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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #222,161
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:04pm Apr 22, 2010 3:04pm
Quoting Scrat
lol i was about to post same thing. let's see where it wants to go
scrat can you pls post that volume chart of your distrubution ..if you dont mind of the last 2-3 days on 1 hour chart
  • #222,162
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:06pm Apr 22, 2010 3:06pm
I am also short. I want ask senior traders here for their opinion on where GY may go from here. I have stops above 144.20 (recent highs). Regarding risk events - there is another poll on upcoming UK election later today and UK GDP at 8:30am GMT. If you are aware of any other risk events for tonight (US time), please be so kind as to add them. Thanks so much for your help! It's really good to observe this thread.
  • #222,163
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:10pm Apr 22, 2010 3:10pm
here. roller coaster...

Quoting fullhouse
scrat can you pls post that volume chart of your distrubution ..if you dont mind of the last 2-3 days on 1 hour chart
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #222,164
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:11pm Apr 22, 2010 3:11pm
Getting mad for this PA. 144 is definitely nice place to short which all of us overlook
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #222,165
  • Edited 4:08pm Apr 22, 2010 3:20pm | Edited 4:08pm
Be careful shorting this puppy ... lots of evidence that it doesn't want to go down ... yen weakness, candle wick things, volume buying at those lower levels, higher highs & refusals to go down, combined with manipulation, will make this thing a bear killer. Sterling may become the hopeful sibling while the euro is pushed off the cliff ... just a thought. Charts to come later ...
  • #222,166
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:46pm Apr 22, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting Geppy
this PA is just absurd.
I think this is quite obvious. geppy stays below daily EMA200 if close to much because of JPY weakness they punish GBP and vice versa , crossing the EMA200 would be clear signal for targets way above 175. I dont think that is possible for now...

GBP and EUR zone economics are in very bad shape so there is no point to buy currencies but have look here across the ocean...

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/thu...cks-2010-04-22

Well so yen got hard times.. we have to wait for correlation bad news about earnings and economy factors.

Anyway how absurd is share price of this company http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/NFLX

Do u remember 2000 "dot.com" bubble ?
wait for it history likes to repeat itself
  • #222,167
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:47pm Apr 22, 2010 3:47pm
Quoting Beljevina
Be careful shorting this puppy ... lots of evidence that it doesn't want to go down ... yen strength, candle wick things, volume buying at those lower levels, higher highs & refusals to go down, combined with manipulation, will make this thing a bear killer. Sterling may become the hopeful sibling while the euro is pushed off the cliff ... just a thought. Charts to come later ...
Yes, the bulls definatly answered the h4 doji delima they were having.

144 is basically at the utl since april/may of last year, looks like the daily h4 and weekly are ready to challenge it pretty hard.

No matter where it goes I feel quite sure 143.33 will be seen again.
  • #222,168
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:49pm Apr 22, 2010 3:49pm
Quoting Geppy
this PA is just absurd.
I'm with you and said the same thing. . . Makes no sense anymore. . . Throw all charts, computer indi's out the window. . .

But looks to me like classic distribution and something "big" is in the making and I think we we head south in a big way. . .
  • #222,169
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:51pm Apr 22, 2010 3:51pm
Cod

Apparently we are in a ranging mode. I don't know when will breakout happen, so in the midst of ranging mode, I believe any form of technical analysis wouldn't work. e.g candlesticks, indicator giving bullish or bearish signals and divergence etc etc. just like for this H4 very bullish candlestick, but what I think about this candlestick is it will just fall flatly back to 143 :/ just a thought
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #222,170
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:51pm Apr 22, 2010 3:51pm
One more 4h session to go to the end of this flat bottom cloud. If G/J is still inclined to go down, a quick drop would miss the next cloud which is thinner and not as powerful.
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  • #222,171
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:52pm Apr 22, 2010 3:52pm
did i miss out something big?
now i realize someone is being suspended...
nowonder i elt someone is missing
row row row your boat
  • #222,172
  • Apr 22, 2010 3:53pm Apr 22, 2010 3:53pm
its a pretty makes no sense of PA. so i'm just going flatly short at resistance and buy at support. with obvious sl ofcourse
Read the entire market, money is made on the main trend not the fluctuation
  • #222,173
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:01pm Apr 22, 2010 4:01pm
Quoting Kofmaster
Cod

Apparently we are in a ranging mode. I don't know when will breakout happen, so in the midst of ranging mode, I believe any form of technical analysis wouldn't work. e.g candlesticks, indicator giving bullish or bearish signals and divergence etc etc. just like for this H4 very bullish candlestick, but what I think about this candlestick is it will just fall flatly back to 143 :/ just a thought

There has defiantly been a lot of that going on. I am looking more to the daily and the weekly as they stand now saying 144 is going to get challenged hard.

