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  • #1,901
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:38pm Apr 20, 2010 12:38pm
Hi both,

You guys here did bright up this thread and the invisable man (Sho, is that you?) had to drop in and clear your queries.

Please keep on share your knowledge, most inexperience guys can learn a lot, even I'm a slow learner, I still can pick bit by bit from the Q&A through your discussion.

Cheers
City
  • #1,902
  • Apr 20, 2010 12:42pm Apr 20, 2010 12:42pm
Sho, what would happen if you put the butterfly under the boulder and let the little boy trim the top off the bag of gold?
  • #1,903
  • Apr 20, 2010 1:09pm Apr 20, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting Bankshot
Sho, what would happen if you put the butterfly under the boulder and let the little boy trim the top off the bag of gold?
that wud b doji formation on the supply level
  • #1,904
  • Apr 20, 2010 1:10pm Apr 20, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting trade price
hey Rob
pm me your email.

To all
one more story.

--------
A boy found a cocoon of a butterfly. One day a small opening appeared. He sat and watched the butterfly for several hours as it struggled to force its body through that little hole. Then it seemed to stop making any progress. It appeared as if it had gotten as far as it could, and it could go no further.
[b][color=#800000][font=Verdana][size=2]So the boy decided to help the butterfly. He took a pair of scissors and snipped...
Very profound indeed - we have a true master!
Also see we have a new home!!

Pardy
  • #1,905
  • Apr 20, 2010 1:22pm Apr 20, 2010 1:22pm
Alan,

The next PDF should be treated as intermediate level
Tks for your works
City

Quoting AlanOne
Hi All,

It looks as though for my next pdf compilation I will need to include a chapter called "Trade Price's Fables".

Anyway it looks as though we are starting to look at what is going on "behind" the charts and focus on the supply and demand levels that push and pull price action. Forexrook pointed me towards some of Sam Seidens webinars on FXStreet which deal exclusively with this subject and for anyone like me who is casting around for as much information as possible then its a big help. No doubt it will help us understand better...
  • #1,906
  • Apr 20, 2010 2:43pm Apr 20, 2010 2:43pm
  • #1,907
  • Apr 20, 2010 3:11pm Apr 20, 2010 3:11pm
poor butterfly
  • #1,908
  • Apr 20, 2010 7:43pm Apr 20, 2010 7:43pm
Quoting AlanOne
Hi All,

It looks as though for my next pdf compilation I will need to include a chapter called...
few days ago i posted a post talking ABOUT A GUY..that was sam i was talking about.if u understand him u will understand me as well.hey Alan u r inteligent.keep up ur good work.

here is the post .
Quoting trade price
i know a guy who allways talk about supply and demand.i know he is a very good trader.but guess what people find his subject is very boring.


can u guess why so many loser?

i respect this guy.he is a genuine trader.i can give u gurantee.

editeople likes when someone talk about a trading system or a indicator or trading robot.
but this is not real trading.
real trading is suppy and demand
  • #1,909
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:16am Apr 21, 2010 5:16am
Quoting priceaction
Hi Sho,...
Using today's chart, can you help me understand why the first few pins were not good signs to go short?...
Hello Rob,
if i may...
do u trade pins at their close (instead of below/above)? this is where the advice of 'trading pins above/below the high/low' helps, because this acts a confirmation that price got more momentum in favor of your trade.

the first pin at your pink S/D level --- u correctly pointed out that it's in an uptrend, so this failed pin is just a 'pause' in that trend. Supply/Demand-wise, price may have encountered more demand (more demand/buying came in) right at/below your pink S/D level, pushing price further up.

