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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #222,181
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:52pm Apr 22, 2010 4:52pm
What worries me and my short bias and short positions is that a buy Put at 145 is more cheaper that the buy call at 143 ..so futures atm are betting up... i am still betting their wrong but just in case i bought a call 145 next month expiry just for hedge
  • #222,182
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:55pm Apr 22, 2010 4:55pm
yes, something huge is going to happen soon and big boys had to clear play field.
check out this chart and compare what happened when price hit both upper and lower limit of range:
- upper limit, bounced down first on high volume; then now, we're there again BUT on low volume.
- lower, it was a bounce on very high volume.

a break through upper limit should have happened by now, and it should have been on high volume. not exactly what we see here.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #222,183
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:57pm Apr 22, 2010 4:57pm
OK, I'll admit I have no idea where this beast is going. It's caught me out a few times now. So, if in doubt look to history, as we all know, it tends to repeat itself

An old technique I used a few years ago but haven't really done so since moving from MT4 is using EMA with fibonacci numbers 89,144,233.

So here's 2 charts, one from November last year and one from now. To me there's a very similar style. Notice the EMAs and how they seem to match.

SORRY, I cut off the indicator details off...I'm tired and want to go sleepies!

EMA 89 = Blue
EMA 144 = Red
EMA 233 = Green

What you think? History repeating itself.
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  • #222,184
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:18pm Apr 22, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting Jake Snake
OK, I'll admit I have no idea where this beast is going. It's caught me out a few times now. So, if in doubt look to history, as we all know, it tends to repeat itself

An old technique I used a few years ago but haven't really done so since moving from MT4 is using EMA with fibonacci numbers 89,144,233.

So here's 2 charts, one from November last year and one from now. To me there's a very similar style. Notice the EMAs and how they seem to match.

SORRY, I cut off the indicator details off...I'm tired and want to go sleepies!

EMA...
from your historical charts PA shall be ranging at the current level with lesser volume and lower range until distribution accomplished and exhausted (we must see PA stalled before the fall)
  • #222,185
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:18pm Apr 22, 2010 5:18pm
Quoting Scrat
yes, something huge is going to happen soon and big boys had to clear play field.
check out this chart and compare what happened when price hit both upper and lower limit of range:
- upper limit, bounced down first on high volume; then now, we're there again BUT on low volume.
- lower, it was a bounce on very high volume.

a break through upper limit should have happened by now, and it should have been on high volume. not exactly what we see here.
I suspect the lower volumes seen at the more recent top have more to do with the time of day rather than any buyers stepping out.

The fact we're dealing with JPY cross is confusing matters I think. Sterling itself needs to become weak before we can see 'proper' drops.

I think tomorrow's gunna be a wild ride for GY. 2 big moves, one up and one down. Just need to know which one is first.
  • #222,186
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:19pm Apr 22, 2010 5:19pm
this pattern disturb me alot ,,dont know what you guys think of it,,if its useless to look at ,,or worth it .. and 70% it break as a contniueation..

what if we go str8 to 145.30 and drop from there,,then im sure it must be a valid pattern to follow ? but then we can have 3 legs down at the bottom line of the triangle ? or only a partial decline to 50% fib?..

i was thinking the same idea what Quecee say about set a stop and price alert for short and forget ..but then what if we go to 145.30 and retrace only a partial to 50% fib at 142 ,,then its not worth it to do ..143.80 is 180 pips away from 142 ,,so ill rather cut again losses and wait for a better option 144.50/ 145.30 to short and keep watching that 142 level ..

and im not even mention the usd/jpy that i see 98 is coming ..i dont know ..

any comments about this pattern if we can say its valid or not?
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  • #222,187
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:28pm Apr 22, 2010 5:28pm
Quoting fullhouse
this pattern disturb me alot ,,dont know what you guys think of it,,if its useless to look at ,,or worth it .. and 70% it break as a contniueation..

what if we go str8 to 145.30 and drop from there,,then im sure it must be a valid pattern to follow ? but then we can have 3 legs down at the bottom line of the triangle ? or only a partial decline to 50% fib?..

i was thinking the same idea what Quecee say about set a stop and price alert for short and forget ..but then what if we go to 145.30 and...
That is close to my intuition of what the lords may be planning. I do see a bigger drop though before gj goes too far above the utl made last may.

