Forex A collection of systems that don't really work.
Yep you guessed it I've bought the books payed for the forums, the one-of-a-kind approaches, the systems, the “methods”, technicals, fundamentals, volume studies, correlation studies, news..Blah blah blah. Bottom line some work more than others but in the end they all lose money, unless you are very selective (which statistically has no merit) or have a well-developed expectancy skill. So is there a way to use all this BS- possibly. In all this time what have we learned?
1)Losses don't have to be hundreds of pts.
2)There are times to trade and times not to trade. More often than not we should NOT be trading.
3)Single and 2 bar patterns are mediocre at best.
4)You only need 1 moving average to see the trend.
5)Picking tops and bottoms lead to losses.
6)Break-outs are constantly getting Faked-out.
7)Forget about trend-lines these “LOOK COOL” and thats about it.
8)Statistical analysis is for the classroom and back-test. When forward testing any system all of that statistically possible maybe sort-a-kinda bull creeps into Ur mind when the stops are about to get hit and you move them because there is a 1% likelihood that price will continue to move against you and it does. Bottom line: Statistics are useless in this game.
9)Predicting Volatility and hoping it will show up are 2 different things. Wait for something on a longer term to point to increased Volatility.
10)Bar formations on long term charts are just that: Huge stops, slow payoff, very boring but hey 5% a year now thats a Rocket to the moon and a hoody-doo-dee-doo!!!
11) Indicators total garbage. How about this for and indicator Account Balance 50,000...45,000...40,000...35,000.....30,000.....25,000..... Oh not to worry it takes screen time. It takes practice......20,000......15,000.......10,000........The forex market is very volatile (thats news).....5,000......2,500.... And then a light bulb in your head goes off “Hey dummy!!Thats my money your pissing away.” And you move to demo and you go through everything you encountered with real money. After that you are ready to quit entirely and don't want to hear another thing about charts, trading, fx, forums, advisories, subscriptions, no more teary-eyed “This is why I do this” emails. You just want to go smoke a good Maduro cigar and think about what to pursue next, at this point you'll mow lawns if to get instant payoff. However it is now that you are truly ready to learn. The angst to push the button is gone and the little voices are just faint whispers now, “oh, no it's going up...This could be the runner” “You dont want to miss this” “whats the fiber doin? Whats the kiwi doin? Oooooooh I got it Cable, yeha go chek Cable.”
So you're probably asking yourself is there anything useful in this heap? Maybe but first lets look at the extremes there is Long term (day charts) intraday(noise) and scalping (more noise) and how people make these appear to work. With long term charts you've got your S&R which is just a crutch to justify or not justify a trade. When long term signals do lead to moves the moves are usually large and the volatility goes way up. Intraday chartists use a lot of double-talk I mean these are the kinds of guys that if they were a little smarter they could disprove gravity. They are the ones that trade the break-outs and ranges which most of the time can be clearly seen on a longer term chart. Lastly scalpers use something called expectancy to make their systems look better but they never really quantify what exactly they mean or how much.
Some times these people get a winning trade and it gets posted almost immediately I might add and sometimes their conveniently away for extended periods of time which usually coincides with the same time that everyone else is loosing hand over fist and then low and behold their back again and everyone feels ok again and the error of their way is pointed out and they go on.
What I am going to attempt to propose here is perty simple. I have tried every super over complicated method out there so here goes. Long term charts are good for forecasting possible moves and possible increased volatility which will keep you out of the market when it's not really doing much. On the days that it looks like it may actually do something we'll just sit there as long as possible with a 5 minute chart and a 15 minute chart taking the first signal that shows up while never having more than 2 open at a time. I will try to practice what I preach by following what I have just stated though it's probably in the worst possible layout. I know that this will go over most peoples heads but for the few that have been in this long enough to come to the same conclusions as me this may strike a chord in your being as you say “yeah, I've been thinking that for a while too”. This ones for you guys...
