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  • #601
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:24pm Apr 21, 2010 1:24pm
Another quiet US afternoon session...lack of economic news maybe in US.

lots of economic news releases tomorrow and Friday so could get some momentum.

Until we see a decent reversal in dow my main focus is to play shorts near range highs in xxx/jpy and xxx/usd and take profit and play the retrace back up...that seems to be be whats happening in most xxx/jpy pairs at the moment...as soon as we have a decent drop Dow below major PPZ areas we should see a big drop in xxx/jpy and xxx/usd.

A drop below 11,000 would be a nice present.
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  • #602
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:37pm Apr 21, 2010 1:37pm
No sooner that I speak...if this break can hold
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  • #603
  • Apr 21, 2010 2:35pm Apr 21, 2010 2:35pm
Closed AJ, AU, CJ, EJ, GJ, UC positions 20 mins ago.

Still have EU, GU, GJ and EUR/AUD positions open. GBP has been strong with the good unemployment news today.

I'd expect more volatility in the GBP the nearer we get to the general election...if we continue to have close three party contest and the possibility of a hung parliment I'd expect this to have a bearish affect on the GBP.

As I said earlier...want to take bank some profit and wait for a retrace to get in again. I dont feel this will be the start of a big down trend...espeically in Asian markets. Would rather take small profits and wait for the big move that will come when dow falls over 100pips in a day and breaks 11,000.

I've left some pending orders short at break fo various BEOB's that were formed...just in case we do get some moves in Asia.

Turned out to be good day today overall - all the positions above, G/CHF and E/G made some decent gains in the account...EG was worth 10% increase alone.

Went long Gold.

No more trades today...will look @ daily charts later...of to unwind by shooting some peeps on COD

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  • #604
  • Apr 21, 2010 2:55pm Apr 21, 2010 2:55pm
COD is the SH IT....Nothing like making $ and Team Death Match at the same time...
  • #605
  • Apr 21, 2010 2:57pm Apr 21, 2010 2:57pm
Quoting FlyCapital
COD is the SH IT....Nothing like making $ and Team Death Match at the same time...
It's all about the free for all for me...I'm rubbish at team death match for some reason.
  • #606
  • Apr 21, 2010 3:49pm Apr 21, 2010 3:49pm
Reviewed daily charts and I see the following that is of interest.

G/U - inside bar @ Round number - wont be up to play this and I'm already short anyway.

C/J - pin bar wiht divergence @ double top on daily...should have seen this coming and kept previous CJ trade open. Pending short entry @ 92.90. The best entry would have been the touch trade @ 94.00 missed this one...again. Will look for retrace entry tomorrow if it doesnt break tonight.

U/C - small pin bar...again I believe I was correct to take profit on xxx/jpy xxx/aud pairs but CAD pairs I should have looked into in more detail before closing - I swear UC is a curse for me...missed so many trades on this pair.

Anway I still have an entry open just above 1.0000 so will stick with this and look to add on a retrace back to 0.9977

As I mentioned...looking to continue to short AU,AJ, CJ near highs, long UC near lows (well looking for signs of retrace whilst watching Oil) and EJ, GJ on retraces back up to PPZ. Dow is @ a wide weekly PPZ area and is definitely showing signs of weakness...plenty of event risk tomorrow and continuing Greece and Euro concerns could weigh on risk appetite...when a fall in the dow comes I'll be there loading up my shorts ready. If we do get some decent moves down then EU could make new yearly lows IMO. If we get any strength on EU from economic news tomorrow morning I'll be loooking to ride the 1HR trend and then load up a short on 4HR timeframe near PPZ...thus my main focus is really counter-trend swing trading whilst playing smaller timeframe trends up to strong PPZ / confluenced areas.
  • #607
  • Apr 21, 2010 4:13pm Apr 21, 2010 4:13pm
Quoting lovejoy80
Reviewed daily charts and I see the following that is of interest.

G/U - inside bar @ Round number - wont be up to play this and I'm already short anyway.

C/J - pin bar wiht divergence @ double top on daily...should have seen this coming and kept previous CJ trade open. Pending short entry @ 92.90. The best entry would have been the touch trade @ 94.00 missed this one...again. Will look for retrace entry tomorrow if it doesnt break tonight.

U/C - small pin bar...again I believe I was correct to take profit on xxx/jpy xxx/aud pairs but CAD...

Nice analysis Lovejoy,

I spotted this baby on dailly Eur/jpy

http://i40.tinypic.com/2q0qc1h.jpg
  • #608
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:07am Apr 22, 2010 12:07am
Quoting ingmarforex
Nice analysis Lovejoy,

I spotted this baby on dailly Eur/jpy

http://i40.tinypic.com/2q0qc1h.jpg
I literally only learned about this pattern two days ago

As traders our learning never ends

Well spotted...
  • #609
  • Apr 22, 2010 12:11am Apr 22, 2010 12:11am
Quoting ingmarforex
Nice analysis Lovejoy,

I spotted this baby on dailly Eur/jpy

http://i40.tinypic.com/2q0qc1h.jpg
It's also a bear flag. Nice spotted.
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  • #610
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:13am Apr 22, 2010 1:13am
Early morning trades / analysis / plan for the day...

