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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #141
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:02pm Apr 21, 2010 5:02pm
Quoting amyc
It doesn't have to happen all in one day, at the rate this pair moves lately it will probably take the rest of the week, but yes my charts say that bar should finish to the downside.

Also I suspect it may get a helping hand from the index markets on Thursday.
Understood. I have added again at 9284 (Weekly Pivot).
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #142
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:08pm Apr 21, 2010 6:08pm
I have placed sell orders for eu at 1.3435 SL 1.3455 and TP 1.3340.

I want to see if price will move back up 80 pips into the green midpoints after hitting the lows on Wednesday and bouncing. If it just moves straight down then thats ok too as i'm still holding 10 shorts from 1.35
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #143
  • Edited 7:25pm Apr 21, 2010 6:44pm | Edited 7:25pm
Aud daily

As long as price can get itself a 4hr close below 9257 today then I see shorts being very good to us over the next 2 weeks. Currently the setup should take us down into next weeks lows which are 9160 at the moment but if price continues down for the next 2 days that will be much lower by Fridays close.
I think from there that should take us down into May lows, currently these are 9146 but with some down movement during the next 7 trading days till May starts should push these targets closer to 90.

Lets see how the rest of the week plays out, an open next week below the weekly pp and we'll know this is on track.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 16 KB
  • #144
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:02pm Apr 21, 2010 10:02pm
The down move in the aud is under threat, so far today it has bounced off the daily lows at 9248 and now had a 4hr close above the 4hr midpoint. That is bullish and usually leads to higher prices. If it goes above 9280 I will look at lowering my exposure.
  • #145
  • Apr 21, 2010 10:13pm Apr 21, 2010 10:13pm
I have decided to close out 10 of my aud shorts at 9269 +60 pips.
still holding 13 incase it decides to continue down. (I hope that is not an unlucky number).
  • #146
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:17am Apr 22, 2010 4:17am
hello Amy,

I see you like bar chart... how do you analyse it but you prediction always great shot
  • #147
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:48pm Apr 22, 2010 3:48pm
Eu reached April lows at 1.3255 on Thursday. I haven't taken any profit out here yet bc other charts indicate lower lows today and there is still a quarterley and yearly pattern that should bring this market down lower yet.

If price was to swing back up from here on Friday and then open next week above the weekly pp then this would indicate that this was a temporary low for now and that price is going to swing up into May highs which are currently 1.3623. I don't see this happening though I see price moving down further.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #148
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:52pm Apr 22, 2010 3:52pm
Quoting $Money$
hello Amy,

I see you like bar chart... how do you analyse it but you prediction always great shot
Hi Money

Yes I use bars not candles, I analyse it by using just support and resistance nothing else.
  • #149
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:52pm Apr 22, 2010 4:52pm
I have decided to close half of my short eu position at 1.3220
+285 pips *5 contracts.
  • #150
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:53pm Apr 22, 2010 4:53pm
Quoting amyc
I have decided to close half of my short eu position at 1.3220
+285 pips *5 contracts.
Nice!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #151
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:56pm Apr 22, 2010 4:56pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Nice!
yeah I only wish the S&P would behave half as well as the euro
  • #152
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:08pm Apr 22, 2010 6:08pm
Aud should move down into 9224 on Friday, this is the daily lows and also an 80 pip bar bottom. If it can trade below this level this is good for bears.
Still holding shorts from 9332 and if there is a weak close on Friday I will hold them into next weeks lows.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #153
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:44pm Apr 22, 2010 6:44pm
EU weekly chart.
Next target down for eu is 1.3128, this is Q2 lows and it's possible that there could be a substantial bounce from here. Or it could just do what it did in Q1 and blast straight through them as there is a bigger target at 1.26 which is still pulling it lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 19 KB
  • #154
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:20pm Apr 22, 2010 10:20pm
Current price action in the aud is looking promising for bears, below the daily lows at 9224 and now a 4 hr close below the 4hr midpoint, this should continue down on Friday and into Sundays lows.
  • #155
  • Apr 23, 2010 2:55am Apr 23, 2010 2:55am
short eu at 1.3344 SL 1.3350. target open. If it can get past 1.3322 it should be good. Will post chart later on.
  • #156
  • Apr 23, 2010 6:40am Apr 23, 2010 6:40am
Quoting amyc
short eu at 1.3344 SL 1.3350. target open. If it can get past 1.3322 it should be good. Will post chart later on.
wow you picked the top almost to the pip there... amazing accuracy !!!
  • #157
  • Apr 24, 2010 2:11am Apr 24, 2010 2:11am
Quoting bravester
wow you picked the top almost to the pip there... amazing accuracy !!!
For awhile....stopped out at 1.3350 on the move back up.
Charts below show the 80 pip top with pink support at 1.3344 was what I was trading off.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 18 KB
  • #158
  • Apr 24, 2010 2:17am Apr 24, 2010 2:17am
I am looking at 3 possibilities for EU this week

1) price opens on Sunday below the weekly pp but then moves up into 1.3429 area before selling down, I will short here if that is the case.

2) Price opens above the weekly pp if this happens then I will look for longs to trade up into the weekly highs at 1.3528.

3) could just open under the weekly pp and fall, if that happens i will have to chase price for an entry which will not be good.

Based on the position of the dollar index I think that option 1 is most likely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 23 KB
  • #159
  • Edited 2:36am Apr 24, 2010 2:24am | Edited 2:36am
Aud

The strong bounce off the support on Friday has temporarily negated any bearishness. Aud should move up into the weekly highs at 9343 this week as long as it opens above the weekly pp. If that happens then from there probably up to Q2 highs at 9409. This will be major resistance. I will be closing my shorts on Sunday and looking for longs.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 21 KB
  • #160
  • Apr 24, 2010 2:33am Apr 24, 2010 2:33am
I posted I was looking for a reversal pattern on the S&P starting Thursday 15th, it was playing out perfectly until Wednesday last week when it didn't move down far enough. On Thursday and Friday this failed completely. Friday there was a weekly close above the April highs (1195)so it will continue up into May(1231 at this stage). I still believe it will fall big sometime in Q2 or Q3 as long as it doesn't trade above 1254 but for now I will be looking for longs again to trade higher for probably the next 2 weeks.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S&P.GIF Size: 25 KB
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