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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,601
  • Edited 6:14am Apr 23, 2010 5:17am | Edited 6:14am
Now protecting 124.63 on the remaining 1/2 position, taking profit at 123.99. Now looking for another trade!

Edit: just changed to protect level to 124.58. Someone needs to wake up the GBP.
Edit: Square now at 39. Will revisit this if it breaks this st trend.
  • #14,602
  • Apr 23, 2010 6:09am Apr 23, 2010 6:09am
Quoting Fana
Dear friends
This was the great lesson and experience. It was "fighting with the market and junior trader's psychology"
Where in some moment faceing huge DD... and it was fend off.
From this perspective, this is worth milions....
...

. Happy trading to all and happy weekend.
Thank you to you.

We also learn with you.
The errors are unavoidable.

Have a nice week end.

Rgs,

T.
  • #14,603
  • Apr 23, 2010 7:15am Apr 23, 2010 7:15am
Quoting jest1081
my friend,
if you are referring to me, just say so. I dont like people being shady so please be direct.
Jest,

Pic was referring to me, but I would remind him that at the time Fana asked for help, he had already made the decision to rescue, tried something of a level 1 and was -60/70 pips in the hole.

The option of flipping was a mute point as the time for flipping had already passed, imho.

regards
  • #14,604
  • Apr 23, 2010 10:35am Apr 23, 2010 10:35am
The E/$ has squared up nicely with yesterday's move south with some good pips from 1.3318, maybe late entry but not going to complain. It may continue moving today but I am done for the day/week and we'll see what happens next week. Good trading everyone and have a good weekend.
  • #14,605
  • Edited 2:43pm Apr 23, 2010 11:02am | Edited 2:43pm
Hi Fana
You only try once the price monitoring "ticker" and not "graphologist".
You may notice a lot of things.

Regards
  • #14,606
  • Apr 24, 2010 6:39am Apr 24, 2010 6:39am
Quoting auxesis
Jest, I think you'll find your answer in here.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=882

Imho, the flip is done when positioning is small....
This is very important, i am still not sure if i have it... ?

Because when i see it... I would better prefer short positions to the corrective wave...
Short b, and d... ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,607
  • Apr 24, 2010 7:32am Apr 24, 2010 7:32am
Quoting Fana
This is very important, i am still not sure if i have it... ?

Because when i see it... I would better prefer short positions to the corrective wave...
Short b, and d... ?
Hi Fana,
Not sure what your question is here, but let me give you my view of your chart. The move 1-5 is tradable until it stops going up, which is clearly signaled by the 5-a move (if this is not clear then it will be shortly when you see the b-c move). Once you see this, wait for the 5-a move to end and if the a-b move does not clear out the 5 resistance point, you can start looking for a south move (I want to be in this first opportunity with a small position and a tight stop in mind). A very good entry place is the d point going south with a clear signal to get out it if the retracement move goes beyond the b or 5 resistance points.

Please note that I went through that without introducing any confusion with fibo and trend lines -- lol. Hope you are having a good weekend.
  • #14,608
  • Apr 24, 2010 8:06am Apr 24, 2010 8:06am
Quoting Fana
This is very important, i am still not sure if i have it... ?

Because when i see it... I would better prefer short positions to the corrective wave...
Short b, and d... ?
Anxieties ruled the day/week, and maybe even the month who knows.
As the OP and seniors here have pointed out, focus on your cost and trade the chart.

My 2c and regards all,
  • #14,609
  • Edited 9:48am Apr 24, 2010 9:23am | Edited 9:48am
Quoting Fana
This is very important, i am still not sure if i have it... ?

Because when i see it... I would better prefer short positions to the corrective wave...
Short b, and d... ?
Fana,

GE has some good points in his post.

