Technical Analysis Fallacy | Page 728 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Ultimate Fallacy in Technical Analysis 99 replies

"Technical Analysis Fallacy" thread people, I need your help 54 replies

Technical Analysis Fallacy Redux 23 replies

Statistical analysis fallacy 33 replies

Attachments: Technical Analysis Fallacy
Exit Attachments

Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #14,541
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:31am Apr 22, 2010 9:31am
Maheswara, i fight like a lion. Now DD is 7,5%.... But my nerves are (exuse me)... In the toilet at least twice...
  • #14,542
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:37am Apr 22, 2010 9:37am
The EUR/USD is going wild at the moment. Big swings both ways in a few minutes. I am glad that I am not in at the moment. Good luck to those trading. Ray
  • #14,543
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:42am Apr 22, 2010 9:42am
Doing rescues against the momentum is crazy. But I find myself trading against the trend too, not rescuing though. Picking a little here and there.
  • #14,544
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:42am Apr 22, 2010 9:42am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
I second GEfx, those are the kind of crazy rescues I am talking about.
Yes, you are right aiyahmarklah, but don't forget that
victories don't teach, the defeats does.

BTW, nice stops hunting....

Rgs,

T.
  • #14,545
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:45am Apr 22, 2010 9:45am
Quoting GEfx
Just reviewed some of the posts from this morning and am a little concerned about Fana, but also about the recommendations he received today. I do not want to open a can of worms here, nor am I absolving him of his trading sin. Why not just recommend that he kill the trade that is clearly against the trend, and flip it? In retrospect, was there too much focus on rescue? I know he seemed determined to rescue his ill-advised trade, but being down 4.5% seems to exceed anyones loss limit. Just wanted to ask the question.
War being fought below 3300, see who wins the day...........

GE,

This is just my opinion, so everyone take it for what it's worth...... You either trade the way the thread outlines or don't.... but don't mix approaches as doing so is Russian Roulette, this has been discussed before. Either you are determined to see a position through to the end or don't trade this way.

Mixing fixed percentages and static rules on dynamic PA probabilities will not work.

Bad positions can be brought to BE, or at least reduced in loss if worked PROPERLY, but hindsight looking at what happened is not the way to learn.

Either dance as taught, or rule base trade, doesn't matter BUT DO NOT MIX THE TWO.

Hope this doesn't sound harsh, as it's not given in that context, just trying to help in my limited capacity.

regards
  • #14,546
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:58am Apr 22, 2010 9:58am
Quoting textor
Yes, you are right aiyahmarklah, but don't forget that
victories don't teach, the defeats does.

BTW, nice stops hunting....

Rgs,

T.
Shhhh....the people here don't like it. (kidding)


Quoting auxesis
War being fought below 3300, see who wins the day...........

GE,

This is just my opinion, so everyone take it for what it's worth...... You either trade the way the thread outlines or don't.... but don't mix approaches as doing so is Russian Roulette, this has been discussed before. Either you are determined to see a position through to the end or don't trade this way.

Mixing fixed percentages and static rules on dynamic PA probabilities will not work.

Bad positions can be brought to BE, or at least reduced in loss if worked PROPERLY, but hindsight...
First off, I don't think you are any where near "limited capacity". In Fana's case the entries are really terrible, he did not see the bigger picture of the market. And making rescues against a fast moving train...

I agree about not mixing it up, in fact my guess is even if one is caught, he is at most caught at scout level only with minimal damage to the book. Still don't get it, why the rescue...arggg
  • #14,547
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:19am Apr 22, 2010 10:19am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Shhhh....the people here don't like it. (kidding)




First off, I don't think you are any where near "limited capacity". In Fana's case the entries are really terrible, he did not see the bigger picture of the market. And making rescues against a fast moving train...

I agree about not mixing it up, in fact my guess is even if one is caught, he is at most caught at scout level only with minimal damage to the book. Still don't get it, why the rescue...arggg
no losses says the bosses. lol.
  • #14,548
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:22am Apr 22, 2010 10:22am
Here it is...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: horrible.JPG Size: 145 KB
  • #14,549
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:26am Apr 22, 2010 10:26am
Quoting jest1081
no losses says the bosses. lol.
ok lor...

Quoting Fana
Here it is...
and the biggest winner is........the broker !!!
  • #14,550
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:27am Apr 22, 2010 10:27am
Quoting auxesis
War being fought below 3300, see who wins the day...........

GE,

This is just my opinion, so everyone take it for what it's worth...... You either trade the way the thread outlines or don't.... but don't mix approaches as doing so is Russian Roulette, this has been discussed before. Either you are determined to see a position through to the end or don't trade this way.