Maybe 146 sparks a bear down to 139, then on up to the 150's where ultimately the big dropping correction will resume.

Just wild speculation but I like to have a wild speculation in the back of my mind to draw upon for inspiration.

One thing that keeps my thinking on sterling though is that London has the 2012 Olympics and I presume there is going to be some demand for pounds related to that activity.

Maybe the mother of all corrections happens sometime after the Olympics.
  • #222,188
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:30pm Apr 22, 2010 5:30pm
and if you look at the eur/jpy ..it looks like a bull flag and it pointed upwards on daily and above ?
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  • #222,189
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:37pm Apr 22, 2010 5:37pm
Quoting fullhouse
this pattern disturb me alot ,,dont know what you guys think of it,,if its useless to look at ,,or worth it .. and 70% it break as a contniueation..

.....


any comments about this pattern if we can say its valid or not?
That's a very similar chart conclusion I came up with yesterday, see post #221846

I've closed all positions in GBPJPY, I ain't taking any chances at the moment.
  • #222,190
  • Apr 22, 2010 5:41pm Apr 22, 2010 5:41pm
hey guys, long time no see
Making money not by predicting just by following ...
  • #222,191
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:15pm Apr 22, 2010 6:15pm
Quoting quecee5
I'm with you and said the same thing. . . Makes no sense anymore. . . Throw all charts, computer indi's out the window. . .

But looks to me like classic distribution and something "big" is in the making and I think we we head south in a big way. . .

Hi Queece.

I am as much surprised by todays PA as anyone else is.

 

  1. Greece's yeilds widened to record levels 573 bps
  2. Moody's downgraded greece AGAIN today
  3. Poor UK numbers yesterday and today
  4. Poor US unemployment numbers
  5. Poor earnings from cococola, pepsi, verizon,ebay today

In spite of all this DOW rallied into positive territory from being down -100.

Do you remember the capitulation dive from 126 to 118 on GBPYEN . UJ was fiercely defended at level of 90 due to huge payout for option expiry for 3-4 days. It was speculated that few yards of money was used to defend that option strike.once the cut for option barrier was finished at newyork open/london close, they removed the defending capital, the flood gates opened and uj tanked from 90 to 87.11 in matter of 1 hour-- thats 300 pips of UJ in 1 hour taking GJ to tank with it . GY tanked about 500-700 pips in 1 hours.

I smell a similar manipulation again.

The 93.00 handle is being defended for option strike . one expired today at newyork open and there is another large payout if uj remains above 93.00 handle tomorrow. I have a feeling thats once the time passes for the above cut, we will see the actual movement in UJ and GJ.

More the earning from microsoft and amazon will hurt DOW tomorrow. so I have a feeling that all will happen tomorrow in US session esp after newyork open but need to be aware of a spike with release of UK GDP number.

Hope this helps. It is only speculation at this point and i am positioned for it. Lets see how markets plays the retail traders tomorrow.

After the market is already rigged.

  • #222,192
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:25pm Apr 22, 2010 6:25pm
Quoting iksh
Hi Queece.

I am as much surprised by todays PA as anyone else is.

 

  1. Greece's yeilds widened to record levels 573 bps
  2. Moody's downgraded greece AGAIN today
  3. Poor UK numbers yesterday and today
  4. Poor US unemployment numbers
  5. Poor earnings from cococola, pepsi, verizon,ebay today

In spite of all this DOW rallied into positive territory from being down -100.