If the price slips below 143.33 before asia then that all changes.

But yes if h4 were being respected we would be at 138 by now.
  • #222,174
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:06pm Apr 22, 2010 4:06pm
First UJ batters GJ shorts, now that is done GU takes over battering....
Think we should forget shorting this pair for a while, agree with QC something big is comming but don't think its south.......
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #222,175
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:11pm Apr 22, 2010 4:11pm
I am also short...and concerned at this point (SL just above 144.20 - recent highs). Regarding risk events - there is another poll on upcoming UK election later today and UK GDP at 8:30am GMT. If you are aware of any other risk events for tonight (US time), please be so kind as to add them. Thanks so much for your help! It's really good to observe this thread.
  • #222,176
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:15pm Apr 22, 2010 4:15pm
I mentioned this a week or so ago, but the PA has been seriously weird lately. The amount of 100% retraces after very strong moves has smacked of intervention and manipulation. Volumes have simply been ignored as have perfectly valid divergences. Trend followers have been killed and if you traded a pure Auslanco strategy, you would have been pulling your hair out by now.

BUT, I cannot ignore what my analysis is telling me. I cannot ignore the numerous bearish divergences. I cannot ignore the numerous signs of Distribution and I cannot ignore the fact the indices are VERY overbought and due a substantial retrace.

The rise tonight may be in part due to Cameron having a better debate, but there will be more before the election and if the UK really does have a hung parliament, then Sterling's fall will be huge and rapid.
  • #222,177
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:18pm Apr 22, 2010 4:18pm
Quoting quecee5
I'm with you and said the same thing. . . Makes no sense anymore. . . Throw all charts, computer indi's out the window. . .

But looks to me like classic distribution and something "big" is in the making and I think we we head south in a big way. . .
It certainly looks like some big time distribution. I really can't believe how the DJIA behaved today. Opened 100+ points lower - oh but WFC reported a good earning assisted by a shaving in provisions - Rally back into the green
  • #222,178
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:35pm Apr 22, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting Eulogy
It certainly looks like some big time distribution. I really can't believe how the DJIA behaved today. Opened 100+ points lower - oh but WFC reported a good earning assisted by a shaving in provisions - Rally back into the green
Yes, what I've notice is this. . . If this is in fact a bull rally (which we all know what that looks like) with all the so called "great earnings" and all the good news coming out of the US why haven't we broken the last high @ 145 area yet??????

Maybe it's forthcoming and my statement is premature, but one wuld have thought that at the very least momentum would have overcome resistance by now from all the good news. . .

Also, I notice that price has stalled each day at 144.20 area where massive selling occurred each time. . . The 100% retrace was parked right at 144.20 and more selling or positioning was being done. . .

I might be way off base with my thinkn but I too can not ignore even when chart analysis, inidis, supp/res is not working. . .

So what do you do in a case like this. . . you go with your experience and take a trade, set SL according to risk, set a price alert, cut the computer off and go live life. . .

Or option 2. . . don't take a trade until you see a clear direction that you are comfortable with. . .
  • #222,179
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:39pm Apr 22, 2010 4:39pm
Quoting Eulogy
I really can't believe how the DJIA behaved today. Opened 100+ points lower - oh but WFC reported a good earning assisted by a shaving in provisions - Rally back into the green
Couldn't agree more, left me just shaking my head.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #222,180
  • Apr 22, 2010 4:43pm Apr 22, 2010 4:43pm
Quoting quecee5
I'm with you and said the same thing. . . Makes no sense anymore. . . Throw all charts, computer indi's out the window. . .

But looks to me like classic distribution and something "big" is in the making and I think we we head south in a big way. . .
last week geppy made intermediary top 145 from bottom 132;
on weekly and monthly price is still below 200SMA and 50 SMA which means that PA is still bearish on both TFs
on daily price is playing BETWEEN both MA (under 200 SMA and over 50 SMA), which means that PA is indecisive state for now

so we have the following scenarios of next price action:

1. the intermediary top will be extended toward 147 (possible but not sure)
2. the long term top will be formed @ 151 and to do so the price must overcome huge bunch of resistances plus be closed definitely for couple of weeks over 50 SMA on weekly (quite unlikely at this time)
3. the intermediary bottom shall be formed somewhere at the level of 135/137 and to do that PA should perform some bearish activity like today or close below 142.6 tomorrow
(quite possible)
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