on Friday...however Dow is @ major PPZ on monthly, weekly etc and 61 fib retracement with major divergence on the 4HR and 1HR and this is why I am cautious about the Dow breakout and thus why I am doubtful that we will have breakouts on the xxx/jpy pairs next week.

Therefore my plan is to short AJ, GJ and CJ near the highs with SL above the highs. With regards the other watchlist pairs:

EU - 13400 / 13500 are confluence areas for short entries + U CHF is @ PPZ, TL and fib confluence support at the moment
EJ - not keen on until near 127
GU - not keen on until 1.5450 or a retrace back to the rising TL

EG - a nice BUOB on daily from a swing low @ PPZ with divergence...not sur ehow EUR can be stronger than GU next week but we could get a push to the FTA at least.

G/CHF - BEOB off PPZ...would have preferred for price to close below the PPZ and there is not much room but if it breaks there is a high probability IMO that price will reach the FTA.

Another angle to look at this is the PPZ I didn't mark on the original chart. Now for me the only way to take this trade from making it a reasonable %R perspective is to play a break of the oin abr with SL just below the first PPZ or to play a long from the PPZ (if price doesnt break the pin bar first) with SL below.

Overall over 3 weeks of trading I took 261 trades with a win rate of 59.4% and total increase in account balance of 357.74% risking a maximum of 3% per individual trade. closed balance chart attached.

I'm starting again witha much reduced new balance as mentioned previously so am now trading microlots size and thus am only using Alpari and Oanda to trader and therefore can no longer trade Oil...though will still use it in my analysis for CAD.

My third week of trading contained far too many trades...I became less picky and over traded far too much. it was however IMO a much tougher week to trade than my first two weeks...pairs were very rangy and quite choppy compared to the trendy first two weeks. You do get weeks when trading is more difficult than others but as long as the you maximise opportunuities in the real easy good weeks then this takes care of the bad weeks...though being able to stay clear of choppy markets and preserving capital is a must.

Personally I think we are in for another choppy week. No real economic news to speak of on Monday or Tuesday with the real data coming on Wednesday and Thursday for US in terms of FOMC statement and interest rate decision and Unemployment data. Thus the major news dominating the markets will be Greece bailout news and corporate earnings IMO. This could lead to a choppy market as risk appetite swings back and forth.

As I stated yesterday I want to aim for 130% per month over the next 6 months...which I know is achievable if I stick to what I know and trade without emotions affecting my trading, I made 357% in 3 weeks so 130% in 4 weeks should be fine lol. The key to this is consistency though consistency making 130% wont be easy but I'm confident (though a tad nervous) that I can do this.

My plan for next week is as follows:

1. Stay calm and focussed at all times.
2. Be patient and disciplined.
3. Be as prepared as possible...knowing what areas I am looking to trade well in advance with pre-thought out plans
4. Trade major PPZ areas with heavy confluence in ranging markets using split trades (one half to take profit at obvious PPZ and the other half to leave to see if can catch a runner).
5. dont trade counter trend unless a strong reason to do so...cathcing a trend and adding positions is key to obtaining big %R gains.
6. Risk max 5% per trade - being pickier I want to be able to risk more per trade.
7. Make sure I check 4HR bars on my non-intraday watchlist...as there are some good PA opportunities on these pairs..A/CHF BEOB on Friday was a classic example a slam dunk of a trade.
8. Zoom out and always look at the bigger picture
9. If indecisive about a trade dont trade it.
10. If trading well and going through a good winning streak then up the risk.
11. If losing and not picking winners then stop, take a break, preservation of capital is rule number 1 in trading.
12. Trade my charts and not my PnL
13. It's better to take a few trades and manage them well than to take too many trades that you cannot manage.
14. Be quick to change trading directions when my charts tell me too...eg. EU on Friday....hit PPZ had HH and HL bang should have been going long etc.
15. Post less on FF...I will be posting only when in waiting mode and at end of day / quiet 'lunch' sessions.
15. Get regular exercise and plenty of sleep.

Sounds good mate if you need help on material let me know.

Wish you many pips and good luck

Thanks, will do

Right... I've been through all of the daily / weekly setups and well I like nearly all of them, but decided to set the following orders @ market open (as long we dont have significant gaps). Most of my funds are in alapri at the moment (just waiting for sme more funds to be transferred to Oanda) so have to wait until 11pm local time for market open. Oh and now all my funds are in USD as a) I find it easier to calculate lot size and b) I reckon GBP will weaken against USD over the next 6 months.

I'll use a trade manager EA to manage these trades where needed, also these pending orders leave a buffer above / below the relevant PA bar and also take into account spreads...some Alapri spreads are scandalous on these pairs IMO.

1. NU - short @ 0.7195, SL @ 0.7130.

Take 50% profit @ FTA - 0.7185 and move SL to BE on reaminder.

2% of balance @ risk.

2. NJ - long @ 67.11 SL @ 66.70 - 2%

3. SGD / JPY - long @ 68.18 SL @ 67.95 - 2%

FTA @ 68.74, Second target 68.95 will take some profit and move rest to BE @ FTA

4. USD / NOK - short @ 5.8760, SL@ 5.9000 - 3% @ risk.

FTA @ 5.8520 take 2/3 profit and rest to BE.

5. G/CHF - short @ 1.6444 SL @ 1.6655 - 3% risk

FTA @ 1.6405, take 50% profit and mov rest to BE.

Decided not to take NU touch trade...price looks too bullish to me. Alerts set for NJ and SJ

Got in early on USD / NOK daily BEOB...the way I see it if the PPZ can hold then we should hea down so havea pensing order short to add @ the break of the BEOB

Got in early on G/CHF too...bit risky and not looking good.
Same on EG

Also decided to take A/CAD long ...if I was awake I would have got in earlier but decided that it looks like left eye will hold and thus price should reach the FTA...was long @ 0.9271 with SL@ 0.9230 TP @ 0.9300 on oanda.