hopefully Sir Sho can chime in
  • #1,910
  • Apr 21, 2010 5:25am Apr 21, 2010 5:25am
Sho mailed me and said if I was interested I could explain a bit how I try to trade using my take so to speak
I have 5/21/65 sma on the chart the 21 equates to the 5 on the 60 min chart roughly they vary a bit according to pairs when viewing M15
I have found that price loves the m5 and will bounce off it regularly
I have also found to my cost that regardless of momentum (and am still trying ) dont trade against the 21 ma a good example this morning on eu/usd twice momentum was down and the set up was for short but if you look both times the 21 held price the stoch also gave divergence also implying favour for shorts
I also like to keep an eye on volume it can help determining change of direction
if in an uptrend volume is good and then there are several retrace bars on low vol it is a good indication that the market will probably continue in the original direction rather than reverse
volume can also be useful with hammers at tops/ bottoms which if on high volume can be a sign of impending change of direction ( Malcolmb thread good for vol analysis)
Chart a) shows eu with downward momentum break and retest of trendline but held by 21sma
Chart b) shows e/j inverted hammer on high volume possible impending reversal both charts with stoch divergence
Sho if anything needs comment or ammending please do
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a.gif Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: b.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #1,911
  • Apr 21, 2010 8:57am Apr 21, 2010 8:57am
Good post francis, interesting.
  • #1,912
  • Apr 21, 2010 11:51am Apr 21, 2010 11:51am
Quoting priceaction
Hi Sho,
Thanks for all your guidance.

I can read bars/candles and I can identify significant price levels using the 4hr & daily charts. And I can understand that you will enter your trades at these significant (supply & demand) levels. I also know you like fibs.

Do you only use the 15 min bars to judge whether price will plough through the significant level or get rejected? Or do you also use something else?

I have used your example chart to show what I mean.

Thanks in advance for any advice.

Rob
yes i use 15 min and price action.what at the moment heppening(what market is telling me).i wait for price to reject to go short.if momentum is possitive wait for break out and retrace for continuation trade.
see the chart.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sho2.gif Size: 22 KB




Quoting priceaction
Hi Sho,

Today with GBPUSD I believe we reached a supply & demand area. There were several pins which I see as a possible short entry sign.

The first few pins (against the trend) did not work and price broke up through my supply & demand zone. The second few pins (the first one against the trend) worked out.

Using today's chart, can you help me understand why the first few pins were not good signs to go short?

After everything below, I am in good profit today. But I could be in more profit if I understood more.

Many thanks
Rob
read this first than go read next chart and comment.i used numbers read one after another.its same gu 4 hour chart.then read next chart.

when price gap down or up.its normaly act as support and resistant.
because there was some orders in the market that made on the chart gap up or down.
when it will go to that level some more orders will come to that level(traders thinks that again some people will buy or sell(depend on previous move) at that level.and some of them will take bit of profits at that level.
institution will test the market with small orders at that level.is it gonna hold or break?
.if it breaks they add more orders to blast through that level.same with the stocks or any financial instrument..if u see the order book at that time u will know what institutions are up to.

now if its break it will act as opposite force.
why?the reason is it did break last time with lots of orders.trader will think this time again people will bid or offer at that level(depend on privious move was it impulsive or corrective).its human nature.if something works people does that again and again.when people enjoy something they allways love to do that again and again.specialy when trading its better than sex.its lot easier to stop having sex than trading.after sex u will take a break but trading its so hard to take a break when u r losing or making money unless ur decipline.
professional are clever they knows what peoples are up to.they knows human behaviours.they know normal retail traders wont be able to control the greed. amature will join at that level(will expect to make money). thats why they allways test the market before puting the actual size in the market.take the stops to fill their order.
institutinal stratagy is avaraging stratagy.price does not need go to exact supply and demand level to make profit .they make profit lot before their target level. and get out before the other people gets in.
thats why price makes trend line.and price retrace to fib level and bounced of.what that mean is institution is allready took some profit and now they are joining the other side of the previous move.or they are reducing their loads.they allways unload some of the orders at the significant demand or supply levels.there is allways some buyer or seller(depend on the previous move) waiting with some orders to get fill at that level.and some times when they take profits the trend reverse.(other forces join with them to reverse the trend.)
if its not clear dont worry.will explain later.
chart


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu for rob 4 hour.gif Size: 21 KB


momentum(speed) exceeds everything.(at least for me.)
first of all i said trade with the momentum ..momentum can break round number or anything in the way.momentum mean train is comeing 120mph(parabolic price move).u must go with the flow or stand back.