Mixing fixed percentages and static rules on dynamic PA probabilities will not work.

Bad positions can be brought to BE, or at least reduced in loss if worked PROPERLY, but...
Hi auxesis, I understand what you are saying. Was not being critical of anyone, and agree with you completely about mixing things up. I hope Fana is not playing "what if" games in his head now, aside from trying to figure out how he got the trend so badly wrong. And, he was repeatedly warned that he was trading against the trend. His positions will square up sometime (not sure when), but I think trying to rescue a trade against the trend is a death wish, and perhaps we should be more willing to point that out.

One final thought that I wanted to share yesterday but deleted the message upon review, thinking it would be too tough on some people. I think learning fti/Gann/Fibonacci/etc requires a lot of hard work. I think there are newer traders here who are jumping into some pretty complex trading techniques without proving (through their quality questions and thoughtful posts) that they have any clue what they are doing. Would it be better for the thread to ignore these posts until they have put in the work here? I do not want to pick on Fana, but imho, he has not proven that he knows what he is doing, so any responses to his questions about rescue, etc, are probably not being mentally processed in the manner in which they are intended. If this is an out-of-bounds question, please let me know.

(It's like watching one of your kids run with scissors)
  • #14,551
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:33am Apr 22, 2010 10:33am
Quoting GEfx
Hi auxesis, I understand what you are saying. Was not being critical of anyone, and agree with you completely about mixing things up. I hope Fana is not playing "what if" games in his head now, aside from trying to figure out how he got the trend so badly wrong. And, he was repeatedly warned that he was trading against the trend. His positions will square up sometime (not sure when), but I think trying to rescue a trade against the trend is a death wish, and perhaps we should be more willing to point that out.

One final thought that I wanted...
GEfx, excuse me if i can... This is true. And i think, that i am not alone. I work hard, but one cant buy "time practise"... And here is also the second thing. I have no problem with revealing my trading ...skills?... But here are the begginers who dont think that is easier and much valuable to discuss reality despite it is black...
And what is the most important is, that seniors here who are experienced are able to continue research. Without of it, soon we(begginers) are all under water...
  • #14,552
  • Apr 22, 2010 10:58am Apr 22, 2010 10:58am
fana ,
rescue also involves getting ur sizes , skew , mm in sync with the market ,
when u were too deep n ur resources are low , u cld cut back some , n try rescuing at appropriate point later ,
i didnt mean for u to put everything on the table n hope the market saves u ... u need to save urself ...

anyway these are part of the experiences ... push urself to the deep , ur skills and thinking are crafted there , when u r at the deep ...
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #14,553
  • Apr 22, 2010 11:02am Apr 22, 2010 11:02am
Quoting Fana
Here it is...
you trades reminds me of lusan, only less organised.
it would be benificial if you would take a look at his past journal. He's got some got stuff going then, lusan has got the closest thing scripted in real time to TAF teachings, then...

There's plenty that you could learn from him.

cheers

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=72993
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=150272
  • #14,554
  • Apr 22, 2010 11:02am Apr 22, 2010 11:02am
Quoting Fana
Here it is...
Hi Fana,

Do you look at the 1 day and 60 min chart? You should.

And don't forget the thing about "opinion", it is not
easy, but try it. Don't "married" any currency.

Remember Marx (Groucho): "...if you don't like my
my principles, I have others..." or something like that....

Take a break.

Sorry about your girlfriend.

Rgs,

T.
  • #14,555
  • Apr 22, 2010 11:19am Apr 22, 2010 11:19am
Quoting GEfx
One final thought that I wanted to share yesterday but deleted the message upon review, thinking it would be too tough on some people. I think learning fti/Gann/Fibonacci/etc requires a lot of hard work. I think there are newer traders here who are jumping into some pretty complex trading techniques without proving (through their quality questions and thoughtful posts) that they have any clue what they are doing. Would it be better for the thread to ignore these posts until they have put in the work here? I do not want to pick on Fana, but imho,...
GEfx, I understand your concern about new traders dancing without understanding TAF fundamentals. But if they don't expose what they don't know and stay in darkness alone, it would be much more difficult to make progress.
More importantly, fti started this thread for only one reason-- He wants to help small inexperienced traders. He knows how they (we were once one of them) get slaughtered in the battle field. His teaching is his way of loving this world. Loving, Caring, Sharing, are where this thread comes from, and where this thread should go forward.
Hope no misunderstanding here, we all love, care and share in our own way, what I said is this thread is fti's way to love and care about the inexperienced traders. They can't be ignored.
  • #14,556
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:04pm Apr 22, 2010 12:04pm
Quoting auxesis
This is just my opinion, so everyone take it for what it's worth...... You either trade the way the thread outlines or don't.... but don't mix approaches as doing so is Russian Roulette, this has been discussed before. Either you are determined to see a position through to the end or don't trade this way.

