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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #222,361
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:35pm Apr 23, 2010 2:35pm
she'd make a good fund manager, i can see she's already got the skills now try to see if she can also sell that package... that would make her perfect.

Quoting Geppy
It's true... I had a first date with a girl last night and instead of bringing her flowers I packaged up some poo, wrapped with a pink bow of other poo and she loved it!
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #222,362
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:59pm Apr 23, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting giebrail
arghhhhhhh ... i can't read the chart bull>bear>bull>bear ... blurrr ...
Today's action was pretty easy if you don't have a bias. Keep in mind everyone has been talking about being short. Look at Beljevina's chart above. It has the road map. See that green daily bar over on the right side of the chart. Look at that then look at the 15min bars that make up the daily bar. See the open on the daily, then it traded down to the lows. Now the good part, On the 15 min see that congestion around 143.74 then break out up it upwards? That caused price to go higher than the open. At that moment bulls are cheering and will try to jam it more (hence the big breakout bar) and almost every trader that entered a short today is underwater and starting to wet their pants because today is the last trading day of the week and the smart traders know it could gap up whatever amount on Sunday and it's just not worth the risk, so they close their shorts which leads to more upside.
Without a trade plan, say bye bye to your account & hello to frustration.
  • #222,363
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:14pm Apr 23, 2010 3:14pm
Quoting PipinStein
Today's action was pretty easy if you don't have a bias. Keep in mind everyone has been talking about being short. Look at Beljevina's chart above. It has the road map....
Spot on. VSA shows the dips being bought. Just like 2 Friday's ago, where the Sunday 5pm EST open was 100+ pips above the Friday close, I bet we'll see something similar this Sunday. It's manipulation in overdrive, and my crystal ball fib chart of a couple of posts ago is starting to look more like a fact ... chances are this will be the mode of operation right up until just after May 6 ... I'll have to do some research, but I don't think there's been too many market crashes over the decades during this the late spring & summer periods ... who knows how overdone/overshot things could get ... just remember: the higher it goes, the better the shorting opportunities!
  • #222,364
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:24pm Apr 23, 2010 3:24pm
What is VSA? New to board and this post. What is the deal with a crash? are we looking at a some new on May 6 that could impact pair in big way?

Quoting Beljevina
Spot on. VSA shows the dips being bought. Just like 2 Friday's ago, where the Sunday 5pm EST open was 100+ pips above the Friday close, I bet we'll see something similar this Sunday. It's manipulation in overdrive, and my crystal ball fib chart of a couple of posts ago is starting to look more like a fact ... chances are this will be the mode of operation right up until just after May 6 ... I'll have to do some research, but I don't think there's been too many market crashes over the decades during this the late spring & summer periods...
  • #222,365
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:26pm Apr 23, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting USD-Bear
Short @ 144.06
SL @ 145.2
TP open

Looks likes UJ's upmove had it
Closed up @ 144.6
New week new chances...........
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #222,366
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:26pm Apr 23, 2010 3:26pm
Quoting FnickB
What is VSA? New to board and this post. What is the deal with a crash? are we looking at a some new on May 6 that could impact pair in big way?

VSA is volume spread analysis. There is a trading thread for it on the board.
  • #222,367
  • Apr 23, 2010 3:45pm Apr 23, 2010 3:45pm
Quoting FnickB
What is the deal with a crash?
As much as I'd like to think it has any meaning it's just low liquidity trading right now. My broker's spread is about twice as big as it usually is right now. Everyone is gone for the weekend (except us apparently) and it's just a meaningless volatile move.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #222,368
  • Apr 23, 2010 4:46pm Apr 23, 2010 4:46pm
Quoting FnickB
What is VSA? New to board and this post. What is the deal with a crash? are we looking at a some new on May 6 that could impact pair in big way?
VSA Has huge meaning, and can be a incredible supplementary tool to trading; basically, you can deduce buying and selling at price move fringes, and get in the right trend direction. With decent liquidity provider volume, VSA allows you to look at bars and identify them as attempts to go higher, no supply/demand, etc. and for long feel there are (hidden) buyers, that testing of the currect PA is underway, that no supply is available, that a shakeout is underway and price is likely to reach higher, until prominent selling surfaces: selling interpretation is similar, but reversed of course.

In the words of Malcolm, get Mastering the Markets by Tom Williams, read the 469 pages here, and no, I'm not kidding, assuming you want to increase your profitability.

And May 6, is the UK election. Fear of a hung parliament should be bearish for sterling, but the overal mix of sentiment and results outcome should have potential to significantly move the pound.
  • #222,369
  • Apr 23, 2010 5:58pm Apr 23, 2010 5:58pm
thanks Cod, I'll check into it.

Quoting Cod
VSA is volume spread analysis. There is a trading thread for it on the board.
  • #222,370
  • Apr 23, 2010 7:01pm Apr 23, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
This is looking like a very very nice short setup if price does not go higher than 145.03. As long as this high isn't breached, then the extreme resistance daily ema 200 still holds. If it can't go up, then there's only one other way to go. Previous two rejections of the daily ema 200 resulted in 1000+ pips drop. I would short here 144.60 if it weren't Friday but I don't like holding positions over the weekend. I will look to short comes Sunday when the market opens. Hopefully there won't be a gap down, if gap down then I'll wait for gap to close...