- Adding to E/A above the gap.
- Breakout and pullback on UJ
- Dow futures boucing up from 1HR PPZ - expecting a bounce in xxx/jpy this morning...deciding whether to 'scalp' for a bit or wait and sell when they get higher
- GBP/USD still following the 1HR TL and looks the strongest of the major currencies against the USD.
- E/G - broken TL...next stop PPZ below...will be watching...G/CHf also near PPZ again...following the path of least resistance....
- Expect Oil to have a high between 84.30-85 - on the basis these PPZ will be hold I'll be looking to add a CJ short - the closer to 94 the better.
- UC - the weekly PPZ is holding...daily price has not closed below this area yet - have two buys in play with SL below the recent lows...more of a swing trade.
- EU - no change still short below 13400...lots of news this morning will sell any bounces @ PPZ areas
- AJ closed shorts...will short on retracement - still have long gold trade so expect a bounce in AJ and AU this morning.

I am strongly bearish on xxx/jpy and xxx/USD today and tomorrow...I feel the dow will have a decent move over the next two days and my bias is short dragging xxx/jpy in particular with it....I'm watching carefully.
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  • #611
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:16am Apr 22, 2010 1:16am
Quoting neutro
It's also a bear flag. Nice spotted.
Yep...or the handle of the cup formation...a break below 123.30 = sell sell sell
  • #612
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:22am Apr 22, 2010 1:22am
Actually looking @ the dow futures chart...if 11044 holds could that be a kinda (although a bit crappy) H&S pattern?
  • #613
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:34am Apr 22, 2010 1:34am
Quoting lovejoy80
Actually looking @ the dow futures chart...if 11044 holds could that be a kinda (although a bit crappy) H&S pattern?
H&S are mainly reversal patterns.

This one is a reverse H&S (because the head is down). And odds are (being also with the trend) that 11100 will break. If it doesn't break (hard) then chances are we're going down.
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  • #614
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:39am Apr 22, 2010 1:39am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yep...or the handle of the cup formation...a break below 123.30 = sell sell sell
What if it retraces to 125 good resistance there and good entry IMO
  • #615
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:45am Apr 22, 2010 1:45am
Quoting neutro
H&S are mainly reversal patterns.

This one is a reverse H&S (because the head is down). And odds are (being also with the trend) that 11100 will break. If it doesn't break (hard) then chances are we're going down.
Yeah didnt see that that looks good...though I dont want it play out...this is what I was looking at...


As I mentioned we are seing some retrace i.e. weakening USD and JPY this morning...there could be plenty of chop and whipsaws due to the volume of news releases so I'll be looking to enter positions with wider stop lossses than normal more swing type trades...stop losses above major PPZ and recent daily highs e.g. above 94 on C/J.

I'm looking @ 1.5485 as TL and PPZ confluence on 4HR GU...though we could reach the major PPZ @ 1.5520 - 60 area too

Exited UJ, GU and GJ for small losses
Bought GU and AJ this morning for a few pips and just exited and reversed AJ.

Still short EU, long EA and long gold.
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  • #616
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:52am Apr 22, 2010 1:52am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah didnt see that that looks good...though I dont want it play out...this is what I was looking at...


As I mentioned we are seing some retrace...
That's a bit of a stretch... The segments (each shoulder and head) should be of equal length.

EG is at an interesting level. I'd go out on a limb and buy some near here (with small risk) and wait for a nice PA formation on daily. That would be nice.
  • #617
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:56am Apr 22, 2010 1:56am
I am not sure if Dow could give a decent hint about Ccy's today.

But i think Gold will have a more significant impact.
.
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  • #618
  • Apr 22, 2010 1:58am Apr 22, 2010 1:58am
Quoting lovejoy80
Yeah didnt see that that looks good...though I dont want it play out...this is what I was looking at...


As I mentioned we are seing some retrace...
meant to attach charts to last post.


Shorted AJ @ 86.38 SL 10pips -1% risk...a touch trade of 1HR PPZ.
Shorted AJ @ 86.38 SL 86.90 - 2% above a more major PPZ...i.e. looking for a position / swing trade
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  • #619
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:04am Apr 22, 2010 2:04am
Quoting nasir.khan
I am not sure if Dow could give a decent hint about Ccy's today.

But i think Gold will have a more significant impact.
.
Good point Nasir
  • #620
  • Apr 22, 2010 2:07am Apr 22, 2010 2:07am
Quoting neutro
That's a bit of a stretch... The segments (each shoulder and head) should be of equal length.

EG is at an interesting level. I'd go out on a limb and buy some near here (with small risk) and wait for a nice PA formation on daily. That would be nice.
Ok, I understand...though I was puishing it a bit lol...not very good at these types of patterns.

It is indeed and I agree with you on this
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