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USDCAD trend reversal?

  • #3,261
  • Apr 20, 2010 10:09am Apr 20, 2010 10:09am
Word!
  • #3,262
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:37pm Apr 20, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting Duce
+42 pips is better than a kick in the head. Hopefully tomorrow we'll have some volatility.
Were you a happy camper today?

I thought there was a dash of V this a.m. Glad that I had E/Cad; G/Cad & loonie shorts plus my BEAVER long.

Pips, poutine & 50 for a month (life is good).

Just finishing some bank sheets to see how the 21st will be played.
  • #3,263
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:03pm Apr 20, 2010 8:03pm
Hi,

This is my first post here. I'm a Calgarian. What happened today? BOC didn't change the rate so why did the CAD take off? I know they mentioned a really great growth prediction, but that shouldn't be enough to trade it this high.

I just don't get it.
  • #3,264
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:08pm Apr 20, 2010 8:08pm
Quoting bpenbert
Hi,

This is my first post here. I'm a Calgarian. What happened today? BOC didn't change the rate so why did the CAD take off? I know they mentioned a really great growth prediction, but that shouldn't be enough to trade it this high.

I just don't get it.
thay said, thay will hike the rate in july
  • #3,265
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:30pm Apr 20, 2010 8:30pm
Couple of info sheets I feel have valid info (Lehman & Goldman) suggest
Loonie has top fundamental credability. One suggests 95 by end of summer.

Loonie D chart has STO going down nicely, as well as the ema's.
Short 9975 & hope for 98 is my plan.

FOTO: heard on the radio today that Clinton, Bush & the new guy all had/have their chief financial guy ( sorry that I don't know the title-Canucks call them Ministers of Finance) from the upper echelons of Goldman-Sachs. Another caller suggested that G-S will re-open under
the new name " Government- Sex" in order to be more honest to the small investor.
  • #3,266
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:45pm Apr 20, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting bpenbert
Hi,

This is my first post here. I'm a Calgarian. What happened today?
I just don't get it.
'Nuff said
  • #3,267
  • Apr 20, 2010 9:19pm Apr 20, 2010 9:19pm
BP: Forgive me, but I had to reply to the "Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark" bumper stickers.

What happened was the WORDING in the announcement!
It was hawkish & CAD fundamentals supported it.

Read & re-read previous posts ( Venge, Duce & FOTO give a wealth of useful info).

My take:I am a US/CAD bear.

Many others disagree & dialogue is good.
  • #3,268
  • Apr 20, 2010 10:05pm Apr 20, 2010 10:05pm
Quoting Scarecru
BP: Forgive me, but I had to reply to the "Let the Eastern Bastards Freeze in the Dark" bumper stickers.

What happened was the WORDING in the announcement!
It was hawkish & CAD fundamentals supported it.

Read & re-read previous posts ( Venge, Duce & FOTO give a wealth of useful info).

My take:I am a US/CAD bear.

Many others disagree & dialogue is good.
The balancing of books more than anything else.... i.e. setting the retailers up for a stop hunt bonanza.

Lol fundamentals - I've erased that word from my vocabulary, its an irrelevant term ....

Funny though, every time that term is used, more than 70% of retailers find themselves on the opposite side of the coin.

I think of this chart everyday... multi month short squeeze. Add in high leverage and you've got forex.

Position: Flat

http://twocents.blogs.com/weblog/images/nas2005.gif
  • #3,269
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:17am Apr 21, 2010 1:17am
I Buy with a target 1.0080
  • #3,270
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:51am Apr 21, 2010 5:51am
Morning to all,
Thoroughly enjoying all the posts.

If I didn't know better yesterday would have met the definition of a selling climax. Price action if it had emotion was angry and venting at the US Fed.
We either are going to have one heck of a move lower in this pair, or a bottom is being formed.

The going lower bear case comes from future self sustaining economic growth. There are only good things to come with a strengthening currency and a rising equity market as each supports the other. A growing, stand on its own feet economy should have positive yield interest rate curve.
To accomplish that, Canadian growth must exceed the US by a fair amount, akin to what is being experienced in Australia.

What we had was a move generated by the search for yield and solid banks. It did lack the confirmation of a sizable equity rally.

I put my Euro/USD shorts back on and resume the search for a stronger USD either from a recovering US economy or implosion of soverign debt in Europe or the sound of popping coming out of Asia. There was good selling into the better then expected news from Europe that kicked in at the 135.00 level.

A stronger USD should bring some balance to the USD/CAD equation. Want to see what equities, gold, oil, and the days close brings.
Have got a small long on this pair at the parity level, didn't expect to see the amount of selling that actualy occurred. Patience is a virtue that still needs work even now.
  • #3,271
  • Apr 21, 2010 9:32pm Apr 21, 2010 9:32pm
Quoting Warwick
The balancing of books more than anything else.... i.e. setting the retailers up for a stop hunt bonanza.

Lol fundamentals - I've erased that word from my vocabulary, its an irrelevant term ....

Funny though, every time that term is used, more than 70% of retailers find themselves on the opposite side of the coin.

I think of this chart everyday... multi month short squeeze. Add in high leverage and you've got forex.