I think actually the gap could be uptrend....then retrace and finally dip down yes around 1200 pips....

i know by now that sounds crazy
  • #222,371
  • Apr 23, 2010 7:52pm Apr 23, 2010 7:52pm
Beljevina, Thank you for info, link and suggestions. do you think the VSA basics will be a sufficient read? Or does it miss important areas and concepts?
  • #222,372
  • Apr 23, 2010 8:59pm Apr 23, 2010 8:59pm
Quoting FnickB
Beljevina, Thank you for info, link and suggestions. do you think the VSA basics will be a sufficient read? Or does it miss important areas and concepts?
Not sure how to answer that. The first page of the thread gives you a very good overview, understanding it is another thing, and applying it in practice is a higher level IMHO. Frankly, in forex you should be prepared to absorb and understand as much information as is humanely possible ... it's not a memorize and cram for an exam type of thing that we used to do in school, and you're then done. Really depends on how serious you are about understanding something, making money, and being as successful as possible at it.
  • #222,373
  • Apr 24, 2010 2:47am Apr 24, 2010 2:47am
"Don't worry it will not hit 145 or I'm gonna be Raza student" said Mush...
Man I miss his post soo much... hahaha....

still counting how many bear warrior in this thread? or everyone becomiing bull warrior?
row row row your boat
  • #222,374
  • Apr 24, 2010 3:48am Apr 24, 2010 3:48am
still bear honestly, holding until 145.60, i have belief in 145 resistance. also short on gbp/chf.
  • #222,375
  • Apr 24, 2010 6:57am Apr 24, 2010 6:57am
ok ill start first !!! and i want the rest to follow

first off look at my chart and look closely at those 2 setups i shown on the chart..its MIRROR IMAGE !! right to the pip ,even count the candles.its unbeleivable !! if you study those 2 setups and look closely .

we are right now on monthly chart in broadly sideways bear flag for aonther 6 to 10 monthly candles between 130 and 146-151 and then you will see the last leg was 3300 pips from the breakout of the bear flag ,and then up all the way !!! but that dont bother us right now... we need to get the top and bottom of the bear flag ,and we are close to the top..
as you can see on the prev bear flag at the beginning that we had 2 up candles on monthly and then 1 candle down to bottom of bear flag ,then 4 caNDLES up to the top and then 2 down to bottom... SO WE ARE IN APRIL AND WE ARE BUSY WITH THE 2ND UP CANDLE IN BEARFLAG ,,SO MY PREDICTION IS THAT WE WILL HAVE A FULL ON MONTHLY CANDLE DOWN IN MAY TO BOTTOM OF FLAG ,MOST LIKELY 130 level,,then we will have 4 up candles to the top of the flag to 148-151 level ,where ever ..so all what we can do for the next borrring 8 months is to play this sideways bear flag from top to bottom and vice verca and we all wait for the next breakout from flag for 3000 pips and that will take us to the 100 level most likely ..

so what i can say is that we are close of the top and may month will be a down month and that is UK elections ..

study those 2 setups closely and trade according to that..

its only history that may repeat ..
so for me to look for any bulls signs is OUT ,i will look for a bear setup in may ,,my big guess is @ 146.60 level and hold to the bottom of flag 130-135 somewhere !!

pandora box ,Quecee im waiitng for your posts !!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy 2010 setup.jpg Size: 102 KB
  • #222,376
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:01am Apr 24, 2010 10:01am
before i take off for the week-end, i wanted to post this chart.
it is the volume profile for the entire rally from 131.99: the most intense traded area is 143.73/35. i am thinking at 2 scenarios:
1. it is distribution, and in this case price will break to the downside in the near future.
2. it is just another consolidation, and in this case we should see a break to the upside - while this area will turn into significant support.

keep in mind that we are at important resistance here, even if charts look bullish.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: g-j_swing-profile.gif Size: 19 KB
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #222,377
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:21am Apr 24, 2010 10:21am
Quoting Scrat
before i take off for the week-end, i wanted to post this chart.
it is the volume profile for the entire rally from 131.99: the most intense traded area is 143.73/35. i am thinking at 2 scenarios:
1. it is distribution, and in this case price will break to the downside in the near future.
2. it is just another consolidation, and in this case we should see a break to the upside - while this area will turn into significant support.

keep in mind that we are at important resistance here, even if charts look bullish.

Awesome chart, someday I would like to get learned on how those work myself.
  • #222,378
  • Apr 24, 2010 10:34am Apr 24, 2010 10:34am
im seeing this as an inverted h/s despite all the negative news ( and yes it is messing with my head ) ta tells me we are bull :nerd:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily inverted 1.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #222,379
  • Apr 24, 2010 11:51am Apr 24, 2010 11:51am
i see a doji in the hourly chart my call that the price will go south at monday .
  • #222,380
  • Apr 24, 2010 12:01pm Apr 24, 2010 12:01pm
Quoting Zztop
i see a doji in the hourly chart my call that the price will go south at monday .
what about the possible gap up ?
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