Yep you guessed it I've bought the books payed for the forums, the one-of-a-kind approaches, the systems, the “methods”, technicals, fundamentals, volume studies, correlation studies, news..Blah blah blah. Bottom line some work more than others but in the end they all lose money, unless you are very selective (which statistically has no merit) or have a well-developed expectancy skill. So is there a way to use all this BS- possibly. In all this time what have we learned?
1)Losses don't have to be hundreds of pts.
2)There are times to trade and times not to trade. More often than not we should NOT be trading.
3)Single and 2 bar patterns are mediocre at best.
4)You only need 1 moving average to see the trend.
5)Picking tops and bottoms lead to losses.
6)Break-outs are constantly getting Faked-out.
7)Forget about trend-lines these “LOOK COOL” and thats about it.
8)Statistical analysis is for the classroom and back-test. When forward testing any system all of that statistically possible maybe sort-a-kinda bull creeps into Ur mind when the stops are about to get hit and you move them because there is a 1% likelihood that price will continue to move against you and it does. Bottom line: Statistics are useless in this game.
9)Predicting Volatility and hoping it will show up are 2 different things. Wait for something on a longer term to point to increased Volatility.
10)Bar formations on long term charts are just that: Huge stops, slow payoff, very boring but hey 5% a year now thats a Rocket to the moon and a hoody-doo-dee-doo!!!
11) Indicators total garbage. How about this for and indicator Account Balance 50,000...45,000...40,000...35,000.....30,000.....25,000..... Oh not to worry it takes screen time. It takes practice......20,000......15,000.......10,000........The forex market is very volatile (thats news).....5,000......2,500.... And then a light bulb in your head goes off “Hey dummy!!Thats my money your pissing away.” And you move to demo and you go through everything you encountered with real money. After that you are ready to quit entirely and don't want to hear another thing about charts, trading, fx, forums, advisories, subscriptions, no more teary-eyed “This is why I do this” emails. You just want to go smoke a good Maduro cigar and think about what to pursue next, at this point you'll mow lawns if to get instant payoff. However it is now that you are truly ready to learn. The angst to push the button is gone and the little voices are just faint whispers now, “oh, no it's going up...This could be the runner” “You dont want to miss this” “whats the fiber doin? Whats the kiwi doin? Oooooooh I got it Cable, yeha go chek Cable.”
So you're probably asking yourself is there anything useful in this heap? Maybe but first lets look at the extremes there is Long term (day charts) intraday(noise) and scalping (more noise) and how people make these appear to work. With long term charts you've got your S&R which is just a crutch to justify or not justify a trade. When long term signals do lead to moves the moves are usually large and the volatility goes way up. Intraday chartists use a lot of double-talk I mean these are the kinds of guys that if they were a little smarter they could disprove gravity. They are the ones that trade the break-outs and ranges which most of the time can be clearly seen on a longer term chart. Lastly scalpers use something called expectancy to make their systems look better but they never really quantify what exactly they mean or how much.
Some times these people get a winning trade and it gets posted almost immediately I might add and sometimes their conveniently away for extended periods of time which usually coincides with the same time that everyone else is loosing hand over fist and then low and behold their back again and everyone feels ok again and the error of their way is pointed out and they go on.
What I am going to attempt to propose here is perty simple. I have tried every super over complicated method out there so here goes. Long term charts are good for forecasting possible moves and possible increased volatility which will keep you out of the market when it's not really doing much. On the days that it looks like it may actually do something we'll just sit there as long as possible with a 5 minute chart and a 15 minute chart taking the first signal that shows up while never having more than 2 open at a time. I will try to practice what I preach by following what I have just stated though it's probably in the worst possible layout. I know that this will go over most peoples heads but for the few that have been in this long enough to come to the same conclusions as me this may strike a chord in your being as you say “yeah, I've been thinking that for a while too”. This ones for you guys...
