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Amyc Trade Journal

  • #121
  • Apr 19, 2010 11:17pm Apr 19, 2010 11:17pm
I have taken another aud short off 9284 if it doesn't come down from here though there is a good probability that it is going to 9314 and then probably 94. tight stops
Attached Image
  • #122
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:00am Apr 20, 2010 2:00am
Stopped myself out of all aud shorts at 9280, will wait for a more likely entry. 9314 maybe better.
-15 and +4 pips
  • #123
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:19am Apr 20, 2010 2:19am
Cable short order at 1.5360 got taken. SL 1.54 target 1.45.

Also added to EU shorts at 1.3477 stop 1.3480 for that contract.
I'm now holding 5 eu shorts ranging from 1.3550-1.3477, targeting 1.3255, 1.31 and 1.26.
  • #124
  • Edited 5:03am Apr 20, 2010 4:01am | Edited 5:03am
Cashed out of everthing except S&P shorts

cable -40
euro +50 +20 +20 -10

The dollar index is looking very bearish for now, I will reassess the situation when S&P futs get to 1200
  • #125
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:03pm Apr 20, 2010 6:03pm
EU is back down into the weekly lows at 1.3419-45, second touch this week should lead to a break down lower. I am still looking for the April lows to be hit at 1.3255 this month. Reentered shorts last night 20 at 1.3506 and 5 at 1.3492.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.GIF Size: 20 KB
  • #126
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:07pm Apr 20, 2010 6:07pm
S&P futs daily chart

Double top has completed at the weekly highs at 1208 and i think that wednesday it can start to fall quite hard for the rest of the week. I think there is a possibility that this market can fall 20-25% in the next 6 weeks, it just needs some more bad gs news to get the ball rolling.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: S&P.GIF Size: 23 KB
  • #127
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:09pm Apr 20, 2010 6:09pm
Quoting amyc
S&P futs daily chart

Double top has completed at the weekly highs at 1208 and i think that wednesday it can start to fall quite hard for the rest of the week. I think there is a possibility that this market can fall 20-25% in the next 6 weeks, it just needs some more bad gs news to get the ball rolling.
Taking A/U with it?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #128
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:10pm Apr 20, 2010 6:10pm
GU daily

Reentered the GU short at 1.5414, this is the april highs and the price i was looking for all month. I think that gu can fall a long way very quickly in the next few weeks. My first TP is 1.45.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.GIF Size: 20 KB
  • #129
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:13pm Apr 20, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Taking A/U with it?
thats the million dollar question, the charts for au point to higher prices but if the indicies come down then i guess au will move down as well. i am leaving it alone for now as there are much better shorts ie eu and gu.
What do you think?
  • #130
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:17pm Apr 20, 2010 6:17pm
Quoting amyc
thats the million dollar question, the charts for au point to higher prices but if the indicies come down then i guess au will move down as well. i am leaving it alone for now as there are much better shorts ie eu and gu.
What do you think?
I think A/U is out of steam and I also think the DXY will gain more strength. A/U hasn't been able to take out the November 09 highs in 6 months!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #131
  • Apr 20, 2010 6:21pm Apr 20, 2010 6:21pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I think A/U is out of steam and I also think the DXY will gain more strength. A/U hasn't been able to take out the November 09 highs in 6 months!
I think your right and if things become short term bearish it will probably fall off a cliff, i can see it going to 97 later this year though.
  • #132
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:41pm Apr 20, 2010 7:41pm
Hi Amy-Wondering where your cable s/loss is....how long do you think it will take for it to reach 1.45? How can you calculate time? Thanks.....Susan~
  • #133
  • Apr 20, 2010 8:00pm Apr 20, 2010 8:00pm
Quoting go4pips
Hi Amy-Wondering where your cable s/loss is....how long do you think it will take for it to reach 1.45? How can you calculate time? Thanks.....Susan~
Hi Susan

My SL was at 1.5440 when I first put the trade on but i will move it to BE soon. I think it should reach the 1.45-46 area sometime this quarter. The chart below is monthly and shows the breakout of Q1 lows then the retest of the break at 1.55, I think now it can move down into Q2 lows and then sometime this year into 1.38.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.GIF Size: 17 KB
  • #134
  • Apr 20, 2010 9:18pm Apr 20, 2010 9:18pm
I have closed out 15 of my 25 eu shorts at 1.3415 for +90 and +77 pips. Holding remaining 10 targeting 1.3255.
  • #135
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:55am Apr 21, 2010 12:55am
I have decided to have one last go at selling the aud this week, shorts taken at 9332. SL 9345. TP open for now.
  • #136
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:53am Apr 21, 2010 1:53am
Short EU at 1.3447 SL 1.3465 target 1.3370. 1.3447 is daily pp for gmt midnight.
  • #137
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:07pm Apr 21, 2010 5:07pm
Trade Update

EU, profit taken at 1.3370 +77 pips

AU still holding, stops moved to be. This trade shows potential to move down at least another 80 pips.

GU stopped at be
  • #138
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:57pm Apr 21, 2010 5:57pm
I have added to my aud shorts at 9278, in theory from here price should move down 80 pips.
Attached Image
  • #139
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:00pm Apr 21, 2010 6:00pm
Quoting amyc
I have added to my aud shorts at 9278, in theory from here price should move down 80 pips.
I too just added to my shorts but you really think 80 pips??
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #140
  • Apr 21, 2010 6:31pm Apr 21, 2010 6:31pm
Quoting MarcVUM
I too just added to my shorts but you really think 80 pips??
It doesn't have to happen all in one day, at the rate this pair moves lately it will probably take the rest of the week, but yes my charts say that bar should finish to the downside.

Also I suspect it may get a helping hand from the index markets on Thursday.
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