Drop the Elliott counts, you will only confuse yourself trying to count the corrective waves, most of the times corrective waves will be a series of mixed up waves going counter-trend, it's too easy to mislabel them. This is where all the zig-zag- double-triple compound blah blah blah counts start to come in..... as the person who's counting gets their counts invalidated on each new progressive corrective wave.

Just know that " for the trend to be in effect, the correction can't go back past the start of the impulse."

What you need to focus on is when the corrective waves start to break back into the trend direction. That's where to enter in the trend direction or exit if your trading the correction.

You have been mistaking the second small wave of the correction as a trend change, not keeping the larger wave "TREND" in mind. and not exiting or flipping when the correction ends, instead trying to rescue against the following trend impulse.

You ain't looking at the charts objectively once you make up your mind to enter, as your more about being right in your decision.

regards,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,610
  • Apr 24, 2010 9:54am Apr 24, 2010 9:54am
Quoting auxesis
Fana,

GE has some good points in his post.

Drop the Elliott counts, you will only confuse yourself trying to count the corrective waves, most of the times corrective waves will be a series of mixed up waves going counter-trend, it's too easy to mislabel them. This is where all the zig-zag- double-triple compound blah blah blah counts start to come in..... as the person who's counting gets their counts invalidated on each new progressive corrective wave.

Just know that [b]" for the trend to be in effect, the correction can't go back past...
I completely agree with auxesis about not wave counting (stop counting and just read the charts), and about keeping a larger picture in mind. You can take what we both said in this context: my explanation works on any time frame, and his is the time frame above where mine works - trend with in trend stuff. For example, what I said is seen on the 1H chart, but the bigger picture that auxesis describes is on the 4H chart or Day chart. Keep both these ideas in mind because, as he said, once you commit with a trade, objectivity can be lost on those with less experience (and sometime with greater experience, too).
  • #14,611
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:02am Apr 24, 2010 10:02am
GEfx, Jackson101, Auxesis

Thank you. Very helpful. Regards

-wider perspective, timeframes, keep it simple...
  • #14,612
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:16pm Apr 24, 2010 3:16pm
Quoting Fana
GEfx, Jackson101, Auxesis

Thank you. Very helpful. Regards

-wider perspective, timeframes, keep it simple...
" ... greeting from ambulance"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #14,613
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:26pm Apr 24, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting Gro
" ... greeting from ambulance"
I'm sorry but I don't understand.
  • #14,614
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:33pm Apr 24, 2010 3:33pm
Quoting GEfx
I'm sorry but I don't understand.
What specifically do not understand?
  • #14,615
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:44pm Apr 24, 2010 3:44pm
Quoting Gro
What specifically do not understand?
The contribution you are making with your post.
  • #14,616
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:55pm Apr 24, 2010 3:55pm
Quoting GEfx
The contribution you are making with your post.
My opinion for trade.Maybe I missed something in yours posts?
  • #14,617
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:10pm Apr 24, 2010 4:10pm
Quoting Gro
My opinion for trade.Maybe I missed something in yours posts?
OK, must be me -- lol. Never mind.
  • #14,618
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:17pm Apr 24, 2010 4:17pm
Quoting GEfx
OK, must be me -- lol. Never mind.
sorry it's midnight here but Fana is too "fierce" (sorry Fana)
Good night GEfx
  • #14,619
  • Apr 24, 2010 4:46pm Apr 24, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting Gro
sorry it's midnight here but Fana is too "fierce" (sorry Fana)
Good night GEfx
No worries, I am still tired from this past week and need a good night's sleep, too. Have a good night and we'll get back to Fana tomorrow -- lol and no offense Fana!
  • #14,620
  • Edited 8:04pm Apr 24, 2010 7:30pm | Edited 8:04pm
Quoting Gro
" ... greeting from ambulance"
Gro, I do not understand your comparison between the market direction, "you emphasize the direction" and time. If your referencing time at all in Dimension?

edit: after reviewing I think I understand.......... if the market trend is up, you are biased long, regardless of correction
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