do u think it is possible to reverse a train while its going 120 mph.it just filled the gap with that move.if u see 4hour TF u will see what i mean.
when momentum is not with u dont trade at supply or demand level.stand back.
wait for momentum to stall or show a sign that train is stoping.(mean look for divergence).
institution creates those momentum moves.those are the moves heppen when big orders come to the market place.and all of the big boys sing together.this is where u will see parabolic moves.when they slowly start unloading their back pack(profit taking),now momentum get slow and divergence comes.and when they see other institutions are doing the same thing they flip the side and join the other side.and sometimes that profit talking becomes revarsal.

divergence shows when momentum is slowing.it tells us last train stop is near the corner.it does not mean jump in staight way.wait for divergence first (if u wanna go for against the trend) other wise no trade against the trend,look for revarsal candle formation with divergence to go opposite of last impulsive move.
momentum(speed) first everything else next.

its allways easy to trade the trend.so stick with the trend until u feel the market.(u r thinking how to feel?)
its the experience with the market.
than u can dance or sing with the market.only supply and demand level or candle is not enough to trade.if its easy than people could make money with EA.they will give the CEO possition to the ROBOT.
trust ur eyes.u said it was s a strong up trend.did u trust ur eyes?learn to trust ur eyes.there was few long entry.u did not take those and u did look for to reverse the train.trade with the flow.

my entry is based on 15m TF .higher time frame only for support or resistant.if its get there be carefull.it does not mean u have to go opposite.only take the revarsal when 15 in showing momentum is slowing and combine with the candle formation.and look for where it might get stuck.if no room to go .stay side line.
where u took the trade it was just at the middle of the battle field.see the 4hour for better view. trade with the winning force(current momentum) or back off.
see the chart both chart now 4hour and 15m..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: rob.jpg Size: 250 KB
  • #1,913
  • Edited 12:51pm Apr 21, 2010 12:11pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello Rob,
if i may...
do u trade pins at their close (instead of below/above)? this is where the advice of 'trading pins above/below the high/low' helps, because this acts a confirmation that price got more momentum in favor of your trade.



hopefully Sir Sho can chime in
hey SC nice to see u here.

what u said is absolutly right.
entry break of pin bar is good for confirmation continuation momentum.its more conservative approch.u will have a higher hit rate.any one can try that.every one is diffrent.any one can do whats suits u.it doesnot have to be same as me.

BUT my entry is lot before the break out.i am an agrressive player.i do stoped out so many times.if bar is large i wait for 50% retrace at the next bar.if its small i enter at the close i dont like entering at the breakout.because when day trading if break out occuers price moves very fast and sometimes u will get filled miles away.and stop is bigger if u put the stop in the safe zone(i mean just above pin bar).
with 50% retrace entry my stop is half the size of breakout traders.so i can be wrong 2 times and will lose same as breakout traders .if they lose once their loss will same as me.and profit wise my entry is early so my profit will be bigger than breakout traders.
see this post guys u will get bit more idea that what i am saying. #357
so do whats suits u guys.experiment what works for u.keep doing what makes u money.get rid of what does not.remember i am too aggressive player.dont go aggresive like me.
  • #1,914
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:23pm Apr 21, 2010 12:23pm
Hi sho,

I think I more or less understood what you presented above. One thing caught my attention though. You mentioned that looking at order flow you can understand the price movement better. I may side tracked a little here, specific to stock where I have seen the order book before, my experience is that they are as much of a coin flip as the typical technical indicator. How can looking at the order book be of any advantage ? The order flow is at best confirms your PA analysis just like a technical indicator.

Why I asked is that, I've worked with a dealer briefly, she is a consistent loser, and her most consistent problem is the order book. Its only until later where she dump those analysis and start trading from a naked bar chart had things started to improve.