Do you remember the capitulation dive from 126 to 118 on GBPYEN . UJ was fiercely defended at level of 90 due to huge payout for option expiry for 3-4 days. It was speculated...

Really wouldn't be surprised if that was the case. Remember ANZAC day Holiday for AUS and NZ on Monday and since they're the first markets that open (or don't open in this case) what better time to make a really big move.
  • #222,193
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:33pm Apr 22, 2010 6:33pm
Quoting iksh
Hi Queece.

I am as much surprised by todays PA as anyone else is.

 

  1. Greece's yeilds widened to record levels 573 bps
  2. Moody's downgraded greece AGAIN today
  3. Poor UK numbers yesterday and today
  4. Poor US unemployment numbers
  5. Poor earnings from cococola, pepsi, verizon,ebay today

In spite of all this DOW rallied into positive territory from being down -100.

Do you remember the capitulation dive from 126 to 118 on GBPYEN . UJ was fiercely defended at level of 90 due to huge payout for option expiry for 3-4 days. It was speculated...

nice post !
  • #222,194
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:50pm Apr 22, 2010 6:50pm
Well. . .

Looks like distribution at it's finest and sometimes you must go with experience and your gut. . . PA wasn't making technical or logical sense I expect we will see additional lower price before the NY session who will buy any low made overnight. . .

Stay tuned as we chop away. and lets see what this market has for us in this and the London session because it's obvious they have an agenda to fill. . .
  • #222,195
  • Apr 22, 2010 6:59pm Apr 22, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting quecee5
Well. . .

Looks like distribution at it's finest and sometimes you must go with experience and your gut. . . PA wasn't making technical or logical sense I expect we will see additional lower price before the NY session who will buy any low made overnight. . .

Stay tuned as we chop away. and lets see what this market has for us in this and the London session because it's obvious they have an agenda to fill. . .
Quecee can you maybe share your targets for down under ? and do you still see 150 and above after 130-137 ?
  • #222,196
  • Apr 22, 2010 7:04pm Apr 22, 2010 7:04pm
Quoting fullhouse
Quecee can you maybe share your targets for down under ? and do you still see 150 and above after 130-137 ?
If we manage to get some momentum a reasonable target I see is 142.50 then 141.80/50 and if it holds then back up and 151 is the target eventually - if not then a test of the low 139.40 then 138.50 and if that break say hello to 137/136.50 and lastly 135. . .
  • #222,197
  • Apr 22, 2010 7:23pm Apr 22, 2010 7:23pm
chart with target 124,80 in eur/jpy
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  • #222,198
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:01pm Apr 22, 2010 8:01pm
Quoting fullhouse
and if you look at the eur/jpy ..it looks like a bull flag and it pointed upwards on daily and above ?
Gucc, try drawing this differently. I won't redraw it but if you take the lower trend line from the bottom and draw an up trend channel you could see a bear flag... the most recent move up would be a retest of the bottom trend line channel as resistance which would set us up for the next leg down.

Just a different view.
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  • #222,199
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:03pm Apr 22, 2010 8:03pm
Quoting iksh

The 93.00 handle is being defended for option strike . one expired today at newyork open and there is another large payout if uj remains above 93.00 handle tomorrow. I have a feeling thats once the time passes for the above cut, we will see the actual movement in UJ and GJ.
Great post! My only qualm is that we were trading below 93.00 I believe yesterday. Now, I'm no options expert but once a barrier is broken options can be exercised, correct? Are you assuming we didn't trade enough below 93.00 for anyone to exercise yet?
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  • #222,200
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:08pm Apr 22, 2010 8:08pm
Quoting quecee5
If we manage to get some momentum a reasonable target I see is 142.50 then 141.80/50 and if it holds then back up and 151 is the target eventually - if not then a test of the low 139.40 then 138.50 and if that break say hello to 137/136.50 and lastly 135. . .
and just started for 142-141 test area. Break 143 then go...
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