Position: Flat

http://twocents.blogs.com/weblog/images/nas2005.gif
Could not grasp the intent of your post (but those who know me would not be surprised). All I could infer was NAS..100 was near up BB & 2nd leg down scenario when you extend beyond 2005.
Would you be amenable to explain to me (in simple terms) your post?
Thanks.
  • #3,272
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:35am Apr 22, 2010 12:35am
Quoting Scarecru
Could not grasp the intent of your post (but those who know me would not be surprised). All I could infer was NAS..100 was near up BB & 2nd leg down scenario when you extend beyond 2005.
Would you be amenable to explain to me (in simple terms) your post?
Thanks.
Sure... Although the focal point of the graph should have been the run up and extreme short positioning which accompanied. It was meant to point out how long the "illogicality" of markets can draw themselves out.

There are many graphs that tell a similar story... remember crude two years ago?

I was merely addressing your normative view on why the CAD had appreciated during that period and even in a much broader time-frame.

You say fundamentals, I argue stop clearing or the balancing of positions.... semantics.

hope that clears it up.
  • #3,273
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:11am Apr 22, 2010 8:11am
Scarecru, remember that recomended book "Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds"

That chart should be exhibit number 1 for the contrarian strategist.
Find those markets where misalignment with reality of the underlying facts and you have the making of a fortune.
Keep yourself apart from the mania and watch price for the sign that delusion is being recognized.
  • #3,274
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:20am Apr 22, 2010 8:20am
Consider Four untouchable at the point of being declared a heretic, market beliefs.

1) The Chinese government has got everything under control.

2) Bailouts can fix Europe.

3) Keynesian economics works.

4) We can talk with the North Koreans and Iranians
  • #3,275
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:16am Apr 22, 2010 9:16am
One more for the road. The U.K. cannot get its act together.

The EURO/GBP has this week broken below a really long term uptrend line that has held as solid support. This may just be a multiyear contraian play.
  • #3,276
  • Apr 22, 2010 8:48pm Apr 22, 2010 8:48pm
Quoting Warwick
Sure... .

You say fundamentals, I argue stop clearing or the balancing of positions.... semantics.

hope that clears it up.
WW: thanks for your reply. Gives me another perspective to consider with respect to my trade decisions.
  • #3,277
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:03pm Apr 22, 2010 9:03pm
Quoting foto
Scarecru, remember that recomended book "Extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds"

That chart should be exhibit number 1 for the contrarian strategist.
Find those markets where misalignment with reality of the underlying facts and you have the making of a fortune.
Keep yourself apart from the mania and watch price for the sign that delusion is being recognized.
FOTO: THANK YOU

Upon reading & then reviewing WW's chart, a light came on ( admittedly dim; but,a light nonetheless) Had heard the word "contrarian" before, as well as titles re: contrarian trading; but had never pursued further ( only so many hours in my day). Appears that I shall have to prioritize this facet for my longer term plans!
  • #3,278
  • Apr 22, 2010 9:55pm Apr 22, 2010 9:55pm
FOTO: answered "false" to #s 1-4, looking @GBP sells;as well as,sold E/GBP @ 8750 (never looked @this pair until your post Apr 14).

Does this make me a Contrarian? Thought that I was just an Ant making reasonable decisions on the information provided here!

Was tempted to close my Euro shorts after the gap up; but didn't since I tekked 1.32 by June, & my T$P is 1.31 then 1.30 this year.

Truly appreciate the exchange of views & info on this thread.

I am learning & refining & PIP positive & I believe that is all that matters in this game.
  • #3,279
  • Apr 23, 2010 6:32am Apr 23, 2010 6:32am
Good morning,

The purpose of this post is to address the inconsistent market reaction to the inflation/deflation battle being waged.
Since the market can not decide whether to poop or fart on this matter, for those shorting the Euro and being subjected to the swings from volatility being induced by the indecision.

Try short the EURO/USD + short EURO/CAD + long USD/CAD since USD/CAD appears to be sideways for now. This way as the market swings in the EURO shorts the USD/CAD position absorbs some of the volatility. The thinking is that this way one is actually shorting the EURO instead of being subjected to volatility distortions in the account.

Since the Cad keeps moving back and forth at parity, this proceedure should be put in place at parity of 1.00 USD/CAD At least one is starting off even.

This of course does not mean that if the Euro strengthens one will not lose money, but if it continues to weaken then it is easier to hold the position.

Scarecru, I have no idea how the market will ultimately go for certain but my thoughts are that underneath it all the real problems are going to get bigger in Europe rather then less.
Going deeper into debt to prevent defaulting on what already cannot be paid for, Mr Spoc might say it is illogical. But here we go again.
  • #3,280
  • Apr 23, 2010 8:40pm Apr 23, 2010 8:40pm
FOTO & WarWick: Merci beaucoup!

The information from your further posts are similar to placing more pieces of a jig-saw puzzle into my trading picture. Each new item gives a somewhat clearer view.

Put W's nas100 chart up (expanded to date) & it was a little clearer than the first attempt.Especially with the focal reference.

FOTO: My feel from the news that I read is that- like the iceberg-you only see the 20% happy "green shoots". I'm bear E/U as I mentioned earlier; however, your E/U, E/CAD & US/CAD positing enlarged my myopic trading view. Thank you.
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