Another thing I would like to ask you, since you do equalities as well, do you look for correlation ? Eg nikkei vs the yen

regards

PS : it would be great if you could shed more light on how you analyze your waves. Do you just look for the basic N shape price structure (the way I do) or do you do that Elliot wave thingy ?
  • #1,915
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:28pm Apr 21, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting francis2
Sho mailed me and said if I was interested I could explain a bit how I try to trade using my take so to speak
I have 5/21/65 sma on the chart the 21 equates to the 5 on the 60 min chart roughly they vary a bit according to pairs when viewing...
hey francis
thanks
i told u to post here so some people can get something out of your style and they can add their arsenal.
keep doing buddy what works for u.
like i said before u can use any thing as long as u trust ur eyes and make money.
yes i do use volume when i trade stocks not FX because its not centralised.but still its good .
and please help each others whenever u can.god will help u .

happy trading to all of u
sho
  • #1,916
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:33pm Apr 21, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello Rob,
if i may...
do u trade pins at their close (instead of below/above)? this is where the advice of 'trading pins above/below the high/low' helps, because this acts a confirmation that price got more momentum in favor of your trade.

the first pin at your pink S/D level --- u correctly pointed out that it's in an uptrend, so this failed pin is just a 'pause' in that trend. Supply/Demand-wise, price may have encountered more demand (more demand/buying came in) right at/below your pink S/D level, pushing price further up.

hopefully...
Hi SC,

Thanks for your thoughts on that chart. I shall look closer at my style on entry for pins. I can see (by the time I am replying to this) that Sho has also commented on that.

Again, much appreciated.
Rob
  • #1,917
  • Edited 12:51pm Apr 21, 2010 12:43pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Hi sho,

I think I more or less understood what you presented above. One thing caught my attention though. You mentioned that looking at order flow you can understand the price movement better. I may side tracked a little here, specific to stock where I have seen the order book before, my experience is that they are as much of a coin flip as the typical technical indicator. How can looking at the order book be of any advantage ? The order flow is at best confirms your PA analysis just like a technical indicator.

Why I asked is that, I've worked...
no its not .
u have to know how to use it.this is where skills comes into play.i used to work for a broker as well.
u have to know how to read the order book and how to apply in ur trading.

if u give a butcher knife to someone and u told him use it where it needed( use wisely) and if he cuts his gender off whos fault?
knifs or his or the man who gave him the knife?

its allways easy to blame any indicator or methood.it takes years too master.

yes i allways keep an eye and ear open for news and corlation but not too much attention to those stuff.
if u read the thread u will find how i read the counts.


happy trading
sho
  • #1,918
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:47pm Apr 21, 2010 12:47pm
If not already discovered, here are 2 good write ups on PINs...

Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Pin bars-introduction.pdf   175 KB | 718 downloads


Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Pin bars-advanced.pdf   113 KB | 717 downloads


another way to determined the strength of the pin is to look at the price action of closely related pairs.
  • #1,919
  • Apr 21, 2010 12:52pm Apr 21, 2010 12:52pm
Quoting trade price
no its not u have to know how to use it.this is where skils comes into play.i used to work for a broker as well.
u have to know how to read the order book and how to aplly in ur trading.

[b]if u give a butcher knife to...
LOL...maybe I got sucked into the order flow thing of late. Anyway just trying to get a sense of where you come from in your analysis. Now I get a better idea.

I've never worked in broker firm before, just happened to know some of them personally. I come from 100% retail side of things.

regards
  • #1,920
  • Apr 21, 2010 1:11pm Apr 21, 2010 1:11pm
Quoting trade price
yes i use 15 min and price action.what at the moment heppening(what market is telling me).i wait for price to reject to go short.if momentum is possitive wait for break out and retrace for continuation trade.
see the chart.

Attachment




read this first than go read next chart and comment.i used numbers read one after another.its same gu 4 hour chart.then read next chart.

when price gap down or up.its normaly act as support and resistant.
because there was some orders in the market that made on the chart gap up or down.
when it will...
Thanks Sho theres a lot to learn
In the bottom chart of gbp supplied by priceaction there were two buying opportunities you marked before the top pin bar with divergence
these two were right under the round number do we take these set ups anyway or pass on them thanks
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