Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

I may be deranged, but when the GY PA is as well, and TA isn't working as it traditionally has, I try to get imaginative. I won't repeat some of the reasons I'm leaning towards more upside, but GY just doesn't look like it's prepping to go back to 132/118 just yet.

We know the left side fib from 163 to 132 is spot on, and received much respect during it's consolidation & distribution phases from the 23.6% to 61.8% range. We could similarly be in a consolidation phase now - that's the predictive fib on the right hand side of the chart, along with an estimate for a visit to 151/153 by quarter end. The 141/2 zone seems major support to me, and seems to have trajectory powers to launch GY 700/800 pips. One can play with the upper end of the predictive fib, and even decreasing the top end from 153 to 149 makes for a great fit against already accomplished PA.

Combined with the pre-election optimism, prowess of equity indexes, GJ reaching another 400 pips (149) or 800 pips (153), esp. when 132 was 1100/1300 pips ago, makes for a believable fib placement.

....just read this rumour from a pal who works in London.

*Bunds: street talk- apparently Greek banks are bidding their own market on the open this morning- speculation is it's the last desperate attempt.*

Good everning all, Just saw your post. Btw can i know what it mean and effect the GJ for this news? I'm not so understand what it means?

It means Greek banks are trying desperately to avoid the inevitable.
IMF will be getting a call on Monday.

Missed this yesterday, but PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Co) – the largest debt-bond manager – pretty much showed the world where they think money should now be going. East.

They did not trouble themselves with the Greek bond issue – and who can blame them, I’ve ranted about this and other non-chart specific ruminations in previous posts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5962

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5882

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5793

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=5636

…and one has to ask why. Why would the world’s largest debt-bond manager effectively kill the Greek sale, if it did not have alternative strategies that would produce better yields? My guess is that they know that Western capital growth is stuck in a stagnant pool, and that this quagmire is only going to become more pungent with time.

The East (baring Japan), offers a far better potential for return, with less regulation upon business practice and growth, negligible – compared to the West - environmental impact concerns, and ridiculously cheap, and also expendable, employees. Forget social mores and ethics, I spend a lot of time working in the emerging economies, and the dollar is king, and nobody gives a rat’s arse about anything else. Choose the cheapest country to invest in, build the infrastructure necessary to maximise profit extraction from the country, run profit through complex tax-avoidance offshores, and then up sticks and move into the next country offering even cheaper extraction – been going on for years, and one wonders where this will stop as big business is running out of new countries.

Back to PIMCO. Having no faith in Greece, is having no faith in the Euro zone, which is comparable to stating no faith in the Euro. PIMCO are advising investors to put their money in places such as Russia and Egypt. Bloody hell, these are not exactly countries that one can call paragons of ethical fortitude and democratic virtue. Yes, I know money does not recognize anything other than profit, but still…

As I am sure we all know, there has been a 20+ year shift of investment from the West to the East, and most in the West have been ignorant of this… expecting ever-lasting growth and prosperity. This mindset – it would seem from current writings by many lauded commentators – is in for a shock over the next ten years or so. Of course, these things are always gradual, but the day will come when the general observer will suddenly ask themselves, ‘Dear me, what the hell has happened?’

It’s funny to think of the preconceived notions of the ‘traditional’ West;

The UK still believing that it has muscle in the world, with its citizens only now beginning to realize that all the revenue generated through tax etcetera has been frittered away.

The US beginning to understand that one cannot have continuous wealth creation.

Europe believing that expansion is the key to becoming a great trading bloc – utter piffle that a lot of its citizens are realizing, but not able through denial of referendum, the opportunity to public state as such.



A list of why big money is getting the hell out of the ‘traditional’ West could be given, but it would be long, and we all know the core reasons.

Suffice it to say, if my depressive world-view ruminations hold true, long-term positions in Gold are looking tasty, and along with that, and if correlation holds, the Aussie Dollar. I also like the Yen, which is slowly parking itself in Eastern nations. All we need now is for the Chinese to offload their dollar reserve over the next ten years. Of course, my mini-essays are mainly speculation, and pale in comparison to the erudite writings of those who do know what they are talking about. And like many contributors, expectations are often scuppered by political intervention that seeks to maintain a balance of current situation… the worst kind of control in my opinion as everything eventually breaks; better to allow something to break in stages that can be adapted to, as opposed to a sudden collapse that one cannot get out of the way of.

Thanks for the explanation. Today friday, crazy day again

if after 3 days in a row with bad news gbp goes up today , i will freak out !!
hope they know reading GDP... 142.80 will be seen and broken if not this would be extra fishy !

gbp/chf drop like a bomb!!

every pairs drops like crazy except Geppy.... why why why?!?

they keep the best for last !

Stop shorting and it will drop like hell

Hurry up EVERYBODY, buy JPY!!!!!!

we need one 4 hour candle direct flight close below 142.60 . done!! ..we dont want 1 hour candles drop pip for pip to 142.60 ,,then it start slowly to base around 142 for a move upwards ..

. . . am thinking of shorting gbpjpy now

Tanking needs a ceremony where the GBP/JPY is going to slide its own belly with a sharpy hara kiri and flop dead...

141.00

139.25

133.52

lets see if this last 72 hours of charts and news will do what we think

good luck to everyone !

Divergence seems Bullish on Daily+ 4 Hr...

not over here by me !

seems bullish trend has weakened. 4 hr candle previous became a bear candle...

It seems Hidden Bullish with Increasing VOLUME on 4 Hr.. 6 mins to Close Candle..

Lets see how it closes...

Woke up late (I needed a lie in) had breakfast, and switched on my computer....guess what, no change in GBPJPY....Mmmmm.

I really don't like the looks of this. Something's gonna happen on early Monday morning in Tokyo.

1. Lots of bad UK news, but it remains at 143.50 ish.
2. Seems to fly in the face of technicals.
3. Leaving it until Friday/weekend AND a Oz bank holiday.
4. IMF in Greece (has a deal being done as we speak? Announcements on Sunday before markets open etc..) on Monday
5. ....
6 ....
....und so weiter

So, in my honest opinion, anyone who leaves positions open over the weekend is gambling (but we still have NY to open to confirm). The best probability is it's going short. I'm leaving it until London Closes (although I may scalp) to decide the following:

1. Remain out of any GY trades until it's clear what's happening.
2. Place a sell entry order in, but not sure what price (I feel this may be risky above 142)