Mixing fixed percentages and static rules on dynamic PA probabilities will not work.

Bad positions can be brought to BE, or at least reduced in loss if worked PROPERLY, but hindsight looking at what happened is not...
I totally agree. There is no middle way. Mixing methods can result in some lucky outcome, but eventually sure die. A determined mindset is the core support for the TAF method.
  • #14,557
  • Edited 12:47pm Apr 22, 2010 12:32pm | Edited 12:47pm
Jest, that was funny. When I saw Fana chart long gone memories came: me fighting the news and the trend. A form of madness, right?

Fana, i would kindly suggest:
1- reduce your size. Do not bother with p/l. Just practice.
2.-focus on trading WITH the 1H trend. (what is the trend? Many different ways...eyeball it or the slope of ma(12) in H1, etc)....trade only in that direction
3-be ridig about the maximum allowable dd...have clarity about when to pull the plug
4-only 1 flip allowed per day
5.....etc....

Good luck and never give up


edit: I do not teach anything. These are my reflections after several years of facing the forex ocean. Good luck to all.

what a day.......waves within waves.....the magic key to a fx trader heaven
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #14,558
  • Edited 1:14pm Apr 22, 2010 12:55pm | Edited 1:14pm
Hi all

Final image ... I not more know.

"one human - one style"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GROfinal.JPG Size: 82 KB
  • #14,559
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:11pm Apr 22, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Shhhh....the people here don't like it. (kidding)




First off, I don't think you are any where near "limited capacity". In Fana's case the entries are really terrible, he did not see the bigger picture of the market. And making rescues against a fast moving train...

I agree about not mixing it up, in fact my guess is even if one is caught, he is at most caught at scout level only with minimal damage to the book. Still don't get it, why the rescue...arggg
The rescue? From what I see on Fana's chart it's an attempt to catch the falling knife while it's still in the air.

Problem is fti's teachings are like a dagger in the hands of a child - start playing with it recklessly and you will end up with your thumb cut. Fti keeps on repeating that it's your head that makes the difference but what most of the people see is just attacks and rescues stuff. They come here, see a pro's teachings and soon discover they make a lot of sense. So they go out there with their guns blazing thinking that after a couple of good attacks the forex world is their for the taking. Human nature I guess.

I am not trying to attack anyone here, please don't get me wrong. What I'm trying to say is that what's in this thread is incredibly valuable...and equally dangerous. This might work as a disclaimer, LOL

Still, this is a free public forum so the best we could do is warn people, right?
  • #14,560
  • Edited 1:55pm Apr 22, 2010 1:44pm | Edited 1:55pm
Quoting Setebos
The rescue? From what I see on Fana's chart it's an attempt to catch the falling knife while it's still in the air.

Problem is fti's teachings are like a dagger in the hands of a child - start playing with it recklessly and you will end up with your thumb cut.
Or Throat!

@GEfx, you stated that the better position would have been to cut or flip. Flip would have been the better choice, but that decision should have been made way before when it was brought up. Once decision is made to rescue, you have to wait for the move to show sighs of correction that could be 100, 150 pips or more at times. So you'd better have a good reason why, hugh. coz you could be making good pips going in the other direction.

My target area was where I felt price was going taken from hourlies, leveraged flip from that point 3330/40 area is too deep to recover lost groud........... Fana was in no mans imho, staring at high skew going into news, the following break south from 3330 should have forced him out.

After seeing his blotter I know.

FANA see chart, I understand why you entered originally, but on hourly charts you are trading north correction, not north trend

once again you need to stay with main trend, how many times do you have to relearn lessons, you will learn it or go broke being stubborn.

You are always looking for a reversal against main trend to enter, change you mindset and look for reversals that go in the main direction, instead of looking for correction, look for trend continuation. You're top and bottom picking, you can't do that using this approach.

Once that 5 minute PA failed to make a new high and took out the low (your original entry) the trend south was back on. Now you are rescuing against the trend. You rescue against the corrections not trends. You need to understand this.

Quit adding blindly on rescues wait for it to turn !!!!

Hope my comments earlier did not cost people money, but you must trade for yourself, Look before you cross the street and decide to rescue. Is it worth it, charts will tell you possibilities.

Taking a break for a while,

regards
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: horrible.JPG Size: 179 KB
12 traders viewing now